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Global
Trends
94. Volkswa
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Globally, passenger cars sales were up 2.4% in 2016. The world’s top automaker went to
Volkswagen with 10.7 million in sales but Toyota very close behind. Electric and plug-in-
hybrid vehicles sales are sharply up. In Europe, changes to the emissions test methods
and cycle, will have a global impact on the emissions certification process for years to
come.
537,000 units
Top selling vehicles reflect the preferences of their markets. In the US, it was once again
the Ford F-150 pickup which accounts for more than 5% of all new vehicles sold. In
Europe it is the VW Golf. In Japan, the “Micro car” segment leader was the Honda N-
Box, while the Prius was the top selling car. In China, 3 vehicles came in above 500k
units, the VW Lavida compact sedan, the Haval H6 SUV, and the Wuling Hongguang
minivan.
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5.3%3% dd2%oowwnn 22%%
•• 2424..7272
•• 24.72 SUVs million •••• Volkswagen
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>1>155 million •• >5>5..22
•• >5.2 million ••• >1>177
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Looking at the 4 biggest markets in 2017…China saw light-vehicle sales growth slow,
after part of the tax cut on small-vehicle purchases ended. As a result, over 40% of
vehicles sold in China were Crossovers and SUVs. Also, government subsidies fueled a
boom in sales of electric and plug-in-hybrid vehicles. Europe saw sales grow for the 4th
consecutive year. Gasoline engine sales beat diesels for the first time in many years and
we expect this trend to be repeated. Despite “dieselgate”, the Volkswagen Group still
accounts for almost a ¼ of new vehicle registrations. Big winners in 2017 include: PSA
Group, Toyota Group and Suzuki, all posting double digit growth. Japan saw demand
increase in a unique market which includes 1.8 million micro-cars. Toyota remained the
largest carmaker in Japan, by a wide margin over second placed Honda. But Nissan had
the biggest gain in market share. In the US, demand peaked at just over 17 million new
registrations. VW and Subaru saw the largest gains. The CAFE target of 55 mpg by 2025
remains in place for now – stay tuned.
In China, new energy vehicle sales may be small but the growth rate is powerfully strong.
China’s ambitious target is to have 5 million NEVs on the road by 2020 with a matching
number of available electric chargers. This would overcome the often-cited concerns of
range anxiety.
Internal Combustion
Engines [ICE]
• Turbo GDI
• Variable compression ratio
• Compression ignition engine
Electrification
• Hybrids
• Full electrification
• Fuel cells
Powertrains
• Hybridized transmissions
• Electric variable transmissions
OEMs across the globe are under pressure to cut fleet wide CO2 emissions. We are
seeing the emergence a number of strategies, which include both the use of alternative
technologies and significant improvements to both the internal combustion engine and,
as we shall see later, the entire powertrain.
The demise of the internal combustion engine, let’s call it an I C E, is probably overstated
as the two new innovations here illustrate. Mazda’s SKYACTIV X, expected in 2019, will
be the world's first commercial spark controlled compression ignition. It revs like a
gasoline engine but with the efficiency of a diesel. Nissans’ INFINITI VC Turbo in the
QX50 is the Industry’s first use of a variable compression ratio system. The electronics
and software continually choose an optimal compression ratio for combustion, which
historically was a key factor in the trade-off between power and efficiency in a gasoline-
fueled engine. A maximum thermal efficiency around twice the level of current gasoline
engines is reported.
Internal Combustion
Engines [ICE]
• Turbo GDI
• Variable compression ratio
• Compression ignition engine
Electrification
• Hybrids
• Full electrification
• Fuel cells
Powertrains
• Hybridized transmissions
• Electric variable transmissions
Electrification can mean different things to different people. We define the term
electrification as involving some form of battery/motor supplement to the ICE. Of
course, “all” or “fully” electric does not have an ICE. The real growth is with the hybrid
powertrain which uses both the ICE and electric motor.
