7.

0 PROBABILTY 1

Created By: Mohd Said B Tegoh

KEY TERMS
o o o o o o o o o Probability Kebarangkalian Sample space Ruang Sampel Outcome Kesudahan Experiment Eksperimen Reasoning Penaakulan Event Peristiwa Element Unsur Trial Percubaan Occurrence - Berlakunya

7.1 Sample Space

7.1 a Possible Outcomes of an Experiment
o An experiment is a process or an action in making an observation to obtain the required results o An outcome of an experiment is a possible result that can be obtained from the experiment

7.1 Sample Space

Example
In a box, there are red, blue and green Marbles. A marble is drawn at random from the box. Determine whether each of the following outcomes is a possible outcome. (a) A red marble is drawn (b) A green marble is drawn (c) A yellow marble is drawn (d) A blue marble is drawn

7.1 Sample Space

Solution Example
In a box, there are red, blue and green marbles. A marble is drawn at random from the box. Determine whether each of the following outcomes is a possible outcome. (a) A red marble is drawn (a) Drawing a red marble is a possible outcome

7.1 Sample Space

In a box, there are red, blue and green marbles. A marble is drawn at random from the box. Determine whether each of the following outcomes is a possible outcome. (b) A green marble is drawn (b) Drawing a green marble is a possible outcome

Solution

Example

7.1 Sample Space

In a box, there are red, blue and green marbles. A marble is drawn at random from the box. Determine whether each of the following outcomes is a possible outcome. (a) A yellow marble is drawn (a) Drawing a yellow marble is a not possible outcome

Solution

Example

7.1 Sample Space

7.1 b Listing All Possible Outcomes

Solution Example

An experiment is carried out by tossing A coin. List all possible outcomes.

When a coin is tossed, the possible possible outcomes are heads and tales.
heads-the factorial face of the coin tales-the numerical face of the coin

7.1 Sample Space

In a box, there are red, blue and green marbles. A marble is drawn at random from the box. Determine whether each of the following outcomes is a possible outcome. (a) A blue marble is drawn (a) Drawing a blue marble is a possible outcome

Solution

Example

x x

Experiment : Roll a fair dice and toss a fair coin. List all the possible outcomes. Dice Coin
H T 1 2 3 4 5 H T H T H T H T H T

Outcomes
(1,H) (1,T) (2,H) (2,T) (3,H) (3,T) (4,H) (4,T) (5,H) (5,T) (6,H) (6,T)

Tree Diagram

7.1 Sample Space

7.1 c Determining the Sample Space
A sample space is the set of all the possible outcomes of an experiment

7.1 Sample Space

Example
A letter is chosen from the word HARMONY. Write the sample space, S, using set notation.

Solution
Sample space, S = { H, A, R, M, O, N, Y }

7.1 Sample Space

Example
A spinner contains the letters B, U, R and N. If James spins the spinner, list the sample space, S, using set notation

B N R U

Solution
Sample space, S = { B, U, R, N }

7.2 Events
7.2 a Elements with Satisfy Given Conditions
When a specific condition is given, we can list the elements of a sample space which satisfy the given condition

7.2 Events
Example
A two-digit number which is not more than 20 is chosen at random. List the elements of the sample space which satisfy each of the following conditions (a)A prime number is chosen (b) A perfect square is chosen

7.2 Events
A two-digit number which is not more than 20 is Chosen at random. List the elements of the sample space which satisfy each of the following conditions (a) A prime number is chosen

Solution
S= { 10, 11 12, 13 14, 15, 16, 17 18, 19 } 11, 13, 17, 19 (a) { 11, 13, 17, 19 }
Two- digit prime number s which are less than 20

7.2 Events
A two-digit number which is not more than 20 is Chosen at random. List the elements of the sample space which satisfy each of the following conditions (a) A perfect square is chosen

Solution
S= { 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 17, 18, 19 } 16, (b) { 16 }
Two- digit perfect square which is less than 20

7.2 Events
7.2 b Events for Sample Space
An event is a set of outcomes which satisfy a specific condition and it is a subset of the sample space.

7.2 Events
Example
A coin and die are thrown simultaneously. The events A and B are defined as follows. A = Event of obtaining heads from the coin and an even number from the die B = Event of obtaining a tails from the coin and a number less than 3 from the die (a) List sample space, S (b) List the elements of (i) the event A (ii) the event B

7.2 Events
Solution
(a) Construct a table as shown below to help us list the elements of the sample space
Single dice Coin Head (H) Tails (T)
(H,1) (T,1) (H,2) (T,2) (H,3) (T,3) (H,4) (T,4) (H,5) (T,5) (H,6) (T,6)

S = { (H,1), (H,2), (H,3), (H,4), (H,5), (H,6), (T,1), (T,2), (T,3), (T,4), (T,5), (T,6) }

7.2 Events
S = { (H,1), (H,2) (H,3), (H,4) (H,5), (H,6) (H,2), (H,4), (H,6), (T,1), (T,2), (T,3), (T,4), (T,5), (T,6) }

Solution

(b) List the elements of event A A = { (H,2), (H,4), (H,6) }

Set of outcome of event A: obtaining a heads from the coin and even number from the die

