Chapter 2 and 3

Forecasting
Advanced Forecasting

Operations Analysis
Using MS Excel 1
 Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of extrapolating the past
into the future
Forecasting is something that organization have to
do if they are to plan for future. Many forecasts
attempt to use past data in order to identify short,
medium or long term trends, and to use these
patterns to project the current position into the
future.
Backcasting: method of evaluating forecasting
techniques by applying them to historical data and
comparing the forecast to the actual data.
2
 Demand Forecast A Deviation A
Jan 11.8 7.1 4.7
Feb 6.3 11.8 5.5
Mar 9.5 6.3 3.2
Apr 5.3 9.5 4.2
May 10.1 5.3 4.8
Jun 7 10.1 3.1
Jul 11.3 7 4.3
Aug 7.3 11.3 4
Sep 9.5 7.3 2.2
Oct 5 9.5 4.5
Nov 10.7 5 5.7
Dec 6 10.7 4.7
Jan 6 6

5
D e v i a tio n s

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
3
 Forecasting
Why Forecasting?

Some Characteristics of Forecasts

– Forecasts are seldom (hardly) perfect
– Product family and aggregated forecasts are more
accurate than individual product forecasts

Assumptions of Forecasting Models

– Information (data) about the past should be available
– The pattern of the past will continue into the future

4
 Steps to Forecasting
• Starts with gathering and recording information about the
situation.
• Enter the data into a worksheet or any other business
analysis tool
• Creation of graphs
• Examine the data and the graphs visually to get some
understanding of the situation (judgmental phase)
• Developing hypotheses and models
• Try for alternative forecasting approaches and do ‘what-
if’ analysis to check if the resulting forecast fits the data
5
 Evaluation of Forecasting Model
To judge how well a forecasting model fit the past
observation, both precision and bias must be
considered.
Measuring the precision of a forecasting model:
There are three possible measures used to evaluate
precision of forecasting systems, each of them is
based on the error or deviation between the
forecasted and actual values: MAD, MSE, MAPE

6
 Evaluation of Forecasting Model
Mean Absolute Deviation - MAD

No direct Excel function to calculate MAD

Excel: =ABS(AVERAGE (error range))

Period Demand Forecast Absolute

deviation
1 33 36 3 ABS(C2-B2)
2 37 29 8 ABS(C3-B4)
3 32 41 9 ABS(C4-B4)
4 35 30 5 ABS(C5-B4)
6.25 AVERAGE(E2:E5)

7
 Evaluation of Forecasting Model
Mean Square Error - MSE

Excel: =SQRT(SUM(error range)/COUNT(error

range))
Period Demand Forecast Squared
Deviation
1 33 36 9 (C2-B2)^2
2 37 29 64 (C3-B3)^2
3 32 41 81 (C4-B4)^2
4 35 30 25 (C5-B5)^2
6.68954 SQRT(AVERAGE(E2:E5))

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8
Evaluation of Forecasting Model
Mean Absolute Percentage Error - MAPE

Period Demand Forecast Squared

Deviation
1 33 36 9.09% ABS((C2-B2)/B2)
2 37 29 21.62% ABS((C3-B3)/B3)
3 32 41 28.13% ABS((C4-B4)/B4)
4 35 30 14.29% ABS((C5-B5)/B5)
18.28% AVERAGE(E2:E5)

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9
 Which of the measure of forecast
accuracy should be used?
 The most popular measures are MAD and MSE.
 The problem with the MAD is that it varies according
to how big the number are.
 MSE is preferred because it is supported by theory,
and because of its computational efficiency.
 MAPE is not often used.
 In general, the lower the error measure (BIAS, MAD,
MSE) or the higher the R2, the better the forecasting
model 10
 Good Fit – Bad Forecast

As it was discussed previously that neither MAD

nor MSE gives an accurate indication of the validity
of a forecast model. Thus, judgment must be used.
Raw data sample should always be subjected to
managerial judgment and analysis before formal
quantitative techniques can be applied.

