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This presentation was part of the Applied Sampling Workshop at the

Annual TRB Conference in Washington DC in January 2004.
 º
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‡ There is no uniform standard of quality that
must be reached by every sample.
‡ The quality of the sample depends entirely on
the stage of the research and how the
information will be used.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

   

‡ 
 is a monthly survey of households.
‡ It provides data on the labor force, employment,
unemployment, and persons not in the labor force.
‡ This is a precise and controlled sample since it is the
only source of monthly estimates of total employment
and unemployment.
‡ The sampling error for this kind of sample is about 0.1
percent

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

     
 
‡ A sample of 500 Illinois residents over 18 years of age
were selected. Although to achieve equal sample
reliability, the sample size for a state or local
geographic area would need to be virtually as large as
if the study were a national sample of the US, one
generally finds that local samples are smaller. That is,
although the public attitudes toward safety belt issues
are as important, the level of research funds available
is smaller for a state than for a national study.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

   a 

‡ Whether or not a sample design is
appropriate depends on how it is used and
the resources available. It may be fair to
say that the sample generalizations made
from the sample go too far.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT


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a 
‡ DEGREE OF ACCURACY
‡ RESOURCES
‡ TIME
‡ ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE OF THE
POPULATION
‡ NATIONAL VERSUS LOCAL
‡ NEED FOR STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT
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‡ 
 
±  
 



 
±    


 
  
±        
‡ 
 
 

±
 
 
±     
‡      
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT
Stages in the Define the target Population
Selection
of a Sample Select a sampling frame

Determine if probability or non-probability sampling will be chosen

Plan procedures for selecting sampling units

Determine sample size

Select actual sampling units

Conduct field work

   

‡ RELEVANT POPULATION

‡ OPERATIONALY DEFINE

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 
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‰ DEFINITION OF TARGET POPULATION
± Complete set of individuals from which information is
collected
‡ TARGET AREA
± Entire region or set of locations from which
information is collected
‡ Example: define population for a study of elderly in
Springfield, IL
‡ How will you distinguish the elderly from the non-
elderly?
‡ Will the elderly be defined by occupational categories?
Do you want retired people? Or do you want persons
over 65 and retired?
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT
 a a
‡ A LIST OF ELEMENTS FROM
WHICH SAMPLE MAY BE DRAWN
‡ WORKING POPULATION
‡ MAILING LIST--DATABASE
‡ SAMPLING FRAME ERROR

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 
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CONSTRUCTION OF OPERATIONAL SAMPLING FRAME
‡ List of all subjects in the population
‡ Specific definition of population
‡ Wish to have a sampling frame that is almost or exactly
identical to the entire population

‡ Example: use of telephone surveys of voter preferences for

political parties
‡ Population of interest: all voters
± Sampling frame: all voters with a telephone and who
answer it
‡ SAMPLED POPULATION ± set of all individuals contained in
the sampling frame, from which the sample is actually taken.
‡ SAMPLED AREA ± set of all locations within the study area
boundary line that delimits the spatial sampling frame, from
which the sample is drawn
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT
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‡ GROUP SELECTED FOR THE SAMPLE
‡ PRIMARY SAMPLING UNIT (PSU)
‡ SECONDARY SAMPLING UNIT
‡ TERTIARY SAMPLING UNIT

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 a  
‡ SAMPLING FRAME ERROR (STUDY
DESIGN)
‡ RANDOM SAMPLING ERROR
(SAMPLING VARIABILITY)
‡ NONRESPONSE ERROR
(MEASUREMENT BIASES)

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 aa  
‡ DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SAMPLE
RESULT AND THE RESULT OF A
CENSUS CONDUCTED USING
IDENTICAL PROCEDURES
‡ STATISTICAL FLUCTUATION DUE TO
CHANCE VARIATIONS

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 a 
‡ NONSAMPLING ERRORS
‡ UNREPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE
RESULTS
‡ NOT DUE TO CHANCE
‡ DUE TO STUDY DESIGN OR
IMPERFECTIONS IN EXECUTION

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

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à  à
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‡ Under-representation
± poor, homeless, prison inmates
± opinion polls over telephones will miss 6% of
population that do not have phones
‡ Non-response
± when selected individuals are not contacted or do not
respond
± usually 30%
± results in bias
‡ Interviewing skills - important not to introduce bias
± types of questions asked
± attitude during interviewing
± wording of questions - confusing, misleading,
intimidating
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Sampling
Error

