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Rosen 5.1
Finite Probability
An experiment is a procedure that yields one of a given set of possible outcomes. The sample space of the experiment is the set of possible outcomes. An event is a subset of the sample space. The probability of an event E, which is a subset of a finite sample space S of equally likely outcomes, is p(E) = |E|/|S|
Dice
What is the probability that when two dice are rolled, the sum of the numbers on the two dice is 7? By the product rule |S| = 6*6 = 36 |E| = 6, namely
(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)
Power Ball
Pick the value, in order, for 4 balls whose values each range between 1 and 20. P(E) = 1/(20*20*20*20) = 1/160,000
Poker
What is the probability that, if you are dealt five cards, you have a full house, three of one kind and two of another kind? (e.g., 3 Aces and 2 Kings) How many possible poker hands? C(52,5) = 2,598,960 How many ways to get a full house? Number of ways to pick two kinds in order: P(13,2) Number of ways to pick 3 out of 4 of the first kind: C(4,3) Number of ways to pick 2 out of 4 of the second kind: C(4,2)
Example Problems
What is the probability that a 5 card poker hand does not contain the queen of hearts. What is the probability that a 5 card poker hand contains at least one ace? What is the probability that a 5 card poker hand contains two pairs? (two of each of two different kinds and a fifth card of a third kind)? What is the probability that a five card poker hand contains a straight?
Example Problems
What is the probability that a 5 card poker hand does not contain the queen of hearts? Number of poker hands that do not contain the queen of hearts: C(51,5) Total number of poker hands: C(52,5)
51! C (51,5) 5!46! 51!5!47! 47 C (52,5) 52! 52!5!46! 52 5!47!
Example Problems
What is the probability that a 5 card poker hand contains at least one ace? Lets compute the probability of a hand containing no aces and subtract that from 1. What is the probability of a hand containing no aces?
48! C (48,5) 5!43! 48!5!47! 47 * 46 * 45 * 44 ~ 0.659 C (52,5) 52! 52!5!43! 52 * 51* 50 * 49 5!47!
Example Problems
What is the probability that a 5 card poker hand contains exactly two pairs? (two of each of two different kinds and a fifth card of a third kind)? First choose what the cards in each pair will be: C(13,2) = 78 ways to do this. Which two cards of each of the kinds of pairs are included: C(4,2) = 6 for each pair. How many choices for the fifth card (must be different or we have a full house): C(44,1) = 44 Using product rule: 78*6*6*44 ways to have 2 pairs p(2 pairs) = 78*6*6*44/C(52,5) = ~0.0475
Example Problems
What is the probability that a five card poker hand contains a straight? How many ways can we start a straight? C(10,1) = 10 (can start at A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10--assuming that the Ace can be either high or low) How many choices for each of the five cards? C(4,1) =4 for each card, 45 10*45/C(52,5) = ~0.00355 What if we dont count straight flushes? There are 10*4 = 40 straight flushes, so (10*45 - 40)/C(52,5)