SOURCES OF DATA

• Demographic data cover:

– Demographic processes and events
• Demographic events include:
– Births, deaths, marriages, and divorce
– Sex, age, marital status, birthplace,
occupation and education
• Main sources of demographic data:
1. Census 2. Vital statistics 3. population
surveys

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 Census
• A census is a national enumeration of the
population at one point in time
• Censuses are:
– Expensive to undertake – takes years to plan
– Involve a large staff of field workers
– Takes years to compile and publish the results
• Aim of censuses – to establish size,
distribution and composition of the
population
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 Innovations and the census
• Virtual census
• CD Rom
• Geographical information systems
• Other geographic based mapping
• Statistical software – SPSS, SAS, PC-Edit
• Internet
– Have made census data accessible and
versatile
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 Main purposes of the census
• To determine electoral arrangements on the
basis of population
• To provide baseline data for planning and
administration
– Numbers and characteristics of people are important
in planning – monitoring the demand for schools,
housing, and health services, assessing the impact of
changes in the labour force and immigration,
undertaking market analysis of the demand
determining appropriate location for public amenities
and shopping centers
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 Census
• The census is also the chief source of
information on small areas and small
groups
• Two types of census:
– De facto census- counts everyone at the time
– De Jure – counts people where they usually
live

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 Limits of the Census
• Accuracy – info from self completed form or
short interview
• Privacy – content limited by considerations of
privacy laws – Prohibits intrusive questioning –
eg details of personal wealth, census files
cannot be linked to other databases, no
crosstabulations at the small area level
• Immediacy
• Coverage

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 Other Sources of Data
• Vital statistics System
– It collects information on individuals when
they experience the vital events – births,
marriage, or death
• Information collected can be quite
extensive – statistics on births include
details about the new born (sex, place of
birth), mother (age, birthplace, marital
status and occupation).
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 Surveys and Statistical
Information
Surveys
• Surveys supplement censuses and vital
statistics
• Surveys have become an increasingly important
source of data
Statistical Information
• Statistical agencies in different countries publish
statistics information such as Social Trends,
Statistical Abstracts, National Year Books
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 Data Quality
• Data coverage
• Data quality
• Examples of concerns about data coverage and
quality:
– Children born at home and died in infancy are often
not enumerated or registered
– Marriage – the omission of consensual or de facto
unions
– Migration or uncontrolled movement across borders
– Survey figures are subject to error too – findings may
not be representative of the general population
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 Cross-national data
• For comparative studies there are many major
sources:
– UN Demographic Yearbook – coverage on
population growth, birth and death rates, age
composition, urban and rural populations. Most
volumes contain extra info on fertility, mortality and
migration and census statistics.
– Population Trends and Prospects contain statistics
on population numbers, growth rates, birth and death
rates, life expectancy and other key indicators.
Projections have 3 ‘variants’ – high, medium and low.
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 Cross-national data
• Age and Sex Distribution of World
Populations
– Contain age structure data for countries,
world regions over the same period
• World Bank’s World Development
Report
• WHO’s World Health Statistics Annual
• Eurostat’s Demographic Statistics
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 Components of Change
• Data needed to study demographic
transition and trends through time:
– Births
– Deaths
– Census data on population totals
• Natural increase: the difference between
numbers of births and deaths
• Net migration = the difference between
arrivals and departures
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 Components of Change
• Population growth = natural increase
plus net migration
• Or
• Population growth = (births – deaths) +
(arrivals –departures)

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 Population growth
• It is the difference between population
totals at two dates
P2 – P1 = Population growth
– Where P1 is the initial population
– P2 is the end of the period
population
P2-P1 = (births – deaths) + (arrivals – departures)
P2 = P1 + (births – deaths) + (arrivals – departures)
The demographic balancing equation refers to
total numbers, rather than changes in growth rates
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 Population growth
• Total numbers are important for planning -
for the provisions of goods and services
depends on the number of customers or service
users

• To compare populations in different times and

places, rates and percentages are used to show
the relative pace, relative size of changes in
different population totals

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 Comparative Measures
• Demographic rates
– Rates are the most frequently used
comparative measures of population change
– Demographic rate show the relationship
between the number of demographic events
(numerator) and the population at risk
(denominator)
– Population at risk is the population that
could experience a particular event (giving
birth or migrating at a particular point in time).

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 Demographic rates
• The most convenient approximation to the
population at risk is the total population
at mid-year.
• Mid year is assumed to be the point by
which half the changes have occurred.
• When unavailable in published statistics,
the mid-year population may be calculated
as the mean or average of the population
at the start and end of the year.
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 Mid-year population
• Example of calculating the mid-year
population
– If the population on January 1 was 20,000
and on 31st December 40,000, each total
would produce very different rate
(P2 + P1)/2 = (20,000 + 40,000)/2 = 30,000

Rates are usually multiplied by 100 or 1000 to

produce figures greater than 1.
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 Other types of measures
• When the population at risk is unavailable,
a ratio is used.
• It expresses the size of a number relative
to another convenient number
• Eg sex ratio
– ((males/females) x 100)
• Denominators are selected according to
the availability of data and ease of
understanding
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 Comparative measures -
• Also used in comparative studies are
proportions and percentages.
• A proportion is a ratio in which the
denominator includes the numerator.
Proportions are part of one whole ie
fractions – ratio are often multiplied by 100
to produce percentages

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 Comparative measures -
• Probability another comparative measure
ranges between 0 and 1. A probability is
the ratio of events in a fixed period of time
to the initial population at risk.

• In demography probabilities are always

based on the initial population

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 Comparative Measures
• Probability example
– The probability of dying at age 80 is based on
the number of people who celebrated their
80th birthday (initial population)
– If 2000 women reached their 80th birthday and
800 of them died before reaching 81, their
probability of dying at age 80 is :
800/2000 = 0.4

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 Basic measures of change
Crude birth and death rates
– These are basic measures of population
change used in assessing population growth
– CDR and CBR are based on the total
population growth and its components
– They are called crude because they are
unrefined with regards to the population at
risk
– These measures are used in the DT allowing
countries to be compared
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 Basic measures of change
• CBR = number of live births in a year x 1000
mid-year population

• CDR = number of deaths in a year x 1000

mid-year population

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 Basic measures of change
Factors that affect their calculation and
interpretation:
– Crude rates ignore sub-groups – eg in LDCs more
deaths in 0-1 age category
– Crude rates are calculated for calendar years
– Age structure can have substantial effect on crude
rates. Eg in LDCs have high proportion of young
people and therefore low crude death rates
– Standardization techniques are employed to remove
the influence of age structure

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Rates of natural increase and net
migration
• From CDR and CBR is derived the (crude)
rate of natural increase (RNI). It is the
difference between them
• RNI = CBR – CDR
• Or
• Rate of natural increase
= births – deaths in a year x k
Mid-year population
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 Rate of and net migration
• Where international migration is not important, natural
increase is the only source of growth
• Most Polynesian and some Micronesian countries are
affected by migration
• At sub-national level, net migration is often the major
component of population change, - shown in growth and
decline of villages, rural settlements, cities, suburbs and
towns
• Rate of net Migration is based on mid-year population
• RNM = net migration x k
• Mid-Year population
• k = 1000 or 100
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