Analiza seriilor cronologice

INDICATORII SERIILOR CRONOLOGICE

*

,QGLFDWRULL DEVROX L

Indicatorii de nivel
(y1, ...yt, ..., yn.).

VXQW

Nivelul totalizat al termenilor

0RGLILF

ULOH

FX ED]

IL[

FX ED]

t/1):

vQ ODQ

unde

t = 2, n

unde

t = 2, n

unde

mn

unde

t = 3,n

t/t-1):

t =2

yt .
t =1

t/t-1=yt - yt-1 ,
5HOD LL XWLOH

WHUPHQLL

absolute

t/1=yt - y1 ,

FKLDU

t / t 1

= m /1 ,

t/1 - t-1/1 = t/t-1 ,

XQHL

VHULL

IRUPDWH

GLQ

LQGLFDWRUL

DEVROX L

Indicatorii relativi

,QGLFH GH GLQDPLF

FX ED]

IL[

FX ED]

It/1):

yt
y1

I t /1 =

sau

vQ ODQ

5HOD LL XWLOH

yt
100 , unde
y1

t = 2, n

(It/t-1):

yt
y t 1

I t / t 1 =

I t / 1(%) =

sau

I t / t 1(%) =

yt
100 , unde
y t 1

t = 2, n

I
t =2

t / t 1

= I m / 1 , unde

mn

I t /1
= I t / t 1 , unde t = 3 , n
I t 1 / 1
5LWPXO GH GLQDPLF

FX ED]

Rt

FX ED]

IL[

(Rt/1):
y t y1

y1

vQ ODQ

9DORDUHD DEVROXW

FX ED]

IL[

At / 1 =

FX ED]

Rt

= I t 1( % ) 100 % ,

t = 2,n

sau

R t / t 1 = I t / t 1 (%) 100% ,

t = 2, n

D XQXL SURFHQW GH GLQDPLF

(At/1):

t /1
Rt / 1

vQ ODQ

At / t 1 =

sau

(Rt/t-1):

yt yt 1
100
yt 1

Rt / t 1 =

100

y1
100

sau

At / 1 =

sau

At / t 1 =

(At/t-1):

t / t 1
Rt / t 1

y t 1
100

Indicatorii medii

Nivelului mediu
SHQWUX R VHULH FURQRORJLF

GH LQWHUYDOH GH WLPS IRUPDWH GLQ LQGLFDWRUL DEVROX L

y=

y
t =1

pentru o serie de momente cu intervale egale ntre momente (PHGLD FURQRORJLF

VLPSO

):

y
y1
+ y 2 + y 3 + ... + y i +... + y n1 + n
2
y cr = 2
n 1

pentru o serie de momente cu intervale neegale ntre momente (mHGLD

:

FURQRORJLF

SRQGHUDW

y cr =

d1
y1
2

d1 + d 2

+ y2

+ ... y i

d i 1 + d i

+ ... + y n

d n1

n1

d i
i =1

'H UH LQXW F  SHQWUX VH

FURQRORJLF

SRQGHUDW

ria de momente cu intervale neegale ntre datele nregistrate, media

HVWH VLQJXUXO LQGLFDWRU PHGLX FH FDUDFWHUL]HD]

0RGLILFDUHD PHGLH DEVROXW

t / t 1

sau

n 1

VHULD

yn y1
n 1

Indicele mediu de GLQDPLF (I ) :

I = n 1 I t / t 1
'DF

GLVSXQHP

GH

sau

PDL

PXO L

LQGLFL

yn
y1

I = n 1

PHGLL

GH

GLQDPLF

VXESHULRDGH VXFFHVLYH GH WLPS LQGLFHOH PHGLX FH FDUDFWHUL]HD]

FH

FDUDFWHUL]HD]

vQWUHDJD SHULRDG

PDL

PXOWH

VH FDOFXOHD]

astfel:
k

ni

I = i =1

n1

I1

n2

I2

ni

nk

... I i

... I k

n care:

I
Ii
ni
k

- LQGLFHOH PHGLX JHQHUDO GH GLQDPLF

- LQGLFLL PHGLL SDU LDOL GH GLQDPLF 
- QXP
- QXP

UXO LQGLFLORU FX ED]

vQ ODQ

UXO VXESHULRDGHORU DGLF

5LWPXO PHGLX GH GLQDPLF

R = (I (%) ) 100%

FH LQWU

vQ FRPSRQHQ D ILHF UXL LQGLFH PHGLX SDU LDO

DO LQGLFLORU PHGLL SDU LDOL

AJUSTAREA SERIILOR CRONOLOGICE

(YROX LD RULF UXL IHQRPHQ vQ WLPS HVWH UH]XOWDQWD XQRU LQIOXHQ H GH QDWXU

VLVWHPDWLF

L D

altora de tip aleator.

Componentele sistematice sunt:
trendul WHQGLQ D JHQHUDO 
sezonalitatea FDUH VH PDQLIHVW

VXE IRUP

GH DEDWHUL GH OD WHQGLQ D JHQHUDO

OD LQWHUYDOH

UHJXODWH GH WLPS PDL PLFL GH XQ DQ VHPHVWUX WULPHVWUX OXQ  GHFDG 

ciclicitatea FDUH VH SUH]LQW

perioade mai mari de un an.

VXE IRUP

Componentele aleatoare VH PDQLIHVW

GH IOXFWXD LL vQ MXUXO WHQGLQ HL vQUHJLVWUDWH OD

VXE IRUPD XQRU DEDWHUL vQWkPSO WRDUH GH OD FHHD FH DUH

VLVWHPDWLF HYROX LD YDULDELOHL DQDOL]DWH

Prin
WHUPHQLORU

DMXVWDUHD WHUPHQLORU XQHL VHULL GH GDWH VWDWLVWLFH VH vQ HOHJH RSHUD LD GH vQORFXLUH D

UHDOL

FX

WHUPHQL

WHRUHWLFL

IHQRPHQHORU OD FDUH VH UHIHU

'LVSHUVLD WRWDO

2
y

( )
2
y

(y
=

FH

H[SULP

OHJLWDWHD

VSHFLILF

GH

GH]YROWDUH

VH FDOFXOHD]

GXS

y)

2
y/r

n care Y t i

(y
=

Yti

LQIOXHQ D IDFWRULORU
H[FHS LD IDFWRUXOXL

YDORDUHD

WHRUHWLF

D YDULDELOHL

Dispersia valorilor ajustate de la valoarea medie

de modificarea factorului timp:

FX IRUPXOD

UHSUH]LQW

2
y/t

IRUPXOD

Dispersia termenilor seriei de la valorile ajustate y / r VLQWHWL]HD]

reziduali - IDFWRUL QHvQUHJLVWUD L - vQ FD]XO VHULLORU FURQRORJLFH WR L IDFWRULL FX
WLPS L VH FDOFXOHD]

RELHFWLY

GDWHOH

(Y
=

ti

y vQ IXQF LH GH WLPS

2
y/t

sLQWHWL]HD]

