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Adib Motiwala
Disclaimer
Any material here is for education purposes only. I may have a position in some of the securities mentioned as examples. Please do your own research or consult your financial advisor. Do not take it as investment advice. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities or investment advice.
Outline
Introduction What is value investing? Why does value investing work? An approach to Risk Management
About me
Education MBA in Finance @UTD - 2010 MS in Comp Sc. @Texas A&M 2001 Motiwala Capital LLC (www.motiwalacapital.com) Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) in Texas Founded in 2010 Managing clients capital since April 2011. AUM : ~ $800k (as of 10/25/2011) Contact : adib@motiwalacapital.com
Special Situations Merger Arbitrage Closed end fund tender offers Dual Share Class arbitrage Spin offs
Option enhancement via Covered Calls and Cash Covered Puts
Central Concepts
Investing in a stock is part ownership in a business
Mr. Market
Manic-depressive
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Intrinsic Value
The underlying value of the business. Not an absolute number but a range. Various methods Asset based approach Earnings / Cash flow based approach Private market value / Prior transactions Relative valuation It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong
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Circle of Competence
Buy what you know. Do your own research.
Dont feel compelled to invest in an area just because every one is investing there.
Over time increase your circle of competence. Investors get better as they age ( unlike sports or some other professions)
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Margin of Safety
What is Margin of Safety ? A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck or extreme volatility Seth Klarman Why is having a margin of safety important? Valuation is an imprecise art The future is inherently unpredictable Having a margin of safety provides protection against bad luck, bad timing, or error in judgment.
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2 Rules of Investing
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2 Rules of Investing
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10%
11%
20%
25%
33%
50%
50%
100%
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Magic of Compounding
Years of Investment 20 40 60 7% return 4 times 15 times 58 times 12% return 10 times 93 times 898 times 18% return 27 times 750 times 20,555 times
Example : $100,000 investment made today will be $1 million in 20 years if investments compound annually at 12% and $9.3 million if invested for 40 years. A meager rate of 7% turns $100,000 into $1.5 million in 40 years. Keys: Invest for the long term. Stay healthy and Live Longer!!! Start EARLY! Invest in your 20s and 30s regularly. Save money!!! 10$ could turn into $930 in 40 years!!! (@12%)
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Investment Process
Idea generation
Fundamental research
Portfolio construction and position sizing Portfolio maintenance Risk management
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Idea generation
52 week low list Low P/E, P/B, P/FCF, P/S, high dividend yield Screeners (Magic Formula, FinViz) Fund manager 13F filings Magazines/newspapers/ ValueLine Blogs / Investment Clubs (SumZero, VIC) http://motiwalacapital.com/blog/search-strategy/
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Valuation
Price is what you pay, Value is what you get Buffett.
Arrive at normalized earnings for the business operating in normal conditions (normalized margins etc)
Check what Mr. Market is offering the business to you for ? ( Market Cap and Enterprise Value)
P/FCF, P/E, EV/FCF, EV/Sales, EV/EBIT are some of the measures used.
What is the business worth? Other businesses, past valuations, Private market value. Depends on the nature of the business. Inverse DCF
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Management Evaluation
This is more qualitative than quantitative. Past Capital allocation Skills to run the business and grow it Compensation levels. Duration of management Past decision making and results Past mistakes. Past promises. Dividend policy and record. Share buyback. Insider holding level. Insider buyback Cluster selling
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Types of Risk
Business risk Risk that investment does not work from a business perspective Valuation / Investment risk Buying at a high price in relation to value Financial leverage risk Risk of default, bankruptcy, share holder dilution Portfolio risk Market Risk
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Combination of operating and financial leverage can work wonders. It can also be an absolute disaster. We avoid this combination.
We look at LT Debt / Equity, Interest Coverage. The ability to service debt via cash flows.
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Final thoughts
Do your own homework. There are no shortcuts in investing. Ignore the noise. Understand the business. If its too difficult, move to the next company. Financials understand them and know how to value the firm. Evaluate management capital allocation, shareholder friendly decisions Know the thesis on the opposite side. Always invest with a margin of Safety. Consider Risks before Returns. Invest for the longer term. Compounding works very well over many, many years. Patience is the toughest part of Value Investing. Learn from your mistakes and of others. Stick to your style. No style works day in and day out.
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Resources
Books for value investors Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd. Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman You can be a stock market genius by Joel GreenBlatt. Beat the street by Peter Lynch One up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch Common stocks and uncommon profits by Philip Fisher The little book on Value Investing The little book that beats the street. Resources for learning Letters by Buffett and Munger, Berkshire letters. Letters by great hedge fund and mutual fund managers. Value investors club, SumZero, GuruFocus http://motiwalacapital.com/blog/favorite-blogswebsites/
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