Dynamic Modelling for Emission Control Policies in the Delhi Urban Transport System

July 19, 2005

Ph.D. Viva Indian Institute of Technology Delhi

Presentation Overview
Background Literature review and gaps in the literature Research Methodology Model framework Input data requirements Development of tools Model Verification and Validation Sample results Summary of research findings Significant contributions Recommendations for Delhi Limitations of research Contribution

 Air quality Global climate Side effects or externalities affecting human health incidences of accidents congestion increasing travel time global environment via CO2 Passenger traffic in India is likely to grow at more than 8% per year (source : Ramnathan & Parikh, 1999) Vehicular emission alone account for 60 % of total pollution (Source: )

Background

Automobile Emissions
Evaporative Emissions
Running Losses

Refueling Emissions

Exhaust Emissions
Two Processes Combustion (Exhaust System) Evaporation (Fuel Storage and Delivery System)

Pollutants
Carbon dioxide CO2 Methane CH4 Nitrous oxide NOx Carbon monoxide CO Sulfur dioxide SO2 Particulate matter PM Non-methane volatile organic compounds CO2 is by far the most prominent GHG produced by this sector

Measures suggested
Cleaner fuels Improvement in engine efficiency Policies to manage the demand for travel

Complexity in Implementation
Presence of feedback loops within the system Find balance between technological and travel demand measures Behavioural response of transport users to policies

Why Model Emission Control Strategies?

Analyze the environmental impacts of improvements in fuel and engine technology such as Implementation of emission norms and alternative fuels Change in emission factor Vehicle retirement, degradation and composition

Cont.

Why Model Emission Control Strategies?

Analyze the environmental impacts of travel demand and technological measures such as. Use of high-occupancy vehicle lanes Changes in average vehicle travel due to congestion. Provision of non-motorized and pedestrian lanes Use of alternative fuels and efficient vehicles etc. Develop long term emission scenarios Evaluate alternative policy measures to improve air quality.

Literature Classification

Motor Vehicle Emission Modelling

System Dynamics Modelling Approach

Surveys/Studies for Behavioural Response of Transport Users

Travel Demand Models

Mobile source Emission Rate Models

Emission Inventory Models

Travel Demand Management Measures

Transport Infrastructure

Speed Based Models

Modal Based Models

Motor Vehicle Emission Modelling

Trip based consider transport demand by taking in to account a defined transport network structure, and by means of the estimated origin-destination (O/D) matrices.

Activity based travel demand models treat travel as being derived from the demand for personal activities such as work, shopping, personal business, and recreation(Ben-Akiva et al., 1996). Traffic Simulation Models simulate the vehicle travel through a network influenced by real time traffic flows (Lenin & Yu, 2001). Emission Rate models These models provide the estimates of emission rates at which different pollutants are emitted during the vehicle use. These models are integrated with travel demand models for estimating emission inventories.

System Dynamics has found its application in diverse areas ranging from industrial system to health care system, from corporate planning to environmental planning.

Khanna (1986, 1989) has developed an urban transportation model for Delhi region. The model contains four sub sectors: socio-economic, transportation, energy, and environment. Various policies regarding petrol price, fuel consumption, bus fare, improvement in bus service etc. have been experimented with the model. Impact of introducing exclusive bus lanes, light transit rail system, use of catalytic converters have been studied. Sterman (2000) has used System dynamics methodology to understand the sources of policy resistance in a dynamic system (eg. Transportation system). A simple causal model is presented to illustrate the futility of road building activity to reduce traffic congestion. It is due to the presence of feedback loops in such complex and dynamic systems. Ghahramani & Bindra (1999), have used SD approach to predict traffic flow characteristics and travel time on each network links A macrolevel model of goods transportation growth by possible alternative modes has been suggested by Piattelli et al., (2002) as a decision support tool for policy making

Gaps in the literature

Causal nature of various factors within and outside the transportation system, which is responsible for the dynamics within the system is not identified during for emission control policy assessment. Combine travel activity data obtained from travel demand models, emission rate data from emission rate models to obtain the estimates of emission inventories . Therefore are not effectively interrelated in terms of underlying principles, they are linked only mechanically with each other. Behavioural response of transport users to policy measures, such as the phenomenon of induced travel is not included in the modelling framework. Environmental impact of induced traffic, provision of pedestrian lanes, bus lanes etc. on the air quality not assessed in these modelling framework. Impact of regulatory mechanism to manage the travel demand such as, high occupancy lanes, impact of Metro rail expansion, impact of strengthening public transport system etc as a function of time series is not incorporated in the model.

