Evolutia euro si extinderea UE

Criterii de convergenţă nominală pentru adoptarea monedei unice Euro

Stabilitatea preţurilor: nivelul mediu al inflaţiei din ultimele 12
luni (calculat prin indicele preţurilor de consum) nu trebuie să
depăşească cu mai mult de 1,5 puncte procentuale nivelul inflaţiei
din primele trei state cu cele mai reduse nivele ale ratei inflaţiei; în
plus, ratele inflaţiei din ţara candidată trebuie să se dovedească a fi
sustenabile.
Ratele dobânzii: Randamentul mediu al titlurilor de stat pe
termen lung calculat pe ultimele 12 luni nu trebuie să depăşească cu
mai mult de 2 puncte procentuale randamentul aferent titlurilor de
stat din primele trei state cu cele mai reduse niveluri ale inflaţiei;

Finanţele publice: poziţia bugetară a unei ţări trebuie să fie

sustenabilă, respectiv să nu existe un deficit bugetar excesiv. În
particular: (i) deficitul bugetar consolidat al statului nu trebuie să
depăşească nivelul stabilit în Tratat de 3 la sută din PIB; dacă
această valoare este depăşită, deficitul bugetar trebuie să fie redus
substanţial şi continuu, către o valoare apropiată de cea de
referinţă, sau depăşirea valorii de referinţă să fie temporară şi
excepţională, şi (ii) datoria publică brută nu trebuie să depăşească
60% din PIB, sau dacă are valori mai mari trebuie să se diminueze
semnificativ şi să se apropie de valoarea de referinţă într-un ritm
satisfăcător;

Cursurile de schimb: trebuie să se menţină în marjele de

fluctuaţie convenite prin mecanismul ratelor de schimb din cadrul
Sursa: Banca Naţională a României
 Monetary integration plans of EU Member States outside the Euro area

Country Intentions for ERM II Intentions for euro adoption

Bulgaria As soon as possible Aims to adopt the euro as soon as possible

Czech ERM II participation for only the minimum The latest update of the “Czech Republic’s
Republic period of two years ahead of EMU entry. euro area accession strategy”, approved by the
Inflation targeting will be retained until Czech authorities in August 2007, states that
monetary integration completed. The readiness some of the preconditions needed for
to join ERM II and the euro area is assessed onbenefiting from the adoption of the euro have
a yearly basis jointly by the government and yet to achieve satisfactory parameters. The
the national central bank. main obstacles relate to the need to enhance
the flexibility of the economy and fiscal policy
consolidation.

Denmark Participating No current plans. Referendum on euro

adoption in September 2000 resulted in a 53%
“no” vote.
Estonia Participating Aims to adopt the euro as soon as possible

Latvia Participating Aims to adopt the euro as soon as possible

Lithuania Participating Aims to adopt the euro as soon as possible
Hungary The Convergence Programme update does not The Convergence Programme does not contain
contain any desired ERM II entry date. It only any desired euro area entry date.
states that participation in ERM II should be
made conditional upon the restoration of fiscal
credibility.
Poland ERM II participation for only the The Convergence Programme does not specify the
minimum period of two years. No explicit target date for euro adoption.
target date for ERM II entry.

Romania According to the 2007 Convergence Not before 2014.

Programme there are no intentions to
join ERM II before 2012. Aims to stay in
the ERM II for the minimum required
period before adopting the euro.

Slovakia Participating. Aims to meet the fiscal reference value in 2007 and to
join the euro area in 2009.

Sweden No current plans. No current plans. Referendum in September 2003 on

euro adoption resulted in a 56% “no” vote.

United No current plans. As soon as government’s five tests are fulfilled.

Kingdom

Five EU Member States currently outside the euro area are participating in ERM II. The two countries joined the
mechanism on different dates, some of them with unilateral exchange rate commitments. On 1 January 1999, Denmark
entered ERM II with a fluctuation band of +/- 2.25% around its currency’s central exchange rate. On 28 June 2004, Estonia,
Lithuania (and also Slovenia) joined. Both Estonia and Lithuania joined with a +/- 15% fluctuation band. These countries
additionally decided to continue with their currency board arrangements as a unilateral commitment.
On 2 May 2005, Latvia joined ERM II (together with Cyprus and Malta). Latvia also decided to join with a +/- 15%
fluctuation band, but has continued to keep a fluctuation band of +/- 1% as a unilateral commitment. Finally, on 25
November 2005, Slovakia joined ERM II, participating with a +/- 15% fluctuation band.
Currently, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden are the only EU Member States with a
derogation that have not yet entered ERM II.

Sursa: European Central Bank, Monthly Bulletin – 10th Anniversary of the ECB, June 2008
EUR - USD