Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
1/27/2012 Dhruva
ROAD MAP
Forex Markets: Nature and working of forex markets. Understanding exchange rates, quotations and trading. Financial instruments in the international markets - Spots, forwards, futures and options. Foreign exchange markets and money markets Exposure and Risk: The concepts of exposure and risk - Foreign exchange risk, transactions exposure and translation exposure, economic exposure and competitive exposure. The concept of hedging. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Determination Theories: Interest rate parity and covered interest arbitrage, equilibrium in the exchange and money markets, purchasing power parity, Fisher's effect and international Fisher's effect. Evolution of International Financial Management: Emergence of Multinational companies. The finance functions in MNCs. Dynamics of international markets and financial instruments International Investment: Evaluating international cash flows, project appraisal and currency risk evaluation, cost of capital and capital budgeting decision, international investment strategies, active and passive, optimal international portfolios. International Financing: Rising capital in international markets. Sources of long-term finance for MNCs - Foreign bonds and Euro bonds, international bond markets. Rising finance in the international capital markets - ADRs and GDRs. Working capital financing in MNCs.
1/27/2012
Authorized Persons
Banks FI Money Changers
Regulatory Framework
FEMA RBI Government Departments
MOF, MOC etc
Currency Swaps
Simultaneous buy & sell of the currency with different maturity dates Receiving the premium & paying the premium
1/27/2012
contd
Concept of Exchange rate US$=Rs48.9000/50 ; US$= Euro0.6000/0.6025 Base Currency & Uniform currency code (swift) Two Way Quotes Bid & Ask rates Spread Level quotes Direct quote Country specific one unit of FC= x units of domestic currency us$=rs50.9000/50direct quote in India ;CHF= $0.6876/86 in US Indirect Quote in India Rs100=US$1.9646/50 Unit of domestic currency is expressed in FC units Rs100=US$2.0202/05 Quotations in European terms/American terms In European terms base currency is US$. In American terms base currency is FC and the other currency is US$ Jpy120.50/US$ ;Rs50.22/US$ European terms ; S$1.6050/GBP; USD1.4500/EUR American Terms
1/27/2012 Dhruva
C
Money Changers
1/27/2012 Dhruva
Branch
Global Markets
Front Office
Domestic Markets
Mid Office
Back Office
1/27/2012 Dhruva
Back office
export imports
Merchant
Market rate
Branch
Front Office
Rate is given
Not OK reject
1/27/2012 Dhruva
1/27/2012 Dhruva
10
Compute the exchange rates 1. US$/Rs:51.7500/00 Rs/Yen:.2.11/2.15 Find US$/Yen : 2. US$/Rs:Rs52.4550/75 100Yen= Rs.47.6875/00 Find Rs/Yen 3. US$/CHF:1.5675/79 CHF/GBP:0.8810/15 Find US$/GBP
1/27/2012
11
13 March 2009
USD USDGBP EUR JPY GBP EUR 1.2886 0.9234 xxx 126.6320 Jpy 0.01018 0.00729 0.00790 xxx xx 1.3956 0.7165 xx 0.7760 1.0830 98.2750 137.1525
1/27/2012
12
Forward Rates
Any Day after Spot Factors Influence Forward Rates
Supply and Demand for Currency Interest Rate Differential Fundamentals of the Economy Balance of Payments Political Issues Market Perception
1/27/2012 Dhruva
13
1/27/2012
15
1/27/2012 Dhruva
16
1/27/2012
17
3.Compute forward rates USD/CHF spot: 1.7855/59 USD/CHF one month forward: 1.6825/29 Mid rate spot :1.7857 Mid rate fwd : 1.7682 Forward points (1.76821.7857):175pips per month (discount) Annualized (.0175x12x100)/1.7857=11.76%( discount) 4. Spot USD/INR:51.2500/2650
18
Short date contracts Mechanics of Forwards In Position Sheet Indian Scenario Forward Purchase Forward Sale Mathematics of Forwards Delivery on due date /Early Delivery/Cancellation and Roll Over
1/27/2012 Dhruva
19
Dealers Terminology
Buy/ Sell Mine/Yours Long/Short Square Position Cover Operation Receive/ Pay Overnight Limits/Day Light Limits/ Intra Day Limits Gap Limits-IGL/AGL Stop Loss Limits Revaluation Profit
1/27/2012 Dhruva
20
Outright forwards
Either purchase or sale will be booked . This forward can be option forward or fixed forward
1/27/2012 Dhruva
21
1/27/2012 Dhruva
22
Quote at NY : =$1.5178/1.5178 Buy euro at NY paying 1.5174 dollars and sell at Frankfurt and get 1.5178 dollars and make money.
