HISTORICAL

BACKGROUND
Eleven moments that changed Ireland
History
 The coming of the gospel to Ireland
 The arrival of Henry Plantagenet in Ireland
 The Plantation of Ulster
 The sack of Drogheda
 The battle of Aughrim
 An Argument on Behalf of the Catholics of Ireland
 Daniel O’Connell and Catholic Emancipation
 The Great Famine
 Fifteen leaders of the Easter Rising are executed
 Bloody Sunday
 The Good Friday Agreement
I. The coming of the gospel to Ireland

 The spread of Christianity in fifth-century Ireland

 The development of Christianity was
fundamental to the evolution of an Irish cultural
identity, led to the creation of such glories of
early Irish art as the Book of Kells and the Ardagh
Chalice, and helped to maintain the flame of
learning and education in Europe during the
chaotic centuries that followed the fall of Rome.
II.The arrival of Henry Plantagenet in Ireland

 In October 1171, Henry Plantagenet – King Henry

II – himself arrived in Ireland, anxious to
underscore his authority, and to add this
promising new dominion to his extensive Anglo-
French empire
 the establishment of the Lordship of Ireland: in
effect, the first English colony. Three decades
later, Henry’s successor John lost control of
Normandy – after which the attention of the
English crown became even more focused on its
Irish possessions.
III. The Plantation of Ulster

 a systematic British and Protestant settlement of the northern

half of Ireland – which until this point had remained the most
obdurately Gaelic and Catholic part of the country.
 1601 came the definitive victory of English military power in
Ireland
IV. The sack of Drogheda

 The Civil War in England had come to an end with the execution of Charles
I, and Cromwell was eager now to settle affairs in Ireland, where anarchy
reigned and the royalist faction retained significant support.
 Cromwell marched 30 miles north along the coast to the royalist-held port of
Drogheda. By 10 September, the town was surrounded; on the next day, its
walls were breached, and there followed the dreadful sack of Drogheda, in
which much of the town’s population – Catholics and Protestants, English
and Irish – were indiscriminately put to the sword.
V.The battle of Aughrim

 The Battle of Aughrim was fought on the flat landscapes of County Galway in July
1691
 It epitomized the final defeat of Catholic Ireland, and the beginning of an uncontested
Protestant ascendancy in Ireland.
VI. An Argument on Behalf of the Catholics
of Ireland
 Wolfe Tone stands as one of Ireland’s most compelling and charismatic national
leaders. Born in Dublin in 1763, his political vision was sharpened as he watched
revolutionary events unfold first in America and then France. He dreamt of a radical,
non-sectarian Irish republic – and his 1791 pamphlet An Argument on Behalf of the
Catholics of Ireland was envisaged as a necessary first step, calling as it did for the
emancipation of Ireland’s disenfranchised Catholic majority.
VII. Daniel O’Connell and Catholic
Emancipation
 By the 1830s, a new leader had emerged onto the national stage. Daniel O’Connell
was as Catholic as Wolfe Tone had been atheist. His vision was of an Ireland in which
Catholicism and national identity were folded into one; and he understood the
importance of enlisting the mass of the population as a means of achieving his vision
of the repeal of the Act of Union.
VIII. The Great Famine

 In September 1845, as the first potatoes were being lifted in fields across
Ireland, word began to spread of a disease affecting the new crop. The
potatoes were coming out of the ground rotten and putrid. Blight was
spreading across the countryside. The famine would continue until 1849 –
and its effects upon Irish society were cataclysmic
 Of a pre-famine population of some eight million, over a million died of
hunger and famine-related diseases – and for Irish nationalists, it became a
truism that “the Almighty sent the potato blight but the English created the
famine
 
IX. Fifteen leaders of the Easter Rising are executed

 The men were leaders of the Easter Rising, which had exploded across central Dublin
in late April. One of them, the labour activist James Connolly, had had his ankle
injured by a sniper’s bullet and was executed while being strapped to a chair. The
Rising had been defeated in a matter of days. Much of central Dublin was left
shattered by fire, gunfire and bombardment, and most of the casualties of the fighting
were civilians.
X. Bloody Sunday

 On 30 January 1972, a civil rights march was winding slowly from the western suburbs of Derry
towards the Guildhall Square in the city centre. Such marches were commonplace: since 1968,
Northern Ireland had become accustomed to the sight of public demonstrations demanding equal
rights for the province’s Catholic minority; and an end to Unionist-majority rule. On this day,
however, the march ended in tragedy as British soldiers opened fire on the crowd. Soon, 13 men
lay dead; a 14th died later of his injuries
 The army claimed that IRA operatives in the crowd had fired first, and the
resulting public inquiry accepted this version of events. Bloody Sunday was by
no means the most violent day of the Northern Ireland Troubles – but the fact
that the 14 men had been killed by the forces of the state itself lent a ghastly
distinction to the event. The effects of Bloody Sunday continued to be felt for
years. Catholic public opinion was inflamed, and support for the IRA and other
terrorist groups grew apace.
XI. The Good Friday Agreement

