Agriculture Development and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: SubBuilding a Case for More Support

A Case Study of Zambia

Dennis K. Chiwele RuralNet Associates Limited

Study Questions
Why Zambia faces long-term high exposure to food insecurity. Desirability of dependency on food aid and commercial food imports for long-term mitigation of failure to meet food requirements from domestic production. Required strategies for Zambia to come out of chronic food imports dependency.

Zambia is consistently failing to meet her food needs from domestic production (1)
Figure 2.1: Food supply of cereals, roots and tuber (Cal/ per/ day)
Per capita food supply 1,800.00 1,600.00 1,400.00 1,200.00 C al /Ca p/D ay 1,000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Years Cereals Roots & tubers Aggregate

Source: FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheet http://atps.fao

Zambia is consistently failing to meet her food needs from domestic production (2)
Figure 2.8: Trends in Maize Production, 1989 - 2003 (Tri-Annual Moving Average) 1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0

19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
Output in Metric Tonnes Area Cultivated (Ha)

Zambia is consistently failing to meet her food needs from domestic production (3)
Figure 2.9: Maize Production and Demand, 1989 - 2004
2000 Metric Tonnes 1500 1000 500 0

9/ 90

1/ 92

3/ 94

5/ 96

7/ 98

9/ 00

1/ 02 20 0

19 9

19 9

19 9

19 9

Domestic Production

Maize Demand Total

20 0

19 8

19 9

3/ 04

An unacceptably high proportion of the population is exposed to chronic food insecurity (1)
Figure 2.2: Malnutrition Indicators for Children Under Five Years Old, 1991 - 1998
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 48 40 23 7 25 6 1993 Stunting (%)
Source: Tables 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3

50 25 4 1996

53

26 5 1998 Wasting (%)

1991

Under-weight (%)

An unacceptably high proportion of the population is exposed to chronic food insecurity (2) The Food Security, Health and Nutrition Information System (FHANIS) conducted in August 2003 found the following:
34% HHs had run out of stock of staple food 20% to run out in 1 month 22% to last 2-3 months 24% to last more than 3 months

Zambia has become dependent on food imports as a means to try and overcome the high chronic food deficits
Table 2.16: Zambia Cereal Balance Sheet, Five Year Average 1999 - 2003 ITEM METRIC TONNES Opening Stocks 95,000 Domestic Production 1,095,000 Total Availability 1,190,000 Domestic Requirements 1,467,000 Unplanned Exports 14,000 Desired Closing Stocks 20,000 Total Requirements 1,501,000 Domestic Cereal Gap -311,000 Commercial Imports Received 111,000 Food Aid Received 71,000 Total Imports Received 182,000 Unfilled Cereal Gap 129,000

The vulnerability context producing the high levels of food insecurity is complex
Immediate Causes: Poor harvests and animal losses But weakened livelihoods systems are at the centre of rising vulnerability Long Term Trends: Fall in real incomes, rising food prices, rising unemployment, removal of subsidies, sell of productive assets, depletion of natural resources Human Health Long Term Trends: HIV/AIDS and loss of resilience to shocks and seasonal factors Shocks: Droughts, outbreak of animal diseases, balance of payments crises Seasonal Factors: Rise in food prices (and decline in stocks) in months before harvest, rise in disease in the rain season

Agriculture is key to Zambias development particularly given declining mineral output

Figure 3.1: Agriculture, Mining and Manufacturing Share in GDP, 1994 - 2003 (1994 Constant Prices)
20 15 Percent 10 5 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003*
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing

But GDP figures mask true significance of agriculture to Zambia

Absorbs about 67% of the labour force Main source of income and employment for majority Directly significant to Hh food security for many Zambians, particularly in rural areas Agro-processing industries directly fed by agriculture constitute 75% of manufacturing production with significant implications for urban employment Contribution to BOP greatly increased in last 15 years. Now contributes over 40% to NTEs (47% in 1999) at a time of NTEs phenomenal growth

Rightly declared by GRZ as the engine for broad based and equitable growth but faces many challenges.

