FINAL LECTURE IN SS2 FOR SY 2009/10 MBSP2010

India becomes independent. The Peoples Republic of China is born (1949). Japan adopts a postwar constitution.

Terrorists claim 164 lives in Mumbai.

China hosts the Olympics.

1858
The Sepoy Rebellion is defeated. The Chinese lose the Opium War. The Japanese sign the Harris Treaty.

1990

1947

India undertakes economic reforms. The development of Shanghai begins.

2008

OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION

I. Forces that Shaped the 20th Century A. The Rise of Nations B. Interdependence C. Flattening of the World II. The Rise of Asia: The Dragon and the Elephant

III. 1990 to 2010 (and beyond): Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st century

I
THE FORCES THAT SHAPED THE 20TH CENTURY

FORCE 1: THE RISE OF NATIONS

FORCE 1: THE RISE OF NATIONS

Historical patterns:

1. The Great Liberation refers to a wave of decolonization and emergence of newly independent nation states. 2. The Cold War rivalry between the US and the USSR encouraged new states as the two superpowers sought new allies.
3. The paradox of colonialism argues that while the imperial powers granted independence, they left the country unable to be independent.

FORCE 2: INTERDEPENDENCE
Question: What is globalization? Answer: Princess Diana's death Question: How come? Answer: An English princess with an Egyptian boyfriend crashes in a French tunnel, driving a German car with a Dutch engine, driven by a Belgian who was high on Scottish whiskey, followed closely by Italian Paparazzi, on Japanese motorcycles, treated by an American doctor, using Brazilian medicines! And this is sent to you by a Canadian, using Bill Gates' technology which he got from the Japanese. And you are probably reading this on one of the IBM clones that use Philippine-made chips, and Korean made monitors, assembled by Bangladeshi workers in a Singapore plant, transported by lorries driven by Indians, hijacked by Indonesians and finally sold to you by a Chinese! That's Globalization!

FORCE 2: INTERDEPENDENCE

What problems in the world are caused by at least two states coming into contact with each other?

What solutions require the collaboration of two or more states working with each other?

FORCE 3: FLATTENING OF THE WORLD

In 2005, New York Times journalist Thomas Friedman wrote about how technology, communication, and globalization all work together to level the playing field for everyone.

FORCE 3: FLATTENING OF THE WORLD

Arjun Appadurai, in 1989 wrote about the five scapes that define global interaction. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Ethnoscapes Technoscapes Finanscapes Mediascapes Ideoscapes

ETHNOSCAPES

TECHNOSCAPES

FINANSCAPES

MEDIASCAPES

IDEOSCAPES

II
THE DRAGON AND THE ELEPHANT

THE TECTONIC PLATE METAPHOR

This section deals with the parallel histories of China and India from the end of the Age of Imperialism to independence, and to their early struggles as independent and sovereign nation states. Liken them to the tectonic plates that shift beneath the earth, defining land areas and splitting oceans. The impact of China and India is just as powerful and profound.

Shifts in one or the other can affect the surrounding regions and countries greatly, and that is something we will see as we head into the 21st century.

India becomes independent. The Peoples Republic of China is born (1949). Japan adopts a postwar constitution.

China hosts the Olympics.

Terrorists claim 164 lives in Mumbai.

1858
The Sepoy Rebellion is defeated. The Chinese lose the Opium War. The Japanese sign the Harris Treaty.

1990

1947

India undertakes economic reforms. The development of Shanghai begins.

2008

We begin our story with China and India at a weak and disadvantaged position. China has just been splintered into spheres of influence, and India has just been put under official control of the British crown. Things are bound to get worse before they get better.

THREE CRUSHING BLOWS TO CHINA

The Opium Wars of 1839 and 1856

The Taiping Rebellion of 185064 (led by Hong Xiuquan)

Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95

THE DYNASTIC CYCLE ENDS

SUN YAT SEN (Sun Zhongshan) is often called the father of Chinese nationalism. He spoke of the 3 principles of the people: Peoples Nationalism, Peoples Sovereignty, Peoples Livelihood. He co-founded the Kuomintang (KMT, Nationalist Peoples Party) and served as its first leader. He led a revolution in 1911 and forced the Emperor to leave the throne by February 1912.

A RED SOLUTION
During the May 4th Movement of 1919, Marxist (socialist) ideas gained popularity. In a small meeting in 1921 attended by 53 men (including a passionate man named Mao Zedong), the Communist Party of China was born.

A fierce rivalry between the KMT and the Communist followed after an attempted purge in 1927. Mao fled to the countryside.

