Alternative Energy

Justin Borevitz 1/10/07

Just drill in the Artic
Just gasify coal
Just put CO2 underground
Just buy a hybrid
"'m done
Just use methane
:.0,7
Just invade ran
Just invaded Somalia
Just let it happen
like it warm
do polar bears?
More corn for ethanol
like to eat corn anyhow
%he Energy Problem
How will society meet
growing energy
demands in a
sustainable manner?
Fossil-fuels currently
supply ~80% of world
energy demand.
Are Biofuels the Answer?...
Biofuels as an Alternative
Biofuels are not %HE answer to
sustainable energy, but biofuels may be
part of the answer
Biofuels may offer advantages over fossil
fuels, but the magnitude of these
advantages depends on how a biofuel
crop is grown and converted into a usable
fuel
Analysis of Alternative Biofuels
"First generation biofuels: food-based
biofuels that are currently commercially
available:
Corn-grain ethanol
Soy Biodiesel
"Second generation biofuels: cellulosic
biofuels of the future
Diverse prairie biomass
Biofuels.. Renewable/sustainable?
Fossil fuel subsidy?
Soil fertility subsidy?
Water subsidy?
Land use subsidy?
Biodiversity/ecological subsidy?
Farmer subsidy?
Civil/ social subsidy?
Biofuels.. Carbon neutral?
Fossil fuel subsidy?
Fertilizer, pesticide, plant, harvest, process
Soil fertility source or sink?
Land use
from conservation (eg rainforest), CO2 sinks
from food production
Carbon cost processing
nvestment in time
nvestment in $$
Biofuels saves us
Corn based ethanol subsidized at $0.51
on the dollar
Corn for corn $0.50 on the dollar
$500M DOE research funding
All arable US land to ethanol, 1/3 of
foreign oil. Food?
owa $1B in 4 ethanol distillers
Evolution of Ecosystems
Niche colonization, spatial temporal
Synergistic interactions among kingdoms
Local and regional adaptation, within and
between species
Prairie disturbance
Large herbivores
Early Man/woman's fire
Colonial man's plow,
Now industrial man's intensive agriculture
Next post industrial man/woman's harvest
of biomass?
C4 and C3 grasses
Plant Physiology
How would both help?
cool season warm season
How Much Do %hey Supply?
Corn grain ethanol (2005):
14.3% of the US corn harvest was used to
produce 1.48x10
10
L of ethanol annually
Energetically equivalent to 1.72% of US
gasoline use
Soy biodiesel (2005)
1.5% of the US soybean harvest produced
2.56x10
8
L of biodiesel annually
0.09% of US diesel use
But How Much Could %hey Supply?
Devoting all US corn and soybean
production to biodiesel and ethanol would
generate:
12% of US gasoline consumption
6% of US diesel consumption
n terms of net energy gain:
2.4% of US gasoline consumption
2.9% of US diesel consumption
Food vs. Fuel: mpact on Corn Prices
Average corn grain yield and NO
3
-N concentration in soil water at 7.5 feet in Nov.
1992 as influenced by nitrogen rates from 1987-91 for corn in Olmsted Co.
(From Randall et al.).
1987-91 rate
(lb N/A per yr)
1987-91 Avg.
Grain Yield (bu/A)
NO
3
-N Concentration
in soil water at 7.5 feet (ppm)
0 82 2
75 141 4
150 168 17
225 164 32

Ethanol Demand and Corn Prices
Large increase in demand for corn for
ethanol production
Production capacity over 5 billion gallons
Projected to increase to over 9 billion gallons
with current plants under construction
Corn prices in January 2007 topped
$4/bushel
Price has doubled since early 2006
Are Biofuels Cost Competitive?
n 2005, neither biofuel was cost-competitive with
petroleum but as petroleum prices increased the gap
closed
Ethanol:
Estimated ethanol production cost in 2005 was $0.46 per
gasoline energy equivalent L
Wholesale gasoline prices averaged $0.44/L in 2005
Soy biodiesel
Estimated soybean biodiesel production cost in 2005 was $0.55
per diesel EEL,
Diesel wholesale prices averaged $0.46/L in 2005
Recent price effects unfavorable for biofuels:
Lower fossil-fuel prices
Higher corn prices
Summary
Corn grain ethanol and soy biodiesel can
make up only a small portion of fuel supply
Subsidize environmentally friendly biofuels
Subsidy for corn grain ethanol does not
appear justified
Subsidy for soy biodiesel may be justified
Should look to other sources
Second Generation Biofuels:
Cellulosic Feedstock.