 For many, a solution to Northern Ireland’s 20th‑century Troubles seemed

impossible. The
More Specific Timeline

 August 1969
 describes as a “limited operation
 February 1971
 Gunner Robert Curtis
 January 1972
 “Bloody Sunday
 March 1972
- The Stormont Government is dissolved
 October 1974
-Pubs are bombed in Guildford
 July 1976
 Christopher Ewart Biggs
 March 1979
 Airey Neave, a confidant of Margaret Thatcher’s
 August 1979
-Lord Mountbatten, the Queen’s cousin, dies when a bomb planted by the Provisional
IRA explodes on his boat in Sligo.
 April 1981
- Bobby Sands, one of the republicans on hunger strike in the Maze prison
 October 1984
-A bomb explodes at the Grand Hotel in Brighton
 November 1985  
 Margaret Thatcher and Garret FitzGerald, the Irish Taoiseach
 November 1987
 11 civilians are killed by a Provisional IRA
 July 1990
 Ian Gow, the Conservative MP
 April 1998
 The Good Friday Agreement is signed and is hailed as the end of the
Troubles
 August 1998
- In the greatest single atrocity of the Troubles, 29 people are killed
 October 2002
 Sinn Fein’s offices at the Stormont parliament are raided
 August 2004
- Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein leader, says republicans must be prepared to see
the IRA disbanded as part of a final settlement.
 January 2005
 Robert McCartney, a Catholic former bouncer,
 September 2005
 International monitors confirm the IRA has completed the disposal of its
weapons
 November 2006
 Michael Stone, the loyalist the murderer,
 May 2007
- The Democratic Unionist Party enters a historic power-sharing government
with Sinn Fein
 May 2007
- The Democratic Unionist Party enters a historic power-sharing government
with Sinn Fein. Its leader, Ian Paisley, is first minister, with Sinn Fein’s Martin
McGuinness as his deputy.
 March 2009
- Republican paramilitaries shoot dead two British soldiers at their barracks
near Antrim and wound four other people.
 May 2011
- The Queen and the Duke of Edinburgh make a state visit to Ireland, the first
since the 1911 tour by George V, Her Majesty’s grandfather.
BELFAST AGREEMENT
• Good Friday Agreement

• April 10, 1998

• ratified in both Ireland and Northern Ireland

• Multiparty talks—involving representatives of Ireland, various
political parties of Northern Ireland, and the British government.
Three “Strands” of Administrative Relationships
• creation of the Northern Ireland Assembly

• institutional arrangement for cross-border cooperation on a range

of issues between the governments of Ireland and Northern Ireland

• continued consultation between the British and Irish governments

 BREXIT CONNECTION
How did we get here ?
• On June 23rd 2016 the UK to leave European Union by
a majority of 51.9 to 48.1 percent with a turnout of
just under 72 percent.
• On march 29th The timetable was set the following ,
-British crime minister Theresa may
took the formal steps required under EU law to start
the exit process of triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon
treaty
• The talks between the UK and EU started in June 2017 and
focused on the details of the UK’s withdrawal.

• “ Exit bill or Divorce Bill”

• November 2018
- agreement was also reached on backstop for the
Irish border.
• If the withdrawal agreement is passed a so called “transition
period”
- a kind of standstill in current arrangement, would apply for, the
leaving date until December 2020 or 2022 if it is extended.

•Boris Johnson
- succeeded May as Conservative leader and British prime
minister in July 2019
- Johnson election threw the manner of the UK’s exit by the next
deadline of October 31st in doubt given that during his campaign to
become leader he described the withdrawal agreement as a
“ Dead Letter”
 The Key Changes
• For a country to leave the EU is unprecedented
- The extent of the complications has slowly become evident in the last
couple of years
- EU membership is a central part of the economy and society of all its
member and unscrambling this is very complex.

Two elements
1) The UK is part of the EU customs union
- a free trade area
2) The UK is also part of the EU single market
- system of rules and regulations which allow free movement of goods,
services, people and capital.
 What’s no- deal scenario
• If there is no agreement then the UK would leaved the EU in a so
called “No Deal “
• Brexit on October 31st 2019
- Which could be chaotic as barriers to trade would go up overnight
and there would be uncertainness in areas ranging from aviation to
pharmaceuticals to cooperation in nuclear regulations
What’s the backstop
- The UK’s departure from the EU means Northern Ireland is leaving
the bloc too so checks would be required along the 499 kilometer Irish
border as different trade rules would apply north and south after brexit.
• in 1998 Belfast Agreement laid the foundation for Northern Ireland
peace process with many all-island rules and institutions.
• The Backstop is an insurance policy that the EU and UK have agreed
to include in the withdrawal agreement to avoid this happening.

