CESI Presentation First Phase

Feasibility Study for the Kosovo B (KS) Kashar (AL) 400 kV Transmission Interconnection Project
ENERGY SECTOR TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT KOSOVO ESTAP II/1

WORLD BANK Grant No. H048
Overall Objective of Kosovo Albania 400 kV Interconnection Line

Impact of a strong interconnection between two complementary Kosovo (thermal) and Albanian (predominantly hydro) systems:
Allow for realizing an optimal short-term and medium-term generation
dispatch optimization of the hydrologic and thermal resources;

Improve reliability of electricity supply as a result of increase of generator availability, decrease of the power risk to cover the peak for the Kosovo and of the water or energy risk for Albania.
Reduce the investments in installed generating capacity in both

systems. Increase exchanges and transactions of electricity on the Region contributing to the development of the SEEREM Realize important cost saving in operation through joint and coordinating operations of both power systems
Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative
Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2
Technical Economic Comparison of Alternatives of Kosovo Albania 400 kV Interconnection Line
Objective of the Study

To perform technical and economic comparison of all proposed interconnection variants and sub-variants To make recommendations regarding the selection of the preferred variant of 400 kV interconnection line.
The selected variant will be analyzed in detail during the second phase of the study
Methodology for the first phase of the project

Least cost Generation Plan KOSOVO Export-oriented Generation IPP KOSOVO Transmission System Master Plan KOSOVO
Forecasted Demands KOSOVO
Definition of Scenarios of power transfers between KOSOVO - ALBANIA
Scenarios of Regional transits North -South KOSOVO Scenarios of Regional transits East - West KOSOVO Transmission System Master Plan ALBANIA
Forecasted Demands ALBANIA
Least cost Generation Plan ALBANIA
First phase (3 months) Network studies (L-f, Loadability, TTC and ATC, etc.) for technical and economical comparison of interconnection Alternatives. Selection of variant of new 400 kV line between KOSOVO - ALBANIA
Review of Electricity Demand and Supply Development
Development of Electrical Energy Demand Kosovo 2000 2020
Development of Peak System Load Kosovo 2000 - 2020
Development of Electricity Generation in Kosovo

Analysed Scenarios
Scenario I: LC generation plan from ESTAP I- MGS; Scenario II: New TPP Kosovo B3 (2012) and B4 (2013); Scenario III: Rehabilitation of Kosovo A5 (2007), A4 (2008) and A3 (2009) and new TPP Kosovo B3 (2012) and B4 (2013); Scenario IV: Rehabilitation of Kosovo A5 (2007), A4 (2008) and A3 (2009) and new TPP Kosovo B3 (2012), B4(2013), B5 (2016) and B6 (2017). Scenario V: New TPP Kosovo B35 (2012) and B45 (2013); Scenario VI: Rehabilitation of Kosovo A5 (2007), A4 (2008) and A3 (2009) and new TPP Kosovo B35 (2012) and B45 (2013); Scenario VII: Rehabilitation of Kosovo A5 (2007), A4 (2008) and A3 (2009) and new TPP Kosovo B35 (2012), B45 (2013) and B55 (2016)
Development of Electricity Generation in Kosovo
Electrical Energy Balance Scenario II New TPP 2x340 (no Kosovo A rehabilitation)
Electrical Energy Balance Scenario III New TPP 2x340 and Kosovo A rehabilitation
Electrical Energy Balance Scenario Scenario VII New TPP 3x500 and Kosovo A rehabilitation
ENERGY & PEAK LOAD FORECAST Albania 2002-2015
Development of the generation Albania 2003-2015
Daily Peak Load of Kosovo & Albanian Power Systems
Year 2003
Review of studies on the SEE Region related to the Project
Studies on the SEE Region related to the Project

Energy Sector Technical Assistance Project ESTAP, WB study 2002
Albania Energy Sector Study, World Bank Project 2003 Pre-feasibility study report Interconnection line 400 kV between Kosovo and Albania 2001 Regional Study on Electricity Supply and Demand in South-East Europe (2002-2012), Decon 2003 Feasibility Study of 400 kV Transmission line Elbasan Tirana Podgorica, Fichtner, 2001 (Updated 2003) Review of Electricity Supply and demand in SEE. EKC Belgrade, 2004 Electricity Supply for Kosovo - Medium to Long Term Strategy, 2001 Kosovo Electric Power System Development Strategy, Energy Strategy and Policy Committee, 2002
Energy and Peak Load on SEE

