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Outline
Foreign investments Motives for foreign investments Risk and Diversification Hedging and Speculation in the spot market Covered and uncovered interest parity Basics about foreign currency derivatives Pricing Strategies using derivatives Other instruments
Portfolio Investments
The U.S. government defines as portfolio investment stock purchases that involve less than 10 per cent of the voting stock of a corporation. Portfolio or financial investments take place primarily through financial institutions such as banks and investment funds. Portfolio Investments: purely financial assets, such as stocks and bonds, denominated in a national currency.
Diversification
Portfolio theory thus tells us that by investing in securities with yields that are inversely related over time, a given yield can be obtained at a smaller risk or a higher yield can be obtained for the same level of risk for the portfolio as a whole.
Diversification
Since yields on foreign securities (depending primarily on the different economic conditions abroad) are more likely to be inversely related to yields on domestic securities, a portfolio including both domestic and foreign securities can have a higher average yield and/or lower risk than a portfolio containing only domestic securities. To achieve such a balanced portfolio, a two-way capital flow may be required.
An Example of Diversification
If stock A (with the same average yield but lower risk than stock B) is available in one country, while stock B (with yields inversely related to the yields on stock A) is available in another country, investors in the first nation must also purchase stock B (i.e. invest in the second nation). Investors in the second nation must also purchase stock A (i.e. invest in the first nation to achieve a balanced portfolio. Risk diversification can thus explain two-way international portfolio investments.
Direct Investments
Real investments in factories, capital goods, land and inventories where both capital and management are involved and the investor retains control over use of the invested capital. Usually takes the form of a firm starting a subsidiary of taking control of another firm (for example, by purchasing a majority of the stock). Any purchase of 10 percent or more of the stock of a firm is considered direct investments.
Direct Investments
Usually undertaken by multinational corporations engaged in manufacturing, resource extraction, or services.
Diversify risks. Firms with a stronger international orientation, either through exports and/or through foreign production sales facilities, are more profitable and have a much smaller variability in profits that pure domestic firms. Source of cheaper raw materials.
Hedging
Refers to the avoidance of foreign exchange risk, or the covering of an open position. In a world of foreign exchange uncertainty, the ability of traders and investors to hedge greatly facilitates the international flow of trade and investments. Can take place in the spot, forward, futures and options markets.
Speculation
Is the opposite of hedging. The speculator accepts and even seeks out a foreign exchange risk, or an open position in the hope of making a profit. If the speculator correctly anticipates future changes in spot rates, he/she makes a profit; otherwise he/she incurs a loss. Can take place in the spot, forward, futures and options markets.
Analysis
Suppose the cars end up costing more. The profit from the futures transaction is offsets the higher costs on the cars.
Remember
The hedger will be able to reduce some of the losses in the spot market as long as the pound price and futures rates move in the same direction. Forgo possible gains in spot markets.
Analysis
The pounds end up worth $13,570,000$12,375,000 = $1,195,000 less, but are delivered on the forward contract for $13,570,000, thus completely eliminating the risk. Had the transaction not been done, the firm would have converted the pounds at the spot rate of $1.2375.
Analysis
If the spot rate at expiration exceeds $0.975, the put will expire worthless and the strategy will lose the premium, $590, which is the maximum loss. The breakeven spot price is $.975 - $.0059 = $.9691. The maximum gain is if the euro falls to value zero. Then the put holder can sell the currency at $.0975 for a profit of 100,000($.975-$.0059) = $96,910.
Short Forward Option Hedge: Hedge Buy Put Gain on pound reduced by hedge. Small profit or loss Put expires, premium loss
Pound decreases
Loss on pound
Unsuccessful: Pound increases Pound decreases No effect No effect Potentially large Put expires, loss on pound premium loss Potentially large Potentially large gain on pound. gain on pound by exercise put.
Currency Swaps
Transaction between two parties in which each promises to make a series of payments to the other at specific future dates, with each set of payments made in different currencies. The payments normally consist of a series of interest payments, often, but not always, followed by a final principal payment.
Currency Swaps
Payments can use a floating or fixed rate. Commonly used by firms that operate in one currency but need to borrow in another currency. A company can usually borrow cheaper in its own currency. Two parties involved are end user (firm) and dealer (large bank or investment firm).
Analysis
Swap payments will be: .061(180/360)$9,804,000 = $299,022 from bank to firm .0435(180360)10M Euros = 217,500 Euros from firm to bank. Equivalent to a series of forward contracts. Equivalent to issuing bond in one currency and using the proceeds to buy a bond in another currency.
a) Up front Firm Bondholders b) Semiannually for two years Firm Bondholders c) At termination date Firm Bondholders Bank Bank Bank
Questions?
References
International Economics by Dominick Salvatore An Introduction to Derivatives and Risk Management by Don Chance http://www.x-rates.com/cgi-bin/hlookup.cgi