Stop/Star TRANSMISSION
Propulsi 2-4
t AXLE on artin
Micro Hybrid MOTOR/GENERATOR if
equipped
MHEV Propulsi
ICE
8-11
Mild Hybrid Assist
on
ECONOMY
47%
9%
O
FULL HEV N T
COST
• Hybrids grow to ~25%
FUEL
O S
by 2024 C O
Full electric BEVs and MILD HEV E C
•increase L
FCEVs vehicle
Full Electric still <5% by 85%
47% E
2024
structure
and infra- FU
STOP/START
costs 47%
“Well-to-wheel” ICE
enthusia
electric
2012 2018 2024
sm
Model Year
Data Source: IHS
Automotive
to bancountries
Some the intend
manufacture
sale or of
ICEs
• Norway – by 2025
• France – by 2040
• UK – by 2040
• China – by TBD
CO2 legislation
can be
technology
neutral
In 2030, 80% of cars sold will still contain a
combustion engine
Data Source:
IHS
Some countries announced plans to ban sales of vehicles running on the ICE which, if
carried out, would spell the beginning of the end for it. However, some new emissions
legislation is technology neutral, which allows OEMs to decide which technologies to
apply to best meet both their environmental obligations and consumer preferences.
That said, 80% of cars sold in 2050 will still contain an ICE.
by 2030' Daimler
•an
Daimler:
ICE speeding
SAIC-GM-
Wuling
up e-mobility ICE
Suzuki
STOP/START MILD HEV FULL HEV BEV FCEV
• Except BEV and Toyota
FCEV
In 2017, several major OEMs announced their electrification plans. Volkswagen by 2030
wants to offer an electric version of each of VW group’s 300 models. General Motors by
2023 will launch at least 20 new all-electric vehicles. Volvo Cars raised eyebrows with
their press release “Volvo Cars to go all electric”. Volvo really meant that each model
would have an electrified variant from 2019. Daimler will integrate electric models into
its production and accelerate e-mobility plans. Most other OEM’s electric variants will
still use an ICE.
4: forecast
ICE
vs.
installations +10
2017
%
Installed ICE
sizevs. -
14
2017
%
ICEs
Hybridin
installed > 25 %
s
NO <1.0 1.0 to 1.5 to 2.0 to ≥3.0
ICE <1.5 <2.0 <3.0
ICE displacement, liters
Data Source: IHS
Automotive
With more cars being built, annual engine installations are expected to increase 10% by
2024. However, the engines are slowly being downsized. And more of them are finding
their way into mild and full hybrid applications.
Increased engine
Cooler operating
stress Increased
conditions Frequent
water levels
engine starts Longer
Increased fuel levels
engine stops Potential for higher
wear
Hybrid lubricants must
excel
deliver
lent cleanliness and wear
protection
The ICE in hybrid vehicles operates under different duty cycles. With engine off and then
repeatedly on and off, the operating temperatures are often much cooler. The lubricant
can experience more water and fuel dilution creating new challenges for the lubricant.
We expect to see SAE 0W-8s in these engines and it will be essential to confirm the
durability of the equipment under these new operating conditions.
OEM Thoughts
on Lubricants for
Hybrids
It’s early in the cycle of the development of targeted lubricants for hybrids and
viewpoints vary on what will be needed, but let’s hear from Ron Romano of Ford and
Yamamori-san from Japan.
Ron Romano: “Ford today recommends 0W-20 for some of the hybrids that we make.
That's the only change beyond what we normally recommend for gasoline engines. And
beyond that, at this time Ford isn’t going to be recommending any other viscosity grades
or any other performance requirements for hybrids.”
Yamamori-san: “If specifications that are best suited for hybrid vehicles are established
through various discussions, we typically think they should be introduced as industry–
wide specifications.”
• GM: 0W-20
60%
• Ford: 5W-20
• Toyota: 0W-20 40%
In terms of viscosity grade trends, SAE 5W-20 and 0W-20 are now the most widely
recommended grades for new cars but we expect sales of 0W grades to still be in a
minority by 2027 due to back-serviceability limitations and to a lesser extent, consumer
preferences.
MY 2018 Camry:
0W-16
0W-16 SN-RC
commercially
available
550 branded ®
2017 was a quiet year for new products, perhaps we are all waiting for the new API
specifications? All 2018 Camrys now recommend a SAE 0W-16 which made its debut as
an API SN-RC licensed product. We did see the new dexos®1: GEN2 products take hold,
the TRC site reports a total of 550 GEN2 branded products.
This is by far the longest period of time between new ILSAC GF categories. 2017 was a
very busy year with 7 new tests progressing towards approval as ASTM standards. Also in
2017 the OEMs decided they could wait no longer for a new API category to include an
LSPI measurement test requirement. As a result the API SN PLUS supplement was
approved spawning 2 new API donuts. In effect, this imposes a mid-category
reformulation since to meet the LSPI requirements, we see Calcium levels decreasing
and Magnesium either introduced or its levels increasing.