11
a- Outlier
Outlier may result from simple data entry errors. or
sometime the data may be correct but can be considered as
atypical observed values.
Outlier may occur for example in time periods when the
product was just introduced or about to be phased out.
So experienced analyst are well aware that raw data sample
may not be clear.
Demand data with an outlier
100
90

P
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J an Feb

12
 b- Causal data adjustment
Cause-and-effect relationships should be examined before applying
any quantitative analysis on the historical data sample.
Examples of causes that may affect the patterns in data sample :
1- The data sample before a particular year may not be applicable
because:
- Economic conditions have changed
- The product line was changed
2- Data for a particular year may not be applicable because:
- There was an extraordinary marketing effort
- A natural disaster prevented demand from occurring

13
 c- Illusory (misleading) patterns

The meaning of a “good fit” is subjective to the

manager’s interpretation of the forecasting model.
So before a forecast is accepted for action,
quantitative techniques must be augmented by such
judgmental approaches as decision conferencing and
expert consultations.

14
To prepare a valid forecast, the following factors
that influence the forecasting model should be
examined:
- Company actions
- Competitors actions
- Industry demand
- Market share
- Company sales
- Company costs
- Environmental factors

15
 Forecasting Approaches
1- Qualitative Forecasting
Forecasting based on experience, judgment, and
knowledge. Used when situation is vague and little
data exists. Example: new products and new
technology

2- Quantitative Forecasting
Forecasting based on data and models. Used when
situation is ‘stable’ and historical data exist. Example:
existing product, current technology

16
 Forecasting Approaches
Judgmental/Qualitative Quantitative models

Market survey
Time Series Causal
Expert opinion
Decision conferencing Moving average Regression
Exponential smoothing Curve fitting
Data cleaning
Trend projection Econometric
Data adjustment
Seasonal indexes
Environmental factors

17
 Quantitative Forecasting

Time Series Models:

Sales1999
Year 2000
Sales1998 Time Series
Sales
Sales1997 Model
……

Casual Models:
Price
Population
Causal Year 2000
Model Sales
Advertising
……

18
 Time Series Forecasting
Is based on the hypothesis that the future can be
predicted by analyzing historical data samples.

– Assumes that factors influencing past and present will

continue influence in future.
– Obtained by observing response variable at regular
time periods.

19
 Time series model
The Time series model can be also classified as
Forecasting directly from the data value
• Moving average
• Weighted moving average
• Exponential smoothing
Forecasting by identifying patterns in the past
• Trend projection
• Seasonal influences
• Cyclical influences
20
 Forecasting directly from the data value
1- Moving Average Method
- The forecast is the mean of the last n observation. The
choice of n is up to the manager making the forecast
- If n is too large then the forecast is slow to respond to
change
- If n is too small then the forecast will be over-influenced by
chance variations
-This approach can be used where a large number of
forecasting needed to be made quickly, for example in a
stock control system where next week’s demand for every
item needs to be forecast

21
Month Demand Moving
Average
Forecast
Oct 6
Nov 5
Dec 5
Jan 1.63 5.33 AVERAGE(B3:B5)
Feb 1.95 3.88 AVERAGE(B4:B6)
Mar 7.5 2.86 AVERAGE(B5:B7)
Apr 2.49 3.69 AVERAGE(B6:B8)
May 6.18 3.98 AVERAGE(B7:B9)
Jun 9.18 5.39 =
Jul 12
5.24 5.95
Demand =
10
Aug 8
8.3 6.87 =
Sep 6 2.72 7.57 =
Oct 4 7.43 5.42 =
Nov 2
7.49 Forecast
6.15 =
0
Dec 1 9.58
2 3 4 5 6 7 5.88
8 9
=
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Jan 8.02 8.17 = 22

Longer-period moving averages (larger n) react to actual
changes more slowly

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 2- Weighted Moving Average

When using a moving average method described before, each

of the observations used to compute the forecasted value is
weighted equally.
In certain cases, it might be beneficial to put more weight on
the observations that are closer to the time period being
forecast. When this is done, this is known as a weighted
moving average technique. The weights in a weighted MA
must sum to 1.

