Climate Change Impacts, Threats,

and Vulnerabilities:
The Philippine Setting
Leoncio A.Amadore, Ph.D.

DFA Auditorium
Manila, 18 April 2007
Observed Climate Change-Related Changes (IPCC, SPM-1, 2007)

Warming of
the climate
system is
unequivocal, as
is now evident from
observations of
increases in:

1. global average
air and ocean
temperatures
2. rising global
mean sea level
3. widespread
melting of snow
and ice
 Signals of Climate Change …
Observed Climate-related Events (IPCC-SPM1,2 - 2007)
• Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among
the 12 warmest years (since 1850, instrument record).
The updated 100-year linear trend (1906–2005) is now
0.74°C
• Hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more
frequent over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold nights
and frost have become less frequent
• More intense and longer droughts have been observed
over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the
tropics and subtropics. El Niño phenomena have been
more frequent, persistent and intense since the mid-
1970s .
• Increase in frequency of heavy precipitation
events over most areas and intense tropical
cyclone activity
Signals of Climate Change …
• Average temperature of the global ocean
has increased to depths of at least 3000 m;
the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of
the heat added to the climate system

• Global average sea level rose at an average

rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003.
The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003, about 3.1
mm per year, very likely due to losses from the ice
sheets of Greenland and Antarctica

• Mountain glaciers and snow cover have

declined on average in both hemispheres.
 Climate Change Signals, Impacts
and Vulnerabilities –the Philippine Setting
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN
THE PHILIPPINES • Surface temperature increase
and sea level rise are
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY

2.5
2.0
1.5 y = 0.0143x - 0.206 consistent with global trends.
Hot days and hot nights have
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
become more frequent
-2.0
-2.5 • Deadly and damaging
typhoons, floods, flash
-3.0
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00
YEAR
floods, landslides, severe El
Niño and La Niña events,
drought, forest fires, etc.
occurred more frequently,
since 1980.
• Agriculture; fresh water,
coastal and marine
resources; health, etc,
adversely affected
 Vulnerability to Drought (El Nino) of Major
Agriculture Crops

Note that 1982-83, 1989-90 and1997-98 were El Nino

Years
 Effect of Typhoons on the GDP and Agriculture

Agriculture is the Sector most affected by tropical cyclones.

The highest ratio of tropical cyclone damage to agricultural
output was 4.21% in 1990, followed in 1988 by 4.05%.
Typhoon damage rose to more than 1% of GDP in 1984,
1988, and 1.17%, the highest, in 1990. (Data source: NDCC/NSCB, 2003)
Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change

• The frequency of
occurrence of extreme
events affects the
rainfall and inflow
patterns of the
reservoirs.
• Annual inflow at Angat
dam were most
deficient during the
1983-84 and 1997-98
strong El Niños (resulted
in water rationing in Metro
Manila)
• During the 70s, more
cold, La Nina-type
episodes dominated
resulting to a relatively
moist decade
Health in relation to Weather/Climate Parameters

• Many vector-, food-,

and water-borne
infectious diseases
are sensitive to
changes in climatic
conditions
• Rainfall and
humidity data
could be useful
indicators of rise in
dengue and other
vector/water borne
infectious cases)
 Vulnerability of Coastal (Marine) Resources to Warming

• The diversity of corals

could be affected with the
branching corals (e.g., staghorn coral)
decreasing or becoming locally extinct
and the massive corals (e.g., brain
corals) increasing (WGII TAR, 2001)