YDULD LD SURGXV

QXPDL

Metode simple de ajustare a seriilor cronologice

Metoda mediilor mobile
6H IRORVHWH SHQWUX VHULLOH FDUH SUH]LQW

RVFLOD LL VH]RQLHUH L FLFOLFH

Mediile mobile VXQW PHGLL SDU LDOH FDOFXODWH GLQWU-XQ QXP

vQORFXLHWH SH UkQG SULPXO WHUPHQ FX WHUPHQXO FH XUPHD]

U SUHVWDELOLW GH WHUPHQL vQ FDUH VH

vQ VHULD FDUH WUHEXLH V

ILH DMXVWDW 

Q SUDFWLF

SXWHP FDOFXOD PHGLL PRELOH GLQWU XQ QXP U LPSDU GH WHUPHQL VDX GL

ntr-XQ QXP

SDU GH WHUPHQL vQ IXQF LH GH SHULRGLFLWDWHD LQIOXHQ HL IDFWRULORU VH]RQLHUL

Cnd ajustarea se face pe baza mediilor mobile calculate dintr-XQ

PHGLLOH PRELOH VH RE LQ vQ GRX

( )

1) medii mobile provizorii Y

FDUH VH SODVHD]

( )

2) medii mobile definitive sau centrate Y

L UHSUH]LQW

QXP U SDU GH WHUPHQL

WUHSWH

vQWUH WHUPHQLL VHULHL

 FDUH VH SODVHD]

vQ GUHSWXO WHUPHQLORU VHULHL

YDORULOH DMXVWDWH DOH WHUPHQLORU UHVSHFWLYL GLQ VHULD LQL LDO 

0HWRGD JUDILF

AceVW

SURFHGHX SUHVXSXQH UHSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF

KLVWRULRJUDP  XUPDW
ID

GH WUDVDUHD YL]XDO

D VHULHL GH GDWH HPSLULFH SULQ FURQRJUDP

D GUHSWHL VDX FXUEHL DVWIHO vQFkW V

DLE

DEDWHUL PLQLPH

GH SR]L LD YDORULORU UHDOH vQ JUDILF

0HWRGD PRGLILF

ULL PHGLL

absolute

$MXVWDUHD SULQ DFHVW SURFHGHX VH IRORVHWH DWXQFL FkQG SUHOXFUkQG VHULD GH GDWH VH RE LQ
PRGLILF UL DEVROXWH FX ED]

vQ ODQ

DSURSLDWH FD YDORDUH XQHOH GH DOWHOH

)XQF LD GH DMXVWDUH

Y t = y 1 + ( t 1) ,

t = 1, n

unde

sau

Yti = y 0 + t i ,
unde:
y0 UHSUH]LQW

WHUPHQXO OXDW FD ED]

GUHDSWD VDX FXUED WUDVDW

ti

UHSUH]LQW

GH DMXVWDUH DFHD YDORDUH FDUH VH DSURSLH FHO PDL PXOW GH

YL]XDO vQ JUDILF

YDULDELOD GH WLPS vQ UDSRUW FX ED]D GH DMXVWDUH IRORVLW

UHVSHFWLY R DUH ID

SR]L LD SH FDUH WHUPHQXO

GH WHUPHQXO DOHV FD ED] 

0HWRGD LQGLFHOXL PHGLX GH GLQDPLF

$FHVW SURFHGHX VH IRORVHWH DWXQFL FkQG WHUPHQLL VHULHL DX WHQGLQ D GH FUHWHUH GH IRUPD XQHL
SURJUHVLL JHRPHWULFH vQ FDUH UD LD SRDWH IL FRQVLGHUDW

FD HJDO

FX LQGLFHOH PHGLX GH GLQDPLF

( I ).

)XQF LD GH DMXVWDUH

Yt = y1 I t 1
sau

Yti = y0 I ti ,
unde:
y0 UHSUH]LQW
ti UHSUH]LQW

WHUPHQXO OXDW FD ED]

GH DMXVWDUH

YDULDELOD GH WLPS vQ UDSRUW FX ED]D GH DMXVWDUH IRORVLW

UHVSHFWLY R DUH ID

GH WHUPHQXO DOHV FD ED] 

SR]L LD SH FDUH WHUPHQXO

Metode analitice de ajustare

XQ PRGHO PDWHPDWLF vQ FDUH WHQGLQ D FHQWUDO

0HWRGHOH DQDOLWLFH DX OD ED]

H[SULP

D HYROX LHL VH

FD R IXQF LH GH WLPS

y = f(t) QXPLW

IXQF LH GH DMXVWDUH

n care:
t - UHSUH]LQW
y - UHSUH]LQW

YDORULOH YDULDELOHL LQGHSHQGHQWH WLPSXO

YDORULOH

YDULDELOHL

GHSHQGHQWH

IHQRPHQHOH

FDUH

VXQW

SUH]HQWDWH

vQ

VHULD

FURQRORJLF 

$OHJHUHD WLSXOXL GH IXQF LH FDUH VH SRWULYHWH FH

l mai bine pentru exprimarea trendului se

IDFH SH ED]D XUP WRDUHORU FULWHULL DSOLFDELOH RS LRQDO

FULWHULXO ED]DW SH UHSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF

FULWHULXO GLIHUHQ HORU 6H SURFHGHD]

RUGLQXO XQX GRL HWF SkQ
DMXVWDUHD I FkQGX VH GXS

'DF
VXQW

OD FDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU DEVROXWH FX ED]

FkQG RE LQHP GLIHUHQ HOH GH RUGLQ

SROLQRPXO GH JUDGXO

H[SRQHQ LDO 
XUPD

FRQVWDQW

It/t-1

DOHJHULL

IXQF LHL

DGPLWHP
GH

DMXVWDUH

GH

i.

vQ ODQ

i aproximativ constante

IHQRPHQXO FHUFHWDW V D GH]YROWDW vQ SURJUHVLH JHRPHWULF  DGLF

FRQVWDQ L
Q

 6H FRQVWUXLHWH FURQRJUDPD L VH DSUHFLD]

IRUPD WHQGLQ HL GH HYROX LH

VHULD

FURQRORJLF

GXS

FULWHULLOH

LQGLFLL FX ED]

UHVSHFWLY

SUH]HQWDWH

SDUDPHWULORU DFHVWRU IXQF LL XWLOL]kQG PHWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH $FHDVW

SUH]LQW
VH

LPSXQH

PHWRG

vQ ODQ
WHQGLQ

HVWLPDUHD

DUH FD IXQF LH

RELHFWLY PLQLPL]DUHD VXPHL S WUDWHORU DEDWHULORU YDORULORU UHDOH GH OD FHOH DMXVWDWH GHFL

min y i Yti

, unde ti= 1, 2, ... , n

Trend liniar

Y t i = a + bt i ,
n care:

