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During the 20th century the world s population quadrupled, the global economy expanded 14-fold, energy use increased 16 times, and the control of world biomass increased to about 40 percent
Overview of Presentation
Describe research topic and key aims Provide context to the proposed research a summary of five existing contributions Propose a broad conceptual framework Describe the economic components of the research Summary of key challenges
Overview of Research
Key task is to develop an integrated model of the Earth system that captures insights from both the natural and social sciences Focus is on:
Natural systems - biogeochemical cycles Socio-economic systems - economy, demographics The interactions within and between these components
Research will pick up on contributions already made by Murray Patterson and Garry McDonald Research will be undertaken at a global level
To identify the anthropogenic disturbance regimes and perturbations that matter at the global level
The human mind is not well-adapted to interpreting the behaviour of our complex earth system characterised by multiple non-linear feedbacks Jay Forrester
Maintaining a constant stock of (natural) capital (some natural capital is critical ) Maintain life-support services and assimilative capacity of the environment Ensuring the Earth system does not transcend to a new stable state
Mackenzie Model
Mackenzie et al. (1993) Strengths: Attempt to integrate biogeochemical cycles (C, N and P) at a global level Relatively simple and easy to understand Limitations: Few connections and feedbacks between cycles
Largely driven by perturbations in P cycle only
f AO ! kA
Limitations:
Every process driven by a selected donor stock Does not include anthropogenic processes
+ Oxidation of land + Loss of ocean Loss of ocean humus Micro N2 HCO32& N2O sulphate + prod + + Increase ocean + Loss of plant + + Loss of humus HCO32Loss of Igneous rocks Ocean NEC + matter + ocean + + + matter HPO4 + C+D + Increase in igneous + decomposition Increase in ocean Micro + Increase in rock minerals prod <Absorption of nitrate ocean HPO4 Land plants + NH3 Increase in CO2> + + <Photoplankton + ocean -+ + fixation> sulphate + <P particulate + Land humus + + increase in plant Increase in land flux> + Decrease in P and matter humus C matter + P decomposition <Release of N2 + + <Gross land &N2O> <Gross land production> production> <uptake of N2 + and N2O> Increase in P and C matter <Uptake of NH3 Producers and by soil> consumers
$9 $25 $12
Allows for easy consideration of economy structure, direct & indirect effects, industrial metabolism
GUMBO Model
Connects social, economic and biophysical systems Focus is on ecosystem services Strengths: Many aspects of the Earth system included:
C, N and H2O cycles, climate, capital formation, GWP, land use, energy use, population
Recognises the industrial metabolism of economy Considers role of the natural systems in economic growth Limitations: Entire economy aggregated to 1 sector
GWP =H S B W N
TARGETS Framework
Temperature increase, UV-B impact
Land cover, Livestock water demand, demand for irri gated cropl and
State Module
State Module (calculates reservoirs and fluxes of biogeochemical cycles) Atmosphere (eg CO2, N2O, sulphate aerosols)
Potenti al yei ld
Policy Module
Scenari os coveri ng: Fores t cleari ng Irri gati on Area of arabl e l and Land Use Dynamics Models distribution of land among land types Land degradation
Greenhouse gas, Temp sulphate & DMS conc feedbacks Climate change module Radiative forcing Ozone conc Mean global temperature
Energy Demand Module Aggregate heat and electricity demand in 5 sectors (commercial, industrial, residential, transport & other Investment in efficiency gains Efficiency gains
Electricity Modules Investment in new capacity Generating costs Electricity price Electricity generation
Temp effects (sea level) N & P concentratios in surface & ground water AQUA Sub-model
GWP, Industrial production, Water investment Sector value added Health services, GWP Population and Health Sub-model Health services demand Temp increase. UV-B impacts
Water demand module Water demand for domestic, agriculture and industrial sectors Water saving efficiency Policy/ Response Module Increase of public water supply & sanitation. Distribution of water takes Water pricing
Water State Module takes & Hydrological cycle discharge Water flows between reservoirs Water quality Allocation of water to classes according to N & P conc
Heat Fuels (Solid Fuel, Liquid Fuel, Gaseous Fuel) Modules Fuel market share Investment in extraction, Extraction costs, Fuel Price Known fuel reserves Fuel production
Pressure Module Global Environmental change Income status literacy Drinking water availability Food availability Response/ Policy Module Population Labour costs Food policy Water policy Health services Reproduction policy
Impact Module Fresh water availability, public water supply & sanitation, water for ecosystems
Population Impact Module Population size and structure Disease burden Population with proper drinking water
Incorporation of cultural dimensions Limitations: Complexity has led to a loss of transparency Limited representation of the economy, only 2 sectors industries and services (but sub-models for agriculture and energy)
Summary
Mackenzie Natural Systems Biogeochemistry Hydrological cycle Climate Resource inputs Interface
Coverage Complexity
GBCM C, P, N, S High x x
GUMBO C, N Mod
TARGETS C, N, S, P Mod Water resources, organic matter, fossil fuels animal & human excre., CH4, CO2, SO2, N UVB, water quality, CO2 fert, nutrients 2 sectors Low Scenario
My Model C, N, S, P High
C, N, P Low x x
Water, ore, Metals, energy fossil fuels, organic matter CO2, S & N oxides CO2, N, waste
Many
Residuals
Many
Other interactions
Coverage Complexity
Economics Human Systems Land use change Energy Demographics Political Cultural
x n/a x x x x x
x n/a x x x x x
Population
Residuals (eg CO2) Demand Energy
Economy
Primary
Limits to production
Services
Land Demand
Manuf
Terrestrial
Ocean
Biome Change
Available land Matter Inputs (eg timber)
Energy
Land Use
Temperature, Precipitation
Radiation
Secondary 6kg
CO2
NO32kg
Human excrement
Industries
2kg 2kg
4kg
2kg
Matter inputs
Scenario-Based
How do we incorporate feedbacks?
CGE Models
Assumption of equilibrium
Rent rate