Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
P.1
Emerging Managers do have occasional periods of relative underperformance to established managers , typically after crisis periods, however the drawdowns associated with Emerging Managers are also lower.
1
2285
2000
1500
1000
874
500
0
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
P.4
2
1735
2000
1500
0
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
P.4
3
1533
776
2000
1500
0
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
P.5
100
100 99.84%
80
60
40
20
Periods of Relative underperformance to Established Managers
0
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-20
P.3
Data from 31-Jan-93 to 31-Mar-12 Skew Kurt -0.26 1.79 -0.44 1.37 -0.13 1.34 -0.46 1.67 0.00 0.94 -0.42 1.68 0.34 0.78 -0.40 1.63 0.41 0.56 -0.40 1.67 -0.38 1.59 HPR 1533% 711% 1735% 801% 2285% 874% 2636% 963% 2941% 1016% 1086% Years 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 CAGR Alpha 15.61% 4.13% 11.49% 16.32% 4.22% 12.10% 17.91% 5.36% 12.55% 18.76% 5.69% 13.06% 19.41% 6.06% 13.35% 13.71%
Emerging Established Emerging Established Emerging Established Emerging Established Emerging Established All
P.7
Key Statistics: HPR CAGR Annual Return Annual SD Skew Kurtosis Worst Month Best Month % Pos % Neg Max Drawdown VaR ( Normal ) VaR ( Modified ) VaR ( Best Fit ) CVaR ( Normal ) CVaR ( Modified ) CVaR ( Best Fit )
Best Fit VaR -1.79% Best Fit VaR -2.17% Best Fit CVaR -3.17% Best Fit CVaR -2.95%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
This chart shows the Best Fit distributions of the Fund and the Benchmarks. Its is demonstrating the Upside Potential or Shortfall of the Fund Relative to the chosen Benchmarks.
P.10
-13.73%
P.11
ec -9 3 D ec -9 4 D ec -9 5 D ec D 96 ec -9 7 D ec -9 8 D ec -9 9 D ec -0 0 D ec D 01 ec -0 2 D ec -0 3 D ec -0 4 D ec -0 5 D ec D 06 ec -0 7 D ec -0 8 D ec -0 9 D ec -1 0 D ec -1 1
P.12
ec -9 3 D ec -9 4 D ec -9 5 D ec -9 6 D ec -9 7 D ec -9 8 D ec -9 9 D ec D 00 ec -0 1 D ec -0 2 D ec -0 3 D ec -0 4 D ec -0 5 D ec -0 6 D ec -0 7 D ec -0 8 D ec -0 9 D ec -1 0 D ec -1 1
After 16 months the 21.19% of Funds whose AUM > $100M have an average AUM of $131m
AUM $m
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
% Achieving AUM
21.19%
15.27%
11.68%
30%
Returns ( Annualised )
8.52%
Age in Months
P.2
Note: This study is independent of time in that we pose the question as How does a manager perform during his/her first 36 months irrespective of when they occur
1200
1000
800
400
200
P.12
19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11
P.12
P.12
Supporting Literature
Emerging managers have particularly strong financial incentives to create performance and may be more nimble than established ones. We find strong evidence of outperformance during the first two or three years of existence. Emerging managers, narrowly defined as having a maximum life of two years, generate an abnormal performance of 2.3% relative to the later years. This difference is statistically and economically significant. Aggarwal and Jorion - The Performance of Emerging Hedge Fund Managers Young funds outperform seasoned funds after adjustment for risk of failure. Investors should buy young funds in the first three years of their existence. Michael Howell, Managing Director, Crossborder Capital - The Young Ones
Emerging managers, defined as managers with less than a two year track record, exhibit compelling absolute return profiles and have typically outperformed the overall hedge fund market.
HFR Asset Management - Emerging Manager Out-Performance: Our conclusion is that despite the biases found in the data, investors may gain enhanced returns by investing in young hedge funds if proper due diligence is completed. Hedge funds under three years of age tend to perform better than do older hedge funds without necessarily adding to the volatility of returns. Lazard Asset Management - Early Performance In Hedge Fund Managers From Jan. 1, 2004, through Dec. 31, 2005, 167 "emerging managers" those who started funds in 2003 and had $30 million to $250 million in assets outperformed two leading hedge fund indexes. The class of 2003, or the 167 managers measured on an equal-weighted basis, returned 11.39 percent in 2004, compared with the MSCI equal-weighted index, at 6.55 percent, and the Credit Suisse/Tremont investable index, at 5.31 percent. Mayer & Hoffman Capital Advisors - Investing in Newer Hedge Funds P.21
http://www.scribd.com/peter_urbani/d/84414826-Opalesque-New-Managers-Feb-2012
http://www.scribd.com/peter_urbani/d/86519461-Opalesque-New-Managers-March-2012 http://www.scribd.com/peter_urbani/d/91429400-Opalesque-New-Managers-April-2012 http://www.scribd.com/peter_urbani/d/94991537-Opalesque-New-Managers-May-2012
P.21
Important Notes
The information contained herein (the "information") is intended for illustrative purposes only, has been developed internally and has been based on variations of existing funds, managed accounts, simulations, extrapolations of other investment programs, pro forma data or taken from trade and statistical services and other sources that we deem reliable, although no warranty is made that the information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. The information is not intended to depict or predict actual investment performance of any financial product and is subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein reflect Infiniti Capitals judgment at the date and time hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information should not be construed as legal, tax, investment or other advice. This does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any product. An offer may only be made by means of the offering memorandum and governing documents of the relevant funds (the "Fund Documents"), which should be read in their entirety. The information is not intended to be complete or final and is qualified in its entirety by the Fund Documents. In the event the Information is inconsistent or contrary to the descriptions or terms of the Fund Documents, the terms of the Fund Documents shall prevail. Interests in the funds are privately offered to investors who satisfy the eligibility criteria described in the Fund Documents. The Information is CONFIDENTIAL. It is intended only for the use of the person to whom this document is given and may not be reproduced or redistributed. Any securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Transactions of the type described herein may involve a high degree of risk, and the value of such instruments may be highly volatile. Past performance is not guarantee of, and cannot be construed as an indication of, future results.
P.22