FUTURE OF DATABASES

Javeed A Hussain

A Glimpse Into the Future of Database Management

We must begin by seeing how the constant changes in technology used for databases have effected database management over the past six decades.

Once we see the history (highlights) in its correct perspective, we can understand the evolution of Oracle database systems into their current state.

A Brief of Past, Present & Future

In the 1960s, IBM dominated the server market with giant mainframe servers that cost millions of dollars. 1960s Only the largest of corporations could afford their own data processing center, and all small- to mid-sized companies had to rent CPU cycles from a data center in order to automate their business processes. Monolithic servers reappear, and Oracle shops undertake a massive server consolidation. By 2008, servers with 256 processors run hundreds of Oracle instances. Disk becomes obsolete, and all Oracle database are solid-state. Hardware costs fall so much that 70 percent of the IT budget is spent on programmers and DBAs.

2000-2008

2010s

The Oracle professionals of the year 2020 have far different challenges than their ancestors way back in 2005.
Large mainframe servers replaced the minicomputers of the early 21st century PCs are replaced by IAs (Internet Appliances) High-speed network bandwidth allows instant content delivery and server-to-server communications All database systems are solid-state Databases become three-dimensional, allowing for temporal data presentation

It s really important to note that all of these changes were the direct reaction to advances in hardware technology.

What were the major changes in hardware over the past few years
2008 The first database server with more than 1,000 CPUs is introduced, enabling massive IT server consolidation. The first 128-bit processors are introduced. Hardware prices fall so much that they become negligible, and the bulk of the IT budget goe s to human costs. Gallium Arsenide replaces silicon for RAM chips, increasing access speed into picoseconds. Worldwide high-speed satellite becomes the backbone of the Internet. Optical eye readers can identify your retina signature, and a quick glance is all that is required for positive identification.

2010 2014

2015

2018 2020

The increasing availability of computing resources led to worldwide infrastructure regulations.

2009 The United Nations passes the Worldwide Internet Certification Act (WICA), requiring positive identification for Internet access. The SQL-09 committee simplifies data query syntax, allowing natural language database communication. Internic implements WICA and VIP, reducing spam and cybercrime by 95 percent worldwide. Internet bandwidth increase to allow high-speed communications between any server. Advertising becomes active, and retinal imaging allows for instant identification and customizing of marketing messages. Walk down the street and billboards target their content to the needs of those viewing it at that moment.

2010

2011

2013

2020

Oracle Corporation is expected to capture more then 90% of the database market by 2020.
2008 Oracle 14m provides inter-instance sharing of RAM resources. All Oracle instances become self-managing. Oracle 16ss introduces solid-state, non-disk database management. Oracle s Larry Elision finances the Worldwide Internet Identification Database, requiring non-anonymous access and reducing cybercrime. Ellison receives the Nobel Peace Prize for his humanitarian efforts. Oracle 17-3d introduces the time dimension to database management, allowing three-dimensional data representation. Oracle starts manufacturing IAs for $50 each, replacing PCs and making the Internet available everywhere in the world. Ellison becomes the world s first trillionaire.

2010 2011

2016

2018

Hardware advances by 2020

Disk Storage Changes

Disk storage costs fall 10x every year. Storage media is out dated every 25 years. Cost benefit : You can buy 100 GB disks for $10, and 100 GB of RAM for $100.

RAM Storage Changes

The introduction of Quantum-state Gallium Arsenide RAM in 2009 is the largest breakthrough in RAM in more then 40 years. Before 2009, By the end of 2009, RAM speed remained constant at about 20 microseconds (millionths of a second), After 2009, the speed of RAM will increased to picoseconds (billionths of a second) $100 for 100 GB RAM, with access time 600,000 much more faster then 20th century RAM. Cost benefit : A terabyte of RAM will costs less than $200 in 2020

Processor Changes
2005-2009 : RAM had to be physically localized near the CPU to keep the processors running at full capacity. After 2009 the speed of RAM will increase to piseconds (billionsths of second). CPUs continue to increase speed by four times as much every three years and cut cost in half. I/O bandwidth capacity doubles every ten years: 8 bit 1970s 16 bit 1980s 32 bit 1990s 64 bit 2000s 128 bit 2010s 256 bit 2020s Super-fast processors sounded the death knell for the age of small computers, and server blades (and Oracle10g Grid computing) will be replaced by large, monolithic servers. Cost benefit : 4-Way SMP porcessor will cost less than $300 by 2020.

So far we have seen the future predictions and few major changes in Oracle database technology and demonstrated how hardware advances preceded and facilitated the change to Oracle..

What will be the duties of Oracle DBAs by 2020.

2015 : Many of the Oracle DBA functions led to the Oracle professional accepting responsibility for a whole new set of duties : Data Modeling and Oracle database desing. Data interface protocols. Managing data security . Managing development projects . Predicting future oracle trends for hardware usage and user load.

2020 : DBA will spend less time on installing and maintaing multiple copies of Oracle. Applying patches to Oracle software will be history, all tuning is fully automated and hundreds of Oracle instances all resides within a single company side server. All software to be accessed from a single master location (virtual space). Software vendors can instantly transmit patches and upgardes without service interruption. Best of all for the vendor, software piracy is completely eliminated.

Oracles Inter-Instance Database Inter-

Oracle abondoned grid comuutingin favor of inter-instance sharing of RAM resources. Real Application Clusters (RAC) and Automatic Memory Management (AMM) is to create a new way for hundreds of Oracle instances to share RAM resources between instances. Cost benefit : RAM costs falling below $1,000 per Terabyte, multi-gigabyte data caches became commonplace.

SolidSolid-State Oracle Database

The idea of caching was gone forever, and everything was available with nanosecond access speeds. With this greatly simplified architecture. Oracle was able to reduce the number of background processes required to manage Oracle and exploit the new solid-state disks.

Inside Oracle 2020

The SQL-09 standard also simplefied data access for relational databases.. The SQL-09 standard made it eay to add artifical intelligent langauag pre-processors to natural language interfaces to oracle data. Oracles cost-based SQL optimizer is will be100% effective and dynamic sampling ensures that the execution plan is optimal for every query. Oracle software is dynamically accessed over the Web and a single copy of Oracle executables is accessed from the main Oracle software server in Redwood Shores. Several hundred master copies of Oracle exist on the world wide web server applying patches is a simple matter of re-directing your Oracle instance to pull the executables from another master copy of Oracle Oracle software to be instantly available by any Internet-enabled appliance.

Oracle 3d Adds a New Dimension

With all Oracle database running in solid-state memory, the introduction of the new 32-state Gallium Arsenide chips with picosecond access speeds shifted the database bottleneck to the network.

2016 :

Oracle 17-3d is designed to add the management.

temporal dimension to database

Adding the third dimension of time, Oracle was able to exploit the ancient concept of their Flashback product to allow any Oracle database to be viewed as a dynamic object with the changes to the database available in real-time. 2020 : All traditional wiring has been replaced by fiber optics and all system software is delivered over the web.

Message...

While its always impossible to accurately predict the future, we can always take clues from the advances in hardware, knowing that Oracle databases will step up to utilize the new hardware advances within their database products and tools.

Thank Q jahdublin@gmail.com http://sites.google.com/site/jsaconsultingservices/