Yt i -

UHSUH]LQW

YDORULOH DMXVWDWH FDOFXODWH vQ IXQF LH GH YDORULOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLL IDFWRULDOH 

UHSUH]LQW

SDUDPHWUXO FDUH DUH VHQV GH P ULPH PHGLH L DUDW

FH QLYHO DU IL DWLQV

LQIOXHQ D WXWXURU IDFWRULORU FX H[FHS LD FHOXL vQUHJLVWUDW DU IL IRVW FRQVWDQW

ti);

y GDF

SH WRDW

perioada;
b
ti

UHSUH]LQW

SDUDPHWUXO FDUH VLQWHWL]HD]

UHSUH]LQW

QXPDL LQIOXHQ D FDUDFWHULVWLFLL IDFWRULDOH 

t);

YDORULOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLL IDFWRULDOH FDUH vQ FD]XO VHULLORU FURQRORJLFH HVWH

timpul.
Parametrii a

VH GHWHUPLQ

PHWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH 

[y i

SULQ UH]ROYDUHD VLVWHPXOXL GH HFXD LL QRUPDOH RE LQXW SULQ

( a + bt i ) ] = min ):

na + b t i = y i

2
a t i + b t i = t i y i

Pentru

 VLVWHPXO GH HFXD LL QRUPDOH GHYLQH

na = y i

2
b t i = t i y i

, de unde

yi
a =
n

b = t i y i

t i2

QORFXLQG YDORULOH FDOFXODWH DOH FHORU GRL SDUDPHWUL vQ HFXD LD GH UHJUHVLH L DSRL vQORFXLQG
VXFFHVLY YDORULOH YDULDELOHL WLPS VH RE LQ YDORULOH DMXVWDWH DOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLL UH]XOWDWLYH

Verificarea coUHFWLWXGLQLL FDOFXO

ti

ULL HFXD LLORU GH UHJUHVLH VH IDFH SH ED]D UHOD LHL

yi .

Trend parabolic
Y t i = a + bt i + ct i2
3XQkQG
WHRUHWLFH V

DFHHDL

FRQGL LH

FD

VXPD

S WUDWHORU

DEDWHULORU

WHUPHQLORU

VHULHL

GH

OD

YDORULOH

ILH PLQLP  VH RE LQH

(y

(a + bt i + ct i2 )) 2 = minim

LDU VLVWHPXO GH HFXD LL QRUPDOH

na + b t i + c t i2 = y i

2
3
a t i + b t i + c t i = t i y i

2
3
4
2
a t i + b t i + c t i = t i y i

Pentru

 FD] vQ FDUH L

3
i

 VLVWHPXO GH HFXD LL QRUPDOH GHYLQH

na + c t i2 = y i

2
b t i = t i y i

2
4
2
a t i + c t i = t i y i

Rezolvnd sistemul de

HFXD LL QRUPDOH VH FDOFXOHD]

IXQF LH GH YDORULOH LQGLYLGXDOH DOH YDULDELOHL

Trend hiperbolic
Yti = a +

1
b
ti

t VH DMXVWHD]

YDORDUHD FHORU WUHL SDUDPHWUL L vQ

YDORULOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLL UH]XOWDWLYH

6LVWHPXO GH HFXD LL HVWH

na + b t = y i

a 1 + b 1 = 1 y
i

ti
ti
t i2

7UHQG H[SRQHQ LDO

Yti = a b ti
3ULQ ORJDULWPDUH PRGHOXO VH WUDQVIRUP

vQWU

-un model liniar de forma:

lg Yti = lg a + t i lg b
6LVWHPXO GH HFXD LL QRUPDOH YD IL

n lg a + lg b t i = lg y i

lg a t i + lg b t i2 = ( t i lg y i )

2SHUD LD GH DMXVWDUH vQ DFHVW FD] VH YD IDFH GXS

LQGLYLGXDOH

GH

DMXVWDUH

$MXVWDUHD

GXS

HFXD LLORU GH DMXVWDUH FDOFXODWH vQ IXQF LH GH

IXQF LH

FH VH YRU FDOFXOD ORJDULWPLL HFXD LLORU

H[SRQHQ LDO

VH

IDFH

SULQ

DQWLORJDULWPDUHD

ti.

Criterii de alegere a procedeelor de ajustare

a)

6H FDOFXOHD]

y
b)

VXPD DEDWHULORU OXDWH vQ YDORDUH DEVROXW  GLQWUH GDWHOH HPSLULFH L FHOH

yt Yt

ajustate

6H

FRQVLGHU

FHO

PDL

SRWULYLW

SURFHGHXO

OD

FDUH

VH

RE LQH

Yt = min .

6H FDOFXOHD]

V y/ t =

FRHILFLHQWXO GH YDULD LH

d y/t

n care d y / t
FDOFXODW

GXS

d y/t =

100

UHSUH]LQW
IRUPXOD

Yti

DEDWHUHD PHGLH OLQLDU

D YDORULORU UHDOH GH OD YDORULOH DMXVWDWH

EXTRAPOLAREA SERIILOR CRONOLOGICE

Extrapolarea datelor unei serii statistiFH
ajustare.

DUH

3HQWUX D IDFH GLVWLQF LH vQWUH WHUPHQLL DMXVWD L 

OD

ED]

PHWRGHOH

Yt i

 L FHL H[WUDSROD L

SURFHGHHOH

IRORVLWH

OD

FDUH VXQW FRQVLGHUD L

tot termenii teoretici - VH YRU QRWD WHUPHQLL H[WUDSROD L FX Yt , iar variabila de timp cu ti.
i
Deci, formulele de calcul vor fi:

pentru extrapolarea pe baza sporului mediu:

Yt = y 0 + t i
i

SHQWUX H[WUDSRODUHD SH ED]D LQGLFHOXL PHGLX GH FUHWHUH

Y ti = y 0 I

t i

ci cnd se folosesc valorile parametrilor ( , I ) din perioada

FX XQ FRHILFLHQW k, astfel:

$FHVWH IRUPXOH VH DSOLF

DWXQ

H[SLUDW  Q FD]XO FkQG DFHWLD VH PRGLILF  SDUDPHWULL VH PRGLILF

Yt = y 0 + t i ,
i

n care:

= k

n care:

I = kI

t
i
Y ti = y 0 I ,

Coeficientul k SRDWH V ILH PDL PDUH VDX PDL PLF GHFkW 

'DF
k<1, DWXQFL vQVHDPQ F VH UHGXFH YDULD LD PHGLH DEVROXW
DSOLF

VDX UHODWLY  GXS

FXP VH

OD SULPXO VDX OD DO GRLOHD SURFHGHX

'DF
k>1, atunci nseaPQ
dect n perioada de analizat.

YDORDUHD SDUDPHWULORU IRORVL L vQ H[WUDSRODUH HVWH PDL PDUH

3HQWUX H[WUDSRODUHD SH ED]D PHWRGHORU DQDOLWLFH GH FDOFXO VH SXQH vQ SULPXO UkQG FRQGL LD FD
GDWHOH V

VH GHWHUPLQH DVWIHO vQFkW V

VHULHL FURQRORJLFH L SHQWUX FDUH

LQWHUHVHD]

QX PRGLILFH RULJLQHD YDULD LHL GH WLPS FDUH HVWH vQ PLMORFXO

ti = 0.

