Climate Change : Impacts on Indian Agriculture

Biswajit Biswal Dept. of Soil Sc. & Agril. Chemistry Institute of Agricultural Sciences Banaras Hindu University Varanasi

There was a country.People were happily living by fishing & other activities depending upon the surrounding sea. Suddenly the sea begins to rise..Within a century..The whole island country sinks..Along with it sinks the 300000 lives..their Culture..& Heritage Some how some ambitious people had seen the future in advance.They had shelters in other countrieThey survived..along with them their legend

 FriendsThis was not a story..The Country in Question is Maldives & the visionary is newly elected President Nasheed.. According to IPCC..There are 20 countries aroundworld.in the verge of extinction..Due to rise in sea level resulting from GLOBAL WARMING.. The last days of paradise are on. What We aspire to give our great grand children is nothing but a world worth not living.

Its now Maldives.Days are not far..When India will be witnessing Such things.

Is this reality..???

Lets Ponder over it..

INDIA AND AGRICULTURE

CONTEXT Population : 1 billion + % Share of Agri. in GDP : 34 % (1994), 42 % (1980) Area under Agriculture : 50 % (160 mha) Population dependent on Agriculture: 70% Average farm size: : 1 to5 ha Landless dependent on others Total. Area Irrigated Prod Earnings % of GDP (mha) (mha) (mt). (Rs.) Rice 42 20 73 365 22 Wheat 24 21 57 208 12.6

Current Issues in Agriculture

Overproduction in short-term, yet food insecurity for a large population

Stagnation/decline in yields
Diversification Natural resource management- SOM decline, input use efficiencies, narrow genetic base

Quality and quantity of water resources

Profitability: Increasing cost and deceleration in TFP growth

Emerging Scenario: Drivers of Agricultural Transformation

Increasing population leading to higher (and quality) demand of food Increasing urbanization Increasing rural migration -tenant farming, contract and cooperative farming Increasing inter- and intra-sectoral competition for resources: land, water, energy, credit Increasing globalization: removal of trade barriers, information and communication New technologies: Biotechnology, space and information technology Increasing privatization of agricultural extension

Global climate change

Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) increase, caused by fossil fuel use and land use changes, main reasons. Temperatures increase by 1.8-6.4 C by 2100 AD. Greater increase in rabi Precipitation likely to increase in kharif Snow cover is projected to contract More frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitations Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.

Contribution of different sectors in world to climate change. (Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions)

What is the contribution of different sectors in India to climate change? (Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in India)
Energy 61% Land use changes 1%

Agriculture 28% Wastes 2% Industrial processes 8%

What sectors of agriculture in India contribute to climate change?

Manure m anagem ent 5% Rice cultivation 23%

Crop residues 1%

Em ission from soils 12% Enteric ferm entation 59%

Estimates of Future Levels of CO2

Year
2000 2010-2015 2050/2060 2100

CO2, ppm
369 388-398 463-623 478-1099

Most of the greenhouse gas emissions are from the industrialized countries
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Region Japan, Australia and New zealand Europe Middle East Latin America East Asia Africa South Asia USA and Canada

tons of CO2 eq/capita

Climate Change Scenarios for India

Year Season Increase in o Temperature, C
Lowest 2020s Rabi Kharif 2050s Rabi Kharif 2080s Rabi Kharif 1.08 0.87 2.54 1.81 4.14 2.91 Highest 1.54 1.12 3.18 2.37 6.31 4.62

Change in Rainfall, %
Lowest -1.95 1.81 -9.22 7.18 -24.83 10.10 Highest 4.36 5.10 3.82 10.52 -4.50 15.18

Other observations of change in global climate

Globally, hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent. Frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas. Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003.

Other changes in global climate in future

Tropical cyclones to become more

intense, with heavier precipitation. Snow cover is projected to contract. Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will become more frequent. The projected sea level rise to be 0.18 0.59 meters.