Weighted MA(3) = Ft+1 = wt1(Dt) + wt2(Dt-1) + wt3(Dt-2)

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 2- Weighted Moving Average

n=3
F4 = ((w1* d1)+(w2 * d2)+ (w3 * d3))/(w1 + w2 + w3)
Where w1, w2, w3 are weights and d1, d2 & d3 are
demands.
Many books on forecasting state that the sum of weights
(w1+w2+w3) must be equal to 1.

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25
 3- Exponential Smoothing
• The exponential smoothing techniques gives weight to all past
observations, in such a way that the most recent observation
has the most influence on the forecast, and the older
observation always has the less influence on the forecast.
• It is only necessary to store two values the last actual
observation and the last forecast.
• Smoothing constant () is the proportion of the difference
between the actual value and the forecast.
• The value of the smoothing constant () is needed to be
included in the model in order to make the next period’s
forecast.

Exponential Smoothing can be calculated

using the following formula:
F2 = *D1 +(1- )*F1
26
 3- Exponential Smoothing

• Smoothing constant () must set between 0 and 1. Normally

the value of the smoothing constant is chosen to lie in the
range 0.1 to 0.3.
• Typically, a value closer to 0 is used for forecasting demand
that is changing slowly, however, value closer to 1 is used for
forecasting demand that is changing more rapidly.
• There is no way to calculate F1 because each forecast is based
on the previous forecasts.

27
 3- Exponential Smoothing

How to select smoothing constant 

• Sensitivity analysis is an analysis used to test how
sensitive the the forecast is to the change in alpha or
smoothing constant.
• A general rule for selecting alpha is to perform scenario
analysis and pick the value that produces a reasonable
value for the MAD and a forecast that is reasonably close
to the actual demand.

28
 4- Trend – Adjusted Exponential Smoothing

With trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend is calculated and

included in the forecast. This allows the forecast to be smoothed
without losing the trend.
Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing requires two parameters: the
alpha value used by exponential smoothing and the beta value used to
control how the trend component enters the model. Both values must
be between 0 and 1.
Fit1= F1 + T1
The formula to calculate the forecast component is :
F2 = Fit1+ *(D1-Fit1)
The formula to calculate the trend component is
T2 = T1 +  *  *(D1-Fit1)
29
 Alpha = 0.5 Beta= 0.2
Forecast
Including
Period De mand Trend Forecast Trend
1 4 4.00 3.50 0.50
2 2 4.50 4.00 0.50
3 7 3.50 3.25 0.25
4 23 5.85 5.25 0.60
5 32 16.74 14.43 2.32
6 33 28.21 24.37 3.84
7 34 34.93 30.61 4.32
8 33 38.69 34.46 4.23
9 48 39.50 35.85 3.66
10 50 48.26 43.75 4.51
11 61 53.81 49.13 4.68
12 67 62.81 57.41 5.40
13 67 70.72 64.90 5.82
14 62 74.31 68.86 5.45
15 78 72.37 120
68.15 4.22
16 85 79.97 100
75.19 4.78
Demand
17 92 87.77 82.48 5.28
18 90 95.59 80
89.88 5.71
19 94 97.94 60
92.79 5.15
20 100 100.72 95.97 4.75
40
20 Forecast
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

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30
Time series data are usually considered to consist of six component :
1. Average demand: is simply the long-term mean demand
2. Trend component : long term overall up or down movement. Changes due
to population, technology, age, culture, etc. Typically several years duration.

3. Autocorrelation: is simply a statement that demand next period is related

to demand this period

4. Seasonal component: periodic pattern of up and down fluctuations

repeating every year. It is that portion of demand that follows a short-term
pattern. Occurs within a single year

5. Cyclical component: is much like the seasonal component, only its period
is much longer. Affected by business cycle, political, and economic factors.

6. Random component: random movements that follow no pattern. Due to

unforeseen events. Short duration and non-repeating

31
Components of A Time Series Model

Trend Cycle

Random
movement
Time Time

Seasonal Trend with

pattern seasonal pattern

Demand
Time Time
32
Forecasting by identifying patterns in the past
Cyclical and Seasonal Issues
Seasonal Decomposition of Time Series Data

There are two types of seasonal variation:

Additive seasonal variation :

Occurs when the seasonal effects are the same regardless of
the trend.