QXPDL WHQGLQ D RE LQXW

'HFL YDULD LD GH WLPS VH H[WLQGH vQ DPEHOH VHQVXUL GHL

SULQ H[WLQGHUHD VHULHL SHQWUX SHULRDGD XUP WRDUH

L vQ DFHVW FD] VH YRU IRORVL DFHOHDL QRWD LL DGLF

WHUPHQLL H[WUDSROD L VH YRU QRWD FX

Yti ,

astfel:

Yt = a + bt i
i
Yt = ab ti
i

Yt = a + bt i + ct i
i

'DF

IHQRPHQHOH VH DQDOL]HD]

vQ LQWHUGHSHQGHQ

FX YDULD LD IDFWRULORU FDUH OH GHWHUPLQ

GLQDPLF  DWXQFL VH DOHJ FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH IDFWRULDOH FDUH VXQW SUHYL]LELOH QXPDL vQ IXQF LH GH WLPS L
DSRL DSUHFLLQG F
SHUVSHFWLY

GH UHDOL]DUH D OHJ WXULL VH FDOFXOHD]

YDORULOH GH

L SHQWUX FDUDFWHULVWLFD GHSHQGHQW  'H H[HPSOX SHQWUX R FDUDFWHULVWLF

V DU S VWUD DFHHDL WHQGLQ

UH]XOWDWLY 

DQDOL]DW
WHQGLQ

vQ IXQF LH GH GRL IDFWRUL FX FDUH HVWH OHJDW

OLQLDU VH FDOFXOHD]  PDL vQWkL HFXD LD PHGLH GH

SH SHULRDGD H[SLUDW  DGLF 

Yt = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2
n care x1, x2 sunt variabile factoriale luate n timp.
6HSDUDW
H[WUDSROHD]

VH

DQDOL]HD]

FHOH GRX

WHQGLQ D

GH

GH]YROWDUH

ILHF UHL

YDULDELOH

LQGHSHQGHQWH

VH

VHULL

X 1 = a x1 + bx1 t

X 2 = a x2 + b x 2 t
$FHVWH YDORUL VH LQWURGXF vQ HFXD LD IXQF LHL GH UHJUHVLH PXOWLSO 
H[WUDSRODWH DOH YDULDELOHL < GXS

calculndu-se valorile

YDORULOH PRGLILFDWH DOH FHORU GRL IDFWRUL

Yx1 x2 = a 0 + a1 x1 + a 2 x
2

PROBLEME REZOLVATE

1.
$QDOL]D VWDWLVWLF

D XQHL VHULL FURQRORJLFH GH LQWHUYDOH

3URGXF LD LQWHUQ

GH DOXPLQLX D vQUHJLVW

rat n perioada 1992- XUP

WRDUHOH YDORUL

Tabelul 6.1.
1992

Anul

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

144

145

164

175

176

178

3URGXF LD GH

120
116
122
aluminiu
(mii tone)
Sursa: Revista Capital nr. 23 din 7 iunie 2001.

Se cere:
1.

2.
3.
4.

VH FDUDFWHUL]H]H HYROX LD SURGXF LHL GH DOXPLQLX IRORVLQG LQGLFDWRULL

DEVROX L

relativi;
medii;

VH UHSUH]LQWH JUDILF VHULD YDORULORU DEVROXWH

VH GHWHUPLQH WUHQGXO GH HYROX LH SH ED]D PHWRGHORU PHFDQLFH L DQDOLWLFH

VH DOHDJ

FHD PDL DGHFYDW

SHQWUX DQLL  L 

PHWRG

FDUH DMXVWHD]

IHQRPHQXO L V

VH H[WUDSROH]H VHULD

Rezolvare:
1.

&DOFXOXO LQGLFDWRULORU DEVROX L

Nivelul absolut ( y t

) este reprezentat de termenii seriei (vezi tabelul 6.1.).

yt

Nivelul totalizat:

t =1

( ):

0RGLILFDUHD DEVROXW

FX ED]

( t 1 ):

IL[

= y t y 1 (tabelul 6.2., coloana 2)

= y 2 y 1 = 116 120 = 4 (mii tone)


9

= y 9 y 1 = 178 120 = 58 (mii tone)

FX ED]

( t

vQ ODQ

t 1

):

t 1

= y t y t 1 (tabelul 6.2., coloana 3)

= y 2 y 1 = 116 120 = 4 (mii tone)


9

= y 9 y 8 = 178 176 = 2 (mii tone)

t

5HOD LLOH vQWUH

t 1

t 1

=t

+3

t 1:

++ 9

= 9

4 + 6 + 22 + 1 + 19 + 11 + 1 + 2 = 58

t 1

= t

= 9

t 1

58 56 = 2
Tabelul 6.2.
0RGLILFDUHD DEVROXW

Anul
A
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Total

3URGXF LD

(mii tone)
1
120
116
122
144
145
164
175
176
178
1340

FX ED]

IL[

= y t y1
2
-4
2
24
25
44
55
56
58
-

PLL WRQH

FX ED]

t 1

vQ ODQ

= y t y t 1
3
-4
6
22
1
19
11
1
2
58

Calculul indicatorilor relativi:

,QGLFHOH GH GLQDPLF

FX ED]

FUHWHUHGHVFUHWHUH

( I ):

( I t 1 ) (vezi tabelul 6.3., coloana 2)

IL[

yt

I t 1( % ) =

100
y1
116
I 2 1( % ) =
100 = 96 , 66%
120


I 9 1( % ) =

FX ED]

It

178
100 = 148 , 33%
120

(I t

vQ ODQ

t 1( %

yt

) =

I 2 1( % ) =

y t 1

) (vezi tabelul 6.3., coloana 3)

t 1

100

116
100 = 96 , 66%
120

I 9 8( % ) =
5HOD LLOH vQWUH

It

178
100 = 101 , 14%
176
It

t 1 :

It

= It 1
0 , 9666 1 , 0517  1 , 0114 1 , 4833
t 1

It

: I t 1

I9

: I8

= It

= I9

t 1
8

1,4833 : 1,4666 1 , 0114

Tabelul 6.3.
9DORDUHD DEVROXW

Indicele de dinDPLF
Anul

3URGXF LD

(mii tone)

FX ED]

It 1 =

A
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Total

1
120
116
122
144
145
164
175
176
178
1340

IL[

yt
y1

2
0,9666
1,0166
1,2000
1,2083
1,3666
1,4583
1,4666
1,4833
-

FX ED]

Ritmul

vQ ODQ

I t t 1 =

yt
y t 1

3
1,0000
0,9666
1,0517
1,1803
1,0069
1,1310
1,0670
1,0057
1,0114
-

FX ED]
FX ED]