1/27/2012 Dhruva
23
Concept of boundaries
Take two pairs of currencies US$/CHF: 1.5525/35
Implied rates of CHF/US$:0.6437/0.6441
CHF/Rs:34.5025/75
Implied rates of Rs100/CHF:2.8979/83
What should be my quote for US$/Rs Method 1:1.5525x34.5025; 1.5535x34.50 =53.5650;53. 5950
bid bid
1/27/2012
ask ask
24
1/27/2012 Dhruva
25
Application of Swap
Cover the Merchant Forward position Speculation on Interest rate Movements Forex & Money market arbitration
1/27/2012
26
Application of swaps
1/27/2012
27
1/27/2012 Dhruva
28
1/27/2012
29
1/27/2012 Dhruva
30
1/27/2012
31
1/27/2012
32
Concepts on Futures
Initial Margin: Minimize margin is to be deposited by the trader with the exchange. Exchange will stipulate the margin requirements. Initial margin is to be paid by both buyer and seller. Mark to market: A futures account is marked to market daily. Margin Call :If the margin drops below the margin maintenance requirement established by the exchange listing the futures, a margin call will be issued to bring the account back up to the required level. Open Interest : Cumulative Open positions on buy & sell side Margin-equity ratio: Ratio of the amount of their trading capital that is being held as margin at any particular time. Return on margin (ROM): This performance indicator of the traders efficiency. ROM is calculated (realized return) / (initial margin). The Annualized ROM is equal to (ROM+1)(year/trade duration
1/27/2012 Dhruva
33
1/27/2012
34
Settlement of Futures
Settlement of futures contract is of two types. Physical delivery The futures contract will specify of the underlying asset of the contract (Number of equity shares in one unit of stock future, number of barrels in one unit if crude oil future, or so many grams of gold in one unit of gold future. The exchange will seee through the transaction. Cash settlement: The cash payment is made based on the underlying reference mark to market price of the underlying asset on the settlement date Pricing: Basis : The difference between the cash price &futures price is Basis Contango : The situation where the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than the spot price, or where a far future delivery price is higher than a nearer future delivery, is known as contango. This is called normal market. Backwardation: If the price of a commodity for future delivery is lower than the spot price, or where a far future delivery price is lower than a nearer future delivery, is known as backwardation.
1/27/2012 Dhruva 35
1/27/2012 Dhruva
36
Price Fixing Products are two-sided obligations. Both the parties to the product have to perform. The buyer and seller of the Price Fixing Product are obligated to deliver assets or cash flows at the predetermined rate. Price insurance products are one-sided obligations. A Price Insurance Product gives the owner the right, but not the obligation to exchange value at a predetermined rate at a future date Price Insurance Products thus provide price insurance to the owner of the product against adverse movements in the price of the underlying variable or asset
1/27/2012 Dhruva
37
A Price Insurance Product that protects the purchase price is a Call Option A Price Insurance Product that protects the selling price is a Put Option
1/27/2012 Dhruva
38
Making money(?) with Futures :scrip Infosys lot size 100 ;expiry date :30 November; margin 10% bought the futures one lot. Figures in the bracket indicate spot price Examples of Contango & Backwardation
Date Open. price 1520 (1500) 1540 (1510) 1570 (1540) 1600 (1580) high low Closing price 1580 1570 1670 1600 +900 Initial Margin 15200 Margi n call +600 Profit /loss +6000 -1000 +10000 -7000
39
1/27/2012
39
Derivatives -Options
Options are financial instruments that convey the right, but not the obligation, to engage in a future transaction on some underlying asset at specific price Options are two types
Call option : Buying a call option provides the right to buy a specified quantity of a security at a set strike price at some time on or before expiration Put Option: Buying a put option provides the right to sell. Upon the option holder's choice to exercise the option, the party who sold option (or wrote) must fulfill the terms of the contract.
