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SIX SIGMA
IS A HIGHLY STRUCTURED STRATEGY FOR ACQUIRING,
ASSESSING, AND ACTIVATING CUSTOMER, COMPETITOR, AND ENTERPRISE INTELLIGENCE LEADING TO SUPERIOR PRODUCT, SYSTEM, OR ENTERPRISE INNOVATIONS AND DESIGNS THAT PROVIDE A SUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE.
DEPARTMENT
OF STATISTICS
Quantitative Analysis:
We must consider both cash inflows (revenues) and
Cash inflows are generated by product sales. Cash outflows include spending on product and process development,
costs of production ramp-up such as equipment purchases & tooling, costs of marketing and supporting the product, and ongoing productions costs such as raw materials, components & labor.
Qualitative Analysis:
Quantitative analysis can capture only measurable factors, yet projects typically have both positive and adverse aspects that are difficult to quantify. It is often difficult for quantitative analysis to capture important characteristics of a dynamic and competitive environment. Thus quantitative analysis alone is often incomplete and must be augmented by qualitative analysis. In qualitative analysis we will specifically consider interactions between: the project and the firm; the project and the market; and the project and the macroeconomic environment.
1. Build a base-case financial model. 2. Perform a sensitivity analysis to understand the relationships between financial success and the key assumptions and variables of the model. 3. Use sensitivity analysis to understand trade-offs. 4. Consider the influence of the qualitative factors on project success.
The most basic categories of cash flow for a typical new product development project are: Development Cost (all remaining design, testing, & refinement costs up to the production ramp-up) Ramp-up Cost Marketing & Support Cost Production Cost Sales Revenues. Refinements may include:
Breakdown of production costs into direct costs & indirect costs (overheads) Breakdown of marketing and support costs into launch costs, promotion costs, direct sales costs, and service costs Inclusion of tax effects, including the depreciation tax shield and investment tax credits Inclusion of such miscellaneous inflows and outflows as working capital requirement, annibalization (impact of the new product on existing product sales), salvage costs, and opportunity cos
EXTERNAL FACTORS
Product Price Sales Volume Competitive Environment
To illustrate NPV concepts, let: C = monetary amount invested r = interest rate (e.g. rate of return, discount factor, hurdle rate) t = number of time periods Then: PV = Present Value = C/(1 + r)t
NOTE: r is the opportunity cost of capital. It is called this because it is the return forgone by investing in the project rather than other investments that is, the reward that investors demand for accepting delayed payment. A project with positive NPV must be earning more than the opportunity cost of capital.
An illustration follows.
CONCLUSIONS???
LAST: A second type of risk is market risk which is not project-specific. Market risk
stems from the fact that there are economy-wide perils that threaten all businesses and projects market risk is USUALLY accounted for by inflating the discount rate.
Sensitivity analysis uses the financial model to answer what if questions by calculatin the change in NPV corresponding to a change in the factors included in the model. Both internal and external factors influence project value.
nfluence, including development program expense, development speed, production co and product performance.
External Factors are those that the team cannot arbitrarily change, including the
competitive environment (e.g., market response, actions of competitors), sales volume and product price.
Price There may be disagreement over whether price is an internal or external factor.
Regardless, there is little disagreement that price is strongly influenced by the prices o competitive products and that it is linked to sales volume. While external factors are not directly controlled by product development teams, they are often influenced by the internal factors.
Development Time
Product Cost
Product Performance
Development Cost
Often interactions can be thought of as trade-offs, for example, decreasing development time may lead to lower product performance. Increased product performance may require additional product cost. Some interactions are, however, more complex in nature. For example decreasing product development time may require an increase in development spending, yet extending development time may also lead to an increase in cost if the extension is caused by delay in a critical task, rather than by a planned extension of the schedule.
Ceteris paribus
(other things being equal) assumption.
Macro Environment
Market
Firm Project
Customers Customers expectations, incomes, or tastes may change. Changes may be driven
by new conditions in markets for complementary or substitute products or may be independent.
Suppliers Suppliers of inputs to the new product are subject to their own markets competitive
pressures. These pressures may, indirectly throughout the value chain, impact the new product. Actions & reactions of these groups may impact expected price and volume, but can also have second-order effects. e.g., consider a new competitor that has rapid product development cycles and that seems to value market share rather than short-term profitability. The entrance of such a new competitor would change our expected price and volume and we may attempt to speed our own development efforts in response so that the competitors actions may impact both our sales volume forecasts and our planned development schedule.
