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 ABSTRACT

Employment planning should be the integral part of a

firm¶s strategic and HR planning processes. Employment
or manpower planning is the process of deciding what
positions the firm will have to fill, and how to fill them. It
covers all future positions in an organization. Organization
use various techniques to identify the demand in
manpower planning.
 6ANPOWER PLANNING
6anpower planning is a process by which an organization
ensures that the right number of people and right place at
the right time doing the right things for which they are
suited for the achievement of goals of the organization. It
is must to make the optimum utilization of the greatest
resource available i.e. manpower for the success of any
organization.
 NEED OF 6ANPOWER PLANNING
¢ Shortages and surpluses can be identified.
¢ All the recruitment and selection programmes are based on
manpower planning.
¢ It also helps to reduce the labour cost as excess staff can be
identified.
¢ It also helps to identify the available talents in a concern and
accordingly training programmes can be chalked out to develop
those talents.
¢ It helps in growth and diversification of business.
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 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
¢Trend analysis
¢Bottom up technique
¢Workforce analysis
¢Delphi technique
¢Normal group techniques
¢6arkov model
 
¢ Trend analysis means studying variation in the firm¶s employment levels
over the last few years.
¢ We might compute the number of employees in the firm at the end of each
of the last five years, or perhaps the number in each subgroup (like sales,
production, secretarial, and administrative) at the end of each of those years.
¢ The purpose is to identify trends that might continue into the future.

O



This method of forecasting starts at the lowest level and progresses upwards,
through various levels of organization, till an aggregate projection for the
organization as a whole is ready.
¢ While comparing present and future needs
¢ 6arket demands
¢ 6obility of staff in the department.
  
¢ The average loss of manpower due to leave, retirement, death, transfer,
discharge etc. during the last 5 years may be taken to account.
¢ The rate of absenteeism and labor turnover should also be taken into
account.
¢ The nature of competition say from foreign banks, other non banking
financial institutions may also be considered here to find out actual
requirements in a year.



¢ Objective of Delphi technique is to predict future requirements in a
particular area by integrating judgments and opinions provided
independently by many experts.


¢ Time consuming
¢ Integration problem
  


Nominal technique is somewhat related to Delphi technique,

except for that in this case the experts sit together in face to
face situation to make forecast.


¢ Each expert is making an independent forecast
¢ All forecast are presented in one place
¢ Take less time.
   
¢ 6arkov models are being extensively used for analysis of manpower
planning systems.
¢ 6ost of these models concentrate either on estimating the gradewise
distribution of future manpower structure, given the existing structure and
promotion policies, or on deriving policies towards promotion, given the
required future structure.
¢ In many large organizations, agreements between employee unions and
management result in the framing of policies towards promotion based
either on seniority (length of service in the grade) or on performance (as in
the case of 'high fliers').
¢ These two criteria are considered in a bivariate distribution framework.
¢ The transition probabilities for promotion obtained from the 6arkov model
are further translated into required seniority and performance rating.
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¢ 6anpower is an essential resource for every organization.
¢ Proper planning must be taken to utilize the manpower effectively.
¢ Various techniques are used to forecast the manpower planning.
¢ It helps to reduce investments and achieve efficient manpower
demand and supply.
¢ It avoids the imbalance manpower in the organization such as
undersupply or oversupply of labor.
THANK YOU