Switchgrass Wheat Straw Hybrid Poplar Corn Stalks Switchgrass Wheat Straw Hybrid Poplar Corn Stalks
University of Minnesota nitiative for
Renewable Energy and the
Environment
lydroger 8|o-oased
Valer|a|s
Ecosyslers Corserval|or Ecoror|c
ara|ys|s
Po||cy
Researcr C|uslers 0erorslral|or C|uslers
e.g. Vorr|s projecl
RereWao|e Erergy & lre Erv|rorrerl
Fermentor:
%he workhorse
Bio-based methods
for
Materials
Energy
%e Next Generation of Biofuels: %e Next Generation of Biofuels:
Greenouse Greenouse- -Neutral Biofuels from Neutral Biofuels from
Hig Hig- -Diversity Low Diversity Low- -Input Input
Prairie Ecosystems Prairie Ecosystems
by by
David Tilman David Tilman
University oI Minnesota University oI Minnesota
earning Irom Current BioIuels:
Ethanol Irom Corn and Biodiesel Irom Soybeans
legumes
Symbiotic relationship with rhizobium
bacteria to fix nitrogen,
even Word knows this "a soil bacterium that
forms nodules on the roots of legumes such
as beans and clover and takes up nitrogen
from the atmosphere. Genus: Rhizobium
Species Functional type
Lupinis perennis Legume
Andropogon gerardi C4 grass
Schizachyrium scoparium C4 grass
Sorghastrum nutans C4 grass
Solidago rigida Forb
Amorpha canescens Woody legume
Lespedeza capitata Legume
Poa pratensis C3 grass
Petalostemum purpureum Legume
Monarda fistulosa Forb
Achillea millefolium Forb
Panicum virgatum switchgrass! C4 grass
Liatris aspera Forb
Quercus macrocarpa Woody
Koeleria cristata C3 grass
Quercus elipsoidalis Woody
Elymus canadensis C3 grass
Agropyron smithii C3 grass
Low
nput
High
Diversity
Experimental Design
Been running since 1994
168 - 9m x 9m plots, in 1 location in Minnesota
1, 2, 4, 8, or 16 perenniaI grassland/ savanna species.
from a set of 18 perennials: 4 C4, 4 C3 grasses, 3
herbaceous and 1 woody/shrubby legume, 4 non-legume
herbaceous forbs, and 2 oak species
Watered initially, weeded 3-4 times (to maintain low
diversity, like a crop), burned each Spring (which killed
the woody species, or plots were left (152 plots) out as
not measures of annual biomass)
Net Energy Balance of Corn
Ethanol and Soybean Biodiesel
Environmental effects.
Fertilizer use Pesticide application
Environmental effects of
ethanol and biodiesel
Greenhouse
gasses
reduced by both
relative to
gasoline and
diesel
combustion
Current and Maximal Potential
Production of Food-Based Biofuels:
Current US Biofuel Current US Biofuel
Production (2005) Production (2005)
evoting entire US evoting entire US
crop production to crop production to
biofueI biofueI
Corn grain ethanol Corn grain ethanol
1.7% of gasoline usage 1.7% of gasoline usage
14% of corn harvest 14% of corn harvest
12.0% of gasoline usage 12.0% of gasoline usage
100% of corn harvest 100% of corn harvest
2.4% Net Energy Gain 2.4% Net Energy Gain
Soybean biodiesel Soybean biodiesel
0.1% of diesel usage 0.1% of diesel usage
1.5% of soybean harvest 1.5% of soybean harvest
6.0% of diesel usage 6.0% of diesel usage
100% of soybean 100% of soybean
harvest harvest
2.9% Net Energy Gain 2.9% Net Energy Gain
%oward better biofuels:
1) Biomass feedstock producible with low
inputs (e.g., fuel, fertilizers, and pesticides)
2) Producible on land with low agricultural
value
3) Conversion of feedstock into biofuels
should require low net energy inputs
%e Cedar Creek Biodiversity Experiment
Established to study the fundamental impacts
of biological diversity on ecosystem
functioning
352 Plots
9 m x 9 m
Random Compositions
1, 2, 4, 8, or 16 Species
Plus, 70 Plots wit 32
Species
(1994-Present)
High Diversity Grasslands Produce
238%
More Biofuel Each Year %han
Monocultures
Switcgrass
Current and future biofuels

Etanol
Production
Corn
Production
Seed
Fertilizer
(N, P, K)
Herbicides,
Pesticides
Production Energy
(Diesel, Electricity, etc.)