A Systems View of the Problem: Need for System Dynamics Approach

Transport sector closely woven with, economic, social, demographic, geographic, even the political fabric of the region Emissions from the transport sector - result of complex interrelationship among technology, economy, city planning, industrial and commercial activity, settlement pattern and policy makers view regarding regulatory, pricing and taxation mechanism All these factors interact with each other in a complex manner to generate the dynamics of transport demand and emissions arising there of.

Linkages in transportation system

Family size and structure Gender base Age distribution Work status Culture and values SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC Public Transport Use of Private Vehicle Driving pattern Vehicle affordability Fuel requirement Trip length Congestion TRANSPORT Emission of Greenhouse Gases Alternative Fuel Travel cost Income of family Cost of travel Economic activities in the region Industrial growth of the region ECONOMICS

Regions geographic size Population density pattern Distance between destinations e Topography of the region GEOGRAPHICAL SITUATION Housing Pattern

Travel Regulations

Mixed Activity Centers

Developmental activity of the region Provision of the infrastructural facility for transport Funding for technological innovations Restrictions on vehicular Movements POLITICAL

Motor Vehicle Emission Modelling

Emission Rates Vehicle Travel Policy measures Emission Inventory Emission Analysis

Causal Loop Diagram

Showing impact of Induced travel and Road construction activity on Air Pollution
+ Vehicle Number /Travel + Induced Travel + + + Road Construction + Leisure Trips + +

Traffic Volume + +

Air Pollution +

Road Capacity

Vehicular Emissions

=
Pressure to reduceCongestion +

Congestion on Road

Closed loop dynamic interaction in assessment of emission inventory

Policy measures

Emission Rates Emission Inventory

Emission Analysis

Behavioural response of transport users

Travel activity

MODEL INTEGRATION
Policy evaluation module Technological changes in fuel and engine technology. Travel demand management measures Behavioural response of transport users Travel demand Estimates by considering the impact of policy intervention on input variables. Emission module

EMISSION INVENTORY

Pollutants and Greenhouse gas emissions estimation

Estimated in emission module using database on parameters developed by Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI) All Emission inventory = Vehicle number * Emission modes Factor * VKT Emission factor is function of fuel efficiency, traffic flow, speed, fuel characteristic and age of vehicle

EIi = VNm,j AUm,j EFi,m,j Where EIi = Emission inventory of pollutant i summed over all modes m VNm,j =Vehicle number of mode m using fuel j AUm,j = Average vehicle utilization of mode m using fuel j in Km/day EFi,m,j = Emission Factor of pollutant i in gms/Km for vehicle of mode m using fuel j

EIi = VNm,j AUm,j

EFi,m,j

TPTD TPTD

VOm,j VOm,j

EIi = TPTD

VNm,j AUm,j VOm,j TPTD 1 VOm,j

1 VOm,j

EFi,m,j

EIi = TPTD PTDm,j TPTD Modal Share

EFi,m,j Fuel or Engine Technology

Total Activity

Load Factor

Vehicle fleet, fuels and pollutants for policy experimentation

Transport sector Passenger Transport Fuel Emission Factor

2-Wheeler-2 st 2-Wheeler-4 st 3-Wheeler-2 st 3-Wheeler-4 st

Petrol Diesel CNG LPG Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electricity

Bio fuels

CO2 CO HC

Car/Jeep Taxi Bus Metro Rail

Nonmotorised transport

NOx PM SO2

Benzene

Butadine

Zero emission

Literature Survey Formulate Problem

Research Methodology
DEVELOP SCENARIOS With alternative assumptions in growth in vehicle engine technology, vehicle population, alternative fuel etc. till 2025 TEST ALTERNATIVE EMISSION CONTROL POLICIES Vehicle occupancy Emission factor Modal split Bus lane Road construction Strengthen public transport etc.

COLLECT INPUT DATA Vehicle occupancy Average vehicle travel/day Modal split Vehicle number and age Speed range etc.

SELECT TOOL System Dynamics Causal loop Stock and flow diagram Spread sheet DEVELOP MODEL Emission module Policy evaluation module Congestion module Vehicle population module

Modeling Methodology
Should dynamically link different factors affecting transportation system such as Vehicle population Congestion on the roads Travel behaviour Vehicle travel Growth in transport infrastructure (road construction etc.) Regulatory and taxation mechanism etc.

