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12
CHAPTER
Earnings Persistence
Recasting and Adjusting
Objectives of Recasting
*Statutory federal tax rate is 34% in Year 8 through Year 11, 45% in Year 7, and 46% in Year 6.
†
This amount is not disclosed for Year 6.
(a)
We assume most depreciation is included in cost of products sold.
(b)
LIFO liquidation gain before tax. For example, for Year 8 this is $2.58 million, computed as $1.7/(1 0.34).
(c)
$339.1 22 0.34 = $115.3.
(d)
$343.0 22 0.34 = $116.6
(e)
$179.4 26 0.565 136 = $101.4.
(f)
$106.5 26 0.487 136 = $51.9.
Earnings Persistence
Recasting and Adjusting -- Illustration
Objective
Objectiveof
ofAdjusting
Adjusting
Assign
Assign earnings
earnings components
components to
to periods
periods where
where they
they
most
most properly
properlybelong
belong
Note:
Note: Uses
Uses data
data from
from recast
recast income
income statements
statements and
and
any
anyother
otherrelevant
relevant information
information
Earnings Persistence
Recasting and Adjusting
General
GeneralAdjusting
AdjustingProcedures
Procedures
All
All earnings
earningscomponents
componentsmust must be
beconsidered
considered
When
When aa component
component is is excluded
excluded from
from the
the period
period when
when
reported,
reported, then then
1.
1. Shift
Shift itit (net
(net of
of tax)
tax) to
to the
the operating
operating results
results ofof one
one or
or
more
morepriorprior periods,
periods, or or
2.
2. Spread
Spread (average)
(average) itit over
over earnings
earnings for
for the
the period
period
under
under analysis
analysis
Note:
Note:Only
Onlyspread
spreaditems
itemsover
overprior
prior
earnings
earningswhen
whenthey
theycannot
cannotbebe
identified
identifiedwith
withspecific
specificperiods
periods
Earnings Persistence
Recasting and Adjusting
Specific
Specific(Typical)
(Typical)Adjusting
AdjustingProcedures
Procedures
•• Assign
Assign extraordinary
extraordinary and and unusual
unusual items
items (net
(net ofof tax)
tax) to
to
applicable
applicableyears
years
•• Tax
Taxbenefit
benefitof
ofcarryforwards
carryforwardsnormally
normallymoved
movedto tothe
theloss
loss year
year
•• Costs
Costs oror benefits
benefits from
from lawsuit
lawsuit settlements
settlements moved
moved to to
relevant
relevantprior
prioryears
years
•• Gains
Gains and
and losses
losses from
from disposals
disposals of of discontinued
discontinued
operations
operations usually
usually relate
relate toto operating
operating results
results of
of several
several prior
prior
years
years
•• Changes
Changesin inaccounting
accountingprinciples
principlesor or
estimates
estimatesyield
yieldadjustments
adjustmentsto toall
all
years
yearsunder
underanalysis
analysisto toaacomparable
comparable
basis—redistribute
basis—redistribute“cumulative
“cumulativeeffect”
effect”
to
tothe
therelevant
relevantprior
prioryears
years
•• Normally
Normallyinclude
includeitems
itemsthatthatincrease
increaseor ordecrease
decreaseequity
equity
Earnings Persistence
Recasting and Adjusting
Campbell Soup Company
Adjusted Income Statements ($ mil.)
Year 11 Year 10 Year 9 Year 8 Year 7 Year 6 Total
Net income as reported $ 401.5 $ 4.4 $ 13.1 $ 274.1 $ 247.3 $223.2 $ 1,163.6
Divestitures, restructuring & unusual charges
339.1 343.0 40.6
Tax effect of divestitures, restructuring, etc.
(13.9) (64.7) (13.9)
Gain on sale of businesses (Yr 8) and sale of
subsidiary (Yr 7), net of tax (3.1) (9.7)
Loss on sale of exercise equipment subsidiary 1.7
ANC transaction (4.5)
LIFO liquidation gain (1.7) (2.8) (1.4)
Cumulative effect of change in acctg for taxes (32.5)
Adjusted net income $ 401.5 $329.6 $291.4 $ 263.5 $ 232.0 $221.8
Total net income for the period $ 1,739.8
Average earnings for the period $
289.97
Earnings Persistence
Determinants of Persistence
Earnings
Earningspersistence
persistencedetermined
determinedby
bymany
many
factors
factorsincluding:
including:
··Earnings
Earningsvariability
variability
··Earnings
Earningstrend
trend
··Earnings
Earningsstability
stability
··Earnings
Earningspredictability
predictability
··Earnings
EarningsManagement
Management
··Management
ManagementIncentives
Incentives
Note:
Note:Assess
Assess earnings
earnings persistence
persistence over
over both
both the
the business
business
cycle
cycleand
andthe
thelong
longterm
term
Earnings Persistence
Measuring Persistence
Earnings
Earningsvariability
variabilitycan
canbe
bemeasured:
measured:
1.
