Module 4 Fundamentals of Probability

Outline
Definition of Probability Theorems of Probability Counting of Events Discrete Probability Distributions Continuous Probability Distribution

Learning Objectives
When you have completed this chapter you should be able to: Define probability using the frequency definition. Know the seven basic theorems of probability. Identify the various discrete and continuous probability distributions.

 Calculate the probability of non-conforming units occurring using the Hyper-geometric, Binomial and Poisson distributions. Know when to use the Hyper-geometric, Binomial and Poisson distributions.

Definition of Probability
Likelihood, chance, tendency, and trend. The chance that something will happen. Examples:
1. If a Nickel is tossed, the probability of a head is

and the probability of the tail is . 2.When a die is tossed on the table, the probability of one spot is 1/6, the probability of two spots is 1/6,..... 3.We are drawing a card from a deck of cards. The probability of a spade is 13/52.

The area of each distribution is equal to 1. The are under the normal distribution curve, which is a probability distribution, is equal to 1. The total probability of any situation will be equal to 1. The probability is expressed as a decimal (the probability of a head is 0.5). An event is a collection of outcomes has six possible outcomes). (six-sided die

When the number of outcomes is known or when the number of outcomes is found by experimentation: P(A) = NA/N where: P(A) = probability of an event A occurring to 3 decimal places NA=number of successful outcomes of event A N= total number of possible outcomes

Example: A part is selected at random from a container of 50 parts that are known to have 10 nonconforming units. The part is returned to the container and a record of the number of trials and the number non-conforming is maintained. After 90 trials, 16 non-conforming units were recorded. What is the probability based on known outcomes and on experimental outcomes.

Solution For known outcomes P(A) = NA/N =10/50 = 0.200 For experimental outcomes P(A) = NA / N = 16 /90 = 0.178

The probability calculated using known outcomes is the true probability, and the one calculated using experimental

outcomes is different due to the chance factor. For an infinite situation (N), the definition would always lead to a probability of zero.

In the infinite situation the probability of an event occurring is proportional to the population distribution. .

Theorems of Probability
Theorem 1 Probability is expressed as a number between 1 and 0, where a value of 1 is a certainty that an event will occur and a value of 0 is a certainty that an event will not occur.

Theorem 2 If P(A) is the probability that event A will occur, then the probability that A will not occur is: P(not A) = 1- P(A)

Example If the probability of finding an error on an quality inspection form is 0.04, what is the probability of finding an error free or conforming form. Answer i.e. 1- 0.040 = 0.960

When to use Theorems 3,4,6 and 7

One Event Out or Two or More Events Two or More Event Out or Two or More Events

Mutually Exclusive Theorem 3

Not Mutually Exclusive Theorem 4

Independent

Dependent

Theorem 6

Theorem 7

Mutually exclusive means that the occurrence of one event makes the other event impossible

Theorem 3 If A and B are two mutually exclusive events (the occurrence of one event makes the other event impossible), then the probability that either event A or event B will occur is the sum of their respective probabilities: P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B) This is the additive law of probability .

Example Table below shows inspection results of components from 3 suppliers X, Y and Z.
Supplier X Y Z TOTAL Number conforming 50 125 75 250 Number non- TOTAL conforming 3 6 2 11 53 131 77 261

Calculate the probability of selecting a random part produced by supplier X or by supplier Z. Answer P(X or Z) = P(X) + P(Z)

53 77 !  ! 0.498 261 261

Theorem 4 If event A and event B are not mutually exclusive, then the probability of either event A or event B or both is given by: P(A or B or both) = P(A) +P(B) P(both) Events that are not mutually exclusive have some outcomes in common

Example Using previous table, calculate probability that a randomly selected part will be from supplier X or a non-conforming unit. Answer: P(X) + P(nc) P(X and nc)

53 11 3 !   ! 0.234 261 261 261

Theorem 5 The sum of the probabilities of the events of a situation is equal to 1.000 P(A) + P(B) + ..+ P(N) = 1.000

Theorem 6 If A and B are independent events (one where its occurrence has no influence on the probability of the other event or events), then the probability of both A and B occurring is the product of their respective probabilities: P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B)

Example Use previous table to calculate the probability that 2 randomly selected parts will be from supplier X and supplier Y, assuming that the first part is returned to the box before the second part is selected. Answer: P(X and Y) = P(X) x P(Y) 53 131 ! ! 0.102 261 261

Theorem 7 If A and B are dependent events, the probability of both A and B occurring is the probability of A and the probability that if A occurred, then B will occur also: P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B\A) P(B\A) is defined as the probability of event B, provided that event A has occurred.

Example Use previous table to calculate the probability that 2 randomly selected parts will be from supplier X and supplier Y, assuming that the first part was from supplier X and was not returned to the box before the second part was selected. Answer: P(X and Y) = P(X) x P(Y/X) 53 131 ! ! 0.102 261 260

Counting of Events
1. Simple multiplication

If an event A can happen in any of a ways or outcomes and, after it has occurred, another event B can happened in b ways or outcomes, the number of ways that both events can happen is ab.