IL[

FX ED]

vQ ODQ

R t 1 = I t 1 1 100 R t t 1 = I t t 1 1 100

4
-3,34
1,66
20,00
20,83
36,66
45,83
46,66
48,33
-

1%
din ritm

5
-3.34
5,17
18,03
0,69
13,1
6,70
0,57
1,14
-

IL[

At 1 =

6
1,2
1,2
1,2
1,2
1,2
1,2
1,2
1,2
-

FX ED]

vQ

ODQ

y1
100

A t t 1 =

7
1,20
1,16
1,22
1,44
1,45
1,64
1,75
1,76
-

y t 1
100

Ritmul de modificare (FUHWHUHGHVFUHWHUH 5:

FX ED]

IL[ 

Rt

(vezi tabelul 6.3., coloana 4)

100 = I t

1 100

Rt

R2

= ( 0 , 9666 1 ) 100 = 3 , 34%

= (1 , 4833 1 ) 100 = 48 , 33%

y1

R9

FX ED]

vQ ODQ

YH]L WDEHOXO  FRORDQD 

t 1

100 = I t

1 100

Rt

t 1

R2

= ( 0 , 9666 1 ) 100 = 3 , 34%

= (1 , 0114 1 ) 100 = 1 , 14%

y t 1

t 1

R9

9DORDUHD DEVROXW

FX ED]

At

A2

IL[ 

Rt

D XQXL SURFHQW GLQ ULWPXO PRGLILF

At

ULL $

(vezi tabelul 6.3., coloana 6)

y1
100

120
= 1 , 2 mii tone
100

120
= 1 , 2 mii tone
100

A9

FX ED]

vQ ODQ 

t 1

Rt

t 1

At
=

t 1

(vezi tabelul 6.3., coloana 7)

y t 1

At

t 1

A2

120
= 1 , 2 mii tone
100

176
= 1 , 76 mii tone
100

100

A9

Calculul indicatorilor medii

( )

Nivelul mediu y :
6HULD FURQRORJLF
FDOFXOHD]

SUH]HQWDW

HVWH R VHULH GH LQWHUYDOH SHQWUX FDUH QLYH

lul mediu se

DSOLFkQG IRUPXOD PHGLHL DULWPHWLFH

y=

yt
t =1

1340
148 , 89 mii tone
9

3URGXF LD PHGLH DQXO

GH DOXPLQLX D IRVW GH  PLL WRQH

( ):

0RGLILFDUHD PHGLH DEVROXW

t 1

n 1

n 1

n medie creWHUHD DQXDO

58
= 7 , 25 mii tone
8

vQ SHULRDGD 

-2000 a fost de 7,25 mii tone.

Indicele mediu

It

I = n1

t 1

= n 1 I n

= 8 1 , 4833 = 1 , 0505 sau 105,05%

Ritmul mediu

R = I 1 100 = (1 , 0505 1 ) 100 = 5 , 05%

3URGXF LD V

-a modificat n medie cu 5,05% anual.

3HQWUX UHSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF






2.

D VHULHL VH FRQVWUXLHWH FURQRJUDPD KLVWRULRJUDPD

190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
anii

)LJXUD  'LQDPLFD SURGXF LHL GH DOXPLQLX D 5RPkQLHL vQ DQLL 

-2000

3.

'HWHUPLQDUHD WUHQGXOXL WHQGLQ HL JHQHUDOH

Metode mecanice
0HWRGD PRGLILF

ULL PHGLL DEVROXWH

Pentru ajustarea termHQLORU VH XWLOL]HD]

UHOD LD

Y t = y 1 + (t 1 )

Metoda indicelui mediu:

( )

t 1

Yt = y1 I

5H]XOWDWHOH RE LQXWH SULYLQG DMXVWDUHD WHUPHQLORU SULQ DFHVWH GRX

PHWRGH VXQW SUH]HQWDWH

vQ WDEHOXO  FRORDQHOH  L 

Tabelul 6.4.
Valori ajustate prin:
Anul

yt

A
1992

1
120

1993

indicele mediu

PRGLILFDUHD PHGLHL DEVROXW

( )(

Y t = y 1 + (t 1 )

Yt = y1 I

t 1 )

Y 1 = 120

116

2
Y 1 = 120 + 7 , 25 0 = 120
Y 2 = 120 + 7 , 25 1 = 127 , 25

1994

122

Y 3 = 120 + 7 , 25 2 = 134 , 5

Y 3 = 120 1 , 0505

= 132 , 43

1995

144

Y 4 = 120 + 7 , 25 3 = 141 , 75

Y 4 = 120 1 , 0505

= 139 , 1

1996

145

Y 5 = 120 + 7 , 25 4 = 149 , 0

Y 5 = 120 1 , 0505

= 146 , 14

1997

164

Y 6 = 120 + 7 , 25 5 = 156 , 25

Y 6 = 120 1 , 0505

= 153 , 52

1998

175

Y 7 = 120 + 7 , 25 6 = 163 , 5

Y 7 = 120 1 , 0505

= 161 , 27

1999

176

Y 8 = 120 + 7 , 25 7 = 170 , 25

Y 8 = 120 1 , 0505

= 169 , 42

2000

178

Y 9 = 120 + 7 , 25 8 = 178

Y 9 = 120 1 , 0505

= 178

Total

1340

Y 2 = 120 1 , 0505 = 126 , 06

1340,5

1325,95

Metode analitice
'LQ FURQRJUDPD SUH]HQWDW
OLQLDU

ILJ  VH REVHUY

L SH ED]D SDUDEROHL GH JUDGXO GRL

3HQWUX DMXVWDUHD OLQLDU

Yt = a + b t i

VH XWLOL]HD]

UHOD LD

DMXVWDUHD VH SRDWH IDFH SULQ PHWRGD

Pentru calculul parametrilor a L b VH DSOLF meWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL S

2
[Y t ( a + b t i )]

WUDWH

= min

6LVWHPXO GH HFXD LL HVWH

n a + b t i = y i

a t i + b t i2 = t i y i

'DF

VH SXQH FRQGL LD FD

t i

= 0 sistemul devine:

na = yi

b t i2 = t i y i

a=

yi
n

; b=

t i y i
t i2

&DOFXOHOH QHFHVDUH UH]ROY ULL VLVWHPXOXL VXQW SUH]HQWDW

e n tabelul 6.5.

9 a = 1340

60 b = 538

a=

1340
= 148 , 89 ; b = 8 , 96
9

Deci:
Y i = 148 , 89 + 8 , 96 t i
Valorile ajustate sunt prezentate n tabelul 6.5., coloana 7.

