CHAPTER 2

2.5 Counting Rules Useful in

Probability
 Let A = “the event of getting an even number”

3 Number of outcomes favorable to A

P ( A) = =
6 Total number of equally likely outcomes

 A quality inspector examines two manufactured items selected

from a production line. Item 1 can be defective or nondefective, as
can item 2.
 How many possible outcomes exists? Construct a 2x2 table for this
case.

 Theorem. If the first task of an experiment can result in n1 possible

outcomes and, for each such outcome, the second task can result in
n2 possible outcomes, then there are n1 n2 possible outcomes for the
two tasks together.
 2.5 Counting Rules Useful in
Probability
 1. A firm is deciding where to build two new plants, one in the east
and one in the west. Four eastern cities and two western cities are
possibilities. Construct a tree diagram for this problem. If all choices
are equally likely, find the probability that the 2nd western city is
selected.
 Answer= ½

 2. Five motors (numbered 1 through 5) are available for use, and

motor 2 is defective. Motor 1 and 2 come from supplier I, and motors
3,4 and 5 come from supplier II. Suppose two motors are randomly
selected for use on a particular day. Let A denote the event that the
defective motor is selected and B the event that at least one motor
comes from supplier I. Find P(A) and P(B).
 Answer P(A)=0.4 and P(B)=0.7
 2.5 Counting Rules Useful in
Probability
First Motor selected Second Motor selected


 2
 3
 1 4
 5


 1
 3
 2 4
 5


 1
 2
 3 4
 5

 1
 2
 4 3
 5


 1
 5 2
 3
 4
 2.5 Counting Rules Useful in
Probability
 From three pilots (A,B,C) a crew of two is to be selected to
form a pilot-copilot team. Show how many possibilities exist?

 Obs. This is an example of a permutation.

 Theorem. The number of ordered arrangements, or permutations, of r

objects selected from n distinct objects (r ≤ n) is given by

 n!
P = n(n − 1)...(n − r + 1) =
r
n

(n − r )!
 2.5 Counting Rules Useful in

Probability
From among 10 employees, three are to be selected for travel to
three out-of-town plants, A,B,C, with one employee traveling to
each plant. Since the plants are in different cities, the order of
assisting the employees to the plants is an important consideration.
The first person selected might, for instance, go to plant A, the
second to plant B. In how many ways can the assignments be
made?

 Answer= 720

 An assembly operation in a manufacturing plant involves four steps,

which can be performed in any order. If the manufacturer wishes to
experimentally compare the assembly times for each possible
ordering of the steps, how many orderings will the experiment
involve?

 Answer =24
 2.5 Counting Rules Useful in
Probability
 A manager is asked to rank four divisions of a company with respect
to their ability to adapt new technology. If the divisions are labeled
A,B,C and D what is the probability that B gets ranked highest?
What is the probability that B ranks first and D ranks second?

 Answer:
 ¼
 1/12
 2.5 Counting Rules Useful in
Probability
 Theorem. The number of distinct unordered subsets, or combinations, of
size r that can be selected from n distinct objects (r ≤ n) is given by

 n n!
  =
 r  r!(n − r )!
 Since any particular set of r objects can be ordered among themselves in Prr
= r! ways, it follows that

 n
 r!= Prn
r 
or
 n 1 n n!
  = Pr =
 r  r! r!(n − r )!
 2.5 Counting Rules Useful in Probability

 Suppose that three employees are to be selected from ten to visit a

new plant. In how many ways can the selection be made?

 Answer =120

 If two of the above employees are female and eight are male, what
is the probability that exactly one female gets selected among the
three?

 Answer = 7/15
 2.5 Counting Rules Useful in Probability

 Five applicants for a job are ranked according to ability, with

applicant number 1 being the best, number 2 the second best and
so on. These rankings are unknown to an employer, who simply
hires two applicants at random. What is the probability that this
employer hires exactly one of the two best applicants?

 Answer = 0.6
Work in Class

 For a certain style of new automobile, the colors blue, white,

black and green are in equal demand. Three successive orders
are placed for automobiles of this style. Find the probability
that:

 A) one blue, one white and one green are ordered

 B) two blues are ordered
 C) at least one black is ordered
 D) exactly two of the orders are of the same color
Solution
 A) P(B, W,G) = (number of ways of ordering a B,W,G) / (total number
of ways a sample of 3 can be chosen)
 = P33 / (4 * 4 *4) = 6/64=0.09375

 B) P(BB) = P( order 2B out of 3 cars) * P( number of ways of getting

the third car) / P(total number of ways a sample of 3 cars can be
chosen)
 = 3 *3 / 64 = 0.140625

 C) P( at least one is black) = P(1 black)+ P( 2black)+ P( 3 black)

 = 1 – P( no black)
 = 1 – (get any of the 3 colors)/(get a sample of 3)
 = 1- 3*3*3/4*4*4 = 37/64 = =0.5718125

 D) P( exactly 2 are the same color) = 4 * 3*3/64=0.5625

 2.5 Counting Rules Useful in
Probability
 Theorem. The number of ways of partitioning n distinct objects into
k groups containing n1, n2 … nk objects respectively, is

n!
n1! n2 !...nk !
where
k

∑n =
i=
1
n i
 2.5 Counting Rules Useful in
Probability
 Suppose that ten employees are to be divided among three jobs, with
three employees going to job I, four going to job II and three going to
job III. In how many ways can the job assignment be made?

 Answer = 10! / 3!*4!*3! = 4,200

 In the above problem, suppose the only three employees of a certain

ethnic group all get assigned to job I. What is the probability of this
happening under a random assignment of employees to jobs?

