!!
(5)?
(3)?

(1)?
REPRINTED from 1/2/2011 (4)?
(b)
(2)?

[a]
(d)
!#!
(5)

[b]
(3) (c) (e)
!$!
(1)
(4) (a)
!!
(5)
(3) (2)

(1)
While I am expecting some sort of peaking action this week, it
continues to be prudent to WAIT for some sort of ³sign´ from the
(4)
market that it¶s ³ok´ to begin shorting in earnest. A breakdown
below 1233 would constitute that ³sign´ for me. Alternatively, any
(2)
impulsive move lower on the 60 min. charts will force me into fresh
shorts.

!"!

-y-
b

|

  
 

 
 
 

!!
(5)?

(3)?

(1)?
(4)?
(b)
(2)?

(d)
!#! [a]
(5)

(3) [b]
(c) (e)
(1) !$!
(a)
!! (4)
(5)
(3)
(2)

(1)

Last week¶s message that it would be prudent to wait (for shorting) on some
(4)
sort of ³sign´ was decent. The market did not trigger any sell stops (at 1233).
At this point, though, I¶m getting an ³itch´ to short this thing. Thus, I¶m raising
(2) my sell stop to 1253, the 23.6% retrace of the last leg up (Wave -5-). 1253
looks like it should be ³classic chart support´ as well. So, a break below this
level this week should lead to more selling. A break of 1226 would cause me to
!"! increase the level of shorts even further.

-y-
b

|

  
 '()
%

  & ³y´
c
-5-
The market has actually done a decent job of ³attempting´ to eliminate the
this sharp RSI divergence--but, it still exists. Also, please note the
similarities of the candlestick development in the dashed blue boxes. The
set up looks eerily similar--there was a nice bullish long day which was
followed by a ³hangman´ looking stick four days later. If we see two more
days of choppiness followed by a big bearish red body, then we¶ll
just have to chalk it up to a nice ³coincidence´ I suppose.
-3-

-4-

-1-

Wave -5- Targets:

1267: 78.6% of Wave -1-
1291: Wave -5- = -1-

-2-

|

  
:
180 min. with Weekly Support and Resistance Levels

REPRINTED from 12/19/2010

!#!
(5)

(b) (d)

(3)

(b)

(4)
(e)
(1) !$!
!! (a)
(5) (2) (c)

(3)
(c)
(1) (a) !"!
(4)

The wave count off the 75.63 low remains difficult to understand, but there is this bullish count
that is ³possible.´ Due to the price action in the last week, I have to start giving this bullish
(2)
possibility of ³impulses´ off the lows a little more credence. If a Wave -4- did conclude at 79.55,
then some good risk/reward trades can be created. For instance, if the DXY is beginning to
³impulse´ up from 79.55, it would have no business retracing back below 79.94, the 62%
retrace of the recent ³pop.´ Therefore, on Sunday night, I am increasing my DXY exposure
from 20% to 40% of a Max Long position. I will run a ³stop loss´ at 79.90 for the new length.
*+,#

|

  
:
180 min. with Weekly Support and Resistance Levels
âur last look at the DXY presented a bullish ³impulsive´ wave count. The Wave -4- developed
differently than I had imagined, but this bullish interpretation is still viable. The Wave -4- was
longer enduring relative to the Wave -2-, but that¶s exactly what the requirement is for an (3)
³extended´ fifth wave«..

!#!
(1)

(b)

(2)

!!
(a)
(c)
!$!
!"!
The proposed Waves -1- and -3- here are of equivalent length; therefore, if this is an ³impulse,´
the fifth wave Ë ST be the extended wave. The minimum target for the proposed Wave -5-
would be 84.70, for Wave -5- = -1- l -3-. We have remained 20% of a Max. Long in the DXY.
We were stopped out of our last foray into adding length, but given the bullish setup here, we
are of a ³buy dip´ mentality. For instance, there are layers of support at 80.69, 80.34 and 79.75.
*+,# New length will be added in the following manner: 10% at 80.75; 20% 80.40; 50% at 79.85.
That strategy would lead us to be 100% of a Max. Long position in the DXY at 79.85, right in
front of 79.75, which is the 61.8% retracement of Wave (1).

|

  
ƒold (Feb11 Futures) :aily

I must admit that the shape of the pattern up from the late July lows is the MâST
BIZARRE pattern I ever witnessed. It¶s indecipherable to me. In other words, it¶s
going to take me a lot more time to understand what we¶re witnessing and how it
might fit in the bigger picture. In the meantime, using classical charting methods, we
have what ³looks´ like a huge ³rounded top´ forming with a powerful looking move
lower from $1,424. If a major pattern did conclude around $1,424, then $1,397 would
be the ³stop´ level for new shorts, the 61.8% retrace. The ³rounded top´ idea gets
blown up on any action above $1,424. Good Luck here«.

|

  
 %& -|&./ | 0&01%& -|&./ | 0&01%& -|&./

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