Anul
A
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Total

yi
1
120
116
122
144
145
164
175
176
178
1340

t i2

2
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4

t i

=0

t i2

t i4

ti

4
256
81
16
1
0
1
16
81
256
t i4 = 708

16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
= 60

ti yi
5
-480
-348
-244
-144
0
164
350
528
712

t i2 y i

6
1920
1044
488
144
0
164
700
1584
2848
2
t i y i = 538 t i y i = 8892

Tabelul 6.5.
Valori ajustate prin
IXQF LD
OLQLDU

7
113,05
122,00
131,69
139,93
148,89
157,85
166,09
175,77
188,73

Y i

= 1340

SDUDEROLF

8
111,83
121,77
132,03
140,66
149,75
158,58
166,43
175,53
183,51

Y i

= 1340

Pentru trendul parabolic rela LD HVWH

Y i = a + b t i + c t i2
6LVWHPXO GH HFXD LL QRUPDOH SHQWUX FDOFXODUHD SDUDPHWULORU

n a + b t i + c t i2 = y i

2
3
a t i + b t i + c t i = t i y i

a t i2 + b t i3 + c t i4 = t i2 y i

t i

'DF

= 0 , sistemul devine:

n a + c t i2 = y i

2
b t i = t i y i

a t i2 + c t i4 = t i2 y i

Calculele sunt prezentate n tabelul 6.5.

Deci:
9 a + 60 c = 1340
a = 149 , 75

60 b = 538
b = 8 , 96

60 a + 708 c = 8892
c = 0 , 13

(FXD LD SHQWUX DMXVWDUHD SULQ WUHQGXO SDUDEROLF HVWH

Y t i = 149 , 75 + 8 , 96 t i 0 , 13 t i2

Valorile ajustate sunt prezentate n tabelul 6.5., coloana 8.

4.

&ULWHULLOH IRORVLWH SHQWUX DOHJHUHD PHWRGHL FDUH DMXVWHD]

FHO PDL ELQH VHULD SUH]HQWDW

sunt:

n
compararea volumului total empiric y i

i =1

cu cel teoretic

Yt
i =1

FRPSDUDUHD DEDWHULORU DEVROXWH DOH YDORULORU WHRUHWLFH DMXVWDWH ID

i =1

y i Yti

GH FHOH HPSLULFH

FRPSDUDUHD S WUDWHORU DEDWHULORU GLQWUH YDORULOH HPSLULFH L FHOH WHRUHWLFH

(y i
n

i =1

Yt i

FRPSDUDUHD FRHILFLHQ LORU GH YDULD LH FDOFXOD L GXS

(y i
n

v=

i =1

yi

100 =

i =1

100

sau

y
n

v =

Yt i

UHOD LLOH

yi

y i Yt i
n

100 =

100 ,

y
n

unde y =

yi
i =1

Calculele necesare sunt prezentate n tabelul 6.6..

6H UH LQH PHWRGD PRGHOXO GH DMXVWDUH SHQWUX FDUH FRHILFLHQWXO GH YDULD LH HVWH FHO PDL PLF

(tabelul 6.7.).

&DOFXOXO FRHILFLHQWXOXL GH YDULD LH

Tabelul 6.7.

Nr.
crt.
1
2
3
4

Metoda de ajustare prin:

PRGLILFDUHD PHGLH DEVROXW

indicele mediu
trend liniar
trend parabolic

(y i

Yt

523,80
576,83
442,40
367,76

V yt =

yt

7,62
8,01
7,01
6,39

yi

5,12
5,37
4,71
4,30

([WUDSRODUHD SUHYL]LRQDUHD SURGXF LHL GH DOXPLQLX SHQWUX XUP WRULL  DQL VH IDFH
FRQW F

100

LQkQG

VXQW DFHOHDL FRQGL LL 9DORULOH H[WUDSRODWH SULQ PHWRGHOH IRORVLWH OD DMXVWDUH VXQW SUH]HQWDWH

n tabelul 6.8..
Tabelul 6.8.
Nr.
Metoda de
crt.
ajustare prin:
2001
A
1
2
1
modificarea medie Y 2001 = 120 + 7 , 25 9 = 185 , 25
DEVROXW

Anii

Y 2002

2002
3
= 120 + 7 , 25 10 = 192 , 5

indicele mediu

Y 2001 = 120 (1 , 0505 )9 = 186 , 99

Y 2002 = 120 (1 , 0505 )10 = 196 , 43

IXQF LD OLQLDU

Y 2001 = 148 , 89 + 8 , 96 5 = 193 , 69

Y 2002 = 148 , 89 + 8 , 96 6 = 202 , 65

IXQF LD SDUDEROLF

Y 2001 = 149 , 75 + 8 , 96 5 0 , 13 25 = 189 , 5

Y 2002 = 149 , 75 + 8 , 96 6 0 , 13 36 = 198 , 83

2.

Se cunRVF
1991-1998:

XUP WRDUHOH GDWH SULYLQG YDORDUHD H[SRUWXULORU OD SURGXVHOH GLQ OHPQ vQ SHULRDGD

Tabelul 6.9.
1992

0RGLILF
ID

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

40

Anul

22

45

36

38

42

47

UL

GH DQXO

precendent
(mil. $)

Se cere:
1.

VH UHFRQVWLWXLH VHULD GH YDORUL DEVROXWH WLLQG F

YDORDUHD H[SRUWXOXL D FUHVFXW vQ

perioada 1991-1998, n medie, cu 18,84%;

2.
3.
4.

VH FDOFXOH]H LQGLFDWRULL PHGLL L V

VH LQWHUSUHWH]H

VH DMXVWH]H VHULD SULQWU

VH FDOFXOH]H FRHILFLHQWXO GH YDULD LH

-un procedeu analitic;

Rezolvare:
1.

'LQ GDWHOH SUH]HQWDWH UH]XOW

t
t =2

t 1

F 

= y t y 1 = y 1998 y 1991

40 + 22 + 45 + 36 + 38 + 42 + 47 = 270
'H DVHPHQHD VH WLH F 

R = 18 , 84 % I ( % ) = R + 100 = 18 , 84 + 100 = 118 , 84%

I = n1

y 98
y 91

=7

y 98
y 91

= 1 , 1884

Deci:

y 1998 y 1991 = 270

y 1991 = 115 mil.$

y 1998
7
y 1998 = 385 mil. $
= (1 , 1884 ) = 3 , 3478

y 1991

7HUPHQLL VHULHL VH FDOFXOHD]

DVWIHO

y 1991 = 115
y 1992 = 115 + 40 = 155


y 1997 = 296 + 42 = 338

y 1998 = 338 + 47 = 385
6HULD UHFRQVWLWXLW

HVWH SUH]HQWDW

vQ WDEHOXO 

Tabelul 6.10.
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

115

Anul
Export
produse din
lemn (mil. $)

155

177

222

258

296

338

385

2. Indicatorii medii

PRGLILFDUHD PHGLH DEVROXW 

t =2

t 1

n 1

y n y1
n 1

y 1998 y 1991
8 1

385 115
= 38 , 57 mil. $
7

Exportul a crescut n medie cu 47,5 mil. lei.

nivelul mediu:
n

yt
y=

Q DFHDVW

t =1

SHULRDG

1946
= 243 , 25 mil. $
8

-au exportat n medie, anual, produse n valoare de 243,25 mil. $.