1/27/2012
40
Features of Options
The quantity of the underlying asset is specified. The strike price/ the exercise price is the agreed price of the option contract. Option buyer pays premium to the option writer. Major models of options
European Option - an option that can be exercised only on expiration. American Option - an option that may be exercised on any trading day on or before expiration. Bermudan option - an option that may be exercised only on specified dates on or before expiration. Barrier option - any option with the general characteristic that the underlying security's price must reach some trigger level before the exercise can occur.
As per the settlement terms the writer must deliver the actual asset on exercise, or may simply tender the 1/27/2012 41 equivalent cash amount
Option Terminology
Option Premium
- Price paid by the buyer to acquire the right
Expiration Date
- Last date for exercising the option
Exercise Date
- Date on which the option is actually exercised
1/27/2012 42
Option Terminology
Call Option
- Option to buy
Put Option
- Option to sell
Option Buyer
- has the right but not the obligation
Option Writer/Seller
1/27/2012
43
Call Option
Right to BUY a specified underlying at a set price on or before an expiration date. The holder of a RIL March 900 call option has the right to buy (or go long) a RIL share at a price of 900 anytime between purchase and
1/27/2012 44
expiration.
Put Option
Right to SELL a specified underlying at a set price on or before an expiration date. The holder of a RIL March 925 put option has the right to sell (or go short) a RIL share at a price of 925 1/27/2012 45 anytime between purchase and
Call Buyer
- Pays premium - Has right to exercise resulting in a long position in the underlying - Time works against buyer
Call Seller
- Collects premium - Has obligation if assigned resulting in a short position in the underlying - Time works in favor of seller
1/27/2012
46
Put Buyer
- Pays premium - Has right to exercise resulting in a short position in the underlying - Time works against buyer
Put Seller
- Collects premium - Has obligation if assigned resulting in a long position in the underlying - Time works in favor of seller
1/27/2012 47
Long Option
The Right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell a specified underlying at a set price on or before an expiration date. Long Call Options are Bullish oriented positions - they become more valuable as the underlying market price increases. Long Put Options are Bearish oriented positions - they become more valuable as the underlying market price decreases.
1/27/2012
48
Short Option
The obligation (if assigned) to BUY (short put option), or SELL (short call option) a specified underlying at a set price on or before an expiration date.
1/27/2012
49
Option Premium
The market price of an option negotiated between buyer and seller Option Premium = Intrinsic Value + Time Value Option Premium >= 0 Intrinsic Value >= 0 Time Value >= 0
1/27/2012
51
Intrinsic Value
Difference between Exercise Price and Spot Price Cannot be negative
1/27/2012
52
Option Strategies
Call Option Pay off Profile for a Buyer .Strike Price CHF is $ 0.6700 Premium 1.98cents or $0.0198 Spot prices for 9 working days Pay Off Profile .6000 loss 0.0198 .6500 loss 0.0198 .6600 0.0198 .6700 0.0198 .6800 0.0098 .6898 0.0000 .6900 gain 0.0002 1/27/2012 .6958 gain 0.0060 .7098 gain 0.0200 Put Option payoff for a buyer Strike price Put option Sterling /$ $1.7800 premium paid $ 0.0500 Spot prices for 9 working days Pay Off Profile
$1.6900 gain 0.0400 $1.6925 gain 0.0375 $1.7000 gain 0.0.0300 $1.17100 gain 0.0200 $1.73000 gain 0.0000 $1.7400 loss 0.0100
55
Settlement Type
Settled in cash
- on exercise results in flow of cash stream depending on the settlement price
Settled in delivery
- on exercise results in delivery / position
1/27/2012
of the underlying
56
Settlement Of Options
Daily Premium Buyer pays the premium and seller receives the premium. The premium payable and the premium receivable are netted to compute the net premium payable or receivable for each client for each option contract. Exercise Process Index options are European style and are only subject to automatic exercise on the expiration day only. Options on securities are American style and can be exercised any time during the tenure of the option. Automatic exercise on exercise day means that all inthe money options would be exercised by Exchange on the 57 1/27/2012 expiration day.