Multiplication seasonal variation :

Occurs when the seasonal effects vary with the trend effects.
It’s the most common type of seasonal variation
33
 Cyclical and Seasonal Issues
Computing Multiplicative Seasonal Indices
1. Computing seasonal indices requires data that match the seasonal
period. If the seasonal period is monthly, then monthly data are
required. A quarterly seasonal period requires quarterly data.
2. Calculate the centered moving averages (CMAs) whose length matches
the seasonal cycle. The seasonal cycle is the time required for one cycle
to be completed. Quarterly seasonality requires a 4-period moving
average, monthly seasonality requires a 12-period moving average and
so on.
3. Determine the Seasonal-Irregular Factors or components. This can be
done by dividing the raw data by the corresponding depersonalized
value.
4. Determine the average seasonal factors. In this step the random and
cyclical components will be eliminated by averaging them.
5. Estimate next year’s total demand
6. Divide this estimate of total demand by the number of seasons, then
34
multiply it by the seasonal index for that season
 Cyclical and Seasonal Issues
Computing Multiplicative Seasonal Indices
Step 1 Seasonal
Four Period Irregular Seasonal
Quarter Data Moving Average Component Index
1 560 Step 4
2 990 1,100 0.90000 0.87364 =AVERAGE(D3,D7,D11,D15,D19,D23)
3 1,740 1,120 1.55357 1.64072 =AVERAGE(D4,D8,D12,D16,D20)
4 1,110 1,088 1.02069 0.90893 =AVERAGE(D5,D9,D13,D17,D21)
1 640 1,133 0.56512 0.53825 =AVERAGE(D6,D10,D14,D18,D22)
2 860 1,080 0.79630
3 1,920 1,090 1.76147
4 900 1,150 0.78261
1 680 1,163 0.58495
2 1,100 1,190 0.92437 Step 2
3 1,970 1,198 1.64509
= AVERAGE(B2:B5)
4 1,010 1,198 0.84342
1 710 1,263 0.56238
2 1,100 1,313 0.83810
3 2,230 1,275 1.74902 Step 3
4 1,210 1,363 0.88807
1 560 1,393 0.40215 = B3/C3
2 1,450 1,475 0.98305
3 2,350 1,573 1.49444
4 1,540 1,525 1.00984
1 950 1,648 0.57663
2 1,260 1,575 0.80000
3 2,840
4 1,250 35
 Cyclical and Seasonal Issues
Using Seasonal Indices to Forecast
To forecast using seasonal indices
1- Compute the forecast using annual values. Any forecasting techniques
can be used.
2- Use the seasonal indices to share out the annual forecast by periods
Forecast
Including
Year Data Trend Forecast Trend MAD
1 4,400 4,125 4,000 125 275 Alpha 0.6
2 4,320 4,498 4,290 208 178 Delta 0.5
3 4,760 4,545 4,391 154 215 MAD 269
4 5,250 4,893 4,674 219 357
5 5,900 5,433 5,107 326 467
6 6,300 6,179 5,713 466 121
7 6,754 6,252 502
7 6,754 1 912 Q1 0.54
2 1469 Q2 0.87
3 2769 Q3 1.64 36
4 1537 Q4 0.91
 Cause-and-Effect Relationships
- Causal forecasting seeks to identify specific cause-effect relationships
that will influence the pattern of future data. Causes appear as
independent variables, and effects as dependent, response variables in
forecasting models.
Independent variable Dependent, response variable
Price demand
Decrease in population decrease in demand
Number of teenager demand for jeans
- Causal relationships exist even when there is no specific time series
aspect involved.
- The most common technique used in causal modeling is least squares
regression.
37
 Linear Trend analysis
85 It is noticed from
75 this figure that
65
there is a growth
D2 D3 trend influencing
55
D1 the demand, which
45 should be
0 1 2 3 4
extrapolated into
the future.
85
P1=80
75

65 P2=68
D2
55 D3
D1
45
0 1 2 3 4

38
 Linear Trend analysis

The linear trend model or sloping line rather than horizontal line.
The forecasting equation for the linear trend model is

Y = +X or Y = a + bX

Where X is the time index (independent variable). The

parameters alpha and beta ( a and b) (the “intercept” and “slope”
of the trend line) are usually estimated via a simple regression in
which Y is the dependent variable and the time index t is the
independent variable.