• Massive coral bleaching in

various reefs through- out
the Philippines during the
severe 1997-98 ENSO
episode (Arceo, H.O. et al., 2001)
• Fish kills and high
mortality of cultured giant
clams, severe red tide
outbreaks after strong El
Niño periods. The worst incidence
of red tide in Manila Bay occurred in
1992, another El Niño period.
Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events
• The Ormoc catastrophic
flash flood (November 5, 1991):
More than 5000 people perished.
Unusually heavy, continuous rains
brought by Trop.Storm Uring
caused landslides and flashfloods
and dam-break-like effect at the
collapse of Anilao Bridge
• Cherry Hill tragedy (August 1999):
Three consecutive days of
persistent moderate to heavy rains
caused mud to cascade into the
Cherry Hill leaving 378 houses
damaged and 58 people killed
• Baguio-La Trinidad
Payatas garbage-slide (July landslides (July 2001): A record-
10, 2000): Continuous moderate to breaking 24-hour rainfall of 1085.8
heavy monsoon rains over Metro millimeters was registered at
Manila for several days caused the Baguio City causing widespread
collapse of the Payatas garbage pile, landslides and flashfloods, killing
resulting in 224 deaths and 100 85 persons in Baguio and La
houses destroyed Trinidad area alone.
 Extreme Weather Events: Tragedies after tragedies…
• Camiguin flashfloods (November 7,
2001): Heavy continuous rains for
about 10 hours caused flashfloods
carrying landslide debris of boulders,
uprooted trees, loose soil, etc. rushing
from the mountainside burying 134
residents alive and damaging
vegetation and structures.
• Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster
(December 2003): Several landslides
and flash-floods in Mindanao and
Southern Leyte caused by days of
persistent rains resulted in 198 deaths
in S. Leyte and Mindanao (Agusan-
Surigao)
• Aurora-Infanta floods
(November-December 2004): Heavy
rains triggered major landslides;
cleansed the forests of its debris
resulting in heavy damage and
casualty downstream along rivers and
coastal areas in eastern Luzon (1,068
dead, damage estimate - P7,615.98M)
 Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events

Recently, heavy, continuous rains caused massive

landslides in:
• Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte
• Legaspi, Albay

These extreme weather events have one

thing in common – persistent torrential
rains, causing landslides and flash floods,
killing people and destroying properties
along its path.
 What to expect in the 21st Century?
(IPCC-TAR, 2001, SPM1.2, 2007)

• Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights, heat

waves over most land areas (virtually certain)
• Frequency of heavy precipitation events increases over
most areas (very likely) resulting in increased flood,
landslide, soil erosion, mudslide, etc
• Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, mean
and peak precipitation intensities are likely, in some
areas.
• More intense droughts and floods associated with El
Niño events in many different regions are likely to occur.
• Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would
continue for centuries, even if greenhouse gas
concentrations were to be stabilized.
• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per
decade is projected
 Future Climate Change Impacts/Risks
(IPCC/SPM 1&2, 2007)

• Fresh water resources and their management - Increase in

water demand, in drought-affected areas.and in heavy precipitation/flood risk
Increase in water availability at higher latitudes, decrease in some tropics
• Ecosystems - The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded
this century. Increased risk of extinction of some plant and animal species if
increases in global temperature exceed 1.5-2.5°C.
• Food, fibre and forest products - At lower latitudes, crop
productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases
(1-2°C), which would increase risk of hunger.
• Industry, Settlement and Society - The most vulnerable industries,
settlements and societies are generally those in coastal and river flood plains, in
areas prone to extreme weather events and poor communities.
• Coastal systems and low-lying areas - Millions of people in the
mega-deltas of Asia and Africa and in small islands are projected to be flooded
every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Corals are vulnerable to thermal
stress and low adaptive capacity. More frequent coral bleaching events…
• Health - Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the
health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive
capacity; increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods,
storms, fires and droughts.
 Causes and Attributions…
• Most of the observed
increase in the globally
averaged temperature
since the mid-20th
century is very likely due
to the observed increase
in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas (GHG)
Philippine GHG emission compared to other
concentrations (SPM1, 2007)
countries • Even if the Philippines
will not burn a single
drop of oil, it cannot
Energy
Waste 49%
7%

prevent climate
change!
• International
cooperation is the
Agriculture
33%
Industry
11%
key to climate
The Energy “Pie” of the Philippines, 1990 change mitigation
 The way forward…
• Lessen the impacts of climate change:
Undertake systematic physical, social and
economic vulnerability assessments and
adopt appropriate adaptation measures;
(extreme weather events and sea level rise
scenarios should be given priority, due to our
unique geographical setting and our proneness to
storm surges); improve the warning system and disaster
management; upgrade climate change awareness; incorporate
appropriate measures into national development plans, etc.
• Adopt mitigation measures to lessen greenhouse
gas emissions: shift in energy mix, adoption of energy
efficiency measures ( no regrets actions resulting in
positive ancillary benefits)
 The way forward…

• Participate in the Clean Development

Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto
Protocol and other international
cooperation ventures