These interactions can be assessed using System Dynamics methodology

System Dynamics Methodology

It can be used to analyze, social-technologicaleconomic and political (S-T-E-P) systems, to show how the system structure and the policies used in decision making govern behaviour of the system. Causal loop and stock and flow diagrams are useful in unraveling the complex interactions and interrelationships between the system variables. Causal loops, sketch these interactions in the form of succession of causes and effects, forming a closed loop feedback structure, where as the stock and flow diagrams depict the dynamic behaviour inherent in the feedback structures as a web of levels, flows, feedback loops and nonlinear couplings.

Integration of Spreadsheet and System dynamics model

Spreadsheet Large amount of data can be inputted and manipulated easily Open ended Non visual

System dynamics Inputting and manipulating large data is cumbersome C losed structure Visual depiction of interrelatedness

Proposed model Integrates spreadsheet and system dynamics model Inputting and manipulating large data is easy C losed structure Visually depicts interrelatedness amongst variables Dynamic data exchange during simulation

Framework of proposed SD model

Policy Implementation Emission Mitigation Policies

Scenario Developme nt

Model Improvement

Model Validation

Flow Diagram

Causal Loop Diagram

Technology

Vehicle Population

Economic

Transportation and Highway

Fuel type

Causal loop Diagram of Transportation System

Car pooling + Toll free High Occupancy Lane + Changes + Need to Manage Travel Demand + D

+ Vehicle Occupancy Vehicle Number/Travel + + Induced Travel + A + + C B Air Pollution + + Health related Problem &Climate Change + Adaptation of New Technology + H Pressure to Reduce Emissions + Search for Environmentally Friendly Technology/Alternative Fuels + Research activities Curbs on Polluting Vehicles + Running Cost Fuel Efficiency of Vehicles Attractiveness of Polluting Vehicles

in modal split

Leisure Trips

Traffic Volume + Trips Per Day Vehicles on Road + Vehicular Emissions

Road Construction

+ E Pressure to Road Capicity reduceCongestion Congestion on Road + Vehicle Speed + Adequacy of G + Public Transport Public Transport + Travel Time + F Fare Public Transport Network + L Size of the Region Within Desired

+ Attractiveness of Driving J

+ Vehicle Use +

Non- Motorised Vehicle Lane

Public Transport Ridership +

Success Rate/ Cost Effectiveness +

Public Transport Revenue +

Vehicle Travel

Objectives of the proposed model

Objectively evaluate the impact of alternative travel demand management strategies on vehicular emission such as strengthening public transport, changing vehicle occupancy etc. Analyze vehicle emissions under different lane configurations, such as provision of pedestrian lane, bus lanes etc, traffic composition, vehicle occupancy. Evaluate the impact on vehicle emissions from variation in travel demand elasticities, which arises due to the phenomenon of induced travel (opposite of suppressed travel due to congestion), by developing a closed loop dynamic interaction between transport variables. Analyze the impact of the growing travel demand on air pollution and the emissions of GHGs. Develop possible future emission scenarios, by considering series of actions such as policies, technological improvements, behavioural changes etc. and identify the key factors having maximum leverage in mitigating emissions from transport sector, then test their efficacy in the real world with the help of the proposed model.

Modules
Vehicle population module Total number of registered vehicles in different category Vehicles registered every year Retirement age Mode conversion Congestion Module Road capacity Vehicle travel and Vehicle number & Vehicle size Emission module Vehicle travel Emission factor gms/km Fuel type Policy Evaluation module Impact of alternative measures is assessed

Model Overview
Congestion module Vehicle size Vehicle travel Vehicle population Induced Travel Vehicle population growth rate Impact of Metro rail Provision of pedestrian lane Modal shift Vehicles on road
Vehicle Population module

Vehicle registered per year Vehicle retirement Non motorised transport Metro rail

th rate Vehicle population growth rate Growth in congestion level

lation growth rate Growth in congestion level Vehicle speed

Emission module Speed related emission factors User defined modal share Passenger travel Impact of metro

Emission factor Passenger travel rate Vehicle Occupancy

Policy Evaluation module User defined vehicle occupancy Supply induced travel demand Passenger travel demand Use of alternative fuels Pollution inventory level

Modal Shift

Vehicle population Congestion Level

Expansion of METRO Rail

Vehicle Occupancy

Vehicle Travel

Travel Demand

Causal relation between vehicle population, road congestion and travel demand measures
Vehicle Retirement
+ +

Provision of Pedestrian and Bus Lanes Vehicle on Roads

+

Vehicle Population
+

Vehicle registration rate

Development and Implementation o f Alternative Transport Mode Implementation of + Travel Demand Measures Search for Alternative Transport Mode
+ + +

