Sunteți pe pagina 1din 16

Great War, Civil War, and Recovery: Russias National Income, 1913 to 1928

Andrei Markevich
(New Economic School)

(Warwick and Hoover)

Mark Harrison

The last gap: 1913 to 1928


800% 400% 200% 100% 50% 25% 1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005

Gregory (1982)

Maddison (2010)
Harrison (1996)

Russian and Soviet GDP per head, 1885 to 2006

The last gap: 1913 to 1928


800% 400% 200% 100% 50% 25% 1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005
Gregory (1982) M&H Maddison (2010) Harrison (1996)

Russian and Soviet GDP per head, 1885 to 2006

Motivation
We need to fill the gap! Without this, we cannot answer important questions from Russian economic history
How effectively did alternative economic systems and government policies mobilize the economy in times of Great War and Civil War? At the end of two wars, just how bad was it? Given this, what was pace of postwar recovery under the New Economic Policy? When did the Soviet economy recover fully?

Implications beyond Russia: economics of wars, WWI in particular, and Civil wars in the past Difficult to analyze Russian/Soviet economic growth in the long run without the GDP series

Plan
Estimation issues Findings
Implications for Russian Economic History Russian 1913-1928 Experience in Comparison
Cross-country
Economics of WWI Civil wars of the past Post-war Recover

Over-time: Russian/Soviet crises in the 20th C.

Estimation issues
Borders
We have Soviet Union within interwar borders of 1925 to 1939 as primary territory for GDP and population in all years. Russian Empire excluding Poland and Finland, within borders of 1913, as secondary territory for GDP and population, 1913 to 1917 only.

Population
Reconstructed for the from censuses and vital statistics. Corrected on lines suggested by Vainshtein; Sifman; Andreev, Darskii, and Kharkova and Adametz

Estimation issues
GDP by sector of origin
Sectors: agriculture, large + small industry, construction, transport, civilian + military services. Physical production from official sources, mainly published in 1920s. Corrected as advised by Gukhman, Vainshtein, Wheatcroft, and others. Service sector output based on employment.

Prices
We use constant prices of 1913. Why not 1928, too? By 1928 Soviet markets were isolated from world trade. Relative prices were affected by government controls and subsidies; markets were in disequilibrium Branch shares in the Soviet economy in 1928 were nearly identical to those of the Russian economy in 1913.

Findings
200%

Per cent of 1913

100%

M&H Gukhman (1928) Gregory (1990) Gatrell (2005)

50%

Maddison (2010)

25% 1913

1918

1923

1928

Russian/Soviet GDP, new and old estimates

Implications for Russian Economic History


GDP/head 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 % of 1913 96% 98% 87% 77% 47% 41% 41% 37% % change -4.5% 3.4% -9.8% -11.2% -38.8% -13.7% 0.3% -8.6% Implications for Russian economic development during First World War
Russian economy operated reasonably well; by 1916 decline still less than 10 percent fuller credit for the military mobilization of 1914 through 1916 than previous estimates Two-thirds of decline came after the Revolution

Reflections on the War Communism and Civil War - output fell most precipitously before 1919 when the Red and White armies clashed most fiercely, i.e. should blame the policy of grain requisitions started in 1918 - by 1920, with a command economy in place, the Bolsheviks were able to stabilize the economy, but not at first to recover - 1921-1922 famine occurred after a series of very bad harvests, i.e. caused not by the weather shock only

Implications for Russian Economic History


GDP/head % of 1913 % change 1922/23 1923/24 1924/25 1925/26 1926/27 1927/28 50% 63% 15.1% 26.5% 24.9% 12.3% 4.1% 5.2%
Reflections on NEP Soviet GDP/head in 1928 fell short of 1913 by around 4 percent (agrees with Gregory, roughly ) Rate of recovery was dropping as 1928 approached despite the shortfall. Against Allens view that that the best development strategy for the Soviet economy would be the policy of the late NEP

79%
89% 92% 97%

Implications for five-year-plan era:


Soviet GDP/head remained below 1913 level until 1930 that imply a more pessimistic view on the achievements of the first five-year plan policy

Russian 1913-1928 Experience in Cross-Country comparison: WWI


120%

Total GDP in 1917, percent of 1913

110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Russia Turkey Finland Hungary
France Germany Austria Greece

UK

Belgium

5000

6000

GDP per head in 1913, international dollars and 1990 prices

Russian 1913-1928 Experience in Cross-Country comparison: Civil War


The consequences of Russias civil war were very severe in international comparison
Short run: Russia fared worse than either Spain or USA and equally worse to China. Long run: Most of the costs of civil war ... accrue after the war is over (Collier 2008).

Causes of Civil wars according to cross-country studies of Civil wars (Collier and Hoeffler 2007; Blattmann and Miguel 2010): a political constitution that restricted competition and participation, and several years of declining output Limited help to explain the start of the Civil War in Russia in that time

Russian 1913-1928 Experience in Cross-Country comparison: Recovery


180%

Total GDP in 1928, percent of 1913

160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 0 1000

Greece Finland Czechoslovakia Yugoslavia USSR Bulgaria Turkey Romania Hungary France Belgium UK

Germany Austria

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

GDP per head in 1913, international dollars and 1990 prices

Economically, the deepest trauma


800% 400%
Per cent of 1913

200% 100% 50%

Gregory M&H

Maddison
Harrison

25% 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Russian and Soviet GDP per head, 1885 to 2006

Russian/Soviet Crises in the 20th C. in comparisons


Change in personal consumption per head, per cent Great War-Civil War Great Breakthrough-Great Terror Great Patriotic War Post-Soviet transition -56% (1913-21) -14% (1930-32) -44% (1937-42) -38% (1990-94) Premature deaths, Million 13,0 6,0 28,6 (1914-23) (1932-34) (1937-47)

0.1-3.8 (1991-98)

Sources: Various. * Figure is for decline in national income.

Conclusion and perspective for further research


Reconstruction of the GDP series shed new lights on the Russian economic development during the first transition

Further research: the analysis of Russian/Soviet growth in the long-run is now possible
Did it follow a common trend? Were there any breaks? Were negative shocks of the WWs and the Great Breakthrough permanent or transitory?

S-ar putea să vă placă și