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High GDP growth and high per capita growth Substantial poverty reduction Falling proportion of informal employment However, rising inequality
10%
1978-2010
8.9%
decrease: 60% to 9% decrease: 85% to 25% decrease: 64% to 59% increase: 0.41 to 0.47
1978-2010
1990-2008 1990-2008 1995-2008 1993-2004
innovation and industrial upgrading Reduce structural imbalances by deepening factor market reform, urbanization and services sector Ensure a solid foundation for growth based on:
macroeconomic and financial stability; making growth inclusive; managing resource constraints/environment; and, living in harmony with the outside world
Reforming hukou
Wages, education, health care, pensions Supporting growth, reducing social tension
3. Reducing inequality
1. Urbanization-employmentsocial benefits
Hukou is a large, unfinished reform Migrants hold rural hukou but work in cities
Thus denied rights to urban health, housing, schooling,
pensions, etc.
more settled urban population the attraction of more migrants rising domestic consumption higher level of economic development
40
Percent
30
20
10
0
Maternity insurance Unemployment insurance Work injury insurance Basic health care Basic pension
Urban workers
Migrant workers
2. Rebalancing
Economy dependent on external demand and
investment component of domestic demand Need for rebalancing to domestic consumption High wages would help and they are rising Better social programs to reduce the precautionary motive to save (health, education, unemployment insurance, pension)
10
8 Percent 6 4 2 0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Real wage
Education
Higher value production requires better
trained and educated workers More productive workers can be paid higher wages which increases domestic consumption and reduce inequality Urban education systems need to accommodate granting of more urban hukou
Education
Primary education is universal Secondary tertiary education have grown rapidly
Second.: from 39% to 78% of age cohort, 1990-2009 Tertiary: from 3% to 25% of the age cohort, 1990-2009
1997-2009
an astonishing increase of 18 m students in 12 years! but enrolment levels below those of other middle-
100 20
15
60
10 40
5 20
0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Enrollment in higher education (in million) Funding per student (as % of 1999 level)
80 Enrollment in million
Tertiary 98 83 71 58 57 55 55 36 34 27 23
Source: World Bank, WDI; Note: number students enrolled, regardless of age, as % of persons in the age bracket for that type of education, thus figures may be greater than 100%
Education attainment
Despite rapid increase in enrolment,
educational attainment of current workforce in tertiary education remains weak (because of the lag) Attainment similar to other middle-income countries in terms of secondary education
64% in 2005
education
6% in 2005
Health care
Health care expenditure per capita below
Argentina
faster than other countries Health expenditure as % of GDP remains low and not rising as rapidly because GDP growing fast
NOTE: DATA FOR KOREA IS UP TO 2008 ONLY. SOURCE: WORLD BANK, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ONLINE (ACCESSED 5 SEPTEMBER 2011).
12
10 8 6 4 2 0
1995
2000
2005
2009
SOURCE: WORLD BANK, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ONLINE (ACCESSED 5 SEPTEMBER 2011).
3. Threat of inequality
Inequality may affect the growth process
through:
Limiting the contribution of lower classes to
growth by lower human capital (health and education) Generating social instability (public dissent) Limiting the contribution of lower classes to generating domestic consumption demand
Part of the rebalancing issue
Thank you