Vehicle
+

Road Congestion

Pressure to Reduce Congestion

+

Road Capacity
+

Road Construction

Stock and flow diagram of Vehicle population module

Total number of registered vehicles

Actual Number of Veh regd ANVR

TNRV VAR

VRR

DVR

TWSL NMVSL JSL THWSL TSL BSL MSL

Causal relationship between congestion, road capacity and traffic volume

T ravel tim e budget +

T ravel tim e
+

V eh icle travel/day V eh icle tim e O n road V eh icle n um ber

+ + + +

V eh icle speed S peed

R oadcapacity
+

Road con gestion

+ +

R oad con struction activity Pressure to reduce + con gestion

T raffic volu m e
+

V eh icle em ission

V eh icle registration rate

Stock and flow diagram of Congestion module

DLT

Congestion level
CER SW CRR DNG NGF CL

Vehicle size index

VSI VTI VPNF ANV

Actual number of vehicles Average vehicle travel per day

AVTPD

Network growth rate

NGR SITDF NG

TN

Actual vehicle travel

AVT

Supply induced travel demand factor

SDS

RCI

Stock and flow diagram of Emission & Policy evaluation module

Emission rate Pollution Inventory
PIDM

Speed correction factor

SCF

ER MVNOEB

PRR

Actual number of vehicles

Passenger kilometer travel

PKT

Emission factor Modified vehicle travel Passenger travel demand

PKTD

EF ANVR MVT UDVO VRMPTD VO TRPKTSB RPTS

User defined vehicle occupancy

UDVO IIBO

Vehicles required to meet modified passenger travel demand

RPKTSB

MVT

Total number of registered vehicles

TNRV VO MPKTD

SPKTM

Passenger travel share of different modes

MVNOIB MVNOEB

Modified passenger travel demand

Important parameters
Congestion Index (CI)

Congestion in the proposed model is defined as an index called congestion index. It is a measure of congestion relative to congestion in some base year for which its value is taken as one. CI = Vehicle number Vehicle size index Vehicle travel index Road capacity Index.

Vehicle Size Indices (VSI)

It represents the relative road space requirement of different vehicles. It is defined in terms of passenger car units, which is a measure of space occupied by different vehicles on road.

Vehicle Travel Index (VTI)

Vehicle Travel Index (VTI) is a relative measure of changes in vehicle travel with respect to average vehicle travel. When there is no change in vehicle travel its value is one.

Road Capacity Index (RCI)

It is the ratio of road capacity measured in terms of km length of road in the base year to road capacity in any other year .

Speed Range (SR)

Two speeds have been defined in the model corresponding to minimum and baseline CI for different categories of vehicles. Speed corresponding to CI equal to one is defined as the normal speed and that corresponding to minimum CI is defined as the reference speed. It is assumed that the reference speed is the maximum speed which any vehicle can attain in free flow conditions. Vehicle speed is linked to CI.

Supply Induced Travel (SIT)

Supply induced travel is defined as the change in vehicle travel as a result of change in capacity of transportation system. SIT = AU SITDF AU - Average vehicle utilization per day SITDF - Supply induced travel demand factor SITDF varies as the congestion index varies

Modal Split (MS) Metro Travel Demand Share (MTDS) Modified Vehicle Number (MVN)
It represents the actual numbers of vehicles plying on the roads at any given time, which may be different from the vehicle number obtained from the vehicle registration records.

Vehicle Occupancy (VO)

Stead (1999) has applied correction factor to account for the variation in emission due to change in vehicle occupancy. The correction factor (CF) is calculated as the ratio of present car occupancy and future car occupancy. EIi = VNm,j CF AUm,j EFi,m,j

Passenger Travel Demand (PTD)

It is a function of vehicle occupancy, vehicle number and vehicle travel per day. PTD = Occupancy * Vehicle Number * Vehicle travel per day

Average Vehicle Travel

It is linked to road congestion through SITDF, and its value may change during dynamic simulation

Emission Factor (EF)

To realistically assess the impact of vehicle speed on emissions average emission factor should be linked to the vehicle speed.

