Expert Systems

Chapter One

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Lecture One(MAH)

Fundamentals of Expert Systems

Introduction Expert System Was derived from the term

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Fundamentals of Expert Systems

History of Expert System

Es is developed by the AI community early mid 1960s During this period of AI research is dominated by a believe that few laws of reasoning coupled with powerful computers would produce expert or even super human performance. GPS by Newell and Simon

Early Examples:

From their logic theory of machine Was an attempt to create an intelligent computer Predecessor to ES Designed to change a certain initial situation in to
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Fundamentals of Expert Systems History of ..(cont)

It also has an optional set of heuristics for operators to try first In ES terms these form a rule base GPS attempts to find list of operators that reduce the difference between a goal and current states Sometimes, the operators cannot operate on the current states (their preconditions are not suitable) GPS sets itself a sub goal to change the current state into one that is suitable for the operators Many such sub goals may have to be set before GPS can solve a problem 5/5/12 Lecture One(MAH)

Fundamentals of Expert Systems History of .(cont)

Early expert system

Marked by Shift from general purpose to special purpose programs Mid 1960s with the development of DENDRAL by E. Feigenbaun at Stanford university, followed by the development of MYCIN and when researchers also recognized that the problem solving mechanism is only a small part of a complete, intelligent computer system DENDRAL construction led the following conclusions

GPS are too weak Human problem solver are good only if they operate in a very narrow domain Expert systems need to be constantly updated for new information(rule based representation is needed) and the complexity of problems requires a considerable amount of knowledge about the problem area

5/5/12 Lecture One(MAH) Several expert systems had begun to emerge(reading assignment)

Fundamentals of Expert Systems History of .(cont)

But due to similar reasons to the general problem solvers, comprehensive knowledge had limited success Knowledge-based problems in general were premature Knowledge as a target of study is too broad and diverse Nevertheless, several different approaches to knowledge representation proved sufficient for the expert systems that employed them Key insight learned at that time was the power of an ES that can be derived from the knowledge it possesses not from the particular formalisms and inference scheme it employs(Expert knowledge per se seems both necessary and sufficient to develop an expert system) Beginning of the 1980s, ES technology, first limited to the academic scene, began to appear as commercial applications XCON (Digital Equipment Corp.), XSEL(digital equipment corp.) and CATS (General 5/5/12 Lecture One(MAH) Electric)

Fundamentals of Expert Systems History of.(contd)

Programming tools (EMYCIN, AGE, EXPERT, KAS) Tools for learning from experience(META,DENDRAL, EURISKO) Commercially available starting in 1983 Most of the development tools required special hardware(LISP machines) But the late 1980s, development software can run on regular computers including microcomputers Latest developments of in Expert system area

Availability of many tools that are designed to expedite the construction of ES at a reduced cost Dissemination of ES in thousands of organizations, some of which has many specific systems
5/5/12 Lecture many tasks Increased use of expert system inOne(MAH)

Fundamentals of Expert Systems History of(contd)

Use of ES technology as a methodology for expediting the construction of regular information systems Increased use of the object-oriented programming approach in knowledge representation Development of complex systems with multiple sources of knowledge, multiple lines of reasoning and fuzzy information Use of multiple knowledge base

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Lecture One(MAH)

Fundamentals of Expert Historical Overview: Detail Systems At the beginning(1956) all projects use the same programming

language such as LISP or PROLOG.

List processing Language PROgramming in LOGic It created in the late 1950s. Facilitate symbol manipulation (Intelligent behaviors can be represented easily) It was found to be difficult to master.

LISP

So that its use is limited to AI research programs in academic circle. 5/5/12 Lecture One(MAH)

Fundamentals of Expert HistoricalSystems Overview: Detail

LISP

In addition, the many dialects of LISP is a problem. Fortunately, this situation improved in mid-1970s with the introduction of a LISP standard called Common LISP. LISP has its roots in one area of mathematics (lambda calculus) .

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Fundamentals of Expert Historical Overview: Detail Systems PROLOG

In the early 1970s PROLOG invented in France. It also roots in one area of mathematics (first-order predicate calculus). PROLOG, however, did not immediately become a language of choice for AI programmers . Until the early 1980s when the Japanese use a logic programming language for the Fifth Generation Computing Systems (FGCS) Project. After than researchers in the U.K. and Japan adopted PROLOG for developing intelligent programs. It consists of English-like statements which are facts, rules, and questions. Both LISP, PROLOG required a disciplined student to master it,
Lecture One(MAH)

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Fundamentals ofDetail Historical Overview: Expert Systems PROLOG

Due to this until the years of 1970s few expert systems were built. Also, since these systems were built from scratch, development time was large. MYCIN project that dramatically changed this situation. (1976, Stanford University to aid physicians)

To diagnosing and treating patients with infectious blood diseases caused by bacteremia .

