Jos Ignacio Torreblanca European Council on Foreign Relations Madrid Office jitorreblanca@ecfr.

eu

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The fragmentation of European power MIR 2011

When the BRICs go catching up

Europe progressively fading away

Bye, bye Europe

Surprise, surprise

Already lost half of its population

It will continue losing

The trend is clear

Demand for Europe

Except for some places, EU image is not that bad.

BBC World Survey 2010 http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pipa/pdf/apr10/BBCViews_Apr10_rpt.pdf

But trust in Europe as a world power is low

In fact, much better than the US

No country wants more US influence and less EU.

- US influence + EU influence

+ US influence + EU influence

- US influence - EU influence

+ US influence - EU influence

BBC World Survey 2005 23 countries. http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/incl/printable_version.php?pnt=335

Each region has its natural leader

Each continent has a potential regional leader who is welcomed by its neighbour. In Europe, the EU competes with Russia. Should the EU link with IBSA? (India, Brazil and South Africa?)

The rise of herbivorous power: The Voice of the People 2007. 57.000 people polled in

Population is in Asia
China and India alone are 40% of worlds population

Source: World Mapper 2002

But power is still in the West

Source: World Mapper 2002

Europe is still and economic power

12

10

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook

Gross domestic product in current billion dollars (2005)

The US, EU-27 and Japan account for 73% of worlds output with only 14% of the population. Europe is one third of worlds ouptut, with only 7% of the population

Percentage of world output

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook 2010

And even some of its member states

2010
12

10

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook

EU-27 Still the largest trading partner

US military hypertrophia

But Europe toos spends quite a lot

2006, in USD billion dollars

World US EU-27 Rest China Russia Japan India

950 466 207 102 65 50 41,7 19

Source: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm

No bang for the buck

Europes Afghan surge

Europes hard power

Quite a few diplomats

Lots of embassies, poor results

CHR 2005 and HRC 2006-2008

Voting coincidence in the UN

First donor of aid

2006, in million dollars, current prices
Europes is largest donor, but only 1/6, half of US is earmarked as EU. What is the return of this?

Source: EU http://fs2.bbj.it/EUDA_01.aspx

Free-riding the EU brand,

Source Eurostat, Europe in the world 2010, p.55

Suiza pudo ganar la Copa Amrica

Y el panda inventarse un falso pulgar