 Answer = (how many ways we can assign the other 7 employees)/(how

many ways to assign 10 employees to 3 jobs) = (7!/ (4!*3!)) / 4,200 =
 35/4,200= 1/120
 HOMEWORK

 2.30
 2.32
 2.6 Conditional Probability and
Independence
 Percentage of net new workers in the labor force

 Women Men
 ************************************************
 White 42% 15% 57%
 Nonwhite 14% 7% 21%
 Immigrant 9% 13% 22%

 How do the relative frequencies for the three racial/immigrant

categories compares between women and men?
 2.6 Conditional Probability and
Independence
 Definition: If A and B are any two events, then the conditional
probability of A given B, denoted P(A|B), is

P ( AB )
P ( A | B) =
P ( B)

 provided that P(B) >0.

 Example: From five motors, of which one is defective, two motors are
to be selected at random for use on a particular day. Find the
probability that the second motor selected is nondefective, given that
the first was nondefectice.
 Answer = (12/20) / (16/20) = ¾=0.75
 2.6 Conditional Probability and
Independence
 Probabilities are usually very sensitive to the conditioning information.
Sometimes, however, a probability does not change when a
conditioning information is supplied.

 If the extra information derived from knowing that an event B has

occurred does not change the probability of A – if P(A|B)=P(A) – then
the events A and B are said to be independent.

 Using the previous definition we obtain P(AB)=P(A)P(B).

 Definition: Two events are said to be independent if P(A|B)=P(A) or

P(B|A)=P(B). This is equivalent to stating that P(AB)=P(A)P(B).
 2.6 Conditional Probability and
Independence
 Suppose a foreman must select one worker for a special job from a
pool of four available workers, numbered 1,2,3 and 4. He selects the
worker by mixing the four names and randomly selecting one. Let A
denote the event that worker 1 or 2 is selected, B the event that worker
1 or 3 is selected and C the event that worker 1 is selected. Are A and
B independent? Are A and C independent?

 Answer: Calculate the probabilities P(A), P(B), P(C) and P(AB), P(AC)
respectively.
 2.7 Rules of probability

 Definition. The complement Ā of an event A is the set of all outcomes

in a sample space S that are not in A. Thus Ā and A are mutually
exclusive and their union is S.
 Therefore, Ā U A = S.

 P(Ā U A ) = P(Ā) + P(A) =P(S)=1

 P(Ā) = 1 – P(A)

 A quality-control inspector has ten assembly lines from which to

choose products for testing. Each morning of a five-day week, she
randomly selects one of the lines to work on for the day. Find the
probability that a line is chosen more than once a week.

 Answer: P (line is chosen more than once) = 0.7

 2.7 Additive and Multiplicative
Rule
 Theorem. If A and B are any two events, then

 P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB).

 If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B).

 What is P(A U B U C) =?

 Theorem. If A and B are any two events, then

 P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B|A) = P(B)P(A|B).

 If A and B are independent, then P(AB) = P(A) P(B).

 2.7 Additive and Multiplicative
Rule
 Records indicate that for the parts coming out of a hydraulic
repair shop at an airplane rework facility, 20% will have a shaft
defect, 10% will have a bushing defect and 75% will be defect-
free. For an item chosen at random from this output, find the
probability of the following:

 A: The item has at least one type of defect.

 B: The item has only a shaft defect.
 C: The item has only a bushing defect.
 2.7 Additive and Multiplicative
Rule
 Three different orders are to be mailed to three suppliers.
However, an absent – minded secretary gets the order mixed
up and just sends them randomly to suppliers. If a match refers
to the fact that a supplier gets the correct order, find the
probability of

 A: no matches.
 B: exactly one match.
 2.7 Bayes’ Rule

 Let B1 , B2 … Bk are partitions of a sample space S and the

following conditions exists:
 Bi Bj = Ø for any pair I and j
 B1 U B2 U… U Bk = S.

 Bayes’ Rule.
P (B j )P ( A | B j )
P ( B j | A) = k

∑ P (B ) P ( A | B )
i =1
i i
 2.7 Bayes’ Rule

 A company buys tires from two suppliers, 1 and 2. Supplier 1

has a record of delivering tires containing 10% defectives,
whereas supplier 2 has a defective rate of only 5%. Suppose
40% of the current supply came from supplier 1. If a tire is
taken from this supply and observed to be defective, find the
probability that it came from supplier 1.
Law of Total Probability
 Allows one to compute the probability of an event E by conditioning on cases,
according to a partition of the sample space.

 One way to partition S is to break into sets F and Fc, for any event F. Therefore the
simplest form of the law of total probability:

 P(E)=P(E∩F) + P(E ∩ Fc) = P(E|F) P(F) + P(E | Fc) P(Fc)

 Example. A machine produces parts that are either good (90%) , slightly
defective (2%) , or obviously defective (8%). Produced parts get passed
through an automatic inspection machine, which was able to detect any part
that is obviously defective and discard it.

 We assume that a one-year warranty is given for the parts that are shipped
to customers. Suppose that a good part fails within the first year with
probability 0.01, while a slightly defective part fails within the first year with
probability 0.10. What is the probability that a customer receives a part that
fails within the first year and therefore is entitled to a warranty replacement?
Solution
Let G be the event that randomly chosen shipped part is good
Let SD be the event that randomly chosen shipped part is slightly defective
Let OD be the event that randomly chosen shipped part is obviously defective

P(G)=90/92, P(SD)=2/92

Let E be the event that a randomly selected customer’s part fails in the first
year

P(E|G)=0.01 and P(E|SD)=0.1

P(E) = P(E|G) P(G) + P(E|SD) P(SD) = (0.01) 90/92 + (0.1)* 2/92 = 0.012
 HOMEWORK

 2.42
 2.47