In 1934, starting at around 100,000, they traveled for 6,000 miles in 368 days, fighting 15 major battles and 300 skirmishes. Only 15,000 survived.

THE EAST IS RED

1931: Japan invaded Manchuria; they engaged the Chinese in open warfare by 1937. 1945: The surrender of the Japanese left the KMT and Communists fighting for control of China.

October 1, 1949: The Peoples Republic of China is established.

MEANWHILE IN INDIA
The Sepoy Rebellion is defeated. In 1876, Queen Victoria proclaims herself Empress of India.

India is placed under the direct rule of the British crown, with all its pros and cons.

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
Thomas Babington Macaulay encouraged the rise of western-educated Indians, thinking that they would bolster British power.

We must at present do our best to form a class who may be interpreters between us and the millions whom we govern; a class of persons, Indian in blood and color, but English in taste, in opinions, in morals, and in intellect.
But quite the opposite happened.

The Indian National Congress was first organized in 1885; The Muslim League soon followed in 1906.

THE GREAT SOUL

The British held a monopoly over salt, a necessity for Indians. Gandhis march signaled the loudest proudest against British rule.

AT THE STROKE OF MIDNIGHT

On 15 August 1947, India won its Independence

at a price. Pakistan was to be a separate country.

China and India tremble, and the entire Asian continent shifts. A new communist regime rises in China, and India finally wins its independence but at a brutal price. What follows next is the story of their struggles as new nations in a changing world.

BACK IN CHINA, A NEW BEGINNING

What was life like back in Communist China? Here are some scenarios.

FIRST: You (and everyone else) wont be allowed to own private property. No cellphones. No MP3 players. No laptops or personal computer. No reason for people to be jealous of one another. No conflict. No class distinction.

SECOND: In the classroom, you just repeat what teacher says. You cannot question or comment. Just repeat. Repeat. Repeat. You also have to memorize all the Communist hymns and write long essays about how great your leader is!

THE COMMUNIST LIFE THIRD: The dormers will be just at home in Communist China because everyone lives in a dorm now! Your dad, mom, brother, sister, grandparents and even your dog all live in one place together with other families. We call this the commune and everything is shared food, housing, bath, clothes, everything! During the day especially during THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD the adults work in the fields while the children are in school and sing praises for Chairman Mao!

THE COMMUNIST LIFE FOURTH: If you have high IQ or consider yourself an artist, better start hiding. Intellectuals and artists are enemies of Communist China. During the CULTURAL REVOLUTION (1960s), Mao went after those who are stuck to the old ways (specifically Confucian scholars) of China. He burned books (sounds familiar?) and sent the scholars to work in the fields and factories, criticize themselves (you have to write long essays about how wrong you are) and be reeducated by the peasants.

LEGACY
Mao Zedong left a dual legacy: founder and communist hero, and a grand failure as a social engineer. Ironically, for all that is written about him, it is not Mao who will be credited for todays China. It will be Deng Xiaoping.

MEANWHILE IN SOUTH ASIA

An artificial border was drawn between India and Pakistan, prompting mass migrations and violence on both sides.

Gandhi fasts to halt the violence, but it his assassination in January 30, 1948 that would help end the worst of the violence.

TRYST WITH DESTINY

Jawaharlal Nehru was the first Prime Minister of India.

Nehru utilized a socialist model, relying on the government machinery to deliver basic goods and services from infrastructure to education.
He was also an egalitarian, and worked to end discrimination against depressed classes and women.

LIMITS OF SOCIALISM
Indian economic policy after independence was a direct response to the British rule which they saw as exploitative in nature. Government had control over every single economic activity. Elaborate licenses had to be secured to put up businesses in India from 1947 to 1990. Impact? The low annual growth rate of the economy of India stagnated around 3.5% from 1950s to 1980s. At the same time, Pakistan grew by 5%, Indonesia by 9%, Thailand by 9%, South Korea by 10% and in Taiwan by 12%. Investment was monopolized by the government. The License Raj was prone to corruption.

Our story ends here. China and India are poised to rise as new leaders in the region in the coming century. The rest of the continent has much to learn from their experience. But as new opportunities come so do challenges. The story continues.

