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Also called Waiting Line Theory. Owes its development to AK Erlang efforts to analyse telephone traffic congestion with the aim of satisfying the randomly arising demand for the services of Copenhagen telephone system in 1909. The theory is applicable to situations where:a) Customers arrive; at b) Some service stations; for c) Some service. d) Wait (occasionally not); then e) Leave the system after getting the service.
Introduction
Examples of such arrival/ departure problems:
(a) Customers waiting to deposit electricity bills (b) Machines waiting to be repaired (c) Aircraft waiting to land at an airport (d) Patients in a hospital who need treatment
Introduction
Why do waiting lines develop? Because service is not rendered immediately on arrival of customer at the service facility. Why? Lack of adequate service facility Inefficiency of the existing facility
Therefore, to meet service demand (a) Increase service capacity; and /or (b) Raise capacity of existing capacity/facility, if possible. It is possible to build capacity to such high level that can always meet peak demand with no queues. This would become uneconomical after a stage because capacity will remain idle to varying degrees when there are no or very few customers.
Introduction
Managers/ Management job is to balance. Inefficient/poor service excessive waiting cost in terms of:-
(a) Customer frustration (b) Loss of goodwill in the long run (c) Direct cost of idle employees (e.g. employees waiting at the store for collection of tools). Conversely too high a service level high set-up cost idle time
for service stations. Goal of queuing modelling between (a) Cost of providing service (b) Cost associated with wait achievement of economic balance
To solve a queuing problem, service facility must be manipulated so that an optimum balance is obtained between the cost of waiting time and the cost of idle time. Cost of waiting customers includes:(a) Indirect cost of lost business people may go elsewhere, buy lesser than intended, do not come again in future (b) Direct cost of idle equipment and people (i) Cost of truck drivers and equipment to be loaded/unloaded
(ii) Cost of ship anchored in high seas waiting to enter the dockyard (iii) Cost of operating an airplane kept circling overhead waiting for clearance to land
Increased Service
Increased Service
Population
Queue
Service System
Customers leave
Arrival Process
1. Arrival Process.
(a) According to source (i) Finite
(ii) Infinite (b) According to numbers (i) (ii) (c) Individual, as in a bank In groups, as in a ship
(t0)
Queue Arrivals
Service facility
Customers leave
Queue Arrivals
Customers leave
Customers leave
Arrivals
Multiple Servers in Series E.g. Machining of an item consisting of cutting, turning, grinding drilling and packaging
(ii) Last come-first served (LCFS) or Last in-First out (LIFO) basis (iii) Service in random order (SIRO) (iv) Priority Service E.g. Customers called according to some identifiable characteristics (say length of job), treatment of VIPs in preference to other patients in a hospital
An analysis of a given queuing system involves a study of its different operating characteristics. This is done using queuing models. Commonly used operating characteristics are :(a) Queue Length (Lq) Average number of customers in the queue waiting to get service. Long queues may indicate poor service performance or inadequate service facilities. Small queues may imply too much server capacity. (b) System Length (Ls) Average number of customers in the system, i.e. both those waiting to be served and those being served. .Contd
Queuing Models
Assumption: Various models that we would now be seeing are based on the assumption that the system operates under equilibrium or steady state conditions and is not in the transient stage. For example, opening of a departmental store during a normal day or during a big sale day represent radically different initial conditions (small or non-existent initial queue versus long initial queue) which will affect the operating characteristics during the early part of the operating period. However, as time goes by, the system will eventually settle down to its long run or steady state tendencies.
Queuing Models
Another example for settling down into the steady state condition in the long run is the concept of learning curves. When an aircraft is newly purchased, initial servicing time of the aircraft is very high. With practice, however, the time period will gradually reduce and eventually settle down to an average steady state condition.
Steady State Mean
DETERMINISTIC QUEUING MODEL 1. If each customer or unit arrives at fixed or known intervals and the service time is known with certainty, the queuing model would be deterministic in nature. 2. Suppose customers come to a banks teller counter every 5 minutes. Interval between arrivals of any two successive customers is exactly 5 minutes. (a) Suppose the teller takes exactly 5 minutes to serve a customer here both arrival and service rates = 12 customers per hour. In such a situation, there will never be a queue and the teller will always be busy.
indefinitely; the service facility will always be busy; and the service system will eventually fail. if < or = there will be no waiting line; the proportion of
time the service will be idle is (1- / ). / = (pronounced Rho), is also called average utilization or
traffic intensity or clearing ratio or proportion of time that the server is busy. busy. is the proportion of time that the system will be
Note:- It has been proved mathematically that in a probabilistic model, even if = (i.e. =1) the system will eventually fail.