39
 Linear Trend analysis
Forecasting using three data items

Current
Intercept: 42
Current
Slope: 8

Straight Line Squared

Using a data table (what if analysis )
Period Demand Forecast Deviaton to determine the best-fitting straight
1 50 50 0
2 60 58 4
line with the lowest MSE
3 64 66 4

Sums of
Squares: 8
MSE: 1.63

Table of MSE
Slope
1.632993 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
38 12.33 10.23 8.16 6.16 4.32 2.94 2.83
40 10.39 8.29 6.22 4.24 2.58 2.16 3.46
42 8.49 6.38 4.32 2.45 1.63 2.94 4.90
Intercept 44 6.63 4.55 2.58 1.41 2.58 4.55 6.63
46 4.90 2.94 1.63 2.45 4.32 6.38 8.49
48 3.46 2.16 2.58 4.24 6.22 8.29 10.39
50 2.83 2.94 4.32 6.16 8.16 10.23 12.33
52 3.46 4.55 6.22 8.12 10.13 12.19 14.28
40
 Linear Trend analysis
Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Regression analysis is a statistical method of taking one or more
variable called independent or predictor variable- and developing
a mathematical equation that show how they relate to the value
of a single variable- called the dependent variable.
Regression analysis applies least-squares analysis to find the best-
fitting line, where best is defined as minimizing the mean square
error (MSE) between the historical sample and the calculated
forecast.
Regression analysis is one of the tools provided by Excel.

41
 Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Quarters Demand SUMMARY OUTPUT
1 1 3.47
2 4 3.12 Regression Statistics
3 9 3.97 Multiple R 0.866
4 16 4.50 R Square 0.749
5 25 4.06 Adjusted R Square 0.738
6 36 6.90 Standard Error 1.986
7 49 3.60 Observations 24
8 64 6.47
9 81 4.27 ANOVA
10 100 5.24 df SS MS F Significance F
11 121 6.39 Regression 1 259.031 259.031 65.691 0.000
12 144 5.45 Residual 22 86.750 3.943
13 169 5.88 Total 23 345.782
14 196 8.99
15 225 4.12 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
16 256 6.68 Intercept 1.495 0.837 1.787 0.088 -0.240 3.231
17 289 9.44 Quarters 0.475 0.059 8.105 0.000 0.353 0.596
18 324 7.75
19 361 9.91
Intercept
20 400 9.14 Slope
21 441 14.25
22 484 14.89
23 529 14.22
42
24 576 15.56
 Fitted
Quarters Demand Demand Difference
1 3.47 1.97 2.24 Intercept 1.495
2 3.12 2.45 0.45 Slope 0.475
3 3.97 2.92 1.11 MSE 1.901
4 4.50 3.40 1.23
5 4.06 3.87 0.04
6 6.90 4.35 6.54
7 3.60 4.82 1.48 20.00
8 6.47 5.30 1.39
9 4.27 5.77 2.26 15.00
10 5.24 6.25 1.01 10.00
11 6.39 6.72 0.11
12 5.45 7.20 3.03 5.00
13 5.88 7.67 3.22
0.00
14 8.99 8.15 0.71
15 4.12 8.62 20.25 1 5 9 13 17 21 25
16 6.68 9.10 5.83
17 9.44 9.57 0.02
18 7.75 10.05 5.26
19 9.91 10.52 0.38
20 9.14 11.00 3.45
21 14.25 11.47 7.74
22 14.89 11.95 8.70
23 14.22 12.42 3.24
24 15.56 12.90 7.09
25 13.37
26 13.85
27 14.32
43
28 14.80
 Linear Trend analysis
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

Simple linear regression analysis use one variable

(quarter number) as the independent variable in order to
predict the future value. In many situations, it is
advantageous to use more than one independent variable
in a forecast.