Producer Household
Energy Consumption
Farming
Methods
Irrigation
and Use
(Opportunity Cost)
Water Impacts
Soil Impacts
Energy Inputs
(Electricity, Natural
Gas, Steam, etc.)
Erosion
Nutrient
Depletion
Contamination
Sedimentation
Nutrient
oading
Production Inputs
(Enzymes, Yeast,
Ammonia, Urea, SulIuric
Acid, Water, etc.)
Co-generation
(Steam, Heat)
Etanol
Distillers
Dry Grain
Wastewater
Air Emissions
(VOx, particulates)
Gas
(5 by volume)
Aesthetic Costs
(odor, etc.)
Recreation,
Aesthetics
CO2 Capture
Combustion
Emissions
Storage and
Distribution
Full cost accounting for Corn EtOH
Use of full cost accounting
%o compare alternative energy sources,
we should consider the full costs not just
the direct costs
Energy sources that have lowest full cost
to produce a unit of energy are the most
desirable (i.e., greatest net benefit)
Challenge: estimating major external
costs for alternative sources of energy
mportance of inclusion of
external costs
ncluding external costs makes any
particular energy source look less
attractive
What is of importance is not cost estimate
of any particular source, but the
comparison across sources
Not including external costs unfairly
penalizes renewable sources of energy
because of the generally high external
costs of fossil-fuel use
Diverse Prairies
Remove & Store Carbon
Diverse plots store C in Roots
Diverse plots store more C in
Soil
High-Diversity
Prairie BioIuels
Are Carbon
Negative
3.3 t/ha C Storage
0.3 t/ha Fossil C
Net Storage oI
3.0 t/ha oI CO2
ess CO2 in
Atmosphere
AIter Fuel Growth
And Use than BeIore
LHD: Potential Global Effects?
May Meet 15 to 20 oI
Global Electricity & Trans. Fuel Demand
Creenhouse Cas Impact per Hectare:
2.3 t ha yr
-1
oI C net displacement oI Iossil Iuel by biomass
1.1 t ha yr
-1
oI C sequestration in soil and roots
3.4 t ha yr
-1
total net reduction in atmosphere C loading
Degraded Land Base:
(51.0 x 10
8
ha globally oI agricultural land)
0.7 x 10
8
ha abandoned - US
1.2 x 10
8
ha abandoned - other OEDC nations
3.0 x 10
8
in non-OEDC nations
4.9 x 10
8
current total agric degraded land
3.4 t ha yr
-1
x 4.9 x 10
8
ha 1.7 x 10
9
t/yr reduction in C (as
CO
2
) input into atmosphere
Potential oI a 24 Reduction in CO
2
Emissions
Low-nput High-Diversity Biofuels
Can be produced on degraded
agricultural lands, sparing native
ecosystems & food production
Negative net CO
2
emissions (carbon
sinks)
Highly sustainable and stable fuel
supply
Cleaner rivers and groundwater
More energy per acre than food-based
biofuels
ig. 1. Effects of plant diversity on biomass energy yield and CO2 sequestration for low-input perennial grasslands. (A) Gross energy
content of harvested above ground biomass (20032005 plot averages) increases with plant species number. (B) Ratio of mean
biomass energy production of 16-species (LHD) treatment to means of each lower diversity treatment. Diverse plots became
increasingly more productive over time. (C) Annual net increase in soil organic carbon (expressed as mass of CO2 sequestered in
upper 60 cm of soil) increases with plant diversity as does () annual net sequestration of atmospheric carbon (as mass of CO2) in
roots of perennial plant species. Solid curved lines are log fits; dashed curved lines give 95% confidence intervals for these fits. [View
Larger Version of this mage (156K JPEG file)]
ig. 2. NEB for two food-based biofuels (current biofuels) grown on fertile soils and for LHD
biofuels from agriculturally degraded soil. NEB is the sum of all energy outputs (including
coproducts) minus the sum of fossil energy inputs. NEB ratio is the sum of energy outputs divided
by the sum of fossil energy inputs. Estimates for corn grain ethanol and soybean biodiesel are from
().
ig. 3. Environmental effects of
bioenergy sources. (A) GHG
reduction for complete life cycles
from biofuel production through
combustion, representing
reduction relative to emissions
from combustion of fossil fuels
for which a biofuel substitutes.
