GEOG 102 Population, Resources, and the Environment

Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

Case Study 3 Chinas One Child Policy 1 Chinese Demographics 2 Population Planning in China

Chinese Demographics
Demographics...
More people than the combined population of Europe, the Americas and Japan. Any change has global ramifications. The demography of China is a powerful trend (1.29 billion).
About 14-17 million people are added each year in 1980s. Average of 13 million people per year in the 1990s. 10 million people per year in the 2000s.

400 million Chinese live in towns and cities (30-35%). 64% of the population lives in rural areas (950 millions). 343 million females are in their reproductive age.

The Population of China, 0-2050

1600
2050

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

2 105 755 1083 2000 1995 1981 1970

1953 1949 1851 1911 18121887

1210

1381

1562 1650

1753

500

1000

1500

2000

Chinese Population, 1949-2000 (in millions) (projections to 2050)

1500

1300

1100 900

700

500 1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

2025

2035

2045

Population of Selected Chinese Provinces, 1998

France United Kingdom Italy Egypt Hunan Hebei Iran Philippines Jiangsu Germany Shandong Henan Mexico Nigeria Sichuan

.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Chinese Demographics
The problems of controlling it...
The population exploded after 1949. Population control was secondary. Mao Zedong saw numbers as a workforce and a way to fight the Soviet Union and the United States. Calls for women to breed for the motherland.

Population distribution
Excessive concentration.
50% of the population lives on 8.2% of the land.

Bulk of the population along the coast. East China accounts for 90% of the population. 56%, about 728 million, are living in mountainous areas. High density rural areas.

Street Scene, Shanghai

Chinese Demographics
The 1990 Census
Counted 1.134 billion Chinese in the PRC. Believed to be the most accurate ever taken in China. A greater than anticipated increase in population due in large part to the undercounts of earlier censuses. Population was urbanizing.
The percentage of urban population had increased from 20.6% in 1982 to 26.2% by 1990. An increase of 5.6% in just eight years. Reflected job growth in the cities Development of the private sector. Governments departure from socialist methods of production in the secondary sector.

Chinese Demographics
Increasing ethnic diversity.
The government had not enforced the One Child Policy among the countrys 55 recognized minority groups. They had increased their share of still predominantly Han population to 8% from 6.7% in 1982.

Distribution remained heavily concentrated in the eastern regions.

Current issues
Population growth undermines Chinese development (education, health, transportation). Acceleration of urbanization at the expense of arable land (loss of 10% since 1978). About 10 million persons reach the employment market each year.

Chinese Demographics
Urbanization concern
Occurred at the expense of highly productive agricultural areas. During the 1990s, China lost 1% of its farm land due to urbanization and industrial development. Only about 10% of the Chinese territory can be used for agricultural purposes. The area used for grain production has declined from 120 million hectares in 1978 to 110 million hectares in 1995.

Acres of Arable Land per Person

US Nigeria Indonesia India Germany Brazil China
0.2 0.25 0.22 0.3 0.42 0.35 0.37 0.82 0.79 0.59 0.67 0.96 1.66

2.05

1994-1996 1979-1981 1 1.5 2 2.5

0.5

Chinese Demographics
Agricultural problems

Traditional land structures have reach optimal capacity. Output cannot be increased without the usage of modern techniques such as machinery and fertilizers. The size of exploitations is too small:
Modern techniques are not available. Less than 1 hectare per household in coastal areas.

Urbanization, industrialization and transport have decreased agricultural land in the most productive areas. Speculation around cities towards golf courses and leisure centers at the expanse of agriculture. About 13-15 million new mouths to feed each year with declining agricultural surfaces. Production of grain is diverted to livestock (meat) and other production (e.g. beer). Limited investments in agriculture by the peasant.

Chinese Demographics
Improving Chinese agriculture
Considerable room for improvement for the Chinese agricultural productivity. China has not much applied techniques learned during the green revolution. Consolidation of agricultural plots could increase economies of scale. Irrigation:
65% of all the water used for irrigation is lost. Putting this ratio only to 50% could increase water resources by 40% without taping on new sources.

Approximately 25% of the grain is lost due to improper warehousing and transport infrastructure.

Chinese Demographics
Increased agricultural output
Regrouping small exploitations to reach economies of scale. Investments in irrigation. Reduction of agricultural labor between 100 to 120 millions. Rural enterprises to absorb in situ the excess labor. Moving from a labor to a capital intensive agriculture.

Family Planning
Early 1970s
Known as the later-longer-fewer program. Authorized age of marriage 25 for men and 23 for women. Wait later to begin their families, allow for longer spacing in between children, and have fewer children overall. Began to reduce fertility levels. Not fast enough to really slow down population growth due to the demographic momentum that had already developed.

End of 1970s
Government began to promote the two-child family throughout the country. Slogan One is best, at most two, never a third. Contributed to fertility decline but, again, not rapidly enough.

Family Planning
One Child Policy
Launched in 1981 when the population reached 1 billion.
Initial goal: Stabilize Chinas population at 1.2 billion. Revised goal: Keep Chinas population under 1.4 billion until 2010. Population expected to stabilize around 1.6 billion by 2050.

Under the responsibility of the State Family Planning Commission (SFPC). Population control perceived from a strategic point of view. Great variations in performance between the countrys urban and rural areas. Possible to enforce in China (totalitarian). Would have been impossible in most other places.