Such deterministic models are only applicable for highly automated plants e.g. soft drinks industry, pharmaceutical industry. Where humans are involved, variable arrival rates and service times are the more realistic assumptions.
N = finite number of customers allowed in the system = infinite number of customers allowed in the system Symbols for f(Calling source/population) N = finite population = infinite population
x!
where,
f(x) = probability of x occurrences in an interval = expected value or mean number of occurrences in an interval. Using this formula for our purpose, with average arrival rate equal to per period of time, then according to Poisson probability distribution, the probability that n customers will arrive in the system during a given time interval t is given by (a) (b) P(n arrivals in time t) = {e- t.( .t)n/n! } for n = 0, 1, 2, ..
Probability density function (pdf) of inter-arrival time ( i.e. time interval between two consecutive arrivals) = .e- t
(Note: is assumed to be constant over time and is independent of the number of units already serviced or served, queue length or any other random property of the queue).
3. If is the arrival rate, the inter-arrival time is 1/ , and if service rate, then the service time is 1/ .
(a)
(b) Probability density function (pdf) of inter-service time (or time between two consecutive services) = (c) .et
Simple Problems
Problem 1 On an average, 6 customers reach a booth every hour to make calls. Determine the probability that exactly 4 customers will reach in 30minute period, assuming that arrivals follow Poisson distribution. Solution Given
Probability of exactly 4 customers reaching in 30-minute period, = e- t.( t)n/n! = e-3.34/4! = 0.168
Simple Problems
Problem 2 In a bank, 20 customers on the average are served by a cashier in an hour. If the service time has exponential distribution, what is the probability that (a) It will take more than 10 minutes to serve a customer? (b) A customer shall be free within 4 minutes? Solution = 20 customers per hour t = 10 minutes = 10/60 = 1/6 hour (a) Probability that it will take more than 10 minutes to serve a customer = e- t = e-20*1/6 = 0.0357 (b) In this case, t = 4 minutes = 1/15 hour ; = 20 customers per hour Probability that a customer shall be free within 4 minutes = 1 e- t = 1 e-20*1/15 = 0.736 Given
NOTATIONS
1. n = no. of customers in the system (waiting and in service). 2. Pn = Probability of n customers in the system. 3. 4. 5. = Average (or expected) customer arrival rate or average arrivals per unit of time in the queuing system. = Average (or expected) service rate or average number of customers served per unit time. / = = Average service completion time (1/ )/Average inter arrival time (1/ ) = Traffic utilization or server utilization factor (the expected fraction of time for which the server is busy)
6. s or c = number of service channels (service facilities or servers). 7. N = finite number of customers allowed in the system or finite population. 8. Ls = Average (expected) no. of customers in the system (waiting and in service). 9. Lq = Average (expected) no. of customers in the queue (queue length). 10. Lb = Average (expected) length of non-empty queue. 11. Ws = Average (expected) waiting time in the system (waiting and in service). 12. Wq = Average (expected) waiting time in the queue.
Assumptions: a) Arrivals follow Poisson distribution with mean arrival rate, say . b) The service time has exponential distribution with service rate, say . c) Arrivals are from infinite population. d) Customers are served on FCFS basis. e) There is only a single service station. f) The system is in steady state of operation.
) or
2/
( - )
7. Expected length of non-empty queues i.e. at least one customer, Lq=1/(1- ) or /( - ) 8. Expected waiting time of a customer in the system, Ws=1/( - ) 9. Expected waiting time of a customer in the queue, Wq= /( - ) or / ( - ) 10.Probability that a customer spends more that t units of time in the system, Ws(t)=e-t/Ws 11. Probability that a customer spends more than t units of time in the queue, Wq(t)= .e-t/Ws
1. Utilisation factor of the system, = /(K. ) 2. Probability that the system is idle, P(0)=[{( / )i/i!}+( / )K/{K!(1- )}]-1 3. Probability that there are n customers in the system,
Pn=P(0).( / )n/n! when nK Pn=P(0).( / )n/(K!Kn-k) when n>k
4. Expected number of customers in the queue, Lq=[( / )K. /{K!(1- )2}].P(0) 5. Expected number of customers in the system, Ls=Lq+( / ) 6. Expected waiting time in the queue, Wq=Lq/ 7. Expected time a customer spends in the system, Ws=Wq+(1/ )