Stakeholder
Views on
SN PLUS
Let’s hear some views from API’s Kevin Ferrick, Shell’s Selda Gunsel, Pinnacle’s Kevin
Morris and Infineum’s Bruce Royan.
Kevin Ferrick: “The first licensing date for SN PLUS licensing is May 1, 2018.”
Selda Gunsel: “The penetration of the new category API SN PLUS into global markets will
depend on the penetration of the vehicles that require these oils. It is inevitable that
both API SN and SN PLUS will exist in the marketplace for some time. SN PLUS requires
some chemistry changes and it takes time for these products to penetrate the
marketplace. Eventually we believe that SN PLUS will fully replace SN in the
marketplace.”
Kevin Ferrick: “I think SN PLUS in the API Donut will help consumers find the bottled SN PLUS oils, but
consumers normally can't see labels on engine oil bulk tanks at oil change locations. API will have to ramp
up its messaging to remind consumers to ask for SN PLUS oils.”
Kent Morris: “As we make the move to SN PLUS, I think there's two things that need to
make sure take place. API's helped us with the first, that is a good Donut, that indicates
clearly SN PLUS, which they've done so by bolding that in the bottom part of the Donut.
The second I think is incumbent upon the marketer to effectively label the product so
that the user understands specifically that it's addressing the LSPI issue that SN PLUS is
targeting. Our belief is that SN and SN PLUS will not coexist in the marketplace, rather SN
PLUS will dominate, and the main reason is logistical in nature. If you look at the bulkage
distributor market, distributors don't have tankage to carry both. Second, if you look at
the retail channels, retailers don't have shelf space to carry both products.”
A New API
Certification
Mark for 0W-16?
Ron and Kevin return to explain where we are on having a second API mark for 0W-16s.
Ron Romano: “Since the beginning of development for GF-6, ILSAC has been asking for
two separate oil specifications to separate low viscosity from high viscosities in these
specifications. Those are GF-6A and GF-6B. ILSAC is still asking for this. We also feel that
separate symbols should be used for these two specifications to differentiate them
more in the marketplace, and hopefully that will allow the customer to see the
differences between these two. We're also going to try and see if we can get a little
more education to the customer for these new specifications.”
Kevin Ferrick: “API member companies have said that they would prefer to use the API
Starburst for the 0W-16 oils. We've committed to making a final decision on the request for a
second mark by this summer.”
GF-6 Timing
Ron Romano: “ILSAC doesn’t want to see any more delays in GF-6. We realize that we’re
behind from where we originally planned due to delays in test development. ILSAC will
be continuously pushing to try and get first licensings for GF-6 sometime in 2019, as
early as possible.”
Implementing
GF-6 After SN
PLUS
This is quite a challenge for everyone to meet. Kevin and Kent sum it up very nicely.
Kevin Ferrick: “API relied on a campaign to educate consumers on CK-4 and FA-4 and
we’ll likely have to do the same with GF-6, particularly if we have to explain a new mark
for 0W-16 oils.“
Kent Morris: “If you look at the practical challenges a marketer will face for moving from
SN PLUS to GF-6, really three things come to mind. The first deals with API and product
licensing. API's done a lot to facilitate that process, but still there will be some effort
required to take care of that. The second deals with packaging, and specifically on the
labeling and the card in front. Then the third and final area will be related to marketing
collateral, ranging from websites, to product data sheets, to product catalogs, etc.
Richard Dougherty: “An evergreen test development process will be needed to help keep
pace with changing engine designs. This process will also help ensure consumers with
state‐of‐the‐art vehicles have sufficient engine protection through capable, high‐quality
oils. Ultimately, we will need new funding models to make this a reality. The Lubricants
Standards Development Review Group is hard at work evaluating new processes which
could speed up and improve test development and maintenance.
Kevin Ferrick: “Test development has slowed the adoption of GF‐6 but I believe the
standard‐setting system is still capable of meeting the needs of the stakeholders. The
system today is designed to ensure all stakeholders with a material interest in an engine
oil standard have a say. We just need to speed up the conversation.”
Internal Combustion
Engines [ICE]
• Turbo GDI
• Variable compression ratio
• Compression ignition engine
Electrification
• Hybrids
• Full electrification
• Fuel cells
Powertrains
• Hybridized transmissions
• Electric variable transmissions
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