Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
November 2008
Professor Andrew Walker Christine Bowling
AEROSPACE MARKET
CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPE
COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE REGIONAL JET GENERAL AVIATION HELICOPTER DEFENCE SPACE
-Turboprop - Jet
- Civil - Military
-Trainer
-UAV
Global
Market 2008 $51.0bn $7.7bn $11.4bn $9.2bn $36.9bn $17.2bn
AGENDA
1. Commercial Demand
2. Future Aircraft 3. Composites Design & Manufacturing 4. Carbon Fibre
9.7% 25.9%
9.7%
2.5% 2.6%
Region Africa Asia, Oceania and CIS 1999-2008 203 1664 2794 285 652 3304 8902 2009-2018 354 2844 3221 270 734 3925 11248 1999-2018 457 4508 6015 555 1386 7229 20150
5
AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES
Europe Middle East Central America, Caribbean & South America North America Total
Fuel Burn
50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 2020
20% more efficient engines 30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics Streamlined ATM?
Cathay Pacific 12% wasted fuel
Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020 Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better?
20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East! 21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York 20 November 2007 oil hits ~$100 per barrel At $60 Barrel - Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005
1450
1350
1250
Vectra 1 Toyota Corolla Toyota Cavalier Mk3 Corolla Toyota Toyota Cavalier Corolla Corolla Mk2 VW Golf Mk2 Ford Escort MK3
VW Golf Mk4
1150
1050
VW Golf Mk3
Ford Focus
Astra Mk5
950
850
Astra Mk3
Source: Jaguar
YEARS
2002 2004
750 1986 1988 1990 1982 1970 1972 1980 1984 1992 1994
2000
1996
1998
An Economic Crisis
COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature industry at the end of its current product life cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient aircraft a composite airframe, advanced engines and electric systems!
or Business Opportunity!
Airbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) Annual full bill $20m JET A Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal, 2009) Fuel is 50-60% of operators cost If we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisle A320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per month Airbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in 2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices. programmes running. - lean
Air France A320 fleeting is 20+ years old and needs replacing!
Evolution or Revolution
New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic) A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft sales value $64m-$70m each (2010) Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014) New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving? - aircraft sales value $80 $90m each (2016) 400 aircraft per year @ $20m $8bn extra sales CHICKEN AND EGG (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!) Retention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirements Customers want new aircraft now! Will Boeing lead Airbus? New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?
Options
EVOLUTION!
Flying Wing
Commercial Aircraft
Approx. 30% improvement over 50 years
787 A300 DC-10 747 Pan-Am Tu-104 Comet Jetliner - 102 Constellation TWA Merlin Engine Pressured Cabin Boeing 307 707, Swept Wing, Jets A380
De-regulation
Composites
EUREKA TIMES
Activity Index
Timeline
1930s
1940s
1960s
1970s
2004
14
An Operators Perspective
115 Aircraft 15, B747-400 13, B747-400F 58, B777-200/200ER/300 19, B777-300ER 5, A340-500 5, A380-800 (14+ hours/day) (14 hours/day) (15+ hours/day) (14 hours/day) (16+ hours/day)
4th largest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax Kilometre 2nd largest airline in terms of FTK (Freight Tonnage Kilometre)
Operating a demanding deployment pattern while not compromising safety and high service standard demands reduction or elimination of unscheduled flight interruptions.
The challenge To create high reliability in an environment fraught with uncertainties
Reliability
Corrosion
Fatigue Weight
Costs Repairability
Corrosion:
33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years (25 man hours each beam) No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years!
Worries
1. Insidious mode of failure. Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well understood. February 1989, SIA, Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind (3 months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft)
Susceptibility to Heat Cold and Heat SIA lost a portion of thrust reverse in December 2007. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem 50c! Full or Zero Repair Approach NDT Limitations Quick & dirty option
2.
3. 4.
Conclusions
Composites enable us to do more with less Next Quantum leap involves making detection of defects and repair actions simpler and more convenient The ultimate challenge is to have a new composite material that has active health monitoring features embedded, to accurately pre-empt failures
In this way we would be the master of the situation and not the servant
- Payload ratio
- Drag - Thrust
21
FUTURE AIRCRAFT
Blended Wing
Oblique Wing
Honda Jet
Airbus A350
Cessna Mustang
Boeing 787
Composites Avionics
ARJ 21
Payloads
Eclipse 500
A380
Timeline
22
A380 Fuselage
Airbus A350
(large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024)
35% of the aircraft, by weight, will be CFRP
Boeing Y1 Project (2014) scaled version of 787? composite airframe higher aspect ratio wing design
RJs
100 seats
$30m
Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370 350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine
Adam Aircraft
Honda
39
3. COMPOSITES
A300-600F
A380-800F Freighter
A400M
Payload
~30
~26
~26
25-28
History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to ignite a new Triz curve.
41
Performance Targets
Advanced Aircraft Technologies Low Noise
Weight Reduction
11%
Drag Reduction
7%
Engines
Aerodynamics + Composites
Source: Opportunities for Composites in the Global Aerospace Market 2004-2010, E-Composites, Inc
43
Interior of V-22 wing upper surface shows the integral skin and stringers in the one-piece composite structure (picture taken
from book by Bill Norton)
Assembly hall in Ridley Park August 1988 V-22 wing for the GTA being fitted in a manufacturing fixture (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)
(picture taken from book by Bill Norton)
44
45
46
47
50
51
52
55
57
AERODYNAMICS
Airflow is the greatest single determining factor for aircraft performance
Cd A380 = 0.0133
COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow )
ratio
Laminar Airflow
Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow the greater the drag.
GEODETIC AIRCRAFT
Vickers 432 experimental wing
R-100 Airship
Wellington Factory
61
Design Rules
1. 2. 3. 4. Curves not Corners Linear joints rather than bolts and rivets Reduce component part count! Wings - high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge - smooth surfaces - GINA shape, changing system - reduce monuments, front spar, ribs - high flexural wing - laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils) - no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing) Fuselage - tubes not panels Small Empanage Electric not hydraulic Accurate assembly, water jet cutting Materials Specification Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc. Female Moulds
5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Self Healing
25% Wt Saving - 25% reduction in manufacturing costs 25% reduction in operating costs
Timescales
Operators Specification Design Concept Detailed Design Design Fix Manufacturer
0-3 years
Low hanging fruit
3 years
Simple Primary
5 years
Medium to Large Primary
6 years
Wings & Fuselage
rear pressure bulkhead tail sector complex and thick sections composite pylons
Philosophy
Background Objectives Scope Constraints Assumptions Resources Deliverables Output Value
A330-A340 71 77 87 89
A340-600 10 12 10 10
A380 1 8 30 50
A400M 0 1 12 19
A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE) Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 A350 3 65 (140) A32X 0 4 80 (150) 370 (360)
2018
130 (140)
460 (480)
BOEING B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE) Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 B787 0 7 49 96 148 180 200 200 200 225 200 200 1 65 180 260 450 Y1
The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft. Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the 1000 number is a serious underestimate.
4. CARBON FIBRE
3,700
5,200
3,400
200 100 900 230 5,130 3,750 5,420 11,660 1,000 26,960
2,000 3,000 1,250 488 11,938 7,500 6,660 16,666 1,000 43,764
2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000 1,800 625 31,525 20,000 8,330 25,830 1,000 86,685