5LWPXO PHGLX D IRVW GDW L SH ED]D OXL V

-a calculat indicele mediu.

3.

3HQWUX DMXVWDUHD SULQ PHWRGD DQDOLWLF

VH FRQVWUXLHWH FURQRJUDPD KLVWRULRJUDPD

450
400
exportul (mil. $)

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995
anii

Figura 6.2.
*UDILFXO VXJHUHD]

XQ WUHQG OLQLDU

(FXD LD GUHSWHL

Yt i = a + bt i
6LVWHPXO GH HFXD LL QRUPDOH

n a + b t i = y i

a t i + b t i2 = t i y i

&X FRQGL LD FD

t i

=0

VLVWHPXO GH HFXD LL GHYLQH

na = yi

b t i2 = t i y i

yi
i =1
1946

a = n = 8 = 243 , 25

b = y i t i = 3198 = 19 , 04

t i2 168

1996

1997

1998

&DOFXOHOH QHFHVDUH GHWHUPLQ ULL SDUDPHWULORU L YDORULOH DMXVWDWH WHRUHWLFH VXQW SUH]HQWDWH vQ

tabelul 6.11.
Tabelul 6.11.

yi

ti

t i2

1
115
155
177
222
258
296
338
385

2
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7

3
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49

Anii
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

t i

t i2

=0

Y t i = 243 , 25 + 19 , 04 t i

yi ti
4
805
775
531
222
258
888
1690
2695

yi ti

Yt

5
109,97
148,05
186,13
224,21
262,29
300,37
338,45
376,53

(y i

= 1946

yi

= 1946

4.

Total

(y

Yt i

6
25,3
48,3
83,36
4,88
18,4
19,1
0,2
71,74

)= 271 , 28

&DOFXOXO FRHILFLHQWXOXL GH FRUHOD LH VH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO UHOD LHL

v yt =

Yt

= 168

100 , unde

yt

= 3198

(yi

Yt i

Yt i

= 5 , 82

3HQWUX DEDWHUHD HURDUHD PHGLH S WUDWLF  FDOFXOHOH VX

nt prezentate n tabelul 6.11, coloana 6.

v yt =

3.
6H

vQGHOXQJDW

FXQRVF

5 , 82
243 , 25

100 = 2 , 39 %

XUP WRDUHOH

GDWH

FX

SULYLUH

OD

vQ]HVWUDUHD

DXWRPRELOH   ORFXLWRUL vQ SHULRDGD 

SRSXOD LHL

FX

EXQXUL

GH

IRORVLQ

1998.
Tabelul 6.12.

1992

Anul
0RGLILF

DEVROXWH ID

GH

anul precedent
(buc.)
0RGLILF

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

6,5

8,3

9,3

7,3

8,2

8,9

8,9

6,7

10,58

12,22

12,20

8,54

8,84

8,81

8,10

5,64

UL

UL

UHODWLYH ID

GH

anul precedent
(%)

Se cere:
1.
2.

VH UHFRQVWLWXLH VHULD GH YDORU

VH FDOFXOH]H WR L LQGLFDWRULL DEVROX L L UHODWLYL

i absolute;

Rezolvare:
1.

3HQWUX UHFRQVWLWXLUHD VHULHL FURQRORJLFH VH XWLOL]HD]

PRGLILFDUHD UHODWLY

At

t 1

t
Rt

L YDORDUHD DEVROXW

t 1

t 1

100

UHOD LD vQWUH PRGLILFDUHD DEVROXW 

D XQXL SURFHQW GLQ ULWPXO PRGLILF ULL

y t 1
100

De exemplu,
A 92

A 92

91

91

92

91

R 92

91

y 91

100

y 91
6,5
= 0 , 614 =
10 , 58
100

y 91 = 0 , 614 100 = 61 , 4 buc

Pentru anul 1999 valoarea indicatorului se poate calcula astfel:
y 99 = y 98 + 99

98

= 118 , 8 + 6 , 7 = 125 , 5

sau
y 99 = y 98 I 99

2.

6HULD UHFRQVWLWXLW

= 118 , 8 1 , 0564 = 125 , 5

98

L LQGLFDWRULL DEVROX L L UHODWLYL VXQW SUH]HQWD L vQ WDEHOXO 

Tabelul 6.13.

Anul
A
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

yt
(auto / 1000
locuitori)
1
61,4
67,9
76,2
85,5
92,8
101,0
109,9
118,8
125,5

,QGLFDWRUL DEVROX L

2
6,5
14,8
24,1
31,4
39,6
48,5
57,4
64,1

t 1

3
6,5
8,3
9,3
7,3
8,2
8,9
8,9
6,7

Indicatori relativi

I t 1(% )
4
100
110,52
124,10
139,25
151,14
164,49
178,99
193,48
204,39

It

t 1 ( %

5
110,52
112,22
112,20
108,53
108,83
108,81
108,10
105,64

Rt

6
10,52
24,10
39,25
51,14
64,49
78,99
93,48
104,39

Rt

t 1

7
10,58
12,22
12,20
8,54
8,84
8,81
8,10
5,64

At

8
0,614
0,614
0,614
0,614
0,614
0,614
0,614
0,614

At

t 1

9
0,614
0,679
0,762
0,855
0,928
1,010
1,099
1,188

4.

Q DQLL  L  V DX vQUHJLVWUDW XUP WRDUHOH GDWH SULYLQG VWRFXULOH H[LVWHQWH vQ GHSR]LWHOH

XQHL VRFLHW

L FRPHUFLDOH WDEHOXO

6.14.).
Tabelul 6.14.

1999
'DWD vQUHJLVWU

ULL

2000
'DWD vQUHJLVWU

Cantitatea (kg)
180
200
250
270
240

1 ianuarie
1 aprilie
1 iulie
1 octombrie
31 decembrie

ULL

Cantitatea (kg)
240
270
240
260
280

1 ianuarie
25 martie
1 august
20 octombrie
31 decembrie

Se cere:
1.
2.

