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Pro-poor growth?
Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
Lecture Outline
(iii) Methodology
p p
(Yt Yt 1) /(Yt Yt 1) t 1
p p
(Yt Yt 1) /(Yt Yt 1) t , and thus t t 1
t-1 t
Time
Growth and Poverty Reduction:
Pro-poor growth?
The problem with definition (1) is that the poor’s share can
increase slightly and the richest 10% or 15% can still
cream off much more and this is pro-poor growth.
p p o p
(Yt Yt 1) /(Yt Yt 1) P N / N
What the equation is saying is that the increase in the share of the
poor’s income>share of the number of poor in the country’s
population.
Growth and Poverty Reduction:
Pro-poor growth?
Can be re-arranged so that,
p p
(Yt / N p ) (Yt / N ) (Yt 1 / N p ) (Yt 1 / N )
p p
Yt Yt Yt 1 Yt 1, or
Y p Y
Growth and Poverty Reduction:
Pro-poor growth?
The change in average income of poor>change
in average income of society.
“…focuses on accelerating the rate of income growth of the poor and thus increase
the rate of poverty reduction”
(Ravallion and Chen, 2003)
Changes in income equality have an ambiguous effect on pro-poor growth since can
impact on GDP growth.
Thus, if pro-poor growth is to accelerate then need to accelerate growth but also need
to enhance and make poor households aware of the opportunities growth generates.
Hence there is no one agreed definition of what PPG actually is….hence a huge
debate as to whether PPG has occurred or not!!
Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor
growth?
(ii) What are the Theoretical Under-pinning of Pro-
Poor Growth?
The idea here is that any growth that does occur is likely to benefit more
people if income inequality is low in the first place.
The 1970s…
Stage 3: gets to a point where per capita income increases with continued
development, income inequality declines.
Growth and Poverty Reduction:
Pro-poor growth?
Growth
Growth Leads to Inequality
Inequality 1Y 2Y 2
He found that as economic growth increased so income inequality
increased ( ) but at a decreasing rate ( ): however
unsure where1 the
ve
turning point is! 2 ve
Growth and Poverty Reduction:
Pro-poor growth?
The Redistribution with Growth economists
argued (in line with Kaldor’s growth model) that
inequality caused growth since the rich had a
higher marginal propensity to save.
E.g. Deininger and Squire (1996), Chen and Ravallion (1997), Easterly
(1999), Dollar and Kraay (2002) and Deaton (2005). According to Fields
(1989, 2001),
“…income inequality increased in about half the growth spells and declined
in the other half.”
(World Bank, 2005, pp.17)
Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
This means that any growth benefits the rich only and
tends to be skills-biased and capital intensive, thus
the poor have no chance of getting a piece of the
expanding pie: relative poverty increasing.
East-Asia growth of the 1960s and beyond has seen no conflict between
growth and income distribution, meaning income inequality remains constant
as growth increased.
(1) The mechanism given for this ‘income inequality-neutral’ path is that low
initial income inequality results in more evenly distributed economic growth.
The reason is that consumption expenditure patterns are similar amongst the
poor for goods which they themselves produce hence generating demand for
these labour-intensive products: hence mass consumption takes off rather than
consumption being driven by the minority.
(2) Also the case that savings of the poor can be channelled if appropriate
investment opportunities are in evidence.
Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
(iii) Methodology
Regress changes in income of the poor as a share of changes in total income of country,
p p
(Yt Yt 1) /(Yt Yt 1)
and changes in share of income of the poor,
p p
(Yt / Yt ) (Yt 1 / Yt 1)
onto a number of regressors that include, change in GDP per capita, change in trade openness
dummy, change government expenditure as share of GDP, change in political rights and civil
liberties, and change in life expectancy.
Why 2 dependent variables? Dependent variable 1 can be affected by outliers represented by large
changes in incomes of the poorest groups when total income for the country has increased. Changes
in the poor’s share of income gets around this issue.
Growth and Poverty Reduction:
Pro-poor growth?
White and Anderson (2001) – (cont…)
Find that growth negatively impacts on the poor – only the poorest 40%
though. Implication is there is a trade-off between growth and distribution
which contradicts World Bank thinking.
The Model
The key thing is the coefficient on yct . This represents the elasticity of income
of the poorest quintile with respect to mean income.
Control for 4 policy interventions that are likely to positively contribute to PPG:
(1) primary educational attainment (2) public spending on health and education,
(3) labour productivity in agriculture relative to rest of economy and (4) formal
democratic institutions.
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
When the gini index is introduced linearly there is no relationship with growth (0.000) – Model 1.
When the gini index is interacted with log(GDP) – a proxy for economic development – then we see
a negative relationship between income inequality and growth (-0.328) but that when log(GDP) is
higher the relationship is actually positive (0.043) – Model 2.
Implication is that at lower levels of log(GDP) income inequality does significantly impact on
growth rates.
Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
Summary
Still no consensus.
Some find that changes in income are not correlated with changes in inequality
means that any growth in income does not appear to have any impact on inequality
and impacts positively on absolute poverty, (see Fields, 1989 and 2001).
Dollar and Kraay (2002) find that growth of the country positively effects growth
of income of the poor – implication is that growth is thus crucial for reducing
absolute poverty and the number of absolutely poor.
White and Anderson (2001) find that when dependent variable takes a ‘relative’
form that growth negatively effects the share the poorest in a country have of GDP.
Barro (2000) finds that income inequality can impact on growth rates of very poor
countries only.
Growth and Poverty Reduction:
Pro-poor growth?
(V) Policies for pro-poor growth?
Killick (2002) mentions a wish list that would enhance pro-poor growth:
• Initial income and asset inequality – if high then can have negative
impact on pro-poor growth.
• Must re-distribute…but how? Land reform not land grab, transfer
payments in the form of state pensions to the poor.
• Importance of agriculture to the poor. Need to improve the efficiency of
agriculture (e.g. technology, co-operatives, training, access to financial
markets).
• Since agriculture is affected by climactic conditions there needs to be a
risk management structure in place to protect poor farmers but which do
encourage more risk-taking – (Q) Are poor farmers likely to be risk-
takers?
• Delivery of services and capacity of institutions to deliver to the poor –
issue of corruption.
Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
References
Dollar, D., and Kraay, A., (2002), “Growth is Good for the Poor”, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol 7, pp. 195-225.
Fields, G., (1989) “Changes in Poverty and Inequality in Developing Countries”, World Bank Research Observer 4(2), 167-
85.
Fields, G., (2001) Distribution and Development: A New Look at the Developing World, MIT Press.
Kakwani and Pernia (2000) “What is pro-poor growth?”, Asian Development Review, Vol 18(1), 1-16.
OECD 2001 “Rising to the Global Challenge: Partnership for Reducing World Poverty.” Statement by the DAC High Level
Meeting, April 25-26, Paris
Ravallion and Chen (2003) “Measuring Pro-Poor Growth.” Economic Letters Vol 78(1), p3-99.
White and Anderson (2001) “Growth vs Redistribution: Does the pattern of growth matter?.”, Development Policy Review,
Vol 19(3), 167-289.
World Bank, (2005), Pro-Poor Growth in the 1990s Lessons and Insights from 14 Countries.