MYCIN

Took approximately 20 person-years to complete. MYCIN is a rule-based expert system.

Lecture One(MAH) uses backward chaining and

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Fundamentals of Expert Systems MYCIN

At the end of the project, the MYCIN developers realized that by separating the knowledge on infectious diseases from its control, then the code written for the other modules should be portable to other applications. By removing the knowledge about infectious blood diseases, a system known as EMYCIN was formed. EMYCIN facilitated the development of other expert systems, such as PUFF an application for the diagnosis of pulmonary problems. The separation of knowledge from its processing is a powerful feature of expert systems that permits the reuse of existing code and greatly reduces the development time for other systems.
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Historical Overview: Detail

Fundamentals ofDetail Expert Historical Overview: For example, PUFF was Systems person-years. produced in about 5
when the number of shell vendors began to grow rapidly. Generally the dominant languages used for building an expert system have been LISP, PROLOG and OPS (Official Production System ). Recently, C and C++ have also been used for system development.
Software used in expert system development.

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Fundamentals of Expert Historical Overview: Detail Systems of the needed facilities OPS provides flexibility by providing many
such as the inference engine and explanation facility. The percentage of systems built using shells has increased slightly over the 1993, while percentages for the languages have all decreased slightly.

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Number of Lecture One(MAH) systems per developed expert year

Fundamentals of Expert Systemswhich are the core Basic Concepts of Expert systems
concepts of the course

The CATS-1 example introduces the basic concepts of expert systems:

Expertise

The extensive, task-specific knowledge acquired from training, reading, and

5/5/12 experience that Lecture One(MAH) enable experts to make better

Fundamentals of Expert Rules(heuristics) of what to do in a given problem situation( rules regarding Systems
problem solving) Global strategies for solving problems Meta-knowledge (knowledge about knowledge)

It takes a long time (usually several years) to become an expert, and novices become experts only incrementally Experts:

Difficult to define because of levels of degrees or level of expertise (how much expertise should a person possess before qualifying as an expert)

Non experts outnumber experts in many fields It is possible to increase top level expertise available to other decision makers Human expertise includes a constellation of behavior that involves the following activities that must be done efficiently (quickly and at low cost) and effectively(a high quality result)

Recognizing and formulating the problem Solving the problem quickly and properly( ES primarily employed)

5/5/12 Lecture One(MAH) Explaining the solution (ES primarily Employed)

exhibits all the above characteristics Transferring expertise: the objective of an expert system is to transfer expertise from an expert to a computer and then on to other humans(non experts). It involves four activities: Knowledge acquisition from experts or other sources Knowledge representation in the computer Knowledge inferencing Knowledge transfer to the user The knowledge is stored in the computer in a component called a knowledge base. Two types of knowledge are distinguished: facts and procedures(usually rules) regarding the position domain
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Fundamentals of Expert To mimic the human Systems to build a computer that expert, it is necessary

Fundamentals of Expert Systems Inferencing:

A unique feature of an expert system is its ability to reason The attempt(aim) is that all the expertise is stored in the knowledge base and that the program has accessibility to databases, the computer is programmed so that it can make inference The inferencing is performed in a component called the inference engine, which includes procedure regarding problem solving Rules: Most commercial ES are rule based systems; that is, the knowledge is stored mainly in the form of rules, as are the problem solving procedures. A rule in the CATS-1 example may look like this:If the engine is idle, and the fuel pressure is less than 38 psi, and the gauge is accurate, then there is a fuel system fault(60 rules of such type are there in CATS-1 system Frame representation is complementing the rule representation

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Fundamentals of Expert Systems Explanation capability:

Another unique feature of ES It is expert systems ability to explain its advice or recommendations and even to justify why a certain action was not recommended the explanation and justification is done in a sub system called justifier or explanation system to examine its own reasoning and to explain its operation The characteristics and capabilities of ES make them different from conventional systems

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Lecture One(MAH)

Information and its processing are usually combined intoKnowledge base is clearly separated from the one sequential program processing(inference) mechanism (knowledge rules separated from control)

Fundamentals of Expert Conventional SystemsSystems Expert Systems

Program does not make mistakes (programmers do)Program may make mistakes Do not(usually) explain why input data are neededExplanation is a part of most ES or how conclusions are drawn
Changes in the program are tedious Changes in the rules are easy to accomplish

