Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
It has been suggested that Bayesian statistics be used in environmental science because it addresses questions about the probability of events occurring, which allows better decision-making
Creates credible intervals rather than confidence intervals tells how likely the answer is in the real world
Likelihood function Given data, with a known (or predicted) distribution (i.e., Normal, Poisson), a likelihood function (probability distribution) can be calculated
Prior probability based on existing data or a subjective indication of what the investigator believes to be true Expected likelihood function marginal distribution of data given hyperparameter; takes sample size into account
Case Study #1: Development of a Bayesian Probability Network in the Neuse River Estuary, N.C.
(Borsuk ME, Stow CA, Reckhow KH 2003. An integrated approach to TMDL development for the Neuse River estuary using a Bayesian probability network. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, accepted)
Summary of Project
Neuse River estuary impaired due to nitrogen (eutrophication problems), requiring a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) to be developed For development of a TMDL, links must be developed between pollutant load ( [N] ), and water quality impairment Because of the range of endpoints and the need to determine probability of impact, a Bayesian Network was developed
Data for the model came from routine water quality monitoring and from elicited judgment of scientific experts
River [ N ]
River Flow
Pfisteria abundance
Duration of Stratification
Shellfish Abundance Frequency of Cross-Channel Winds
Oxygen Concentration
Days of Hypoxia
Node or Submodel
Association
Case Study #2: Assessing Spatial Population Viability Models using Bayesian Statistics
(Mac Nally R, Fleishman E, Fay JP, Murphy DD 2003. Modeling butterfly species richness using mesoscale environmental variables: model construction and validation for the mountain ranges in the Great Basin of western North America. Biological Conservation 110:21-31.
Summary of Project
Species richness local environmental variables Over large scales these variables hard to collect This study: (14) environmental variables from GIS and remote sensing used to predict butterfly species richness
Poisson regression used to develop appropriate models from the 28 variables (IV + IV2); Schwartz Information Criteria used for selection
Appropriate variables then used in Bayesian Poisson model
Markov Chain-Monte Carlo algorithm; 1000 iteration burn-in, 3000 iterations to generate parameter estimates and mean spp richness estimates
New model run using validation data and regression-coefficient distn from the 1st model
Model worked well for same mountain range, but not for new range
Case Study #3: Assessing Spatial Population Viability Models using Bayesian Statistics
(McCarthy MA, Lindenmayer DB, Possingham HP 2001. Assessing spatial PVA models of arboreal marsupials using significance tests and Bayesian statistics. Biological Conservation 98:191-200.
Summary of Project
Population Viability Analysis used in Conservation Biology to assess potential for species extinction
Many models based on limited data assessed via significance tests or Bayesian methods
Metapopulation models (for 4 arboreal marsupials) were developed 2 competing null models also developed No effect of fragmentation No dispersal between patches Models were compared using likelihood and Bayesian methods
Model Comparison
Predicted presence in patches was compared to observed presence using logistic regression: ln (o/(1 o)) = + *ln(p/(1 - p)) where o = observed presence p = predicted presence , = regression coefficients Significant differences between predicted and observed if significantly different from 0 or significantly different from 1 Models compared using log-likelihood; models with higher log-likelihood values (closer to 0) more closely match data
Bayesian posterior probabilities used to compare models; higher probabilities more closely match data prior all 3 models equally plausible Probability of Model = likelihood of model / sum of all likelihoods
Conclusions
Comparison with actual data: Full model best for greater glider, yellow-bellied glider No fragmentation model best for mountain brushtail possum, ringtail possum (but predicted values ~ observed values) Log-likelihood values: Confirm no fragmentation model best for 2 possum spp