Montenegro
Montenegro
950 900
5,500
5,000
GWh
850
MW
4,500
800 750
4,000 2000
Montenegro GWh
2005
2010 Year
2015
2020
700 2000
2005
2010 Year Montenegro MW
2015
2020
Montenegro GWh
Expon. (Montenegro GWh)
Montenegro MW
Expon. (Montenegro MW)
Macedonia
Macedonia
11,000 10,000
2,500 2,000
MW
GWh
9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 2000

Macedonia GWh
1,500 1,000 500 0 2000
2005
2010 Year
2015
Expon. (Macedonia GWh)
2020
2005
2010 Year
Macedonia MW
2015
2020
Macedonia GWh
Macedonia MW
Expon. (Macedonia MW)
Energy and Peak Load on SEE

Bosnia 16,000 15,000 14,000
2,500 2,400 2,300
Bosnia
GWh
MW
13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 2000

Bos&Herz GWh
2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 2000
2005
2010 Year
2015
2020
2005
2010 Year
Bos&Herz MW
2015
2020
Bos&Herz GWh
Expon. (Bos&Herz GWh)
Bos&Herz MW
Expon. (Bos&Herz MW)
Serbia
37,000 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 2000
Serbia
6,000 5,900 5,800 5,700 5,600 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 2000
GWh
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year Serbia GWh Expon. (Serbia GWh) Serbia GWh Expon. (Serbia GWh)
MW
2005
2010 Year
2015
2020
Serbia MW
Serbia MW
Expon. (Serbia MW)
SEE Transmission Network
Capability of Interconnection Transmission Lines

1000 MW 510 MW 1000MW
510 MW
1000 MW 510 MW
250 MW 250 MW 125 MW 125 MW
644 MW 510 MW
Natural Power flow circulation on SEE Interconnection Lines Year 2010
220 MW
PRESENT SITUATION Energy Transits 2000-2004
2,966 GWh
1,848 GWh
880 GWh
Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2
PRESENT SITUATION Power Transits 2000-2004

823 MW
729 MW
525 MW
Review of the exchanges in the period 2000-2003

Main exporters: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria and Romania Other countries: net importers WB study: 4.5 GW capacity required to meet incremental demand to 2010 plus rehabilitation of same order
MW
Winter balance year 2000 - 2003

800 600 400 200 0 Alb -200 -400 -600 -800 Power System Kos Mon Bos Ser Mac Gre Bul Rom 2000 2001 2002 2003 Aver
Summer balance year 2000 - 2003

800
Capacity deficit in Macedonia, Montenegro

Summer peak in Greece Need for new interconnections
MW
600
400 2000 200 2001 2002 0 Alb -200 Kos Mon Bos Ser Mac Gre Bul Rom 2003 Aver
-400
-600 Power System
Variant V1: The 400 kV interconnection line Kosovo B (KS) Kashar (Tirana)
K OS OVO B
Section Kosovo B Albanian border: Single circuit 400 kV line
7 8 km
Length 78 km;
Conductors: 2 x 490/65 mm2 ACSR horizontal bundle
215 km
137 k m
Section Albanian border - Kashar: Single circuit 400 kV line
TIRA NE
Length 137 km; Conductors: 2 x 490/65 mm2 ACSR horizontal bundle
Variant V21: The 400 kV interconnection line Peje Vau Dejes - Kashar (Tirana)
Section Peja Albanian border: Single circuit 400 kV line
Length 30 km;
Conductors: 2 x 490/65 mm2 ACSR horizontal bundle Section Albanian border Vau Dejes: Single circuit 400 kV line Length 85 km; Conductors: 2 x 490/65 mm2 ACSR horizontal bundle Section Vau Dejes Kashar: Double circuit 400 kV line Length 78 km; Conductors: 2 x 490/65 mm2 ACSR
Variant V22: The 400 kV interconnection line Kosovo B Vau Dejes - Kashar (Tirana)
Length 75 km;
Variant V23: The 400 kV interconnection line Kosovo B (Prizren) Vau Dejes - Kashar (Tirana)
Length 96 km;
Scenarios of Power Exchanges

Inter-regional, North South and East West power exchanges scenarios have been developed based on investigation of the future generation development of power systems in SEE Region and possible future market expectations Two main Scenarios: Scenario A: Only natural power-flow circulation. Scenario B: For each target year a Table of bilateral transactions as 24 h base load: Expected total power transits in 2005 of about 750 MW; Expected total power transits in 2010 of about 1000 MW; Expected total power transits in 2015 of about 1500 MW; Expected total power transits in 2020 of about 3000 MW.
Transmission Network Model