Macro factors can have important impacts on development project value. However, their effects are difficult to model quantitatively because of inherent complexity and uncertainty.
1. Can you think of successful products that would never have been developed if their creators had relied exclusively on a quantitative financial model to justify their efforts? Do these products share any characteristics? 2. One model of the impact of a delay in product introduction is that sales are simply shifted later in time. Another model is that some of the sales are pushed beyond the window of opportunity and are lost forever. Can you suggest other models for the implications of an extension of product development time? Is such an extension ever beneficial? 3. How would you use the quantitative analysis methodology to capture the economic performance of an entire line of products to be developed and introduced over several years?
Generally customer needs and product specifications are useful for guiding the concept phase of product development. HOWEVER, during later activities teams often have difficulty linking needs and specifications to the specific design issue they face. In response, many teams practice Design for X (DFX) where X may represent any number of criteria such as reliability, robustness, serviceability, environmental impact, or manufacturability. Most common among these is design for manufacturability or DFM - of primary importance because it directly addresses manufacturing costs. Manufacturing cost is a key determinant of the economic success of a product since such success depends on the profit margin earned on each sale of the product and on how many units of the product the firm can sell. Profit margin is the difference between the manufacturers selling price and the cost of making the product. Economically successful design is thus about ensuring high product quality while minimizing manufacturing costs and DFM is one method of achieving this.
Proposed Costs
Estimate the Manufacturing Costs
Good Enough?
No
Yes
Acceptable Design
Inform Loop
The SIPOC model includes the manufacturing system (IPO) with inputs that include raw materials, purchased components, employees efforts, energy and equipment. Similarly, outputs include finished goods and waste. Manufacturing cost is the sum of all the expenditures for the inputs of the system and for disposal of the wastes produced by the system. The metric of costs for a product firms generally use is unit manufacturing cost; computed by dividing the total manufacturing costs for some period (usually a quarter or a year) by the number of units of the product manufactured during that period. In practice this concept is complicated by several issues: What are the boundaries of the manufacturing system? Should the field service operations be included? What about product development activities? How do we charge the product for the use of expensive general-purpose equipment that lasts for several years? How are costs allocated among more than one product line in large, multi-product manufacturing systems?
Components
Assembly
Overhead
Standard
Custom
Labor
Support
Indirect Allocation
Raw Material
Processing
Tooling
Component Costs. The components (e.g., parts) of a product may include standard parts purchased from suppliers. Other components would be custom parts, made according to the manufacturers design from raw materials. Assembly Costs. Discrete goods are generally assembled from parts. The process of assembling almost always incurs labor costs and may also incur costs for equipment and tooling. Overhead Costs. Overhead is the category used to encompass all of the other costs. We find it useful to distinguish between two types of overhead: support costs and other indirect allocations. Support costs are the costs associated with materials handling, quality assurance, purchasing, shipping, receiving, facilities, and equipment / tooling maintenance (among others). These are the support systems required to manufacture the product, and these costs are often shared by more than one product line and are lumped together in the category of overhead. Indirect allocations are the costs of manufacturing that cannot be linked to a particular project but which must be paid for to be in business (e.g., the salary of the security guard and the cost of maintenance to the building and grounds are indirect costs because these activities are shared among several different products and are difficult to allocate directly to a specific product.) Because indirect costs are not specifically linked to the design of the product, they are not relevant to DFM, even though they do contribute to the cost of the product.
Definitions
Cost Behavior: this analysis tells us how the activities of an organization affect its costs. Cost Drivers: the activities that affect costs. Cost drivers can be volume related or non-volume related. Examples for the case of a warehouse that receives and stores material and supplies are:
Total monetary value of inventory; The number of different orders received; The number of different items handled; The fragility of the items handled.
Definitions
Variable Cost: is a cost that varies in direct proportion to changes in the cost driver. Typically the number of units of the product is the cost driver. A 20% increase in the number of units produced will cause a 20% increase in the cost of raw material used. This relationship holds for some relevant range. There may be quantity discounts available.