Impacts on Indian Agriculture Literature

Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) showed that an increase of 2oC in

temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha. Rao and Sinha (1994) showed that wheat yields could decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO2 fertilization effects; and would range between +4 to -34% after considering CO2 fertilization effects. Aggarwal and Sinha (1993) using WTGROWS model showed that a 2oC temperature rise would decrease wheat yields in most places. Lat et al. (1996) concluded that carbon fertilization effects would not be able to offset the negative impacts of high temperature on rice yields. Saseendran et al. (2000) showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%. Aggarwal et al. (2002) using WTGROWS and recent climate change scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops. All these studies focused only on agronomic impacts of climate change.

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India

80 75 70

Production , Mtons

65 60 55 50 45 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 2060 2070

Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-40% by 2100. Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. Loss only 1-2 million tons if farmers could plant in time. Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability

Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N. America, and negative impacts on us Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.

Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects

Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; and result in higher emissions Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030. Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production

Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Rice Yields in North India
Year 5
Change in grain yield, %

0 2010 2020 2030 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 Minimum Maximum 2040 2050 2060 2070

Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Wheat Yields in North India
Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 0
Change in grain yield, %

-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Minimum Maximum

Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Rainfed Wheat Yields in Central India
2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 2060 2070

Change in grain yield, %

0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 -30.0 -35.0

Minimum Maximum

Climate Variability and Climate ChangeAnother Driver in Agriculture

Increase in CO2 Increase in temperature Change in precipitation Sea level rise Variability and extreme events such as floods and drought

Projected beneficial impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard New flooded areas may become available for fisheries in coastal regions Other potential benefits, if any, need to be characterized

Impacts on Agriculture
May alter spatial and temporal demands and supply by impacting:
Food production Stability and sustainability Employment and Autonomy Profitability Trade & economy Global financial Crisis

Adaptation and mitigation framework: Need to consider emerging scenario

Greater demand for (quality) food; yields need to increase by 30-50% by 2030 Increasing urbanization and globalization Increasing competition from other sectors for land, energy, water and capital Climate change a continuous process; greater focus on short-term actions on adaptation and mitigation

Key adaptation strategies

1. Assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks 2. Intensifying food production systems 3. Improving land and water management 4. Enabling policies 5. Strengthening adaptation research

Information Needs- Scenarios

Changes in CO2 with time Spatial and temporal changes in temperature and rainfall Impact on groundwater and surface water availability, floods and droughts, sea level rise

Impact assessment- Information Needs

Where, how and at what cost food (crops, livestock products and fish) can be produced to meet the increasing demand and/or what alternative technologies would be needed to meet the desired production targets? Which region and the social group would be more affected as a consequence of global environmental change?

Impact assessment- Information Needs

Which pests will start migrating to currently uninfected areas? How does climate change affect the quality of cereals, spices, medicinal plants, tea and coffee? How inter-state and international trade of different commodities is likely to be affected by global warming considering differential impacts on competing states and countries?

Adaptations to Climate Change

New varieties: drought/heat resistant New farm management practices Change in land use Watershed management Agri-insurance

India Adapting to Global Warming by Changed Management of Wheat in North

Year 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Change in grain yield, %

0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35

Minimum New management Maximum

Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on Environment

Agro-forestry systems Resource conservation technologies Enriching soil organic matter Biofuels

Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on Environment : Information Needs

Can alternate land use systems such as plantation crops and agroforestry increase carbon sequestration and yet meet food demand? How much area can be taken out from agriculture for forestry; where and what policy measures would be needed? How much carbon is conserved by limited tillage options? For how long and in which regions? What policies and technologies would encourage the farmers to enrich organic matter in the soil and thus improve soil health?

Conclusions
Climate change is a reality Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses due to heat, erratic weather, and decreased irrigation availability Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts These need research, funding, and policy support Costs of adaptation and mitigation are unknown but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher Start with no-regrets adaptation options

Climate changeIs it the Beginning of the end..??

The earth is heating..So is the environment..

Now..Its Upto Us..What We can Do..??

Come Forward.. Join hands.. Save Agriculture..to sustain ourselves..

Thank You