The exercise settlement price is the closing price of the underlying (index or security) on the exercise day (for interim) or the expiry day of the relevant option contract (final exercise) The exercise settlement value is the difference between the strike price and the final settlement price of the relevant option contract. Call options - exercise settlement value receivable by a buyer is the difference of final settlement price and the strike price. Call = Closing price of the security - Strike price Put options - exercise settlement value receivable by a buyer is difference between strike price and final settlement price for each unit of the underlying 1/27/2012 Put = Strike price - Closing price of the security 58
Option Valuation
As at maturity
- Call Option Pc = MAX (0, Sm - K) - Put Option Pp = MAX (0, K - Sm) Pc = Value of call option Pp = Value of put option Sm = Spot price of asset at maturity 1/27/2012 K = Strike price of option
59
Premium p
K
Put Buyer
K-p
1/27/2012
60
profit
strike price
Premium c
k+c loss
1/27/2012
61
Spread Strategies Option Strategy involves simultaneous buy and sell of two different option contracts Strategy facilitates to realize profit if the movement of price is in a particular direction and limit the loss if it does not move in that expected direction Bullish Call Spread 1/27/2012 62
Sell the Call with higher strike price and
Buying a Call & Put with identical strike prices and maturity dates
If the depreciation is there money is made on Put If appreciation is there money is made on Call Some times moderate loss will be there Strangle
Buying call and Put at different prices 1/27/2012 with same maturity dates
63
Money Market
The money market can be defined as a market for short-term money and financial assets that are near substitutes for money. It is basically concerned with the issue and trading of securities or quasi-money instruments with short term maturities. The Instruments traded in the money-market are Call/Notice Money, Treasury Bills, Certificates of Deposits (CDs), Commercial Paper (CPs), Bills of Exchange and other such instruments of short-term maturities (i.e. not exceeding 1 year with regard to the original maturity). There are also money market mutual funds. 1/27/2012 64 Characteristics of Money Market 64 Dhruva It is not a single market but a collection of markets for various
The money market has two components - the organized and the unorganized. The organized market is dominated by commercial banks. The core of the money market is the inter-bank call money market whereby short-term money borrowing/lending is effected to manage temporary liquidity mismatches. The Central bank of the Country occupies a strategic position of managing market liquidity through open market operations of government securities, access to its accommodation, cost (interest rates), availability of credit and other monetary management tools. Unorganized money market involves private lending. Call/Notice Money :Call money usually serves the role 66 of 1/27/2012 66 Dhruva equilibrating the short-term liquidity position of banks. Banks borrow in this money market to fill the gaps or temporary
Money Markets
Treasury Bills
contd
Short term (up to one year) borrowing instruments of the union government. It is an IOU of the Government. It is commonly referred to as T Bills of tenor less than 365 days. It is a promise by the Government to pay a stated sum of money after expiry of the stated period from the date of issue (14/91/182/364 days i.e. less than one year). They are issued at a discount to the face value, and on maturity the face value is paid to the holder.
Certificate of Deposits
CDs are short-term borrowings in the form of Usance Promissory Notes having a maturity of not less than 15 days up to a maximum of one year. CD is subject to payment of Stamp Duty under Indian Stamp Act, 1899 (Central Act). Similar conditions are there in other countries also. They are like bank term deposits accounts. Unlike traditional time deposits these are freely negotiable instruments and are often referred to as Negotiable Certificate of Deposits .CDs are short-term borrowings in the form of Usance Promissory Notes having a maturity of not less than 15 days up to a maximum of one year. They are like bank term deposits accounts. Unlike traditional time deposits these are freely negotiable instruments and are often referred to as Negotiable Certificate of Deposits.