2.5 2 SITDF 1.5 1

SITDF= 1 SITDF 1-0.18 (Linear) SITDF 1-0.01 (Linear) SITDF 1-0.18 (Exp) SITDF 1-0.01 (Exp) SITDF 1-0.001 (Exp)

Sensitivity Analysis
Growth dynamics of CL for alternative SITDF

0.5 0 0.1
3.5 3 2.5

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

3.6

CL

CL

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2000

Years
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

SITDF=1 SITDF 1-.01 (Linear) SITDF 1-.01 (Exp)

SITDF 1-.18 (Linear) SITDF 1-.18 (Exp) SITDF 1-.001 (Exp)

Model validation
Tests of Model Structure Model Structure Verification Test Parameter Verification Test Extreme Condition Test High Level of Supply Induced Travel Zero Supply Induced Travel Model Behaviour Test Dimensional Consistency Boundary Adequacy Test (Face value test) Behaviour Sensitivity Test Extreme Condition Test All Vehicles Running on Solar Cell Metro rail meets full passenger travel demand

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000

50,000 50000 40,000 1 30,000 20,000 10,000 3 3 1 2 4 2 4

40000

30000 20000

1 TWTSP 1 TWTSP 2 TWCNG

2 TWCNG BD 3BD 3 4

BCNG 4BCNG

10000

1980

0 0 1,980

1990

24 1,990 10

2000

24 2,000 20

Time Year Time

2010

13 2,010 30

12,020 3 40

2020

TNRV(*,CO2)

TNRV(*,CO2)

Alternative Scenarios for Policy Experimentation

Scenarios

Static (S)

Dynamic (D)

Unmodified existing roads (UR)

Provision of Pedestrian lane (PL)

Provision of Pedestrian and Bus lane (PBL)

Business as Usual scenario (BAU)

User defined modal split (MS)

User defined vehicle occupancy (VO)

Impact of METRO Rail System (ME)

Brief description of scenarios

S.N Scenario o. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6 7. 8. 9. Static Dynamic Business-as-usual Impact of METRO Rail system User Defined Vehicle Occupancy User Defined Modal Split Unmodified Existing Roads Provision of Pedestrian lane Provision of Pedestrian and Bus lane Abbr. S D BAU ME VO MS UR PL PBL Brief description Transportation system considered as an open ended system Transportation system is considered as an closed loop system Historical trend as well as official forecast of vehicle numbers, growth in engine and fuel technology assumed Assesses change in emissions due to shift in modal share because of introduction of METRO Rail User has an option to change vehicle occupancy User can define percentage share of passenger travel requirement met by different modes No provision of either pedestrian or bus lane in future also Provision of pedestrian lane on the existing roads Provision of pedestrian as well as separate bus lane in the future.

Illustrative Results case of Delhi Period from 2000-2025 Modes of transortation :

Impact of Metro on emission of CO2

70000 60000 Tonnes/day 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 S/UR/BAU 2005 2010 D/UR/BAU 2015 S/UR/ME2 2020 D/UR/ME2 Years 2025

CO2

Dynamic interaction yields lower value of emissions. True only with present assumptions.

Impact of change in assumptions

Scenarios Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 S/UR/BAU 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 D/UR/BAU/ 2020 25NG 2025
60000 50000 Tonnes/day 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 Year

2-Wheeler TD VT 54.06 27.5 63.75 27.5 77.63 27.5 89.97 27.5 100.08 27.5 106.3 27.5 61.95 28.96 72.94 30.53 88.53 30.75 102.25 30.68 112.88 30.61 119.16 30.66
CO2

Car/Jeep TD VT 50.09 41 85.09 41 124.7 41 169.48 41 212.13 41 245.13 41 60.77 43.18 101.13 45.51 145.85 45.85 196.66 45.74 242.83 45.64 277.68 45.72

3-Wheeler TD VT 4.22 109.6 4.05 109.6 4.22 109.6 4.22 109.6 4.22 109.6 4.22 109.6 4.61 115.43 4.54 121.66 4.71 122.55 4.71 122.26 4.71 121.99 4.71 122.21

Taxi TD 1.2 2.2 3.48 4.17 4.86 5.55 1.45 2.67 4 4.77 5.54 6.3 VT 82 82 82 82 82 82 86.36 91.02 91.69 91.48 91.27 91.43

Bus TD 90.12 125.72 174.75 214.75 241.32 266.47 94.49 132.84 181.85 219.43 244.95 269.99 VT 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 Total 211 297 406 508 592 659 236 332 448 556 642 711
CO

Avg Speed 41 33 26 20 16 15 59 66 67 66 66 67

CI 1.23 1.59 1.98 2.39 2.72 2.9 0.62 0.44 0.41 0.43 0.44 0.42

1800 1600 1400 Tonnes/day 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 2005 S/UR/BAU 2010 2015 D/UR/BAU/25NG 2020 2025 0 2000 2005 S/UR/BAU 2010

