Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Florin Citu
June 2012 Bucharest Romania
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
Money Matters
"If the coin be locked up in chests, it is the same thing with regard to prices, as if it were annihilated." David Hume Of Money M*V=P*Y
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
CPI
350
M1
9E+10 8E+10
300 7E+10 250 6E+10 5E+10 4E+10 3E+10 100 2E+10 50 1E+10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
200
150
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
50
100 M1GW
150
200
250
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
15,000.0
10,000.0
5,000.0
0.0 03.01.2006
03.01.2007
03.01.2008
03.01.2009
03.01.2010
03.01.2011
03.01.2012
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
03.01.2007
03.01.2008
03.01.2009
03.01.2010
03.01.2011
03.01.2012
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
0.0
30.0
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
NGDP RGDP M1
2001Q1 2001Q2 2001Q3 2001Q4 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 50.00 60.00 70.00
40.00
-20.00
-10.00
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 06/06/12 Time: 00:17 Sample: 2001Q1 2011Q4 Lags: 2 Null Hypothesis: NGDP does not Granger Cause M1 M1 does not Granger Cause NGDP Obs 42 F-Statistic 0.80556 4.27513 Probability 0.45452 0.02136
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 06/06/12 Time: 00:21 Sample: 2001Q1 2011Q4 Lags: 2 Null Hypothesis: M1 does not Granger Cause RGDP RGDP does not Granger Cause M1 Obs 42 F-Statistic 2.65023 1.73894 Probability 0.08401 0.18976
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
-1
-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
M1
Credit
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y
An Indepndent Advisory And Consulting Company Bucharest, Romania email:office@macroinvestadvisory.com Telephone: +40727642085
F L O R I N C I T U A D V I S O R Y