Probability

How to calculate simple probabilities

04/04/2012

D. Smith

The probability of an event happening is given by the rule

Probability = Required Event / Total Possible i.e. The number of required events divided by the total number of possible events
2

04/04/2012

Getting a 4 on a single dice

There is 1 required event a four There are 6 possible events

P(4) = 1/6
The answer may be written as a fraction, decimal or percentage
3

The P says, The probability of

04/04/2012

The probability of not getting a 4

There are five numbers on the single dice that are not a 4 There are six possible outcomes

So, P(Not getting a 4) = 5/6

4

04/04/2012

It is important that you notice that the two probabilities add together to give 1

The total probabilities of

any event have a total of

1/6 + 5/6 = 1
Probability of not getting a 4 on a single dice
5

Probability of getting a 4 on a single dice

04/04/2012

The total of all probabilities for an event equal 1. This important fact can be used to find probabilities.
For example, you are told that the probability of a football teams results in the next match are:

P(Win) = 0.3 P(Lose) = 0.5 What is the probability of a draw?

6

04/04/2012

Remember the total of all the probabilities is 1

The team must win, lose or draw. P(Win) + P(Lose) + P(Draw) = 1

This is 0.5

This is 0.3

0.3 + 0.5 + P(Draw) = 1

7

04/04/2012

To calculate P(Draw)
P(Win) + P(Lose) + P(Draw) = 1

0.3 + 0.5 + P(Draw) = 1 P(Draw) = 1 (0.3 + 0.5) P(Draw) = 1 0.8 P(Draw) = 0.2
04/04/2012 8

What did you do?

Add together the probabilities that you know and take this number away from one.

You know P(Win) = 0.3 and P(Lose) = 0.5 You know that the total of all the probabilities is 1 So add 0.3 and 0.5 to get 0.8 Then take this away from 1 1 0.8 = 0.2
9

04/04/2012

P(Draw) = 0.2

04/04/2012

10

Can I have a date?

04/04/2012

11

Three boys ring Jane and ask her for a date

Jane decides that she will have a date with one of the boys but cannot decide which of the boys to choose.
Jane knows the boys and the probability that she will choose a certain boy is shown below

Name Probability
04/04/2012

Dave 0.1

Glyn O.6

Sam ?
12

What is the probability that she will choose Sam?

Total Probabilities = 1
P(Dave) + P(Glyn) + P(Sam) = 1

0.1 + 0.6 + P(Sam) = 1

So P(Sam) = 1 (0.1 + 0.6)

P(Sam) = 0.3
04/04/2012 13

Mutually Exclusive
Sounds very clever. It means that one event excludes (makes impossible) another event. You cannot get heads and tails at the same time on a coin. You cannot win and lose at the same time. It allows the fact that total probability is one to be used to solve problems
04/04/2012 14

Probability Expected number of successes = p (success) number of trials

Example If a dice is rolled 300 times, how many times would you expect to roll a number greater than 4? P (number> 4) = 2/6 = 1/3 Expected number of successes = p (success) number of trials
Expected number of scores greater than 4 = 1/3 300 = 100 1230?
04/04/2012 15

Exercise 1 1. A dice is rolled 510 times how many times would you expect to roll a) an even number b) a 4 c) a number less than 4? 2. About 1/6 of people have red hair. How many red haired people would you expect to find in a school of 1230?
04/04/2012 16

3. The probability that Cardiff City F.C win a match is 3/8. If they play 24 matches, how many would you expect them to win? 4. One in seven sweets in a bag are strawberry flavoured. If there are 490 bags of sweets, how many times would you expect the first sweet chosen to be strawberry flavoured?

04/04/2012

17

5. A pack of playing cards are spilt into two piles. Pile A has all the picture cards and the aces. All the other cards are in Pile B. a) If you pick a card at random from pile A what is the probability that it is the ace of diamonds? b) How many times would you expect to pick a picture card first from Pile A if you picked a card at random 400 times and replaced the card each time? c) How many times would you expect to pick a heart first from Pile B, if you picked a card at random 240 times?

6. If you remove all the picture cards and the hearts from a deck of cards you are left with a pile of cards. If you pick one card at random a) What is the probability that you choose the two of spades? b) What is the probability that the card is a club? c) If you were to repeat this 390 times, how many times would you expect to pick a red card?
04/04/2012 18

7. About one in twelve people have allergies to cats. If you asked 900 people in the street, how many would you expect to suffer from this allergy? 8. Thomas forgets his homework diary one day a week (Monday-Friday). Over a period of 30 weeks in school, how many days in total would you expect Thomas to forget his homework diary?

04/04/2012

19