1/27/2012 68 Dhruva
68
Commercial paper
Commercial Paper
Commercial paper is a money market security issued by large banks and corporations. It is generally used to finance short-term investments/working capital to purchase inventory or to manage other working capital requirements. Commercial paper maturities do not exceed nine months and proceeds typically are used only for current transactions, the notes are exempt from registration as securities with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
Features of CP
CP is a note in evidence of the debt obligation of the issuer. On issuing commercial paper the debt obligation is transformed into an instrument. CPs are issued subject to minimum of Rs 5 lakhs and in the multiples of Rs. 5 Lac thereafter with a maturity of 15 days to 1 year. In US market maximum tenor is 270 days, beyond this period the issuer has to follow the guide lines of SEC It is freely negotiable by endorsement and delivery. Price of CP is computed through a formula : Issue price of CP= F/{1+ (I*N)/100*365} Example :Face value Rs.100.Effective rate 10% for 90days. Issue price is =100/ {1+ (.1*90/36500)=Rs97.5396.Issuer will incur the expenses on: Stamp duty, brokerage, IPA fees, rating agency fees, redemption fees payable to banks. Underwriters may be there for the CP issue. Commercial 1/27/2012 is always cheaper than using a bank line of credit. 69 paper
69 Dhruva
T-Bills
Treasury Bills
Treasury bills are issued by Central Government Securities against their short term borrowing requirements with maturities ranging between 14 to 364 days. T-Bills are issued at a discount-to-face value. For example a Treasury bill of Rs. 100.00 face value issued for Rs. 91.50 gets redeemed at the end of it's tenure at Rs. 100.00. 91 days T-Bills are auctioned under uniform price auction method where as 364 days TBills are auctioned on the basis of multiple price auction method. Banks, Primary Dealers, State Governments, Provident Funds, Financial Institutions, Insurance Companies, NBFCs, FIIs (as per prescribed norms), NRIs & OCBs can invest in T-Bills.
1/27/2012 70 Dhruva 70
MM instruments
Repo /Reverse Repos
A Repo deal is one where eligible parties enter into a contract with another to borrow money at a pre-determined rate against the collateral of eligible security for a specified period of time. The legal title of the security does change. The motive of the deal is to fund a position. Though the mechanics essentially remain the same and the contract virtually remains the same, in case of a reverse Repo deal the underlying motive of the deal is to meet the security / instrument specific needs or to lend the money. Indian Repo Market is governed by Reserve Bank of India. At present Repo is permitted between 64 players against Central & State Government Securities (including T-Bills) only at 1/27/2012 72 Mumbai. 72 Dhruva
73
Characteristics of MNCs
It operates in many countries at different level of economic development Its local subsidiaries are managed by nationals It maintains complete industrial organization including research & development facilities in several countries 1/27/2012 It has multinational central
74
Country of Origin?????
Coca Cola Company Dell Ford Google Hitachi HSBC LG Nestle Samsung Sony Virgin Vodafone 1/27/2012 Nokia
75
Country of Origin
Coca Cola Dell Ford Google Hitachi HSBC LG Nestle Samsung Sony Virgin Vodafone 1/27/2012 Nokia USA USA USA USA Japan UK South Korea Switzerland South Korea Japan UK UK Finland
76
Types of MNCs
MNCs are of 5 organizational types 1. Vertically integrated MNC: produces goods and services at different stages of the production process ; the outputs of some affiliates serve as inputs to other affiliates of the MNC ;avoid uncertainty and reduce transaction costs; limit competition.. Example: in petroleum, they are often involved in the extraction and distributive stages i.e.., owning many petrol stations. 2. Horizontally integrated MNC: extends its operations abroad by producing the same product or product line in its affiliates in different countries; has the same sort of plant in many countries. Defend and increase their market shares; get behind external barriers imposed by national governments Example: Union Carbide which has many chemical subsidiaries 1/27/2012 around the globe.
12/13/2008 Dhruva 77
77
4.
5.
