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Geopolitica Marilor Puteri: Rusia

Geopolitica rusă
• Mărimea Rusiei europene a determinat în mare parte
influenţa sa pentru geopolitica internaţională timp de
secole, aşa cum Mackinder a recunoscut rolul Rusiei în
definirea Heartland;
• Geopolitica Rusiei derivă în mare parte din percepţia
Rusiei despre sine ca fiind vulnerabilă, izolată şi
periferică;
• Petru cel Mare şi succesorii săi au stabilit reperele
tradiţionale ale politicii internaţionale ruseşti:
– frontiere sigure;
– acces la porturi cu apă caldă;
– eliminarea dependenţei economice;
– expansiunea către est.
Geopolitica rusă
• Alungarea ţarilor şi înfiinţarea Uniunii Sovietice au adus
schimbări fundamentale în abordarea geopolitică a
Rusiei;
• Stalin – “socialismul într-o singură ţară”; Trotski –
“revoluţia socialistă internaţională”;
• 1917-1991, geopolitica a fost considerată ca fiind
apanajul „democraţiilor burgheze”, iar promotorii “lachie
ai imperialismului”;
• Doctrina Brezhnev – “revoluţia fără frontiere”; controlul
sovietic asupra Europei de Est era ireversibil;
• Doctrina Sinatra – Ghenady Gherasimov, 1989 – ţările
est europene “could do it their way”.
Domnul Presedinte Putin conectat la geopolitica
DIVERGENTA GEOPOLITICA DUPA 1991
DE CE RUSIA PREFERA “CONFLICTELE INGHETATE”?

• De la disparitia Uniunii Sovietice s-au inregistrat multiple “conflicte


inghetate” in regiune care au implicat dezmembrarea unor mici
teritorii cu sprijin militar rusesc. Acestea sunt definite ca “o
situatie in care conflictul armat activ s-a terminat, dar in lipsa unui
tratat de pace sau altui cadru politic care sa rezolve conflictul in
interesul combatantilor. Termenul a fost utilizat in special pentru
conflictele post-sovietice din Asia Centrala, dar a fost deseori
utilizat anterior cu privire la alte dispute teritoriale.

• Nagorno-Karabakh
• Ossetia de Sud si Abkhazia
• Transnistria
ARMENIA SI AZERBAIDJAN

For Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, conflict resolution means


self-determination of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, but
for Azerbaijan, it means the restoration of its jurisdiction over
the territory of the former autonomous region and seven
adjacent districts that are now controlled by Armenian forces.
On the political and legal level, this is a conflict between the
right of nations to self-determination and territorial integrity.
During all the years of negotiations, the parties to the conflict
were offered many ways out of this impasse. However, neither
Yerevan nor Baku has shown any interest in anything more
than a zero-sum game.
Meanwhile, the sharp increase in tensions in the summer of
2014 would have been much less problematic, if not for the
serious deterioration in relations between Russia and the West.
Unlike the situation in Georgia, for many years the Nagorno-
Karabakh process had been presented almost as a “success
story.” Resolution of this conflict was never considered as an
arena for competition between Moscow and Washington.
Moreover, the three mediator countries (US, France, Russia)
more than once came to a consensus on what should be the
basis for the settlement of the conflict. The presidents of these
three countries even expressed their willingness to support and
promote the so-called “Madrid Principles” as a basis for future
agreements.
However, the West and Russia now find themselves on
different sides of a great Eurasian geopolitical game. The
Ukrainian crisis has made them hostages of this geopolitical
game, in the sense that even those issues on which they had
made significant progress are now being set aside (including
Afghanistan, the Middle East, and conflicts in the post-Soviet
space).
RUSIA SI GEORGIA
Abkhazia – was a resort area on the Black Sea during
Soviet times.  Ethnic tensions between Abkhaz and
Georgians led to the region declaring itself independent in
December 1992.  Russian military intervened to protect
Abkhazia and defeat the Georgian army.  This war resulted
in 23,000 dead and 250,000 Georgian refugees who fled
the region.  After the end of the war in 1993, Abkhazia
continued to act as an independent country although
negotiations with Georgia continued for years but never
yielded any constructive results.  The August 2008
Russian invasion of Georgia resulted in Abkhaz forces
taking control of the Kodori Gorge on the Georgia side of
the border to expand their territory and de facto, solidified
Abkhazia’s status as separate entity from Georgia.  Russia
maintains up to 3500 soldiers in the region.  Abkhazia’s
population is between 180,000 and 240,000 (Abkhazia’s
official count which is disputed).  The Abkhaz make up the
largest part of the population now but with significant
Armenian and Russian populations.  Prior to the 1992-93
war, the region was roughly 45% Abkhaz, 45% Georgian
and 10% Armenian.
South Ossetia – is a small, landlocked region of Georgia on the Russia border.  Inhabited by ethnic Ossetians, the region
declared independence in November 1991.  Georgia sent the army to quell the secession movement in 1991-1992 and it
resulted in 1000 dead and 125,000 refugees.  Almost 100,000 of those refugees fled north through the Roki Tunnel (the
main highway transit point between Russia and Georgia into the Republic province of North Ossetia.   Following a Russian
organized cease fire, the region became de facto semi-autonomous within Georgia but peaceful until the summer of
2004.  That year skirmishes began taking place as the new Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili  pledged to bring the
region fully back into Georgia.  After weeks of mortars and gunfire, war broke out on August 8, 2008 initially resulting in
the Georgian army capturing Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. However they were forced to retreat by a Russian
counterattack the next day.  The conflict left around 500 dead and approximately 45,000 refugees.  Prior to the war, about
30% of the population was Georgian and located primarily in the rural areas.  Now though, South Ossetia’s population of
55,000 persons is more than 90% Ossetian with Russians as a small minority.  Russian has a lease on a military base in
South Ossetia and has up to 3500 soldiers stationed there.
RUSIA SI REPUBLICA MOLDOVA

Transdniestria is a landlocked region between the


Dniester River on the Ukrainian side and Moldova. 
During Soviet times, most of Moldova’s heavy industry
was located here and all Communist era Presidents of
Moldova came from this region.  Following
independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, tensions
broke out and Transdniestria declared its
independence from Moldova. This resulted in a war in
1992 that killed 800 persons. Since that time, the
Russian 14th Army has been stationed there with
around 1500 soldiers.  The population is 509,000 and
broken down as follows: 32% Moldovan, 30% Russian,
29% Ukrainian, 3% Bulgarian, 6% other.  It is often
referred to as “the world’s largest duty free zone” due
to the large amount of contraband that is smuggled in
and out of the region including cigarettes, alcohol,
weapons, drugs and human beings.  The nearby
Odessa port in Ukraine acts as a conduit for much of
the traffic.