Definitions
Fixed Cost: is a cost that is not affected by changes in the cost driver within some relevant range. For example, the rent paid for storage space (a warehouse) is not affected by the number of units of product stored, within the capacity of the warehouse. Beyond this range, it may be necessary to rent a larger warehouse, the cost for which would be fixed over some new and, probably, higher range. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis: is the study of the effects of output volume on sales, costs, and net profit.
o USP = unit sale price o UVC = unit variable cost o N = Number of units.
Many support resources are not consumed in proportion to their production volumes.
Assigning Costs to Products - example Consider the case of two Tumbling Dice Electronics, Inc. plants - Domino and Geronimo both producing CD Players. The Domino Plant makes 100,000 CD Players per year of a single model with a stable design. The Geronimo Plant makes 100,000 units of a dozen different designs in volumes ranging from 1000 to 30,000 and the designs of some of the lower volume models are subject to frequent changes. It is clear that Geronimo will have much higher levels of indirect costs due to larger costs for scheduling, setups, inspections, materials management, design, and engineering changes. The traditional system would provide accurate costs for Domino, but for Geronimo, the high support activity costs would be allocated incorrectly by unit-based measures to high volume models.
Traditional product costing assumes that products cause indirect costs by consuming the driver(s). Indirect costs can, therefore, be allocated through these unit-based measures. That is, indirect costs are assumed to vary directly with volume of output. We have seen that this approach can cause cost distortions when products are in different stages of their life cycle, are not of the same complexity, or are produced in different volumes.
ABC takes a different approach in assuming that products incur costs by the ACTIVITIES they require for design, engineering, manufacture, sale, delivery and service. These activities, in turn, cause costs by consuming support resources such as the production planning and control dept., setup dept., engineering dept., shipping dept., and so on. ABC attempts to trace as many of the indirect costs as possible directly to products, as is done with direct material and direct labor. To implement an ABC system, a company must identify the major activities undertaken by support departments and select a cost driver for each. Some examples are: (a) Engineering and hours of engineering services, (b) inspection and hours of testing, (c ) Shipping and number of orders and (d) Production Setup and number of setups.
ADVANTAGES:
Improved decisions through more accurate cost data. This becomes especially important when manufacturing overhead costs account for a large percentage of production costs e.g. as in the electronics and machinery industries where overhead accounts for 70%-75% of value added. Improved insights into activities that lead to overheads. By linking activities to financial costs, ABC provides cost information to complement non-financial indicators of performance. It is therefore compatible with TQM efforts. It recognizes the non-manufacturing costs of products through the activities that are linked to products. It allows cost analysis at the design stage. Designers can keep in mind cost drivers (e.g. number of components) while designing the product.
Any scheme for allocation of indirect costs can be considered arbitrary because another consultant or expert could design an alternate scheme. The use of single cost drivers is nave. For example, shipping and handling costs are likely to depend on the number of orders shipped, the weight, volume and special packaging needs of products. Using only one of these drivers will not reflect costs accurately. Many fixed costs are treated as variable costs. This could lead a company to mistakenly use the per unit cost obtained from an activity-based costing system as a marginal cost. The cost of implementing an ABC System, with many cost pools and cost drivers, can be high.
Diversity in the product mix in terms of complexity of products, stages of life cycle, volumes, number of batches produced, requirement for engineering and quality related activities, etc. Profitability of products and competitors prices are hard to explain. Common symptoms of this problem are winning bids that you considered high, and losing bids that you considered low. The higher the cost of such measurement errors, the more important it is to get more accurate product costs.
CIM provides a good example of an environment where support activities generate high percentage of the costs: 1. Development of the computer programs that run the machines, direct the material handling system, coordinate the different elements of the system, and provide feedback to supervisors. 2. Scheduling and sequencing of products 3. Design of products and process routes so that production can be assigned to CNC equipment with minimum human intervention; and 4. Increased levels of preventive maintenance. The flexibility of CIM systems e.g. a Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS), allows many different products to be produced simultaneously in small batches and in random order. This makes the prior tasks even more complicated. At the same time, the highly automated and computer controlled nature of the production process means that direct labor costs tend to be a very small component of the total cost. Any overhead cost allocation based on direct labor will provide distorted product costs.
COST DRIVER
Number of Components Hrs. of Engineering Services Number of Setups Number of Components Hours of Testing Number of Orders
RATE
$0.15 / component $60.00 / hour $100.00 / setup $0.05 / component $40.00 / hour $2.00 / order
36 0.10
0.05 2