1.Standard
Standardvariability
variabilitymeasures
measures
2.
2.Average
Average earnings--typically
earnings--typically using
using 55 to
to 10
10
years
yearsof
of data
data
3.
3.Minimum
Minimumearnings--typically
earnings--typicallyselected
selectedfrom
from
the
themost
most recent
recent business
business cycle,
cycle, reflecting
reflecting aa
worst-case
worst-casescenario
scenario
Earnings Persistence
Measuring Persistence
Earnings
Earnings Trend
Trend can
can be
be measured:
measured:
1.
1.Statistical
Statistical methods
methods
2.
2.Trend
Trendstatements
statements(such
(suchas
asIndex
Indexnumbers)
numbers)
Earnings Persistence
Measuring Persistence
Earnings
EarningsManagement
Management is is reflected
reflectedas
as follows:
follows:
•• Changes
Changesin inaccounting
accounting
methods
methodsor orassumptions
assumptions
•• Offsetting
Offsettingextraordinary
extraordinary
/unusual
/unusual gains
gainsand
and
losses
losses
•• Big
Bigbaths
baths
•• Write-downs
Write-downs
•• Timing
Timingrevenue
revenueand
andexpense
expenserecognition
recognition
•• Aggressive
Aggressiveaccounting
accountingapplications
applications
Earnings Persistence
Measuring Persistence
Management
Management Incentives
Incentivesaffecting
affectingpersistence
persistenceinclude:
include:
Personal
Personalobjectives
objectivesandandinterests
interests
Companies
Companies inindistress
distress
Prosperous
Prosperouscompanies—preserving
companies—preserving
hard
hard‑‑earned
earned reputations
reputations
Compensation
Compensation plans
plans
Accounting-based
Accounting-based incentives
incentives and
and constraints
constraints
Analysts
Analyststargets
targets
Earnings Persistence
Measuring Persistence
Earnings
Earningspersistence
persistenceof
of
components
componentsdepends
dependsononkey
key
attributes
attributes
Recurring
Recurringvs
vsNon-recurring
Non-recurring
Operating
Operatingvs
vsNon-operating
Non-operating
Key
Keyapplication
applicationofofthese
these
attributes
attributesisisthe
thereporting
reportingof
of
Extraordinary
Extraordinaryvs
vsNon-extraordinary
Non-extraordinary
Earnings Persistence
Measuring Persistence
Analyzing
Analyzingand
andInterpreting
Interpreting
Extraordinary
ExtraordinaryItems
Items
1.
1. Determine
Determine whether
whether anan item
item
is
isextraordinary
extraordinary(less
(less
persistent)
persistent) or
ornot
not
2.
2. Assessing
Assessingwhether
whetheran anitem
item
is
isunusual,
unusual,non-operating,
non-operating, or or
non-recurring
non-recurring
3.
3. Determine
Determine adjustments
adjustments
necessary
necessarygiven
given
assessment
assessment ofof persistence
persistence
Earning Persistence
Measuring Persistence
Equity
Equity value
value (V
(Vt)t)
Book
Book value
value (BV
(BVt)t)
Residual
Residual Income
Income (RI (RItt== Net
Net income
income –– kk ** BV
BVt-1 )
t-1)
Cost
Cost of
of equity
equity capital
capital (k) (k)
Earning-Based Valuation
Valuation Multiples
Price-to-Book
Price-to-Book (PB)
(PB)
Price-to-Book
Price-to-Book (PB)
(PB) expressed
expressed in
in accounting
accounting data
data
Vt ROCE t 1 k ROCE t 2 k BVt 1 ROCE t 3 k BVt 2
1 ...
BVt 1 k 1 k 2
BVt 1 k 3
BVt
Note
Note
··ROCE
ROCE andandgrowth
growthin inbook
bookvalue
valueincrease
increase PBPB increases
increases
··Cost
Cost (risk)
(risk)of
ofequity
equity capital
capitalincreases
increases PB PB decreases
decreases
··Present
Present value
value of
of future
future abnormal
abnormal earnings
earnings isis positive
positive
(negative) PB
(negative) PBisisgreater
greater (less)
(less) than
than1.0
1.0
Earning-Based Valuation
Valuation Multiples
Price-to-Earnings
Price-to-Earnings (PE)
(PE)
Pt
1 STG LTG
eps t
k k LTG
Where
Where kk isis the
the cost
cost of
of equity
equity capital,
capital, STG
STG (LTG)
(LTG) is
is the
the
expected
expected short-term
short-term (long-term)
(long-term) % % change
change inin eps
eps
relative
relative to
to expected
expected “normal”
“normal” growth
growth (STG>LTG
(STG>LTG and and
LTG>k)
LTG>k)
•• The
The PE
PE isis inversely
inversely related
related to
to kk
•• The
The PE
PE isis positively
positively related
related to
to the
the expected
expected growth
growth
in
in eps
eps relative
relative to
to normal
normal growth.
growth.