(B) Fertilizer and (C) pesticide
application rates are U.S.
averages for corn and soybeans
(). For LHD biomass,
application rates are based on
analyses of table S2 ().
We assume that producing seed for planting prairies requires twice the energy used to produce prairie biomass, and that two or three hectares can be planted from the seeds
harvested from each hectare of degraded or fertile prairie, respectively. We divide this total energy input over an assumed 30 year life of the prairie. | We assume 30.5 L ha-1 of
diesel are used in the first year for spraying, disking, planting, and mowing (S), and that diesel releases 36.6 MJ L-1. We distribute this total energy input over a 30 year life of
the prairie. Annual fuel use for mowing, baling, an`d fertilizing is 13.8 L ha-1.

We estimate the weight of equipment used in production (i.e., boom sprayer, tandem disk, notill drill, rotary mower/conditioner, hay merger, large rectangular baler, 75 hp tractor,
130 hptractor, pull spreader, loader, and bale spike) to be 3.6 104 kg. We assume for purposes of calculating the embodied energy of each piece of machinery that it consist
entirely of steel and that it takes 25 MJ kg-1 to produce steel (S, S) with an additional 50% for assembly (S).
We distribute this over a 30 year life of the prairie and a 240 ha size of the farm.

We assume a first year 2.24 kg ha-1 application rate of glyphosate, which requires 475 MJ/kg to produce and distribute (S). We divide this energy input over an assumed 30
year life of theprairie. We assume phosphorus fertilizer, which takes 9.2 MJ/kg to produce and transport (S), is applied every three years at a rate of 7.4 kg ha-1 yr-1 on
degraded prairie and 12.0 kgha-1 yr-1 on fertile prairie to replace phosphorus removed in harvested biomass. || %he 2004 U.S. per capita energy use was 3.58 105 MJ (S,
S). We assume household size of 2.5 people (S), 50% of farm household labor devoted to farming (S), and a 240 ha farm.
We estimate 24 and 38 L ha-1 of diesel is used to move bales onto and off of tractor trailers for degraded and fertile prairies, respectively (S). We assume bales weigh 680
kg, each tractor trailer can haul 27 bales, and bales are transported an average of 40 km to their point of end use. With an average fleet efficiency of 2.2 km/L (S), 36.4 L of
diesel are used in a single round trip to haul the bales produced on 4.9 ha of degraded prairie or 3.0 ha of fertile prairie.
Although we have data on biomass production on fertile soils for prairie, we do not have comparable data
on LHD carbon storage in such soils, and thus do not present this case in this table.
| Values are from (S).
%his includes diesel used for producing prairie seed, planting and harvesting, and transporting bales.
Diesel life cycle GHG emissions are 3.01 103 g CO2 eq. L-1 (S). We also include GHG release in
pesticide production, sustaining farm households, and producing farm capital and machinery by assuming
they require use of an amount of diesel equivalent to the energy expenditure of these inputs.
%his value is the amount of fossil fuels each use of biomass displaces (energy equivalent) multiplied by the
life cycle GHG emissions of the displaced fossil fuels. We assume ethanol displaces gasoline (life cycle
GHG emission = 96.9 g CO2 eq. MJ-1) (S), biomass-generated electricity displaces coal-generated
electricity (life cycle GHG emission = 289.5 g CO2 eq. MJ-1) (S), and synfuel displaces 38% gasoline and
62% diesel (life cycle GHG emission = 82.3 g CO2 eq. MJ-1) (S, S).
Burgeoning real estate market in
Greenland
Final %hought
"Agriculturalists are the de facto managers
of the most productive lands on Earth.
Sustainable agriculture will require that
society appropriately rewards ranchers,
farmers and other agriculturalists for the
production of both food and ecosystem
services. (%ilman et al. Nature 2003)