Instructor & Tutor: Kathy Ning Shen, PhD

Agenda
Sampling techniques and sampling error Sample size determination Field work and data collection

Sampling techniques
What are available sampling techniques?
What are the rationale for each technique?

Sampling error? And how to deal with it?

The Sampling Design Process

Define the Population Determine the Sampling Frame Select Sampling Technique(s) Determine the Sample Size Execute the Sampling Process

Types of sampling
Probability sampling: Elements in the population have a known probability of being selected as samples. Major type: simple random sampling. Used when generalizeability is important. Non-probability sampling: Used when generalizeability is NOT important. Major type: Convenience sample.


A researcher has the task of estimating how many units of a new, revolutionary photocopy machine (it does not require ink cartridges and is guaranteed not to jam) will be purchased by business firms in Cleveland, Ohio for the upcoming annual sales forecast. She is going to ask about their likelihood of purchasing the new device, and for those very likely to purchase, she wants respondents to estimate how many machines their company will buy. She has data that will allow her to divide the companies into small, medium, and large firms based on number of employees at the Cleveland office.

Sampling Error
Nonsampling error: pertains to all sources of error other than sample selection method and sample size Sampling error: involves sample selection and sample size

Sample Accuracy
Sample accuracy: refers to how close a random samples statistic is to the true populations value it represents Important points:

Sample size is not related to representativeness Sample size is related to accuracy

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Sample Size and Accuracy

Intuition: Which is more accurate: a large probability sample or a small probability sample? The larger a probability sample is, the more accurate it is (less sample error).

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How to Interpret Sample Accuracy

From a report

The sample is accurate 7% at the 95% level of confidence

From a news article

The accuracy of this survey is 7%

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How to Interpret Sample Accuracy

Interpretation

Finding: 60% are aware of our brand So between 53% (60%-7%) and 67% (60%+7%) of the entire population is aware of our brand

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Sample Size (Non-technical)

Does the population size directly affect the size the of sample? The larger the sample size, the higher the confidence (smaller values of p) The larger the variance (difference amongst subjects), the lower the confidence. Larger variance requires a larger sample size to achieve the same level of confidence.

Sample Size Axioms

In almost all cases, the accuracy (sampling error) of a probability sample is independent of the size of the population. A probability sample can be a very tiny percentage of the population size and still be very accurate (have little sample error). The size of a random sample depends on the client's desired accuracy balanced against the cost of data collection for that sample size.
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Sample Size and Population Size

Where is N (size of the population) in

determination formula?

the sample size

Population Size
10,000 100,000 1,000,000 100,000,000

e=3% Sample Size

____ 1,067 ____ 1,067 ____ 1,067 ____ 1,067

e=4% Sample Size

____ 600 ____ 600 ____ 600 ____ 600

In almost all cases, the accuracy (sample error) of a probability sample is independent of the size of the population.

 Does the size of the population, N, affect sample size or sample error? Population e=3% Sample Sample as % of Size Size Population
10,000 100,000 1,000,000 100,000,000 1,067 1,067 1,067 1,067 1% 0.1% 0.01% 0.0001%

A probability sample size can be a very tiny percentage of the population size and still be very accurate (have little sample error).

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Putting It All Together MR What level of accuracy do you want?

MM I dont have a clue. MR National opinion polls use 3.5%. The size to me. MM Sounds good of a probability sample depends need MR Okay, that means weon the a sample of 1,200. clients desired accuracy MM Gee Whiz. That small? (acceptable sample error) MR Yup, and at a cost of $20 per completion, it will be $24,000. balanced against the cost of data collection for that MM Holy Cow! That much? sample size. MR I could do 500 for $10,000, and that would be 4.4% accurate, or 300 for $6,000 at 5.7%. MM 500 sounds good to me.
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Putting It All Together

There is only one method of determining sample size that allows the researcher to PREDETERMINE the accuracy of the sample results

The Confidence Interval Method of Determining Sample Size

Typical Scenario:
Assuming a confidence level of 95%, precision level of 10$ and a standard deviation of $100, what should be the sample size to determine the average monthly household expenditure on product X?


Sample error formula:

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Computations Help Page

1.96

ez

Lets try 3 ns
1000 500 100

pq n

50 times 50

Answers this way

Computations Help Page 1.96

ez
Lets try 3 ns
1000 500 100

pq n

50 times 50

3.1% 4.4% 9.8%

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Review: What does sample accuracy mean?

95% Accuracy

Calculate your samples finding, p% Calculate your samples accuracy, e% You will be 95% confident that the population percentage () lies between p% e%
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Review: What does sample accuracy mean?

Example

Sample size of 1,000 Finding: 40% of respondents like our brand Sample accuracy is 3% (via our formula) So 37% - 43% like our brand
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Sample Size Formula

Standard sample size formula for estimating a percentage:

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Practice Examples
We will do some examples from the questions and exercises at the end of the chapter on sample sizequestion 5 on page 396.

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Practical Considerations in Sample Size Determination

How to:
Estimate variability (p times q) in the population Determine the amount of desired sample error Determine the amount of desired sample error Decide on the level of confidence desired
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 Estimating a mean requires a different formula (See MRI 13.1, p. 412.) Z is determined the same way (1.96 or 2.58) S: variability indicated by an estimated standard deviation Since we are estimating a mean, we can assume that our data are either interval or ratio. When we have interval or ratio data, the standard deviation, s, may be used as a measure of variance. How to estimate s Estimate the range the value you are estimating can take on (minimum and maximum value) and divide the range by 6.
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Estimating a Mean

Estimating the Mean of a Population

Example

What is the required sample size?

Management wants to know customers level of satisfaction with their service. They propose conducting a survey and asking for satisfaction on a scale from 1 to 10. (since there are 10 possible answers, the range=10).
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Estimating the Mean of a Population

Example

Management wants to be 99% confident in the results and they do not want the allowed error to be more than .5 scale points. What is n?

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Estimating a Mean: What is n?

S=10/6 or 1.7 Z=2.58 (99% confidence) e=.5 scale points What is n?

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Special Sample Size Determination Situations

Sampling from small populations: Small population: sample exceeds 5% of total population size Finite multiplier: adjustment factor for sample size formula See the formula on page 419.

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Nonsampling Error in Marketing Research

Nonsampling error includes: All types of nonresponse error Data gathering errors Data handling errors Data analysis errors Interpretation errors
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Data Collection Errors

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Nonresponse Error
Nonresponse: failure on the part of a prospective respondent to take part in a survey or to answer specific questions on the survey Response rate enumerates the percentage of the total sample with which the interviews were completed CASRO response rate formula:

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Nonresponse Error
CASRO response rate formula:

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Unreliable Responses
Unreliable responses are found when conducting questionnaire screening, and an inconsistent or unreliable respondent may need to be eliminated from the sample.

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Tutorial Activities
Exercise on sample size determination Share focus group results Work on the questionnaire