The northwestern UCTE, CENTREL are represented by an equivalent multipole. The main 400 kV and 220 (150/110) kV transmission systems of following countries are considered: Slovenian power system Croatian power system Bosnian power system Serbia power system; Montenegro power system Romanian power system
Bulgarian power system

Greek power system Macedonian power system.
Interconnection Lines on SEE Region
Computer model of 400 kV Transmission Network
Load Model for Multiple Load-Flow Analysis

The shapes of 52 normalized weakly load curves are analyzed and four clusters are individuated Weekly Load Duration Curves (WLDC) For each WLDC 30 time intervals with variable length are defined for a approximation
2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165
Cluster 2 Cluster 2 Approximation
Approximation of Weekly Load Duration Curve (Year 2010 Cluster 2)

2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Definition of Hydro-Thermal Generation Dispatch

Ad-hoc Optimal Dispatch program was set up for Albanian and Kosovo to calculate scheduled energy production Technical and security inequality constraints are : Balance of active power; Constraints on active generation of units; Constraints on thermo-power production; Constraints on hydro-power production;
Evaluation of the Loadability of the new interconnection line
Hourly Power Exchanges between Kosovo-Albania Year 2005

450 MW
520 MW
Loadability of Interconnection Lines Year 2005
Generation dispatch of thermo-hydro resources is not possible due to network congestions on the region and on interconnection lines of Albania Power and energy transaction of the third countries in the region have a strong impact on the available transfer capabilities between two power systems.
Year 2010 Energy Balance in Kosovo & Albania
Power Exchanges among SEE Countries Winter 2010

530 MW
690 MW
Analyzed Variants of new 400 kV tie-line

Variant 1: 400 kV line Kosovo B Kashar (route Prishtina Prizren Burrel Tirana) Variant V2: 400 kV interconnection line Tirana -- Vau DejesKosovo: Sub-variant V21: Peja III Kashar (route Peja - Deani - Fierze Vau Dejes - Tirana) Sub-variant V22: Kosovo B Kashar (route Kosovo B -Morini Fierze - Vau Dejes - Tirana)
Sub-variant V23: Kosovo B Kashar (route Kosovo B PrizrenMorini - Fierze - V Deja - Tirana)
Variant V3: The line Skopje (FYROM) - Elbasan (AL) Variant V4: No new interconnection line
Variant V1 Estimated Annual Energy Transfers
New Line
New Line
New Line
New Line
New Line
Line Overload
Estimated Curtailed Annual Energy not delivered from Kosovo to Albania is 197 GWh due to line overloads
Year 2010 Comparison of Variants
Power Exchanges among SEE Countries Summer 2015

820 MW
470 MW
Variant 1 Energy Transits on Interconnection Lines
New Line
New Line
New Line
New Line
Line fully loaded Pmax = 718 MW New Line
Line fully loaded
Estimated Curtailed Annual Energy not delivered from Kosovo to Albania is 1,147 GWh
Power Exchanges among SEE Countries Winter 2020

930 MW
700 MW
New Line
New Line
New Line
New Line
New Line

Estimated Curtailed Annual Energy not delivered from Kosovo to Albania is 1,716 GWh
Period 2010-2020 Comparison of Variants New Line Loadability
Period 2010-2020 Comparison of Variants Role of New Line in Albania
Period 2010-2020 Comparison of Variants Role of New Line in SEE Region
Steady State Analysis Variant V1 Year 2010
Determination of Net Transfer Capability between Kosovo & Albania
Definition of TTC and ATC

ETSO definition of the transfer capabilities: Total Transfer Capacity (TTC) Net Transfer Capacity (NTC = TTC TRM) Available Transfer Capacity (ATC = NTC AAC) Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM) and Already Allocated Capacity (AAC)
Methodology of Computing NTC

Problem : How much incremental power transfer from Kosovo to
Albania will the transmission network of the interconnected system supports given a set of base case network conditions and a set of contingencies?
Methodology: Definition of a base case Base Scheduled Transfers Specification of contingencies Determination of network response Finding of the maximum transfer: a LP optimization problem formulation using the Power Transfer Distribution Factors (PTDF) is applied to determine the maximum transfer that satisfies the thermal criteria. Post-processing and determination of TRM
Methodology of Computing NTC

Definition of a base case. It consists in forecasted condition and planned configuration of the network.
Base Scheduled Transfers
Year 2010 V4 Power Flow Distribution Factors