The Economic Impact

• The economic impact of Brexit is negative for both the UK Ireland and
the rest of the EU.
• The biggest Impact will be in the UK itself and Ireland its closet
trading partner,
• For Ireland growth remains strong and the main short term impact
has been via a weaker sterling exchange rate.
• The main threat to brexit comes from barriers to export to the UK and also delays
and higher prices for importers of UK goods to Ireland.
• August 25th-27yh 2019- G7 summit of world leaders in Biarritz France
• September 22nd-25th 2019 – britains Labour Party holds its annual conference in
Manchester
• October 8th 2019- the last practical polling date on which a British prime minister
could hold general election or second referendum before the next Brexit deadline
• October 31st 2019- The six month extension to the article 50 process expires.
• July 1st 2020- under the draft Brexit agreement the UK and EU can,
• December 31st 2022-if the EU and UK have agreed a brexit treaty and agree a
future trading relationship
• December 31st 2022- the date the EU’s chief negotiator Michael Barnier has
proposed extending the Brexit transition to in order to allow the EU and UK
negotiate a trading deal .
Correlates of War
Pp = (C+E+M) x (S+W)
Pp = Perceived Power Projection
C = Population
E = Economic Capability
M = Military Capability
S = Strategy
W = Will
A. Population (15)
I. Total population
1 = below 500,000
2 = 500,000 – 1M
3 = 1M – 500M
4 = 500M – 1B
5 = above 1B
II. Active Military Personnel
1 = below 500,000 FACTORS IRELAND   UNITED KINGDOM
2 = 500,000 – 1M A. Population    
3 = 1M – 500M I. Total 5,068,060 3   66.04M 3
4 = 500M – 1B Population
5 = above 1B II. Active 9000 1 233,000 1
II. Reserve Forces Military
1 = below 300,000
2 = 300,000 – 450,000 Personnel
3 = 450,000 – 600,000 III. Reserve 2500 1 83,000 1
4 = 600,000M – 750,000 Forces
5 = above 750,000 Total 5 5
B. Economic Capability (15)
I. Roads and Railway
1 = 30% - 50%
2 = 50% - 80%
3 = 80% - 100%
II. Military Industries
1 = below 5
2 = 5 - 10
3 = 10 above B. Economic Capabilities    
III. Defense Budget I. Roads and 10% 1   80% 2
1 = below 10B Railways
2 = 10B – 50B
II. Military 0 1 54 3
3 = above 50B
Industries
IV. Manufacturing
Industries III. Defense 1B 1 49B 2
1 = below 10 Budget
2 = 10 - 20 IV. 20 1 140 3
3 = 20 above Manufacturing
V. Work Force Industries
1 = below 1M V. Work Force 2,366,779 2 2
29,948,413
2 = 1M – 500M
3 = 500M above TOTAL 6 12
C. Military (15)
I. Utility and Armored Vehicles
1 = below 200
2 = 200 - 500
3 = 500 above
II. Aircrafts and Helicopters C. Military    
1 = below 300 I. Utility and 124 1   5188 3
2 = 300 - 600 Armored
3 = 600 above Vehicles
Naval Ships II. Aircrafts 16 1 681 3
1 = below 30 and
2 = 30 - 50 Helicopters
3 = 50 above III. Naval 8 1 76 3
Specialized Forces Ships
1 = below 2 IV. 1 1 9 3
2=2-5 Specialized
3 = 5 above Forces
Nuclear Arsenal V. Nuclear 0 1 215 3
3 = Tactical Nuke Arsenal
TOTAL 5 15
D. Strategy (10)
I. Military Bases
1 = below 50 D. Strategy    
2 = above 50 I. Military 59 2   156 2
II. Air Bases (indl. Intl. Airports) Bases
1 = below 100
2 = above 100 II. Air Bases 40 1 460 2
III. Naval Yard (indl. Intl.
1 = below 10 Airports)
2 = above 10 III. Naval 2 1 18 2
IV. State Threats Yard
1 = above 3 states
2 = below 3 states IV. State 1 2 6 1
V. Alliances and Treaties part of Threats
1 = below 2 V. Alliances 1 1 24 2
2 = above 2 and Treaties
part of

Total 7 9
E. Will (10)
I. Total of A.II, A.III, & B.V
1 = below 1M
2 = 1M – 1.5M E. Will    
3 = 1.5M – 2M I. Total of 2,377,779 4   30,264,413 5
4 = 2M – 2.5M A.II, A.III, &
5 = above 2.5M B.V
II. Percentage of Trust to Percentage 44% 2 42% 2
Gov’t of Trust to
1 = below 30% Gov’t
2 = 30% - 50% Literacy 99% 2 99% 2
3 = 50% above Rate
III. Literacy Rate TOTAL 8 9
1 = below 50%
2 = above 50%
Computation Pp = (C+E+M) x (S+W)   Pp = (C+E+M) x (S+W)
Pp = (5+6+5) x (7+8)   Pp = (5+12+15) x (9+9)
Pp = (16) x (15)   Pp = (32) x (18)
Pp = 240 Pp = 576
 
 

Corresponding Developing Power   Regional Power

Perceived Power

Corresponding Perceived Power

Below 100 Dependent Power
100 – 300 Developing Power
300 – 500 Industrialize Power
500 – 700 Regional Power
Above 700 Super Power