The system operates only when it is completed

Execution is done on a step-by-step(algorithmic) basis Need complete information to operate Effective manipulation of large databases Representation and use of data Efficiency is a major goal Easily deal with quantitative data

The system can operate with only a few rules

Execution is done by using heuristics and logic Can operate with incomplete or uncertain information Effective manipulation of large knowledge bases Representation and use of knowledge Effectiveness is the major goal Easily deal with qualitative data

Capture, magnify, and distribute access to numeric dataCapture, magnify, and distribute access to judgment and 5/5/12 Lecture One(MAH) or to information knowledge

Fundamentals of Expert Systems Structure of Expert System

Expert systems are composed of two major parts: the development and the consultation(runtime). The development environment is used by ES builder to build the components and to introduce a non expert to obtain expert knowledge and advice. The following components may exist in an expert system:

Knowledge acquisition subsystem:

is the accumulation, transfer, and transformation of problem solving expertise from some knowledge source to a computer program for constructing or expediting the knowledge base. Potential sources of knowledge include human experts, text books, databases, special research reports, and pictures
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Fundamentals of Expert Systems

Structure of Expert .(contd)

Knowledge acquisition systemcontd

Acquiring knowledge from experts is a complex task that frequently creates a bottleneck in ES construction. The state of the art today requires a knowledge engineer to interact with one or more human experts in building the knowledge base Typically, the knowledge engineer helps the expert structure the problem area by interpreting and integrating human answers to questions, drawing, analogies, posing counter examples, and bringing to light conceptual difficulties

Knowledge base:
5/5/12 Contains Lecture One(MAH) necessary elements for understanding, formulating and

Fundamentals of Experiment
Structure of Expert .(contd)

Knowledge Base.contd

Includes two basic elements:

Facts, such as the problem situation and theory of the problem area Special heuristics, or rules that direct the use of knowledge to solve specific problems in a particular domain. The heuristics express the informal judgmental knowledge in an application area.

Global strategies , which can be both heuristics and a part of a theory of the problem area, are usually included in the knowledge base. Knowledge, not mere facts, is the primary material of expert systems. The information in the knowledge base is incorporated in the computer program by a process called knowledge representation
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Fundamental Experiment
Structure of Expert .(contd)

Inference Engine

The brain of the ES is the inference engine, also known as the control structure or the rule interpreter (in rule-based ES) This component is essentially a computer program that provides a methodology for reasoning about information in a knowledge base and in the blackboard, and for formulating conclusions This component provides directions about how to use the systems knowledge by developing the agenda that organizes and controls the steps taken to solve problems whenever consultation is performed It has three major elements:

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An interpreter (rule interpreter in most systems) , which executes the choice agenda items by applying the corresponding knowledge base rules)
Lecture One(MAH)

Fundamental Experiment
Structure of Expert .(contd)

Inference Engine

A scheduler, which maintains control over the agenda. It estimates effects of applying inference rules in light of item priorities or other criteria on the agenda A consistency enforcer, which attempts to maintain a consistent representation of the emerging solution

Blackboard:

Is an area of working memory set aside for the description of a current problem, as specified by the input data It is also used for recording intermediate results
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It records intermediate hypotheses and decisions Lecture One(MAH)

Structure of Expert .(contd) Black Board

Fundamental experiment
Plan-how to attack the problem Agenda-potential actions awaiting execution Solution-candidate hypotheses and alternative courses of action that the system has generated thus far

Three types of decisions can be recorded on the blackboard

It exists only in some systems

User Interface: Expert systems contain a language processor for friendly problemoriented communication between the user and the computer.

This communication could best be carried out in natural language, and in some cases it is supplemented by menus and graphics

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Fundamentals of Expert System

Structure of Expert .(contd)

Explanation subsystem(justifier)

The ability to trace responsibility for conclusions to their sources is crucial both in the transfer of expertise and in problem solving The explanation subsystem can trace such responsibility and explain the ES behavior by interactively answering questions such as the following:

Why was a certain question asked by the expert system? How was a certain conclusion reached? Why was a certain alternative rejected? is the plan to reach the solution? e.g. what remains to be Lecture One(MAH) established before a final diagnosis can be determined?