15
34 100 33 15
100
Year 2010 V1 Power Flow Distribution Factors

9
21 100 9 38 21
100
Total and Net Transfer Capabilities Year 2005 and 2010
Reduction of NTC
Total and Net Transfer Capabilities Year 2015 and 2020
Ranking of Variants according to NTC
Cost Estimation of Interconnection 400 kV Line
Cost Estimation of 400 kV Line

The capital costs of the project comprise:
Cost of equipment and components related with manufacture, transport to site and local transport. For line are included the cost of conductors, shield wires, towers, insulators strings, accessories, etc. For the line bays are included costs of circuit breakers, disconnecting switches, busbars, accessories, etc. Civil works necessary for construction of the line or substation, such as access roads, foundations, buildings and related works. Costs for erection and installation and commissioning. Costs necessary for land acquisition, Right-of-Way (R.O.W) and compensation. Costs related with preparatory works necessary for the line and substation construction and operation.
Estimated Total Cost of Variants
Economic evaluation of different Variants
Criteria and assumption for economic evaluation

The minimum NPV method is applied considering:
The annuity of the investment cost of the new line; Amount of fixed O & M costs of the new added facilities; The annual benefits resulting from its integration in the system. Annual benefits directly attributed to introduction of the new line : Without the new interconnection (Variant V4); With the new interconnection (Variant V1 V3). Benefit on transmission losses Energy Losses Power Losses
Criteria and assumption for economic evaluation

Benefit on transmission losses Energy Losses Power Losses
Benefit from CB Trade
NPV of different Variants of the new 400 kV line
Technical Economic comparison of all alternatives
Methodology for Technical-Economic comparison

The following technical performance indicators are considered
Loadability Volume of annual electric Energy Exchanges realized through new line: EE (GWh). Volume of annual electric Energy Wheeling realized through new line: EW (GWh). Volume of annual electric Energy transmitted by new line: annual Load Factor (%) of the line. Transfer Capability NTC index (MW) Energy Losses Annual Reduction of Energy Losses ELR Transmission Network Performance Environmental Impact
Ranking of Variants of the new 400 kV line according to EE index
Ranking of Variants of the new 400 kV line according to EW index
Ranking of Variants of the new 400 kV line according to LF index
Ranking of Variants of the new 400 kV line according to NTC index
Ranking of Variants of the new 400 kV line according to EL Reduction index
Conclusions & Recommendation

The final ranking of the variants based on overall evaluation of technical and economic indicators is as follows:
Variant V22 Kosovo B (KS) Kashar (AL); Variant V1 Kosovo B (KS) Kashar (AL); Variant V23 Kosovo B (KS) Kashar (AL); Variant V21 Peja 400 (KS) Kashar (AL); Variant V3 Skopje 400 (FYROM) - Elbasan 400 (AL)
The variant V4, no new line is technically not feasible.

We recommend the Variant V22: a new 400 kV line from Kosovo B(KS) to Kashar (AL) (via Vau Dejes)as the most advantageous Variant. It represents the best combination of technical indicators and economical ones.
V22 Variant

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Feasibility Study for the Kosovo B (KS) Kashar (AL) 400 kV Transmission Interconnection Project

ENERGY SECTOR TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT KOSOVO ESTAP II/1

Overall Objective of Kosovo Albania 400 kV Interconnection Line

dispatch optimization of the hydrologic and thermal resources;

Reduce the investments in installed generating capacity in both

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternatives of Kosovo Albania 400 kV Interconnection Line

Objective of the Study

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Methodology for the first phase of the project

Forecasted Demands KOSOVO

Definition of Scenarios of power transfers between KOSOVO - ALBANIA

Forecasted Demands ALBANIA

Least cost Generation Plan ALBANIA

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Review of Electricity Demand and Supply Development

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Development of Electrical Energy Demand Kosovo 2000 2020

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Development of Peak System Load Kosovo 2000 - 2020

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Development of Electricity Generation in Kosovo

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Development of Electricity Generation in Kosovo

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

ENERGY & PEAK LOAD FORECAST Albania 2002-2015

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Development of the generation Albania 2003-2015

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Daily Peak Load of Kosovo & Albanian Power Systems

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Review of studies on the SEE Region related to the Project

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Studies on the SEE Region related to the Project

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2

Energy and Peak Load on SEE

2010 Year Montenegro MW

Expon. (Montenegro GWh)

Expon. (Montenegro MW)

9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 2000

1,500 1,000 500 0 2000

Expon. (Macedonia MW)

Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 ESTAP II/1 SC-2