Year

2015 D/UR/BAU/25NG

2020

2025

Total travel is more but emissions are less in general

Impact of change in assumptions

Avg. Speed 42.1 36.6 32.1 28.6 26.4 25.4 D/UR/BAU Total Travel CO 209 286 383 470 538 594 Avg. Speed 59 66 67 66 66 67 D/UR/BAU/25NG Total Travel CO 2 236 14929 332 21376 448 28675 556 35932 642 42295 711 46921

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

CI 1.18 1.4 1.62 1.81 1.94 2

2 11887 16418 22264 28184 33181 37795

CO 1106 1264 1287 1007 307 357

NOx 98 95 110 105 75 86

CI 0.62 0.44 0.41 0.43 0.44 0.42

CO 994 1014 881 496 278 300

NOx 94 97 104 94 92 103

Passenger Travel
50000 40000 Tonnes 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year

CO2
Total Travel

800 600 400 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year

D/UR/BAU

D/UR/BAU/25NG

D/UR/BAU

D/UR/BAU/25NG

Impact of Metro on emission of CO

2500.00 Tonnes/day 2000.00 1500.00 1000.00 500.00 0.00 2000 S/UR/BAU Years 2005 2010 2015 S/UR/ME2 2020 D/UR/ME2 2025

CO

D/UR/BAU

Impact of Metro on emission of NOx

160 140 Tonnes/day 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2005 2010 D/UR/BAU 2015 S/UR/ME2 2020 D/UR/ME2 Years 2025

NOx

S/UR/BAU

Impact of Bus lane on emissions

S/PL/BAU Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 S/BL/BAU Avg. Total Avg. Total Speed CI Travel CO Speed CI Travel CO 2 CO NOx 2 44.6 1.08 212 12067 1105 97 46 1.03 212 12031 36.5 1.41 297 17481 1356 101 37.9 1.35 297 17383 29.3 1.77 406 25141 1520 125 30.7 1.69 406 24859 23.2 2.15 509 34302 1341 127 24.5 2.06 509 33721 19.1 2.46 592 43621 452 90 20.2 2.37 592 42697 17.1 2.64 659 52123 570 105 18.1 2.55 659 50881 D/PL/BAU Avg. Total Avg. Speed CI Travel CO Speed 2 CO NOx 44.9 1.07 211 11999 1095 96 45.9 39.4 1.29 290 16575 1243 94 40.4 34.7 1.49 388 22391 1258 108 35.8 31 1.68 476 28247 980 105 32 28.6 1.81 545 33156 300 75 29.5 27.5 1.87 601 37700 346 86 28.4 Share of NOx NMT 95 5.6 100 5.5 123 5.3 125 5.1 89 4.9 104 4.7 Share of Nox NMT 96 5.6 94 5.5 108 5.3 104 5.1 75 4.9 86 4.7

CO 1090 1328 1476 1292 435 546

D/BL/BAU Total CI Travel CO 2 1.04 212 12045 1.25 291 16637 1.44 390 22452 1.62 479 28282 1.75 548 33159 1.82 605 37678

CO 1092 1235 1247 969 297 342

60000 50000 Tonnes 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 2005

CO2

2010

2015

2020

2025

Year

S/UR/BAU

S/UR/ME2

D/UR/BAU

D/UR/ME2

Impact of Pedestrian lane Some Counterintuitive Results

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Avg. Speed 40.7 32.7 25.7 20 16.3 14.6 CI 1.23 1.59 1.98 2.39 2.72 2.9 S/UR/BAU Total Travel CO 2 212 12219 297 17837 406 26039 509 36071 592 46410 659 55479 D/UR/BAU Total Travel CO 2 209 11887 286 16418 383 22264 470 28184 538 33181 594 37795 CO 1152 1442 1653 1489 504 627 NOx 101 107 131 132 92 108 Avg. Speed 44.6 36.5 29.3 23.2 19.1 17.1 CI 1.08 1.41 1.77 2.15 2.46 2.64

Table-6.6

S/PL/BAU Total Travel CO 2 212 12067 297 17481 406 25141 509 34302 592 43621 659 52123 D/PL/BAU Total Travel CO 2 211 11999 290 16575 388 22391 476 28247 545 33156 601 37700

CO 1105 1356 1520 1341 452 570

NOx 97 101 125 127 90 105

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Avg. Speed 42.1 36.6 32.1 28.6 26.4 25.4

CI 1.18 1.4 1.62 1.81 1.94 2

CO 1106 1264 1287 1007 307 357

NOx 98 95 110 105 75 86

Avg. Speed 44.9 39.4 34.7 31 28.6 27.5

CI 1.07 1.29 1.49 1.68 1.81 1.87

CO 1095 1243 1258 980 300 346

Nox 96 94 108 105 75 86

In dynamic scenarios not possible to find trend in emissions. In dynamic system difficult to know which loop dominates the dynamics. Dominance changes as various nonlinearities come in to play.

