ESCALATION LADDER

Escalation
defined

Escalation can be defined
as “ Increase in intensity
and magnitude of war .”

 According to Kahn there

are 3 ways in which
escalation can increase

1. Increasing the intensity.

2. Widening the area.

3. Compound escalation
Three ways of escalation - 1
Increase
intensity

Use nuclear
weapons

Violate local
conventions on Increase moral
targeting, committal
weapons or tactics

Bring in
reinforcements
Three ways of escalation - 2

Widen area

Involving
neighborin
g countries

Violate a
Use longer
local range weapons
sanctuary
Three ways of escalation - 3

Compound
crisis

Attack Colonies,
Clients, Allies
and Bases

Attack
central
sanctuary
 CONCEPTUAL FRAME WORK OF
KAHN’S WORK
 The escalation ladder metaphor as designed by Kahn list down the
all possible stages of an interstate conflict.

 The listed stages include both political and military

confrontations.

 The ladder also visualizes nuclear war in different stages.

 It is not necessary that any Interstate conflict will follow the stages
from 1 to 44 but could start at any point of ladder.

 Scenario’s are easy to conceptualize with escalation ladder in mind.

 Escalation ladder
19. Justifiable counter force attack.
1. Ostensible crisis 20. “Peaceful” World wide embargo or blockade.
2. Political, economic and military gestures. 21. Local Nuclear war.

22. Declaration of limited nuclear war.

3. Solemn and formal declaration.
23. Local Nuclear war military.
4. Hardening of positions. 24. Unusual, provocative and significant counter
5. Show of force. measures.
25. Evacuation 70 %.
6. Significant mobilization.
26. Demonstration attack on Zone of Interior.
7. “Legal” harassment. 27. Exemplary attack on military.
8. Harassing acts of Violence. 28. Exemplary attack on

29. population.
9. dramatic military confrontations.
30. Exemplary attack on property.
10. Provocative breaking of Diplomatic 31. Complete evacuation.
relations. 32. Reciprocal reprisals.
11. Super ready status. 33. Formal declaration of general war.

34. Slow motion counter property war.

12. Large conventional war or action.
35. Slow motion counter force war.
13. Large compound escalation. 36. Constrained force reduction salvo.

14. Declaration of Limited conventional war. 37. Constrained disarming attack.

38. Counter force with avoidance attack.

15. Barely Nuclear war.
39. unmodified counter attack.
16. Nuclear Ultimatums. 40. Slow motion counter city war.

17. Limited Evacuation 41. Counter value salvo.

42. Civilian devastation attack

18. Spectacular Show of Force
 Pyramid design

Civilian
central wars

Military
central wars

Exemplary
central attacks

Bizarre Crisis

Intense crisis

Traditional
crisis

Sub crisis
maneuvering
A block diagram
 Kahn’s escalation model and DPRK’s
nuclear program
 North Korea’s nuclear
weapons program is a major
contemporary international
issue. The possession of a
rudimentary nuclear weapons
and requisite delivery systems
places North Korea in a
special position regarding the
regional politics. We will try
to visualize escalation on
Korean peninsula according
to Kahn’s escalation ladder.

 Key players include China,

North Korea, South Korea,
Japan, USA and Russia .
 Sub crisis maneuvering
 Options Available -: Possible Scenario’s -:

 DPRK senior leadership and/or

1. Diplomacy.
regime change Third nation pressure
2. Counter proliferation and nuclear
on resource and security flows
trafficking initiatives.
3. Bilateral negotiations.
 Bilateral negotiations (ROK, China,
4. Technical and human intelligence.
Russia, Japan) ·
5. Assimilation effect
 US-DPRK negotiations ·
 Possible Triggers -:
 SIGINT, TECHINT, MASINT and
1. DPRK conventional missile test HUMINT capabilities Denial and
2. DPRK leadership statements Deception strategies.
3. DPRK evidence of illegal arms dealing
(Nuclear)  Refugee flows.
4. Refugee problem in the region.
 Traditional crisis
 Options available-: Possible scenario’s -:

 Economic and trade targeting.

1. Crisis diplomacy.
2. Psychological operations.
 DPRK’s “First strike uncertainty”.
3. “Chicken game” strategy.
4. Global Media.
 Media war of words against hostile
5. De-escalation options.
population.
6. Systems analysis of targeting.
7. ?
 U.N general assembly or security council votes
and resolutions.
 Escalation trigger -:
 Six party Talks and declaration.
1. DPRK’s Major arms sale or nuclear
proliferation.
 Coercive diplomacy by U.S and regional
2. DPRK’s mobilization against Japan or South
coalitions.
Korea.
3. DPRK’s involvement in Black market
 Rejection of declaration by North Korea
smuggling.
 ?
4. ?
 Bizarre Crisis
Possible scenario’s -:
 Options Available -:
 Retaliatory attack on DPRK’s cities and
1. Covert special operations. major target center’s
2. DPRK’s force mobilization and power
projection.  DPRK’s population evacuation or major
3. Targeting data for pre emptive strikes. humanitarian crisis.
4. Arms sale and technology transfer.
 Hostile ‘regime change’ efforts by U.S in
5. ?
DPRK.

 Escalation triggers -:  Pre emptive strikes on North Korea’s

nuclear facilities.
1. DPRK’s covert or special operations in ROK.
2. DPRK’s Internal conflict and regime  ROK-U.S or U.S led U.N invasion of DPRK.
destabilization.
3. Massive Cyber attack on Pentagon by DPRK.  Massive retaliatory strikes by DPRK on U.S
Base in Okinawa, Japan.
4. DPRK’s nuclear test.
5. DPRK’s pre emptive strike on Japan ?
 Skirmishes on Naval front.
6. Naval confrontation between DPRK’s navy  ?
and hostile patrolling boats of opposite
coalition.
 Military central wars (Nuclear)
Option’s available -: Possible Scenario’s-:
1. Use of tactical nuclear weapons.
 U.S second strike on
2. Bunker busters.
3. BMD’s Aegis cruiser. Pyongyang.

Possible trigger -:  U.S tactical nuclear targeting

of DPRK’s military forces.
4. Use of nuclear weapons against
U.S forces in Okinawa, Japan
 Use of Bunker buster
(counter force attack)
5. DPRK’s use of nuclear weapons
missiles during a strategic air
attack on military targets in South campaign by U.S.
Korea(counter force attack).
6. Entrance of Chinese Navy into the  ??
conflict.
7. ??
 Civilian central wars (Nuclear)
Options available-: Possible Scenario’s-:

1. Strategic warheads. 1. DPRK Targets South

2. Hydrogen Bomb. Korea’s government
installations, Population
centers and Capital city
Possible Trigger -: Seoul.
2. Repetition of above tactics
against Japan.
3. Military Central wars
3. Civilian Targeting against
(Nuclear). DPRK’s By U.S
4. ?? 4. ??
A SMALL TEST
 Questions
 As we all know that Cold start doctrine lies at the heart of
Indian Military strategy. So in any “eventuality” or trigger if
India ‘Cold starts’ Pakistan then at which point on Escalation
ladder would we be standing?.

 On which point on Escalation ladder are we standing now

amid tensions emanating from Korean peninsula ( remember
recent crisis ?)

 In an event of Pakistan pulling out of ‘war on terror’

“comprehensively” at which point would we be standing on
escalation ladder Vis a Vis America ?
The End