7.2 Events
S = { (H,1), (H,2), (H,3), (H,4), (H,5), (H,6), (T,1) (T,2) (T,3), (T,4), (T,5), (T,6) } (T,1), (T,2),

Solution

(b) List the elements of event B B = { (T,1), (T,2) }

Set of outcome of event B: obtaining a tails from the coin and a number less than 3 from the die

7.2 Events
7.2 c Determining whether an Event is Possible for a Sample Space
o If R and R S, then the event R is possible for the sample space, S. o If R = , then the event R is not possible for the sample space, S.

Example
Two dice are thrown simultaneously. The events T, Q and R are defined as follows. T = Event such that the sum of the numbers from the two dice is not more than 6 Q = Event such that the product of numbers from the two dice is a prime number R = Event such that the sum of the numbers from the two dice is more than 12 (a) List the sample space, S. (b) Determine whether each of the following events is possible for the sample space, S. (i) Event T (ii) Event Q (iii) Event R

(a) Construct a table as shown below to list the elements of the sample space

S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6), (3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6), (5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6,3)(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }

Two dice are thrown simultaneously. The events T, Q and R are defined as follows. T = Event such that the sum of the numbers from the two dice is not more than 6 (a) Determine whether each of the following events is possible for the sample space, S. (i) Event T

Solution
T = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (3,1), (3,2), (5,1) } o Since T and T S, then the event T is possible for the sample space, S.

Two dice are thrown simultaneously. The events T, Q and R are defined as follows. Q = Event such that the product of numbers from the two dice is a prime number (b) Determine whether each of the following events is possible for the sample space, S. (ii) Event Q

Solution
Q = { (1,2), (1,3), (1,5), (2,1), (3,1), (5,1) } o Since Q and Q S, then the event Q is possible for the sample space, S.

Two dice are thrown simultaneously. The events T, Q and R are defined as follows. R = Event such that the sum of the numbers from the two dice is more than 12 (b) Determine whether each of the following events is possible for the sample space, S. (iii) Event R

Solution
R= o Since R = , the event R is not possible for the sample space, S.

7.3 Probability of an Event

7.3 a Probability of an Event from Big Enough Number of Trials
The probability of an event A, P(A) is given by P(A) = Number of times of the occurrence of event A Number of trials where 0 P(A) 1

7.3 Probability of an Event

The probability of an event A, P(A) is given by P(A) = Number of outcomes in event A Number of outcomes in the sample space

= n(A) n(S) where 0 P(A) 1

7.3 Probability of an Event

o The probability of an event A, P(A) is given by P(A) = n(A) n(S) o If P(A) = 0, then the event A will certainly not occur o If P(A) = 1, then the event A is certainly occur

Example

Three cards, as shown in the above diagram, are put in into a box. A card is drawn at random from the box and their letter is recorded. Then the card is put back Into the box before another card is drawn at random. This process is repeated 240 times and the results are recorded in a table as shown below. Outcome Number of occurrences E 162 L 78

Based on the above table, calculate the probability that card with (a) the letter E is drawn (b) the letter L is drawn

Outcome Number of occurrences

E 162

L 78 240

Based on the above table, calculate the probability that card with (a) the letter E is drawn

Solution

Probability that a card with the letter E is drawn = P(E) Number of times the letter E is drawn

Number of trials

= 162 =
27 40

240

Outcome Number of occurrences

E 162

L 78 240

Based on the above table, calculate the probability that card with (a) the letter L is drawn

Solution

Probability that a card with the letter E is drawn = P(E) Number of times the letter L is drawn

Number of trials

= 78 =
13 40

240

Example

16

24

36

Mary puts the above six cards in a box. If Mary picks a card randomly from the box, find the probability of obtaining (a) an odd number (b) a prime number (c) a number less than 15 (d) a positive number

16

24

36

Solution

Sample space, S = { 1, 6, 9, 16, 24, 36 } n (S) = 6 (a) J = the event of picking an odd number J = { 1, 9 } n (J) = 2 P (J) = n (J) = 2 = 1 n (S) 6 3

Solution

Sample space, S = { 1, 6, 9, 16, 24, 36 } n (S) = 6

(b) K = the event of picking a prime number K={ } n (K) = 0 P (K) = n (K) = 0 = 0 n (S) 6
It means the event of picking a prime number will not happen

Solution

Sample space, S = { 1, 6, 9, 16, 24, 36 } n (S) = 6 (b) L = the event of picking a number less than 15 L = { 1, 6, 9 } n (L) = 3 P (L) = n (L) = 3= 1 n (S) 6 2

Solution

Sample space, S = { 1, 6, 9, 16, 24, 36 } n (S) = 6 (d) M = the event of picking a positive number M = { 1, 6, 9, 16, 24, 36 } n (M) = 6 P (M) = n (M) = 6 = 1 n (S) 6
It means the event of picking a positive number is sure to happen

Example
A factory produces light bulbs for the domestic market. The quality control will randomly pick 2500 bulbs daily to check on the quality. On the average, 75 units of them are faulty. Find the probability that any one bulb picked is faulty.