Ron-sampling Error

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 
  a 
‡ PROBABILITY SAMPLING

‡ NONPROBABILITY SAMPLING

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

    
a 
‡ CONVENIENCE
‡ JUDGMENT
‡ QUOTA
‡ SNOWBALL

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

  a 
‡ SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLE
‡ SYSTEMATIC RANDOM SAMPLE
‡ STRATIFIED SAMPLE
‡ CLUSTER SAMPLE
‡ MULTISTAGE RANDOM SAMPLE

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

  a 

‡ Obtaining a sample of people or units

that are most convenient.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 Gaa 

‡ Selecting a sample based on

judgment of an individual about
some appropriate characteristics
required from the sample member.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 m a 
‡ Requires that the various subgroups in a
population are represented .
‡ It should not be confused with stratified
sampling.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 
a 
‡ Requires additional respondents are
obtained from information provided by the
initial sample of respondents.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 Gaa 

‡ Selecting a sample based on

judgment of an individual about
some is appropriate.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 

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‡ A sampling procedure that ensures that
each element in the population will have
an equal chance of being included in the
sample.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

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‡ Assign each element within the sampling frame
a unique number (1-99).
‡ Identify a random start from the random number
table.
‡ Determine how the digits in the random number
table will be assigned to the sampling frame.
‡ Select the sample elements from the sampling
frame.
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT
  
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‡ Identify the total number of elements in the

population
‡ Identify the sampling ratio K/n (K=total
population size/n=size of desired sample)
‡ identify the random start.
‡ Draw a sample by choosing every kth entry

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT




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Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

  a
a 
‡ Sub-samples are drawn within different
strata.
‡ Each stratum in more or less equal on
some characteristics.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

   
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‡ Make a sample more efficient since
variance differs between the strata.
‡ Reduce sampling error between strata.
‡ Reduce number of cases required in order
to achieve a given degree of accuracy.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 

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‡ Proportionate Stratified Random Sample

‡ Disproportionate Stratified Random

Sample

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT


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‡ It is used to get a more representative sample
than might be expected under SRS.
‡ Reduces sampling errors between strata with
respect to the relative numbers selected. This
is true when we have homogeneous groups.
‡ Population strata must be known in order to
draw a proportionate stratified sample.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

    
 aa 
‡ It is used to manipulate the number of cases
selected in order to improve efficiency of the
design.
‡ The main interest is to study separate sub-
populations represented by the strata rather
than on the entire population
‡
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT
  a  
 aa 
‡ More popular examples are
demographics, Age, Gender, Race,
Region, Road type, Urban/Rural.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 m IGHTING TH SAMPL
‡ Reason for weighting is to correct
problems associated with sample
bias (sampling and non-sampling ).
‡ Known Sampling biases, such as
household selected by random digit
dialing will have more than one
phone number.
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT
 m IGHTING PROC SS

‡ Assign a weight that is equal to the

inverse of its probability of
selection. In this case, where all
sample elements have had the
same chance of selection, given
the same weight: 1. (This is called
self-weighting sample)

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 m IGHTING
AMPL

eig ted am le ected amle

(Based o Polatio
No m
ite Total No m
ite Total

ite 
ite
›emale 12.3% 56.7% 69% 7.2% 57.7% 65%
Male 9.8% 21.2% 31% 3.8% 31.2% 35%
Total 22% 78% 100% 11% 89% 100%

Ronwhite ›emale weight =7.2/12.3=0.59

Ronwhite Male weight =3.8/9.8=0.39
White ›emale weight = 57.7/56.7=1.02
White Male weight = 31.2/21.2=1.47

Divisio of Traffic afety at IDOT

 



   




   


‡ Compute values for each strata and then weight
them based on the relative size of the stratum
in the population.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 
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â 
á â á
á 1
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT
 Data for Computing Parameter
stimates from Stratifie Samples
County Total
1 2 3
Size of County (M i 10,000 15,000 25,000 50,000 (=M

meight (mi 2 3 5 100

Size of sample (Ni 50 50 50 150

_ 3,100 4,300 3,800

Sample Mean (
i

Sample Stan ar 500 400 300

Deviation (Si
 Estimated Standard Errors
500
County 1: 1
71.4
R
1 49

County 2: 400
2
57.1
R
1 49

County 3: 300
3
42.9
R
1 49

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 Estimated ean and Variance

X O .20(3,100) .30(4,300) .50(3,800) O 3,810

2 2 2 2 2 2 2
mÖâ O (.20) (71.4) (.30) (57.1) (.50) ( 42.9) O 957.5

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 a 

‡ Divide population into a large number of

groups, called clusters and then sample
among clusters. Finally select all
individuals within those clusters.
‡ The main reason for cluster sampling is to
sample economically while retaining the
characteristics of a probability sample.
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT


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‡ Single -Stage Cluster sampling--Divide population into
several hundred census tracts and then select 40
tracts as a sample. Then select every individuals
within selected census tracts.
‡ Multistage Cluster Sampling--Take a random sample
of census tracts within a city. Then within each
selected census tract we take a simple random
sample of blocks (smaller clusters). Finally we might
select every third house and interview every second
adult within each of these households

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 

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 Arrange clusters in a desire order (not
necessarily by size)
 btain the size data
 Sum up the size measures over clusters
 Determine sampling interval
 Select a random start

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

  
  
 



 



‡ Although both types of sample involve divide population into

groups, they involve in a opposite sampling operations.
‡ In a stratified sample, we sample individuals within every
stratum. The sampling errors involve variability within strata.
Strata are supposed to be homogeneous as possible and as
different as possible from each other.
‡ In (single-stage ) cluster sampling, we have no source of
sampling error within the clusters because every case is being
used. The variability is between the clusters.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

  
  
 




 




‡ Cluster sample is less efficient than the simple random
samples of the same size. But it may cost
considerably less.

‡ The efficiency can be measured in terms of the size of

standard error of estimate, a small standard error
indicates high efficiency.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 

 




 




mâ  2
O1 á ( R ¦ 1)
mâ 2


These are the variances of the means for cluster and simple random
samples, Pi represents the population intra-class correlation, and R
the mean number of cases selected from each of the cluster
 a
a 
‡ Stratification techniques within the clusters
will be used to refine and improve the
sample. Examples of this kind of
sampling Census, National Safety Belt
Survey.

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT





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a




  



 a 

‡ DETERMINE SAMPLE SIZE

‡ SELECT ACTUAL SAMPLE UNIT

‡ CONDUCT FIELD WORK

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 



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‡ Importance of the research or the gains and
losses associated with alternative decisions
‡ Previous example of sample sizes used in
social sciences
‡ Confidence Level to be used
‡ Degree of accuracy within which we wish to
estimate the parameter.
‡ Some reasonable estimate of the values of
any parameters that may appear in the
formula.
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT
 






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‡ Mean Value
‡ Standard Error
‡ Accuracy level
‡ Confidence Level

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

  
   




  





 1.96
Accuracy Level = — .1
ƒ
ƒR
.1
 (Standard deviation of Population)

.1 1.96
Confidence level = 95 R
2.5
Example: Determining a sample size to .1 1.96
R
estimate the mean number of schooling
completed by persons with foreign-born 2.5
R 1.96
Parents. .1
R 2,401

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

  
   




     
 



Accuracy Level plus or (  )(  )
minus 5 percent (95 O  



R
confidence level)

Steps: (  )(  )
2 OR
 



A. .05/1.96=.0255102
. 25
B. (.0255102)2 =.0006507 O 384
. 0006507
Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT




 



‡ Point Estimation: Estimating Population mean using Sample
Mean
± Bias: Estimate is unbiased if the mean of its sampling
distribution is equal to value of the parameter being
estimated
—
± Efficiency of an Estimate: It refers to the degree to which
the sampling distribution is clustered about the true value
of the parameter. The smaller the the standard error, the
greater the efficiency of the estimate.
‡ Interval Estimation: It refers to interval estimation of
population parameter.
± Actual procedure used to obtain an interval estimate is
Confidence Interval.
 

 
  




 1.96
 1.96
R

5
15  1.96 15  0.98
100

Vnterval would run between 14.02 to 15.98 using 95 percent Confidence level

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 

 
  

 

⠗ 2.797mÖ O ⠗ 2.797
R ¦1

12
52 — 2.797 O 52 — 6.85
24

Vnterval would run between 45.15 to 58.85 using 99 percent Confidence level

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT

 

 
  

 
  




— 2.33
R
(.55)(.45)
O .55 — 2.33 O .55 — 0.1037
125

Vnterval would run between 45.15 to 58.85 using 99 percent Confidence level

Division of Traffic Safety at IDOT