Earning-Based Valuation
Valuation Multiples- PEG Ratio
IfIf LTG=0
LTG=0 (long-term
(long-term growth
growth in
in eps
eps relative
relative to
to “normal”
“normal”
growth
growth isis expected
expected to
to remain
remain constant)
constant)
Pt
STG
eps t k2
This
This yields
yields the
the popular
popular PEG
PEG ratio.
ratio.
Example:
Example: IfIf PE=20
PE=20 and
and k=10%,
k=10%, proponents
proponents of of this
this
screening
screening device
device recommend
recommend stock
stock purchase
purchase (sale)
(sale) ifif
the
the expected
expected eps
eps growth
growth is
is greater
greater (less)
(less) than
than 20%.
20%.
Earning-Based Valuation
Earnings-Based Valuation--Illustration
Christy
ChristyCo.
Co.book
bookvalue
valueofofequity
equityat
atJanuary
January1,1,Year
Year1,
1,is
is$50,000
$50,000
Christy
Christyhas
hasaa15%
15%cost
costofofequity
equitycapital
capital(k)
(k)
Forecasts
Forecastsof
ofChristy’s
Christy’saccounting
accountingdata
datafollow:
follow:
Year
Year11 Year
Year22 Year
Year33 Year
Year44 Year
Year55
Sales
Sales $$100,000
100,000 $$113,000
113,000 $$127,690
127,690 $$144,290
144,290 $144,290
$144,290
Operating
Operatingexpenses
expenses 77,500
77,500 90,000
90,000 103,500
103,500 118,000
118,000 119,040
119,040
Depreciation
Depreciation 10,000
10,000 11,300
11,300 12,770
12,770 14,430
14,430 14,430
14,430
Net income
Net income $ 12,500 $ 11,700 $ 11,420 $
$ 12,500 $ 11,700 $ 11,420 $ 11,860 11,860 $$ 10,820
10,820
Dividends
Dividends 6,000
6,000 4,355
4,355 3,120
3,120 11,860
11,860 10,820
10,820
Year
Year 66 and
and beyond
beyond == Both
Both accounting
accounting data
data and
and dividends
dividends
approximate
approximateYear
Year55levels
levels
Earning-Based Valuation
Earnings-Based Valuation--Illustration
Christy’s
Christy’s forecasted
forecasted book
book value
value at
at January
January 1,
1, Year
Year 11 is
is
$58,594—computed
$58,594—computed as: as:
This
This implies
implies Christy
Christy stock
stock should
should sell
sell at
at aa PB
PB ratio
ratio of
of 1.17
1.17
($58,594/$50,000)
($58,594/$50,000)atat January
January 1,
1,Year
Year 11
Earning-Based Valuation
Earnings-Based Valuation--Illustration
Two
Twoadditional
additionalobservations
observationsare
areimportant.
important.
1.
1. Expected
Expected ROCE
ROCE equals
equals 15%
15% (Christy’s
(Christy’s cost
cost of
of capital)
capital) for
for Year
Year 55
and
and beyond.
beyond. Since
Since ROCE
ROCE equals
equals the
the cost
cost of
of capital
capital for
for Year
Year 55 and
and
beyond,
beyond,these
theseyears’
years’results
resultsdo
donot
notchange
changethethevalue
valueofofChristy
Christy(that
(that
is,
is, abnormal
abnormal earnings
earnings equal
equal zero
zero for
for those
those years).
years). The
The anticipated
anticipated
effects
effectsof
ofcompetition
competitionare
areimplicit
implicitin
inestimates
estimatesof offuture
futureprofitability.
profitability.
2.
2. Valuation
Valuation estimates
estimates assume
assume dividend
dividend payments
payments occur
occur at
at the
the end
end
of
of each
each year.
year. AA more
more realistic
realistic assumption
assumption is is that,
that, on
on average,
average, these
these
cash
cash outflows
outflows occur
occur midway
midway through
through the
the year.
year. To
To adjust
adjust valuation
valuation
estimates
estimates for
for mid-year
mid-year discounting,
discounting, multiply
multiply thethe present
present value
value ofof
future
future abnormal
abnormal earnings
earnings byby (1(1 k/2).
k/2). For
For Christine
Christine Company
Company the the
adjusted
adjusted valuation
valuation estimate
estimate equals
equals $59,239.
$59,239. This
This is
is computed
computed as as
$50,000
$50,000plus
plus(1(111[.15/2])
[.15/2])33$8,594.
$8,594.
Earning Power and Forecasting
Earning Power
Sustainable trends in
earnings and its
components
Earning Power and Forecasting
Earning Power
Factors in selecting a time horizon for measuring earning
power
One-year period is often too short to reliably measure
earning power
Many investing and financing activities are long term
Better to measure earning power by using average (or
cumulative) earnings over several years
An extended period is less
subject to distortions,
irregularities, and other
transitory effects
Preferred time horizon in
measuring earning power is
typically 4 to 7 years
Earning Power and Forecasting
Earning Forecasting