Impact of Pedestrian lane and Occupancy (Counterintuitive)

Table-6.13

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Avg. Speed 42.1 36.6 32.1 28.6 26.4 25.4

CI 1.18 1.4 1.62 1.81 1.94 2

D/UR/BAU Total Travel CO 2 209 11887 286 16418 383 22264 470 28184 538 33181 594 37795 D/UR/VO2 Total Travel CO2 209 11887 286 16418 387 18938 481 20989 556 21839 620 22448

CO 1106 1264 1287 1007 307 357

NOx 98 95 110 105 75 86

Avg. Speed 44.9 39.4 34.7 31 28.6 27.5

CI 1.07 1.29 1.49 1.68 1.81 1.87

D/PL/BAU Total Travel CO 2 211 11999 290 16575 388 22391 476 28247 545 33156 601 37700 D/PL/VO2 Total Travel CO2 211 11999 290 16575 393 19102 488 21133 565 21937 631 22522

CO 1095 1243 1258 980 300 346

NOx 96 94 108 105 75 86

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Avg. Speed 42.1 36.6 35 33.4 32.9 33.3

CI 1.18 1.4 1.48 1.55 1.58 1.56

CO 1106 1264 1052 708 217 229

NOx 98 95 91 80 59 65

Avg. Speed 44.9 39.4 38.1 36.6 36.2 36.7

CI 1.07 1.29 1.34 1.41 1.42 1.4

CO 1095 1243 1031 692 213 224

NOx 96 94 90 79 60 66

Pedestrian lane with rise in vehicle occupancy leads to rise in emissions as compared to rise in occupancy without pedestrian lane

Impact of Vehicle occupancy

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Avg. Speed 40.7 32.7 25.7 20 16.3 14.6 Avg. Speed 42.1 36.6 32.1 28.6 26.4 25.4 CI 1.23 1.59 1.98 2.39 2.72 2.9 S/UR/BAU Total Travel CO 2 212 12219 297 17837 406 26039 509 36071 592 46410 659 55479 D/UR/BAU Total Travel CO 2 209 11887 286 16418 383 22264 470 28184 538 33181 594 37795 CO 1152 1442 1653 1489 504 627 NOx 101 107 131 132 92 108 Avg. Speed 41 33 30 28 27 27 Avg. Speed 42 37 35 33 33 33 CI 1.23 1.59 1.73 1.86 1.92 1.89 S/UR/VO2 Total Travel CO 2 212 12219 297 17837 406 21185 509 24067 592 25506 659 26114 D/UR/VO2 Total Travel CO 2 209 11887 286 16418 387 18938 481 20989 556 21839 620 22448 CO 1152 1442 1257 877 270 287 NOx 101 107 104 91 65 71

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

CI 1.18 1.4 1.62 1.81 1.94 2

CO 1106 1264 1287 1007 307 357

NOx 98 95 110 105 75 86

CI 1.18 1.4 1.48 1.55 1.58 1.56

CO 1106 1264 1052 708 217 229

NOx 98 95 91 80 59 65

Percentage reduction
S/UR/VO2 2005 2015 2025 2005 2015 2025 0 33.28 52.93 0 25.53 40.58 0 41.12 54.27 0 29.66 35.63 0 32.79 40.1 0 23.11 22.16 0 31.38 34.63 0 24.39 24.04 0 30.06 48.63 0 26.86 44.27 0 27.66 48.94 0 12.3 25.8

D/UR/VO2

Impact of Vehicle occupancy

3.5 3 2.5 2 CI 1.5 1 0.5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year S/UR/BAU S/UR/VO2 D/UR/BAU D/UR/VO2 Tonnes/day

CI

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2005 S/UR/BAU S/UR/VO2

NOx
D/UR/BAU D/UR/VO2

2010

2015

2020

2025

Year

45 40 35 30 Km/hr 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2005

Avg Speed
S/UR/BAU S/UR/VO2 D/UR/BAU D/UR/VO2 Tonnes/day

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Year 0 2000 2005 S/UR/BAU S/UR/VO2

