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Chain
Role of Forecasting in a Supply Chain
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Forecasts of future demand are essential
Forecasting for making supply chain decision.
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All push process are performed in anticipation of
Push/Pull ●
customer demand
All pull process are performed in response customer
demand
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Production: scheduling, inventory, aggregate planning
Examples
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Marketing: sales force allocation, promotions, new production
introduction
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Finance: plant/equipment investment, budgetary planning
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Personnel: workforce planning, hiring, layoffs
Characteristic of Forecast
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● use historical demand only
Time Series ●
● Static
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● Adaptive
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use the relationship between demand and
Causal
some other factor to develop forecast
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● Imitate consumer choices that give rise to demand
Simulation ●
● Can combine time series and causal methods
Basic Approach to Demand Forecasting
1 ●
Understand the objective of forecasting
2 ●
● Integrate demand planning and forecasting throughout the supply chain
3 ●
● Understand and identify customer segment
4 ●
● Identify the major factor that influence the demand forecast
5 ●
● Determine the appropriate forecasting technique
6 ●
● Establish performance and error measures for the forecast
Risk Management in Forecasting
The risk associated with forecast error must be
considered when planning for the future.
Errors in forecasting can cause significant misallocation
of resources in inventory, facilities, transportation,
sourcing, pricing, and information management.
Two strategies used to mitigate forecast risk are:
Increasing the responsiveness of supply chain
Utilizing opportunities for pooling of demand
Risk Management in Forecasting
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By increasing responsiveness allows the firm to reduce forecast error and thus
decrease the associated risk
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Pooling attempts to smooth out lumpy demand by bringing together multiple
source of demand
Forecasting in Practice
Collaborate in building forecasts
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Systematic component = level X trend X
Multiplicative seasonal factor
seasonal factor
seasonal factor
Time-Series Forecast Methods (3)
Static method
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Assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic
component do not vary as new demand is observed.
Adaptive forecasting
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Assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after
demand observation.
Time-Series Forecast Methods (4)
Forecasting Method Applicability
Moving Average No trend or seasonality
Simple Exponential No trend or seasonality
Smoothing
Holt’s Model Trend but no seasonality
Winter’s Model Trend and seasonality
THE BULLWHIP EFFECT AND
THE NEED FOR COORDINATION
IN SUPPLY CHAINS
The Bullwhip Effect (1)
• Koordinasi pada rantai pasok akan meningkat
bila disetiap tahap pada rantai pasok
melakukan tindakan yang mengakibatkan
meningkatnya keuntungan pada rantai pasok
secara menyeluruh (total supply chain).
• Kurangnya koordinasi terjadi karena setiap
tahap memiliki perbedaan tujuan yang
bertentangan atau pergerakan informasi
diantara tiap tahap terhambat atau terjadi
distorsi (menyimpang).
The Bullwhip Effect (2)
The Bullwhip Effect (3)
• Pertentangan tujuan antar tahap pada rantai
pasok terjadi karena pada setiap tahap
memiliki pemilik yang berbeda. Setiap tahap
berusaha untuk memaksimumkan keuntungan
untuk sendiri, tindakan yang diambil
terkadang dapat memperkecil keuntungan
rantai pasok secara menyeluruh.
The Bullwhip Effect (4)
Contoh:
• Penyebab Operasional:
1. Proses permintaan
– Error permintaan (forecast error)
– Penyesuaian paramenter pengendalian
persediaan dengan observasi permintaan
2. Keragaman lead time
Penyebab terjadinya Bullwhip effect (3)
3. Lot size/singkronisasi permintaan
– Penggabungan permintaan
– Motif transaksi
– Quantity discount
4. Promosi produk
5. Antisipasi kekurangan
– Aturan alokasi dari pemasok
– Shortage gaming (aturan bila terjadi kekurangan)
– Lean and JIT style management of inventories and a
chase production strategy
Pengaruh Kurangnya Koordinasi terhadap
Kinerja
Kurangnya koordinasi pada rantai pasok dapat
meningkatkan:
• Biaya manufaktur.
• Biaya persediaan.
• Penambahan lead time.
• Biaya transportasi.
• Biaya tenaga kerja untuk shipping dan receiving.
• Gangguan pada tingkat ketersediaan produk.
• Pengaruh buruk terhadap hubungan pada rantai pasok.
Countermeasure (1)
• Secara teori Bullwhip Effect tidak akan terjadi bila
setiap pesanan dibuat tepat sesuai permintaan.
• Para ahli mengakui bahwa Bullwhip Effect
merupakan masalah pengaturan peramalan dalam
rantai pasok.
• Oleh karena itu penting sekali untuk mengetahui
permintaan konsumen secara nyata, salah satu cara
untuk mencapainya adalah menetapkan suatu cara
pengendalian permintaan
Countermeasure (2)
• Rantai pasok yang dipengaruhi oleh permintaan aktual dari
konsumen. Pada manufaktur konsep ini disebut Kanban.
• Metode-metode yang dapat mengurangi ketidakpastian,
variabilitas dan lead time, antara lain adalah:
1. Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI).
2. Pengadaan barang berdasarkan Just In Time (JIT).
3. Strategi kemitraan.
4. Penyebaran informasi.
Countermeasure (3)
5. Kelancaran aliran produk.
– Koordinasi dengan retailer penyebaran pengiriman.
– Mengurangi minimum batch sizes.
– Memperkecil ukuran paket dan menambah frekuensi pengiriman.