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Structure of Expert .(contd)

Knowledge Refining System:

Fundamentals of Experiment System

Human experts have a knowledge refining system; that is, they can analyze their own performance, learn from it, and improve it for future consultations. Similarly, such evaluation is necessary in computerized learning so that the program will be able to analyze the reasons for its success or failure. This could lead to improvements that result in a better knowledge base and more effective reasoning This component is not available in commercial expert systems, but available in experimental expert systems in academics
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Consultation Environment
Expert Knowled ge

User Interface Recomm ended Action

Knowledgebase Facts what is known about the domain area Explanati Rules Logical reference(e.g. Between symptoms and on causes) Knowled Facility ge Knowled Engineer ge Acquisiti Inference Engine Expert on Interpreter Knowled Draws Conclusions ge Scheduler Consistency Enforcer Knowle Blackboard(workplace) Plan Agenda Solution Lecture Problem One(MAH) Description

Facts about the specific incident

Development Environment

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dge Refine ment

Fundamentals of Experiment System

The human element in expert systems

At least two humans or more participate in the development and use of an expert system At a minimum, there is an expert and a user Frequently, there is also a knowledge engineer and a system builder

(Domain)Expert:

A person who has the special knowledge, judgment, experience, and methods along with the ability to apply these talents to give advice and solve problems It is the domain experts job to provide knowledge about how he or she performs the task that the knowledge system will perform

The expert knows which facts are important and understands 5/5/12 the meaning of theLecture One(MAH) relationships among facts

Fundamentals of Expert System

The human element of expert system

Domain expert ..

The usual initial body of knowledge , including terms and basic concepts , is documented in textbooks, reference manuals, sets of policies, or a catalogue of products However, this is not sufficient for powerful ES Not all expertise can be documented because most experts are unaware of the exact mental process by which they diagnose or solve problem Thus, an interactive procedure is needed to acquire additional information from the expert to expand the basic knowledge process is fairly complex and usually requires the Lecture One(MAH)

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The human element in expert system

Fundamentals of Expert System

The Knowledge Engineer

The knowledge engineer helps the expert(s) in structuring the problem area by:

Interpreting and integrating to questions by

Drawing analogies posing counterexamples Bringing to light conceptual difficulties

Knowledge engineer is also a system builder Shortage of knowledge engineers is a major bottleneck in ES construction To overcome this bottleneck ES designers are using productivity tools(special editors) Research is being conducted on building systems that will bypass the 5/5/12 Lecture One(MAH)

Fundamentals of Expert System The human element in expert system

The user

Most computer-based systems have evolved in a single-user mode In contrast an ES has several possible types of users:

A non-expert client seeking direct advice to act as a consultant or advisor A student who want to learn so that ES can act as instructor An ES builder who wants to improve or increase the knowledge base so that ES can act as a partner (collaborator) An expert so that ES acts as a colleague(assistant)

The knowledge engineer and the domain expert should anticipate users needs and limitations when designing ES
Lecture One(MAH) The 5/5/12 capabilities of ES were developed to save users time and effort

Other participants

Fundamentals of expert Systems

A System builder helps to integrate the expert system with other computerized systems A tool builder provide generic or build specific tools Vendors that provide tools and advice Support staff provide clerical and technical help

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Fundamentals of expert Participants of ES Systems

Tool builder Bui ld Tools, language Expert Document Sup Acquir ed port ing knowledge task Expert KnowlBuil Use Knowledg s system edge d e Us engineer Buil Corp e Pro Use orate d Conn vide ect System End user Vender builder
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Test

Support staff

How expert system work

Development: construction of knowledge base(fact and procedures), inference engine(development and acquisition), blackboard, explanation facility, interfaces) Consultation: Transferring to users and consulting it when they need advice by conducting bidirectional dialogue with the system so that they can get solutions in terms of conclusions Improvement of ES several times through a process called rapid prototyping during their development

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Fundamentals of Expert
Lecture One(MAH)

Process of building (developing) ES can be lengthy. A tool that is frequently used to expedite development called ES shell is used ES shell include all the generic components of an ES but they do not include the knowledge. E.g. : EMYCIN Problem Areas Addressed by Expert Systems ES systems can be classified in several ways. One way of classifying is a generic categorization that uses the general problem areas they address.
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Fundamentals of Expert system

Category

Fundamentals of Expert Systems Generic Categories of Expert Systems

Problem addressed

Interpretation Inferring situation descriptions from observations (includes surveillance, speech understanding, image analysis, signal interpretation, and many kinds of intelligence analysis) Prediction

Inferring likely consequences of given situations (weather forecasting, demographic predictions, economic forecasting, traffic predictions, crop estimates, and military, marketing or financial forecasting)