44
 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
Hours Number of
Before Computer
Breakdown Age Controls
Two factors that control the
205 59 1 frequency of breakdown. So they
236 48 1
260 25 0
are the independent variables.
176 39 0
245 20 1 Y = a + bX1 + cX2
123 66 2
176 40 0
150 62 0
148 70 0
265 20 0
200 52 1
45 75 0
110
216
75
25
0
0
Intercept Slope 1
176 63 1
90
176
75
69
0
2 Slope2
112 65 0
230 30 0
280 23 1

45
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.905
R Square 0.818
Adjusted R Square 0.797
Standard Error 28.651
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 62,920.044 31,460.022 38.325 0.000
Residual 17 13,954.906 820.877
Total 19 76,874.950

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 308.451 17.552 17.573 0.000 271.419 345.484
Age -2.800 0.325 -8.622 0.000 -3.485 -2.115
No of Computer Controls 25.232 9.631 2.620 0.018 4.912 45.551
Intercept Slope 1
Slope 2

46
 Hours Number of
Before Computer Hours to
Breakdown Age Controls Breakdown Difference
205 59 1 169 1332 Intercept 308.451
236 48 1 199 1347 Age -2.800
260 25 0 238 464 No of Computer Controls 25.232
176 39 0 199 541 MSE 26.41487
245 20 1 278 1069
123 66 2 174 2616
176 40 0 196 419 300

150 62 0 135 229 250

148 70 0 112 1261 200

265 20 0 252 157 150

200 52 1 188 141 100

45 75 0 98 2861 50

110 75 0 98 133 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
216 25 0 238 505
176 63 1 157 349
90 75 0 98 72
176 69 2 166 105
112 65 0 126 210
230 30 0 224 31
280 23 1 269 115
47
 Linear Trend analysis
Quadratic Regression Analysis

Quadratic regression analysis fits a second-order curve of the

form
Y = a + bX + cX2
Quadratic regression is prepared by adding the squared value
of the time periods. The coefficients in the quadratic formula
are calculated again using regression, where time periods and
the squared time periods are the independent variables and
the demand remains the dependent variable.

48
 Quadratic Regression Analysis
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.927
R Square 0.859
Adjusted R Square 0.846
Standard Error 1.524
Observations 24

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 297.037 148.518 63.984 0.000
Residual 21 48.745 2.321
Total 23 345.782

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 4.685 1.017 4.609 0.000 2.571 6.799 6.799
Quarters -0.261 0.187 -1.395 0.178 -0.651 0.128 0.128
Quarters Squared 0.029 0.007 4.046 0.001 0.014 0.045 0.045

49
 Quadratic Regression Analysis
Quarters Fitted
Quarters Squared Demand Demand Difference
1 1 3.47 3.52 0.00 Intercept 3.500
2 4 3.12 3.58 0.21 Slope 1 0.000
3 9 3.97 3.67 0.09 Slope 2 0.019
4 16 4.50 3.80 0.49 MSE 1.494
5 25 4.06 3.98 0.01
6 36 6.90 4.18 7.39
7 49 3.60 4.43 0.69 20.00
8 64 6.47 4.72 3.09 Forecast
15.00
9 81 4.27 5.04 0.60
10 100 5.24 5.40 0.03 10.00
11 121 6.39 5.80 0.35
12 144 5.45 6.24 0.61 5.00
13 169 5.88 6.71 0.70 Demand
0.00
14 196 8.99 7.22 3.10

10

16

19

22
13

25

28
1

7
15 225 4.12 7.78 13.36
16 256 6.68 8.36 2.83
17 289 9.44 8.99 0.20
18 324 7.75 9.66 3.63
19 361 9.91 10.36 0.20
20 400 9.14 11.10 3.85
21 441 14.25 11.88 5.63
22 484 14.89 12.70 4.83
23 529 14.22 13.55 0.45
24 576 15.56 14.44 1.24
25 625 15.38
26 676 16.34
27 729 17.35
28 784 18.40
50