Family Planning
Regulations of the policy
Employers and neighborhood committees had to enforce guidelines. 1) Authorization for marriage:
25 years for male and 23 years for female. Students and apprentices not allowed to marry.

2) Monitoring menstrual cycles. 3) Contraceptive use mandatory:

UID used for women with already one child. Incentives for sterilization after the birth of the first child. Couples with two or more children had to have one partner sterilized (women 80% of the time).

4) All pregnancies must be authorized:

Authorized pregnancies had to be aborted. 7th, 8th or 9th month abortions are legal.

Family Planning
Incentives offered to couples with only one child:
Monthly allowances paid to couples with only one child. Child entitled to free educational and medical services.

Disincentives used to discourage larger families:

Fine up to 15% of annual income. Couples forced to give up all privileges if a second child was born and had to repay any cash awards it had received. A third child denied free education, subsidized food, and housing privileges. A third childs parents would be penalized with a 10% reduction in wages.

Family Planning
Urban areas
Small sized apartments. Improving ones status and level of consumption. Easier control from the government.

Rural areas
Families want more children to work the family plots and sustain parents when they get old. Want sons who will continue the family line and provide ritual sacrifices to their ancestors after they die. Daughters are leaving their family once they marry. Girls are accounting for only 20 to 30% of a new demographic class in some areas.

Percentage of Women Having More Than One Child, 1998

Xinjiang Tibet Sichuan Guangdong Fujian Jiangsu Shanghai Beijing National 0 0 0.19 5.1 10 20 30 3.68 2.16 4.19 12.32 21.55 26.58

Fertility reduction
Prevented about 300 million births since 1980. When the program began (1970), Crude Birth Rate was 34 and TFR was around 6. Been brought down to 10 (CBR) and 1.7 (TFR). About 40% of Chinese women have been sterilized. About 5% of women have more than one child.

Family Planning
Fluctuations of fertility
Fertility has declined substantially before the OCP. Reached a low in 1984. Increased from the mid 1980s to the early 1990s. Relaxation in enforcement in rural areas.
In 1986, 2 children per couple were allowed in rural areas. In 1995, the restriction was lifted for urban areas.

Reductions in the authority of local officials responsible for implementing the program. Sizeable age cohort entering their reproductive years.
Baby boom of the early 1960s (about 40% of the increase was due to this). A decline in the age of marriage explained the other 60%. Nearly 75% of this increase was offset by declines in the age-specific fertility rates.

TFR
0 TFR Natural Increase 0 5 -5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 -10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
19 49 19 52 19 55 19 58 19 61 19 64 19 67 19 70 19 73 19 76 19 79 19 82 19 85 19 88 19 91 19 94 19 97

Chinese Fertility Rate, 1949-1998

Natural Increase

Family Planning
Imbalanced sex ratio
Male children are more valued. 120 boys for 100 girls (national average). Abandon or abortion of females. Missing female population as girls are not declared. 2000: About 900,000 girls were missing (0 to 4 years group). Only 1% of females are unmarried by the age of 30.

Psychological consequences:
Currently around 70 million single child. 4-2-1 syndrome (4 grand parents 2 parents 1 child):
Little emperors or little empresses. Self-centrism. Pressure to succeed.

Males minus Females, China, 2000

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000

Family Planning
The Population and Family Planning Law
One-child policy was a policy for one generation. Relaxed in the mid 1980s:
2 children permitted in rural areas.

A new family planning law started in 2002. Same goal than the One-child policy, but offer more flexibility:
One child, but permission may be granted for a second under specific circumstances. Late marriage and childbearing. More flexibility for provinces, autonomous regions and minorities. People in reproductive age have to use contraception. Provisions for sex-determination and sex-specific abortions.

Government keeping a close eye on demographics to see if population control required.

Population Pyramid of China, 2000

1 80-84 3 7 12 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 -30 -10 Millions 10 30 42 43 43 48 50 2 5

Female Male 18 21 24

13

64

52 60 48 51 55 51 -50

42 42

31

18 20 22

29

41 40

50

61 58 58

63

-70

70

Population Pyramid of China, 2050

Female Male
53 40 48 45 21 12 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 36 34 35 36 33 31 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 25 32

30 32

40 38 42

41 42 44 40

44 41 38 39 42 39 35 33 34 34 32 29

52

-70

-50

-30

-10

Millions

10

30

50

70

Population Planning in China

What would have happened if it was not applied?
Population by 2000 would have reached 1.6 billion (instead of 1.3). Annual increase would be 40 million (instead of 17-19). Require much higher level of economic development.

The total population will continue to increase

Even if the natural growth rate can be lowered to 1% by 2005. Annual net increase of population will still be more than 10 million. Will continue to increase in the next 50 years. Even with effective family planning, Chinas population will not stabilize until it reaches 1.5-1.6 billion by 2050.

Population Planning in China

Improve the quality of the population
Education and health.
2.5 million students entered Universities in 2001.

Tremendous incurred costs.

Potential surplus labor in rural areas

A result of the development of the rural economy and the higher rate of birth. Large numbers of surplus rural labor who will need to transfer from the agricultural to a non-agricultural field. Speed urbanization of the population and create bigger pressure on cities and towns.

Population Planning in China

Aging of the population
Persons 65 years and older represent about 7 percent of the population. In the 21st century, Chinas population will continue this aging trend. 65 years old or older numbering 250 million by the year 2040. Providing social security and services to a huge elderly population.