Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining

Evgueni Smirnov

Outline
Data Flood Definition of Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining Possible Tasks:
Classification Task Regression Task Clustering Task Association-Rule Task

Data Flood

Trends Leading to Data Flood

Moores law
Computer Speed doubles every 18 months

Storage law
total storage doubles every 9 months

As a result: More data is captured:

Storage technology faster and cheaper DBMS capable of handling bigger DB

Trends Leading to Data Flood

More data is generated:
Business:
Supermarket chains Banks, Telecoms, E-commerce, etc.

Web Science:
astronomy, physics, biology, medicine etc.

Consequence
Very little data will ever be looked at by a human, and thus, we need to automate the process of Knowledge Discovery to make sense and use of data.

Definition of Knowledge Discovery

Knowledge Discovery in Data is non-trivial process of identifying
valid novel potentially useful and ultimately understandable patterns in data.

from Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, Fayyad, Piatetsky-Shapiro, Smyth, and Uthurusamy, (Chapter 1), AAAI/MIT Press 1996.

Related Fields
Machine Learning
Visualization

Knowledge Discovery

Statistics

Databases

Knowledge-Discovery Methodology
Knowledge
Data Mining is searching for patterns of interest in a particular representation. Transformed data Patterns

Target data

Processed data

Interpretation Evaluation Data Mining

data

Selection

Transformation Preprocessing & feature selection & cleaning

Data-Mining Tasks
Classification Task Regression Task Clustering Task Association-Rule Task

Classification Task
Given: a collection of instances (training set)
Each instances is represented by a set of attributes, one of the attributes is the class attribute.

Find: a classifier for the class attribute as a function of the values of other attributes. Goal: previously unseen instances should be assigned a class as accurately as possible.

Example 1
Tid Refund Marital Status 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10

Taxable Income Cheat 125K 100K 70K 120K No No No No Yes No

10

Refund Marital Status No Yes No Yes No No Single Married Married

Taxable Income Cheat 75K 50K 150K ? ? ? ? ? ?

Yes No No Yes No No Yes No No No

Single Married Single Married

Divorced 90K Single Married 40K 80K

Divorced 95K Married 60K

Divorced 220K Single Married Single 85K 75K 90K

No Yes No Yes

Test Set

Training Set

Learn Classifier

Classifier

Example 2
Fraud Detection
Goal: Predict fraudulent cases in credit card transactions. Approach:
Use credit card transactions and the information on its account-holder as attributes.
When does a customer buy, what does he buy, how often he pays on time, etc

Label past transactions as fraud or fair transactions. This forms the class attribute. Learn a model for the class of the transactions. Use this model to detect fraud by observing credit card transactions on an account.

Regression Task
Predict a value of a given continuous valued variable based on the values of other variables, assuming a linear or nonlinear model of dependency.
Examples: Predicting sales amounts of new product based on advertising expenditure. Predicting wind velocities as a function of temperature, humidity, air pressure, etc. Time series prediction of stock market indices.

Clustering Task
Given a set of data points, each having a set of attributes, and a similarity measure among them, find clusters such that:
Data points in one cluster are more similar; Data points in separate clusters are less similar. Intra-cluster distances are minimized Inter-cluster distances are maximized

Example
Market Segmentation:
Goal: subdivide a market into distinct subsets of customers where any subset may conceivably be selected as a market target to be reached with a distinct marketing mix. Approach:
Collect different attributes of customers based on their geographical and lifestyle related information. Find clusters of similar customers. Measure the clustering quality by observing buying patterns of customers in same cluster vs. those from different clusters.

Association-Rule Task
Given a set of records each of which contain some number of items from a given collection;
Produce dependency rules which will predict occurrence of an item based on occurrences of other items.
TID Items

1 2 3 4 5

Bread, Coke, Milk Beer, Bread Beer, Coke, Diaper, Milk Beer, Bread, Diaper, Milk Coke, Diaper, Milk

Rules Discovered:
Milk --> Coke Diaper, Milk --> Beer

Example
Supermarket shelf management.
Goal: To identify items that are bought together by sufficiently many customers. Approach: Process the point-of-sale data collected with barcode scanners to find dependencies among items. A classic rule - If a customer buys diaper and milk, then he is very likely to buy beer. So, dont be surprised if you find six-packs stacked next to diapers!

Course Overview
Processed data

Interpretation Evaluation Data Mining

data

Selection

Transformation Preprocessing & feature selection & cleaning

Monday:

Decision Trees and Decision Rules (E. Smirnov)

Course Overview
Processed data

Interpretation Evaluation Data Mining

data

Selection

Transformation Preprocessing & feature selection & cleaning

Tuesday:

Evaluation of learning models (E. Smirnov) Feature selection and extraction (L. van der Maaten)

Course Overview
Processed data

Interpretation Evaluation Data Mining

data

Selection

Transformation Preprocessing & feature selection & cleaning

Wednesday:

Neural Networks (E. Postma) Clustering (P. Spronck)

Course Overview
Processed data

Interpretation Evaluation Data Mining

data

Selection

Transformation Preprocessing & feature selection & cleaning

Thursday:

Instance learning and Bayesian learning (E. Smirnov) Association Rules (E. Smirnov)

Course Overview
Processed data

Interpretation Evaluation Data Mining

data

Selection

Transformation Preprocessing & feature selection & cleaning

Thursday:

Support Vector Machines (G. Nalbantov)