Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

A NEW ENERGY MIX FOR PAKISTAN THE PAKISTAN AND REGIONAL ENERGY FORUM
MOVING TOWARDS ENERGY SUFFICIENCY, SUSTAINABILITY & SOVEREIGNTY
by Munawar B. Ahmad, PE EMR-Consult Oct. 2009

Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

ROOTS OF PAKISTANS ENERGY CRISIS Pakistan today is caught up in an acute Energy Crisis which has
its roots in five (5) distinct causes, namely; i. Lack of Integrated Energy Planning & Demand Forecasting and absence of central & focused entity responsible for the Energy Sector ii. Imbalanced Energy Mix with heavy reliance on gas (47.5%) and Oil (30.5%) (72% imported) iii. Non-utilization of vast indigenous resources of Thar Coal and Hydel potential iv. Lack of effective project structuring, planning and implementation of indentified and viable projects v. Inadequate Primary Energy Sources or access to, or
2

1.

Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

1.

As a major supply chain and infrastructure gaps, namely; i.

ROOTS OF PAKISTANS ENERGY CRISIS consequence the energy shortages have snowballed

with

The Electric Power Sector; has been in static non-growth mode from 2003-2008, and the peak supply-demand gap has grown to about 3,500 - 4,000 MW from about 1,000 MW in 2006. (Fig. I (a), I (b) )

ii. In the Gas Sector; the demand - supply gap that emerged in 2007 has grown to about 800 MMcfd in 2009 due to stalled import projects (Mashal, IPI, PGP) and local fields not developed / put in production for 5 years ( 500 MMcfd) (Fig. II ) iii. Inadequate Energy Infrastructure; supply to end customers both for electric power as well as fuel oil for Power
3

Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

4.1 -

PAKISTANS PRIMARY ENERGY MIX

Pakistans Primary Energy Mix is essentially imbalanced even on a worldwide comparative basis, with dependence on gas at 47.5%, oil at 30.5% (72% imported) (Fig. V ) The 2005 Energy Plan, projected a continuing dependence of about 48% on Natural Gas in the 2030 scenario, based on mega imports thru Transnational Pipelines (6.5 bcfd) and LNG (1.5 bcfd) (Fig. VI ) With the continuing delay in the planned TNPs and LNG import projects (Mashal, PGP, Engro etc) the primary energy gap is increasing at an alarming rate By 2015 the natural gas supply-demand gap after LNG imports of 1.0 bcfd (if implemented) will increase to 1.7 bcfd, and is unlikely to be covered as IPI cannot be completed in this time frame There is clearly an essential need to plan a revised Primary Energy Mix along with a revised electricity generation plan by source in the 2010 2030 scenario 4

Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

4.2 -

PAKISTANS POWER GENERATION BY SOURCE

With rising cost of crude oil from $ 60 in 2005 to $ 147 in 2008, Pakistans oil based thermal generation (32%) became unsustainable and has resulted in a massive Energy Sector debt ( $ 3.6 billion) Coal utilization is about 9% in the Energy Mix, and only 0.1% for Power Generation vs. 72% in China, 56% in India and more than 50% in the USA (Fig. VII ) New power generation has remained static for about 7 years (Fig. VIII ) A more rational and Sustainable Energy Mix must be planned for the 2010-2030 scenario. Significant increase in hydel power generation and optimum use of coal thru gasification and clean coal technologies As a strategic priority Nuclear Electric Energy has to be increased to about 5% and Renewable to about 3% in the 2030
5

Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

5.1

THAR COAL UTILIZATION

Pakistans Thar Coal Potential

Worlds Single largest contiguous Coal field extending over 10,000 Sq KMs (Fig- IX ) Reserves of 175 200 billions tons exceed oil equivalent reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, with a value of several trillion US$ (Figure-X ) Phased development can lead to 400 600 mt /year coal mining in 20 years All of Pakistans energy requirements (Electric, Power, Gas, Diesel) can be met in 2020 2030 scenario The most recent ADB report (May 2007) states Thar lignite once mined, is a useable fuel or carbon resource and Coal to liquids-CTL is considered a serious utilization option In addition to Electric Power, SNG, Chemicals, Fertilizer, etc can be produced for self consumption and surplus can be exported (Figure-XI )

E R- C n u M o s lt

Energy is our business

5.1

THAR COAL UTILIZATION

Co-Production Plants based on Thar Coal Gasification Coal production costs have to be in the range of $20 - $25 /tons, which
equates to a crude oil cost of about $50 per barrel in order to achieve economical levels To achieve cost benchmark mine capacity of 50 mtons/year is required in three phases of (1) 15 mtons/yr (2) 30 mtons/yr and (3) 50 mtons/yr Following co-production plants will need to be set-up in the three phases to match with coal production over 3-5 years;
Phase mt/yr 1) IGCC 500 mw (3 mtons/yr) and SNG 250 mmcfd (12 mtons/yr). Total 15

Phase 2) IGCC 500 mw (3 mtons/yr) and FTD 30,000 barrels/day (12 mtons/yr). Total 30 mt/yr Phase 3) SNG 250 mmcfd (12 mtons/yr) and FTD 20,000 barrels/day (8 mtons/yr). Total 50 mt/yr

In subsequent phases, chemical and fertilizer plants would be set-up as part of a Mega Petro-Chemical Complex which would be supported 7 by additional coal mining

Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

5.2 -

HYDEL POWER GENERATION

The country has an estimated Hydro Resources Potential of about 45,000 MW, currently whereas only 6,500 MW have been installed with 11% share in the Energy Mix. It is proposed in the long term scenario to increase share of Hydro in Primary Energy from 6,500 MW (11%) at present to about 32,100 MW (20%) by 2030 (30% share in Power Generation) This will entail set up of 8,000 MW small/medium hydro units on rivers/canals, run of the river plants and four large hydro multipurpose reservoirs/dams with capacity of about 17,600 MW upto 2030 The four large Hydro Dams are, (i) Kalabagh 3,800 MW, (ii) Bhasha 4,600 MW, (iii) Bunji 5,400 MW, (iv) Dasu 3,800 MW It is necessary to maintain an optimal Hydro/Thermal Mix, in
8

Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

7.

SET-UP OF NATIONAL ENERGY AUTHORITY An essential step towards NEA preparation and implementation of a
National Energy Plan is the set-up of a statutory body, The National Energy Authority (NEA)

The NEA would be an independent and focal entity with a Chairman and 12 Board members, (6 private sector professionals and 6 energy sector experts, MDs etc from the Public Sector/GOP) The NEA would be responsible for, and have the authority to undertake strategic planning in the Energy Sector and prepare a comprehensive ENERGY POLICY. The NEA would prepare an integrated and Comprehensive National Energy Plan (NEP) for the Short, Medium and Long Term based on robust projections on a scientific basis. The NEA would also identify, plan and pursue implementation of Energy Sector Infrastructure augmentation/expansion by the OMCs, PEPCO, SSGC, SNGPL etc. The NEA would coordinate with the sectoral organizations, public 9 companies OMCs, E&P Companies, IPPs etc and relevant Ministries

Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

Figure-VII

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY SOURCE 2007-2008

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE 2007-2008

Coal Power Generation China 72%

India USA 56% 51% 10

Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

Figure- XII

PRIMARY ENERGY MIX (a) Current 2008 2030 Per 2005 Energy Plan

Revised Plan 2030

11

Energy is our business

E R- C n u M o s lt

Figure- XIII

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE (b) 2030 Per 2005 Energy Plan Current 2008

Revised Plan 2030

12