Given vast resource endowment (climate, land, labour and water), Zambia has great potential to expand agric production and make the country food self-sufficient Has under-performed and not matched potential due to: 1. Uncertainties due to transition to a liberalised agric sector that led to demise of key rural institutions. 2. Low agriculture prices in remote areas due to high transaction costs. 3. Climatic variability and the lack of adaptation of current farming practices by small farmers. 4. Decline in soil fertility in areas which have been historically the most productive.

Agriculture has under performed due to (continued):

5. 6. 7. 8.

Labour constraints at peak times of the season Low education and poor health status. Gender discrimination. Decline in the number of households with access to modern farm inputs. 9. Inadequate investments for farm improvements due to unsupportive land tenure system

Evolution of public support to agriculture: policies and institutions

1. 2. 3. 4.

Beginning 1992, new policy regime to liberalize markets and raise private sector participation: Agric marketing subsidies that had been central to the sector completely removed Pan-territorial pricing system abolished. Restrictions on agricultural imports and exports eased. Import licensing completely removed in 1994

Evolution of public support to agriculture: institutions Agricultural Sector Investment Program (1996 2000) and Agriculture Commercialization Program (2002 to Present) have been the two overarching programs But review of ASIP concluded that implementation had proceeded in an unfavourable environment as pre-conditions necessary for successful implementation were either totally absent or failed to hold as expected The ACP not taken off as expected with no donors funding its implementation.

Evolution of public support to agriculture: budget and fiscal Agric expenditure was 2% and 5% from 1994 to 2003, averaging 3%. Was higher during ASIP years (4.7% average)

Pattern of releases created serious instabilities, making the budget as a tool of planning completely irrelevant

Assessing Impacts of Food Imports/Aid Dependence (1)

Cereal imports relative to domestic maize gap varied widely year to year, averaging 41% from 1997 to 2002 Food imports implicitly exist as a supplementary avenue for achieving adequate food supply No clear policy on proportion of food imports to domestic cereal gap But GRZ seems to want to fill the full gap with food imports. However, HHs more resilient to cope with staple food shortfalls by substituting with other foods up to a point

Assessing Impacts of Food Imports/Aid Dependence (2) Undermines coping mechanisms that may be pointing to directions for more sustainable food access mechanisms May be undermining drive towards increased diversification May be perpetuating distortion in food consumption and demand in the same way that the over-promotion of maize distorted consumption patterns of Zambia Uncertainty to farmers may be undermining long-term investments in the sector In communities where food relief is consistently provided, a dependency syndrome has been observed

Emerging Opportunities For Addressing Food Security in Zambia

Increased diversification away from maize The rising share of roots and tubers and small grains in total area cultivated Rising entry of traditional crops into markets Rising exports The rise in out-grower schemes Changing farming practices Improving macro-economy

Strategies to Achieve Food Security Creating a Conducive Environment for Agriculture Development and Food Security Improved Livelihoods Security for the Vulnerable Groups 1. Helping households cope with hunger 2. Raising the productivity of available assets in the face of persisting constraints 3. Increased integration into markets 4. Promotion of non-farm activities Increased diversification of agriculture Greater commercialisation of smallholder agriculture There is a strong case for investing and promoting irrigation

Key Messages For SSA

A food import policy faces difficulties in three areas: 1. The inability of the country to generate sufficient resources from other economic activities to import food on a sustainable basis. 2. Majority have adequate cash income to buy food. 3. Food aid is unreliable with SSA counties having little control on the amount, type and timing of food aid. Induced uncertainties have serious negative consequences. Continuing high levels of food insecurity a clear indictment of food import policy Food insecurity is no longer transitory but chronic of which the food import policy is inadequate to address Food insecurity vulnerability is deepening as a result of many other variables besides the inability to produce adequate food