Solution
A = the event of picking a faulty bulb n (A) = 75 P (A) = n (A) = 75 = 3 n (S) 2500 100

7.3 Probability of an Event

7.3 b Calculating the Expected Number of Times an Event Will Occur If the probability of en event A and the number of trials are given, then the expected number of times the event will occur = P(A) x Number of trials

Solution Example

In the month of December, 5000 cars were sold. If the probability that a Proton cars were sold is 1 , calculate 5 the number of Proton cars that were sold in that month.

1 P(a Proton car is sold) = 5 1 Number of Proton cars sold = 5 Total number of cars sold 1 Number of Proton cars sold = 5 5000 1 Number of Proton cars sold = x 500 @ 5 ! 1000

7.3 Probability of an Event

7.3 c Predicting the Occurrence of an Outcome
An event that certainly will not occur An event with equal possibility of occurring An event that certainly will occur

0.1

0.5

0.9 1
An event with high possibility of occurring

An event which low possibility of occurring

0.1 0 0.5

0.9 1

Example

The diagram below shows a contest organised by a shopping centre

Rank the following home products from the most useful (1) to the least useful (4)

Bed

Dustbin

Example
(a) Calculate the total number of the possible arrangements. (b) Hence, state the probability that an entry will win. (c) Madam Fong would like to try her luck in this contest by sending two entries with different arrangements. Has she got a big chance of winning? Explain why. (d) Puan Zaitun would also like to try her luck in this contest by sending 20 entries with difference arrangements. Has she got a big chance of winning? Explain why?

(a) Calculate the total number of the possible arrangements.

Solution
Let ; 1 - Bed, 2 Table lamp, 3 Electric kettle, 4 - Dustbin The possible arrangements are as follow

1234 2134 3124 4123

1243 2143 3142 4132

1324 2314 3214 4213

1342 2341 3241 4231

1423 2413 3412 4312

1432 2431 3421 4321

Hence, the total number of the possible arrangements is 24

The total number of the possible arrangements is 24 (b) Hence, state the probability that an entry will win.

Solution
1 The probability that an entry will win = 24

(c) Madam Fong would like to try her luck in this contest by sending two entries with different arrangements. Has she got a big chance of winning? Explain why.

Solution
Let F = Event that Madam Fong will win by sending 2 entries with different arrangements

2 P (F) = 24 1 = 12
Since, the value of P(F) below 1 and quite close to 0, 2 the chance of Madam Chong winning is very small.

(d) Puan Zaitun would also like to try her luck in this contest by sending 20 entries with difference arrangements. Has she got a big chance of winning? Explain why?

Solution
Let Z = Event that Puan Zaitun will win by sending 20 entries with different arrangements P (F) = =

20 24 5 6

Since, the value of P(Z) is way above 1 and quite close to 1, 2 the chance of Puan Zaitun winning is great.

7.3 Probability of an Event

7.3 d Solving Problems

Example
A number is chosen at random from a set of positive integers from 10 to 20 (inclusive of 10 and 20). Calculate the probability that a prime number is chosen.

A number is chosen at random from a set of positive integers from 10 to 20 (inclusive of 10 and 20). Calculate the probability that a prime number is chosen.

Solution
Let R = Event that a prime number is chosen S = Sample space S = { 10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20 } R = { 11,13,17,19 }

n( R ) 4 P @ ( R) ! n(S ) ! 11

7.3 Probability of an Event

7.3 d Solving Problems

Example
Given that the probability of choosing a man at random from a group of tourists is 4 .
11

If there are 28 women in the group, find the total number of tourists in the group.

Given that the probability of choosing a man at random from a group of tourists is 4 .
11

If there are 28 women in the group, find the total number of tourists in the group.

Solution
y = number of man group y + 28 = number of tourists

y 4 ! y  28 11

11 y ! 4 y  112 7 y ! 112 y ! 16
Number of tourists = 16 + 28 = 44

7.3 Probability of an Event

7.3 d Solving Problems

Example
In a group of 80 students, 50 are boys. A further 10 girls then join the group. If the student is chosen at random from the group, calculate the probability that the student is a girl.

In a group of 80 students, 50 are boys. A further 10 girls then join the group. If the student is chosen at random from the group, calculate the probability that the student is a girl.

Solution
Let B = Event that a boy is chosen G = Event that girl is chosen S = Sample space n(S) = 80 + 10 = 90 n(S) = 50 n(G) = ( 80 50 ) + 10 = 40

n (G ) P (G ) ! n( S ) 40 4 ! ! 90 9