Example: automobile industry, telecommunications equipment and aircraft Strategic alliances: are partnerships between separate, sometimes competing companies
they are drawn together because each needs the complementary technology, skills or facilities of the other; but the scope of the relationship is strictly defined, leaving the companies free to compete outside the relationship
1/27/2012 12/13/2008 Dhruva 78
78
Changes in technology and organizational sophistication created the possibility of expansion new communications technologies, cheaper and more reliable transportation networks. Government policies that actively encourage multinational expansion = elimination of restraints on capital flows, the reduction of tariffs. The product cycle theory: every technology product evolves through 3 phases in its life history
the introductory or innovative phase: production is located in most advanced industrial country(ies) the maturing or process-development phase: production shifts to other advanced countries the standardized or mature phase: production shifts to LDCs, whose comparative advantage is their lower wages rates. From 1/27/2012 79 these export platforms either the product itself or component 12/13/2008 Dhruva parts are shipped toward markets.
79
80
to exploit the monopoly power they possess through such factors as unique products, marketing expertise, control of technology and managerial skills, or access to capital. 1/27/2012 80
12/13/2008 Dhruva
Obsolescing bargain theory contends that a firm invested in a host country starts with a good bargaining position withthe host countrys government because of firm-specific advantages (superior technology); later on the bargaining leverage shifts towards the host state because the MNC commits itself to immobile resources.
81
81
Marxists view that MNCs as predatory monopolists that overcharge for their goods and services, limit the flow of technology, and create dependency relationships with host countries in the Third World as having a negative impact on home countries by exporting jobs and imposing downward pressures on labor and on environmental standards
Dhruva
82
1/27/2012 12/13/2008
82
83
83
86
What the MNCs want the most is political stability rather than a particular form of government. MNCs cultural impact on LDCs : The presence of MNCs is characterized as constituting a form of cultural imperialism or Coca-Cola-ization of the society, through which the developing country loses control over its culture and its 1/27/2012 development= it receives partial support 86 social
12/13/2008 Dhruva
87
Controller Functions External reporting Accounting Budget Controls Tax planning Tax management MIS Accounts Receivable 87
Dhruva
88
89
89
contd
90
Degree of Risk It is dependent on the information available with the Entity facing Risk This information helps the entity to assess the expected value and probability of the event The interpretation of the available information is crucial to the entity Same information can be interpreted by different entities differently. Role of Risk Manager in International Financial Management Risk Manager Has to identify the Risk 1/27/2012 identify the remedial measures available for Managing 90 Has to the Risk 12/13/2008 Dhruva Has to measure the cost of managing the Risk
91
91
92
92
Strategic Risks
Competition Customer Changes Industry Changes Customer Demand
Internally Driven
Accounting Controls Information System Recruitment Supply Chain Regulations Culture Board Composition
Some risks can have both external and internal drivers. Hence, those risks overlap in two areas. To combat these risks, Risk Management has become a core business process.
Products & Services Public Access Employees Properties Contracts Natural Events Supplies Environment
Operational Risks
Hazard Risks
93
12/13/2008
Dhruva
Scenario Analysis
HAZOP
(Hazard & operability Studies)
Data Analysis
Cluster Analysis
Asset Management
FMEA
(Failure Mode & Effect Analysis)
94
12/13/2008
Dhruva
External
Internal
SocioEconomic
Structure
Processes
Culture
Companies operate in a dynamic business environment which forces them to adopt risk management measures. The business environment is both external and internal to a company and an adverse change in any of the above mentioned constituents can increase the risk levels for the company.
95
12/13/2008
Dhruva
Risk Assessment
Risk Analysis Risk Identification Risk Description Risk Estimation
Data Analysis
Risk Evaluation
Risk Reporting Threats and Opportunities Decision
Business Research
Risk Treatment
Monitoring
96
12/13/2008
Dhruva
97
97
98
CONTD
Risk Retention Risk is retained when nothing can be done to avoid , reduce or transfer it Risk Sharing This a combination of Risk retention & risk transfer
99
RISKS CAN BE MINIMISED BUT CAN NOT BE 1/27/2012 COMPLETELY 12/13/2008 ERASED Dhruva
99