CO2
D/UR/BAU D/UR/VO2

2010

2015

2020

2025

2010

2015

2020

2025

Year

Results Impact of change in Modal share

Avg. Speed 40.7 32.7 25.7 20 16.3 14.6 S/UR/BAU Total Travel CO 2 212 12219 297 17837 406 26039 509 36071 592 46410 659 55479 Avg. Speed 43 35 30 28 29 31 S/UR/MS2 Total Travel CO 2 212 10401 297 15580 406 21174 509 24464 592 23975 659 23508

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

CI 1.23 1.59 1.98 2.39 2.72 2.9

CO 1152 1442 1653 1489 504 627

NOx 101 107 131 132 92 108

CI 1.14 1.49 1.75 1.87 1.8 1.66

CO 922 1215 1261 875 233 228

NOx 92 94 108 94 63 67

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Avg. Speed 42.1 36.6 32.1 28.6 26.4 25.4

CI 1.18 1.4 1.62 1.81 1.94 2

D/UR/BAU Total Travel CO 2 209 11887 286 16418 383 22264 470 28184 538 33181 594 37795

CO 1106 1264 1287 1007 307 357

NOx 98 95 110 105 75 86

Avg. Speed 44 37 34 33 34 35

CI 1.12 1.37 1.53 1.59 1.54 1.46

D/UR/MS2 Total Travel CO 2 209 10285 287 14875 386 19531 478 22075 557 21698 626 21657

CO 908 1125 1101 738 201 201

NOx 90 88 97 84 58 63

Modal Split
Scenarios Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2-WheelerCar/Jeep 25.24 23.39 20.8 27.77 18.15 29.16 16.53 31.14 15.63 33.14 14.82 34.19 25.54 23.67 20.45 28.04 17.63 29.81 15.18 31.82 13.66 33.9 11.52 34.44 20.74 19.01 16.6 25.73 14.56 25.96 13.1 24.15 13.66 20.13 12.65 17.67 3-Wheeler 1.97 1.32 0.99 0.78 0.66 0.59 2 1.16 0.8 0.53 0.45 0.46 1.92 1.17 0.97 0.76 0.56 0.36 Taxi 0.56 0.72 0.81 0.77 0.76 0.77 0.57 0.5 0.56 0.42 0.3 0.29 0.55 0.6 0.64 0.67 0.7 0.73 Bus Metro Share 43.19 0 43.93 0 45.6 0 45.69 0 44.89 0 44.88 0 42.58 0 42.33 2.06 43.02 2.89 42.23 4.71 40.78 5.99 40.44 8.11 48.48 0 41.76 6 42.42 8.5 42.97 12.55 43.53 16.8 44.08 21.05 NMT 5.64 5.46 5.29 5.11 4.92 4.74 5.64 5.46 5.29 5.11 4.92 4.74 9.3 8.13 6.97 5.8 4.63 3.46

D/UR/BAU

S/UR/ME2

S&D/UR/MS2

Impact of change in Modal share

60000 50000 Tonnes/day 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 Year 2005 2010 S/UR/MS2 2015 D/UR/BAU 2020 2025 D/UR/MS2

CO2

S/UR/BAU

Insights gained..

Limitations of the present work

The model uses a very aggregate level of data for estimation of emission inventories, traffic congestion and average vehicle speed. The model does not explicitly take into consideration the impact of changes in the land use pattern, growth in population, economic activity of the region etc. on the characteristics of transportation system.

Scope for Future Work

Explicitly assessing the impact of changes in land use pattern on the vehicle travel and overall emission patter. Assessing the impact of growth in IT and telecommunications network on travel demand and emissions. Estimation of vehicle activity (vehicle miles travel and average speed) lacks the accuracy and spatial resolution. The emission inventory estimates are done using highly aggregate fleet estimates and emission rates. In future the spatial resolution can be further refined and level of aggregation reduced. Implication of state of economy, tax policies, land use policies, tax incentives etc. can also be incorporated in the future modeling framework.

Significant contributions of the work

The model demonstrates the usefulness of system dynamics approach The model captures the adaptive dynamics of transport users Congestion index as a measure of road congestion Model integration Decision support tool

Thank you !
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Utility of the Model Development of a tool to assess alternative long term policies to mitigate emissions from transport sector. Estimation of vehicle emission inventory Technological as well as travel demand measures can be assessed. Provides a micro world to the policy makers where they can test alternative policies before implementing Realistic assessment of policies as closed loop dynamic interaction amongst various factors affecting transport emissions is considered