III
1990 to 2010 (and beyond): CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY

THE EAST ASIA FORUM BEGINS NEXT WEEK As a class, you have the following goals:

Using the format of Model UN, stage an East Asia Regional Forum headed by the ASEAN and its major partners, China, South Korea, and Japan.
Arrive at resolutions on three issue areas: 1. Peace, Order and Stability 2. Climate Change 3. Poverty Alleviation and Human Development

MY GOALS AS YOUR TEACHER By letting you go through the motions of Model UN, it is my hope that you 1. Comprehend the processes of making decisions on a regional and global scale. 2. Appreciate the complexity of issues, and how national interests may or may not coincide with global interests. 3. Give yourself something to think about when you touch on history, politics, and economics in the future.

THE MAJOR ISSUES

PEACE, ORDER & SECURITY Border conflicts Terrorism Ongoing wars Insurgencies and secessionist movements Organized crime and syndicates Illegal trade and black markets Maritime piracy CLIMATE CHANGE & RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Global warming Food security Biodiversity Deforestation Illegal mining Foreign ownership of natural resources Investment in green technology POVERTY ALLEVIATION & HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Education Reproductive health Government inefficiency Dwindling life expectancies Human rights Plight of refugees Human capital flight (brain drain)

III.A
PEACE, ORDER & SECURITY

1931 Japanese invade Manchuria

7 July 1937 Japanese invade Nanking

7 Dec 1941 Japanese bomb Pearl Harbor 2 Jan 1942 Japanese capture Manila 6 Aug 1945 The atomic bomb drops on Hiroshima

1931 Japanese invade Manchuria

7 July 1937 Japanese invade Nanking

7 Dec 1941 Japanese bomb Pearl Harbor 2 Jan 1942 Japanese capture Manila 6 Aug 1945 The atomic bomb drops on Hiroshima

POLARITY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS British Empire at its height Age of Imperialism Cold War Post-Cold War Unipolar world order Multipolar world order Bipolar world order Nonpolar world order

A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE WEST

OCCIDENTALISM This is a view of the West, particularly the United States, as 'a mass of soulless, decadent, money-grubbing, rootless, faithless, unfeeling parasites' This views sees the West in four characterizations:
the West prefers the sinful city to the virtuous countryside;
the West destroys heroism and replaces it with trading; the West thinks only of matter and not of spirit; the West worships evil

FUNDAMENTALISM From Karen Armstrong, The Battle for God

Muslims are downtrodden because they have allowed foreign ideologies such as capitalism and Marxism to displace the cultural values, philosophy, and way of life that has once served as the foundation of a great civilization; Islam will be able to develop its own modern civilization only be rejecting Western laws and customs and returning society completely to the Sharia.

VIOLENCE AGAINST THE WEST

Occidentalism hints at why there exists violence against the West, particularly the United States of America. Occidentalism is not just a matter of culture or ideology, but of politics and economics as well. Terrorism can be seen as a reaction to colonial times. This remains a powerful challenge for the 21st century.

III.B
CLIMATE CHANGE

I don't really consider this a political issue, I consider it to be a moral issue. - Al Gore

THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE It's difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends upon his not understanding it. Upton Sinclair via Al Gore Moving towards a lasting solution to climate change requires tremendous political will. On the part of the individual, understanding the climate change threat requires tremendous sociological imagination.

THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES vs DEVELOPED ECONOMIES The current climate crisis is seen mostly as the product of the developed economies. Why should developing countries pay the price for something that isnt their fault? (And hence, when they pay, they may lose out on the advantages they need to develop.)

III.C
POVERTY ALLEVIATION AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

RETHINKING POVERTY

As presented in The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs (2005)

RETHINKING POVERTY

As presented in The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs (2005)

RETHINKING POVERTY

As presented in The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs (2005)

RETHINKING POVERTY Conclusions about modern economic growth:

All regions were poor in 1820

All regions experienced economic progress Todays rich regions experienced by the far the greatest economic progress

In investigating the gap between rich and poor then, the question becomes: Why do different parts of the world grow at different rates?

RETHINKING POVERTY

Why do different parts of the world grow at different rates?Here are some possibilities.

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Physical geography Government failure Cultural barriers Geopolitics Lack of innovation Demographic trap Poverty trap

THE MAJOR ISSUES

PEACE, ORDER & SECURITY Border conflicts Terrorism Ongoing wars Insurgencies and secessionist movements Organized crime and syndicates Illegal trade and black markets Maritime piracy CLIMATE CHANGE & RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Global warming Food security Biodiversity Deforestation Illegal mining Foreign ownership of natural resources Investment in green technology POVERTY ALLEVIATION & HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Education Reproductive health Government inefficiency Dwindling life expectancies Human rights Plight of refugees Human capital flight (brain drain)

With that, we conclude. Good luck in your Model East Asia Forum! As the first ever batch, you will literally be making history.