2. Permutations

A permutation is an ordered arrangement of a set of objects.

n! P ! ( n  r )!
n r Where n is total number of objects r = number of objects selected out of the total number Example: The word cup cup, cpu, upc, ucp, puc, and pcu. . i.e. 3 objects in a set arranged in groups of 3 n=3 r=3 to give 6 permutations

3. Combinations

If the way the objects are ordered is unimportant, then we have a combination:

n! C ! r !( n  r )!
n r

Example: The word cup has 6 permutations when the 3 objects are taken 3 at a time. There is only one combination, since the same three letters are in different order. n=3 and r= 3 to give C =1

Discrete Probability Distributions

Hyper-geometric Probability Distribution 1. Occurs when the population is finite and the random sample is taken without replacement. 2. The formula is constructed of 3 combinations (total, nonconforming, and conforming):

C C P( d ) ! C

D d

N D n d N n

where P(d) = probability of d nonconforming units in a sample of size n NC = combinations of all units n DC d = combinations of nonconforming units N-DC n-d = combinations of conforming units N = number of units in the lot (population) n = number of units in the sample D = number of nonconforming units in the lot d = number of nonconforming units in the sample N D = number of conforming units in the lot n d = number of conforming units in the sample

Example A random sample of 4 insurance claims is selected from a lot of 12 that has 3 nonconforming units. Using the hyper-geometric distribution, calculate the probability that the sample will contain exactly; a) 0 non-conforming units b) 3 non-conforming units

a) 0 non-conforming units is;

D N C d C n  D d P(d ) ! N Cn

where N = 9, n = 4, D = 3 and d = 0

C C P ( 0) ! C

3 0

12  3 40 12 4

C C ! ! 0.255 12 C4

3 0

9 4

b) 3 non-conforming units where N = 9, n = 4, D = 3 and d = 3 is;

C C P(3) ! C

3 3

12  3 4 3 12 4

C C ! ! 0.018 C

3 3

9 1 12 4

Example Suppose we randomly select 5 cards without replacement from an ordinary deck of playing cards. What is the probability of getting exactly 2 red cards (i.e., hearts or diamonds)?

Solution: This is a hyper-geometric experiment in which we know the following: N = 52; since there are 52 cards in a deck. D = 26; since there are 26 red cards in a deck. n = 5; since we randomly select 5 cards from the deck. d = 2; since 2 of the cards we select are red. We plug these values into the hypergeometric formula as follows: [ DCd ] [ N-DCn-d ] / [ NCn ] = [ 26C2 ] [ 26C3 ] / [ 52C5 ] = [ 325 ] [ 2600 ] / [ 2,598,960 ] = 0.32513 Thus, the probability of randomly selecting 2 red cards is 0.32513.

Binomial Probability Distribution 1. It is applicable to discrete probability problems that have an infinite number of items or that have a steady stream of items coming from a work center. 2. It is applied to problems that have attributes such as conforming and nonconforming. 3. It is applicable provided the two possible outcomes are constant and the trials are independent

It corresponds to successive terms in the binomial expansion, which is

n(n  1) n2 2 n ( p  q) ! p  np q  p q  .........  q 2

n n n 1

Where p = probability of an event such as conforming unit q = 1 p = probability of a non-event such as a conforming unit.

Distribution of the number of tails for an infinite number of tosses of 11 coins

3. For graph behind, since p=q, the distribution is symmetrical regardless of the value of n, however, when p is not equal to q, the distribution is asymmetrical. 4. In quality work p is the portion or fraction nonconforming and is usually less than 0.15 5. In most case in quality work, we are not interested in the entire distribution, only in one or two terms of the binomial expansion.

The binomial formula for a single term is

n! d n d P(d ) ! p0 q0 d !( n  d )!
where P(d) = proportion of d nonconforming units n = number in the sample d = number conforming in the sample po =proportion (fraction) nonconforming in the population qo = proportion conforming (1 po) in the population

5. As the sample size gets larger, the shape of the curve will become symmetrical even though p is not equal to q. 6. It requires that there be two and only two possible outcomes (C, NC) and that the probability of each outcome does not change.

7. The use of the binomial requires that the trials be independent. 8. It can be approximated by the Poisson when Po 0.10 and nPo 5. 9. The normal curve is an excellent approximation when Po is close to 0.5 and n/N> 0.10

Example Using binomial distribution, find the probability of obtaining 2 or less non-conforming

components in a sample of 9 when the lot is 15% non-conforming.

n! d nd Pd ! po qo ! d!n  d
9! 0 9 P0 ! 0.15 0.85 ! 0.232 0!9  0 !

9! 1 8 P ! 1 0.15 0.85 ! 0.368 1!9  1 !

9! 2 7 P 2 ! 0.15 0.85 ! 0.260 2!9  2 !

P0  P  P2 ! 0.232  0.368  0.260 ! 0.859 1

Poisson Probability Distribution 1. It is applicable to many situations that involve observations per unit of time. 2. It is also applicable to situations involving observations per unit amount. 3. In each of the preceding situations, there are many equal opportunities for the occurrence of an event.

4. The Poisson is applicable when n is quite large and Po is small. 5. When Poisson is used as an approximation to the binomial, the symbol c has the same meaning as d has in the binomial and hypergeometric formulas. .
( np0 )  np0 P(c) ! e c!
c

6. When nPo gets larger, the distribution approaches symmetry. 7. The Poisson probability is the basis for attribute control charts and for acceptance sampling.

9. It is used in other industrial situations, such as accident frequencies, computer simulation, operations research, and work sampling. 10.Uniform (generate a random number table), Geometric, and Negative binomial (reliability studies for discrete data).

11.The Poisson can be easily calculated using Table C. 12.Similarity among the hyper-geometric, binomial, and Poisson distributions can exist.

Continuous Probability Distributions

Normal Probability Distribution 1. When we have measurable data. 2. The normal curve is a continuous probability distribution. 3. Under certain condition the normal probability distribution will approximate the binomial probability distribution.

4. The Exponential probability distribution is used in reliability studies when there is a constant failure rate. 5. The Weibull distribution is used when the time to failure is not constant.