Diagnosis Design Planning Monitoring Debugging Repair Instruction Control 5/5/12

Inferring system malfunctions from observations( medical, electronic, mechanical, and software) Configuring objects under constraints (circuit layout, building design, and plant layout)

Developing plans to achieve goal(s) (routing, communications, production development, etc) Comparing observations to plans(standards), flagging exceptions(air traffic, etc) Prescribing remedies for malfunctions( Executing a plan to administer a prescribed remedy Diagnosing, debugging, and correcting student performance Interpreting, predicting, repairing, and monitoring system behaviors Lecture One(MAH)

Fundamentals of expert Systems Tasks suitable for expert systems

Too hard (requires human intelligence)

To easy (Requires Just right conventional software)

Payroll, inventory Sample tax returns Decision trees

Diagnosing and troubleshooting Analyzing diverse data Production scheduling

Designing new tools or a cover for magazine Stock market prediction Discovering new principles Every day language(commonsense) problems Developing new statistical tests Require innovation or discovery(commonsense)

Database management Equipment layout

Mortgage computationAdvise on tax shelters Regression analysis

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Determine type of Lecture One(MAH) statistical analysis

Fundamentals of expert Systems Benefits of Expert systems

Increased output and productivity: Es can work faster than humans Increased Quality: ES can increase quality by providing consistent advice and reducing error rate Reduce downtime: many operational ES are used for diagnosing malfunctions and prescribing repairs Capture of scarce resources(leave, retire, needed across a broad geography) flexibility in providing services and in manufacturing Easier equipment operation: Es makes complex equipment easier to operate. E.g. STEAMER is an ES intended to train inexperienced workers to operate complex ship engines
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Fundamentals of expert Systems

Benefits of . Increased capabilities of other computerized systems(Integration) Integration several expert opinions that increase the quality of advice Ability with to work with incomplete or uncertain information . A user can interact with the system with do not know or not sure answer Provision of training: ES can provide training Enhancement of problem solving as it allows the integration of top experts judgment into analysis. They increase users understanding through explanation Ability to solve complex problems but in narrow domain Knowledge transfer to remote locations which is more important to developing countries
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Fundamentals of expert Systems

Benefits of .

Elimination of the need for expensive equipment because of their ability to control thoroughly and quickly the information provided by instruments Operation in hazardous environments :e.g. in military conflicts, hot, humid, or toxic environments Accessibility to knowledge and helpdesks: 5/5/12 Lecture One(MAH)

Fundamentals of expert Systems

Problem and limitation of expert systems Available Es methodologies are not straight forward and effective, even for application in generic categories. Some ES codes, especially for systems constructed with programming languages , is generally hard to understand

Knowledge is not readily available Expertise is hard to extract from humans The approach to each expert to situation assessment may be different, yet correct It is hard even for highly skilled professional to abstract good situational Assessments when he or she is under time pressure Users of expert systems have natural cognitive limits
5/5/12 ES work well only in a Lecture One(MAH)in some cases in a very narrow narrow domain,

Fundamentals of expert Systems

The vocabulary or jargon that experts use for expressing facts and relations is frequently limited and not understood by others
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Representative tasks ofDifficulties experts and their difficulties Interpretation: analysis of data to determine Data are often noisy and full
Task

their meaning

of errors Data value may be missing

Diagnosis: faultfinding in a system based onFaults can be intermittent Symptoms of the faults may interpretation of data

interfere Data contain errors or are inaccessible Diagnostic equipment may be unreliable

Monitoring: continuously interpretingWhen to flag often depends on context signals and flag for intervention

Signal expectation vary with the time/situation

Prediction: present

forecasting

from

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information Account for multiple possible features Contingencies for uncertainties Diversity of data, often contradicting data Lecture One(MAH)

past

andIntegration of incomplete

Types of Expert Systems

Fundamentals of expert Systems

Knowledge based systems can be built more easily and quickly than expert systems. What distinguishes expert systems from knowledge based systems is their the amount of expertise they have. Rule-based expert systems: are mostly commercial. The technology is relatively well developed( E.g. MYCIN) Frame based expert systems: Knowledge is represented as frames, representation of the OOP 5/5/12 Lecture One(MAH)

Types

Fundamentals of expert Systems

Ready made(turnkey) systems developed to satisfy a particular needs of a users(custom made) or they can be purchased as ready-made packages for any users. Ready made systems are similar to application packages. They are considered as less expensive than customized systems. But they are general in nature and their value may not important to the user. are not popular. Real-time expert systems: systems in which there is 5/5/12 strict time limit Lecture the systems response time, on One(MAH)