VH UHSUH]LQWH JUDILF VHULLOH FURQRORJLFH

VH FDOFXOH]H VWRFXO PHGLX vQ FHL GRL DQL

Rezolvare:
1. Seria se timp pentru anul 1999 este o serie de momente cu intervale egale ntre
PRPHQWH 5HSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF VH IDFH SULQWU-o cronograP ILJ 
Seria din anul 2000 este tot o serie de momente cu intervale neegale ntre momente.
3HQWUX UHSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF

VH IRORVHWH XQ JUDILF SULQ FRORDQH ILJ 

cantitatea (kg)

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1.01.99

1.04.99

1.10.99

1.07.99

GDWD vQUHJLVWU

)LJXUD  9DULD LD VWRFXULORU GH P

cantitatea (kg)

300
250

31.12.99

ULL

UIXUL vQ DQXO 

270
240

240

260

280

200
150
100
50
0
1.01.2000

25.03.2000

1.08.2000
GDWD vQUHJLVWU

)LJXUD  9DULD LD VWRFXULORU GH P

20.10.2000

ULL

UIXUL vQ DQXO 

31.12.2000

2. Stocul mediu
3HQWUX SULPD VHULH VH FDOFXOHD]

y1
y cr 1999 =

y cr 2000 =

R PHGLH FURQRORJLF

+ y2 + y3 + y4 +
n 1

y1

VLPSO

LDU SHQWUX VHULD D GRXD R

SRQGHUDW 

PHGLH FURQRORJLF

d1
2

+ y2

d1 + d 2
2

y5

180
240
+ 200 + 250 + 200 +
2
2
2
=
= 232 , 5 kg
5 1

+ y3

d2 +d3
2

+ y4

d3 +d4
2

+ y5

d4
2

n 1

d i
i =1

unde d i

VXQW LQWHUYDOHOH GH WLPS GLVWDQ HOH GLQWUH PRPHQWH

d 1 = 84 ; d 2 = 126 ; d 3 = 79 ; d 4 = 71 .

240
y cr 2000 =
=

84
84 + 126
126 + 79
79 + 71
71
+ 280
+ 270
+ 240
+ 260
2
2
2
2
2
360

92605
= 256 , 86 kg
360

5.
Ponderea sectorului privat n PIB a evoluat astfel n perioada 1991 - 1992.
Tabelul 6.15.
1992

0RGLILF
ID

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2,8

Anul

11,2

15,3

21,7

31,3

37

38,4

39,7

UL

GH

anul
1991(%)

Se cere:
1.

VH UHFRQVWLWXLH VHULD GDF

SRQGHUHD VHFWRUXOXL SULYDW vQ 3,% D FUHVFXW vQ DQXO  ID

de anul 1991 de 2,326 ori;

2.
3.

VH UHSUH]LQWH JUDILF VHULD UHFRQVWLWXLW 

VH H[WUDSROH]H YDORULOH SHQWUX DQLL  L 

Rezolvare:
1.

'LQ GDWHOH SUH]HQWDWH UH]XOW

F 

y 96 y 91 = 31 , 3
y 91 = 23 , 6

y 96
y 96 = 54 , 9
= 2 , 326

y 91
6HULD GH GDWH UHFRQVWLWXLW

HVWH SUH]HQWDW

vQ WDEHOXO  L V D RE LQXW DVWIHO

y 91 = 23 , 6
y 92 = 23 , 6 + 2 , 8 = 63 , 3


y 98 = 23 , 6 + 39 , 7 = 63 , 3

Tabelul 6.16.

2.

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

23,6

26,4

34,8

38,9

45,3

54,9

60,6

62,0

63,3

5HSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF

VH IDFH SULQ FURQRJUDP

KLVWRJUDP 

70

ponderea sectorului privat

n PIB (%)

Anii
Ponderea
sectorului
privat n
PIB (%)

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

anii
Figura 6.4.

3. Pentru extrapolarea valoriORU SHQWUX DQLL  L  IRORVLP R PHWRG

DQDOLWLF

GH DMXVWDUH FRQVLGHUkQG F

FHOH GRX

PHWRGH DMXVWHD]

PHFDQLF

L XQD

FHO PDL ELQH IHQRPHQXO

0HWRGD PHFDQLF

0HWRGD PRGLILF

ULL PHGLL DEVROXWH

5HOD LD GH DMXVWDUH HVWH

y t i = y 1 + (t 1 )

=
'DF

t 1

n 1

y n y1
n 1

IHQRPHQXO VH GHVI RDU

y 99 y 91
8

63 , 3 23 , 6
8

= 4 , 9625 %

vQ DFHOHDL FRQGL LL YDORULOH SHQWUX DQLL  L 

vor fi:

y 2001 = y 1 + (11 1 ) = 23 , 6 + 4 , 9625 10 = 73 , 225 %

y 2002 = y 1 + (12 1 ) = 23 , 6 + 4 , 9625 11 = 78 , 1875 %
0HWRGD DQDOLWLF
*UDILFXO VXJHUHD]

XQ WUHQG OLQLDU

y ti = a + bt i
ApOLFkQG PHWRGD
normale devine:

FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH L DSRL FRQGL LD

na = yi

b t i2 = t i y i

t i

= 0

VLVWHPXO GH HFXD LL

y i = 409 , 8 = 45 , 53
a =
9
n

y i t i = 332 = 5 , 55

b =

t 2 60

Calculele pentru determinarea parametrilor a L b sunt prezentate n tabelul 6.17..

Tabelul 6.17.
yi

ti

t i2

1
23,6
26,4
34,8
38,9
45,3
54,9
60,6
62,0
63,3

2
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4

3
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16

Anii
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Total

yi

= 409 , 8

t i

t i2

=0

Y t i = 45 , 53 + 5 , 55 t i

yiti
4
-94,9
-79,2
-69,6
-38,9
0
54,9
121,2
186,0
253,2

= 60

yi ti

Y t

= 333 , 2

5
23,32
28,88
34,43
39,98
45,53
51,08
56,63
62,19
67,74
i

= 409 , 8

Pentru anLL  L  YDORULOH YRU IL

Y 2001 = 45 , 53 + 5 , 55 6 = 78 , 83 %
Y 2002 = 45 , 53 + 5 , 55 7 = 84 , 38 %
(VWH GLILFLO GH SUHVXSXV F

3 ani (1997



IHQRPHQXO XUPHD]

PRGLILF ULOH

FRPSDUD LH FX DQLL SUHFHGHQ L

DX

IRVW

DFHHDL HYROX LH
UHGXVH

VH REVHUY

FUHWHULOH

DX

IRVW

vQ XOWLPLL

IRDUWH

PLFL

PROBLEME PROPUSE

1.

&RQVXPXO PHGLX DQXDO GH ODSWH L SURGXVH GLQ ODSWH O  ORFXLWRU GLQ 5RPkQLD D FXQRVFXW vQ

perioada 1989  XUP

WRDUHD HYROX LH

Tabelul 6.18.
1989
135,9

Anul
Consum (l)

1990
140,1

1991
163,3

1992
163,7

1993
176,9

1994
179,5

1995
188,6

1996
192,7

1997
192,4

1998
194,4

Se cere:
1.
2.
3.
4.

VH UHSUH]LQWH JUDILF VHULD FURQRORJLF 

VH FDOFXOH]H LQGLFDWRULL DEVROX L UHODWLYL L PHGLL FH FDUDFWHUL]HD]

VH DMXVWH]H VHULD SULQ PHWRGH PHFDQLFH L DQDOLWLFH

VH SUHFL]H]H PHWRGD FDUH DMXVWHD]

VHULD FURQRORJLF 

FHO PDL ELQH WHQGLQ D GH HYROX LH D IHQRPHQXOXL

2.

Dinamica exporturilor produsului Y n perioada 1989  D IRVW XUP

WRDUHD

Tabelul 6.19.
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

122,11

107,08

77,94

148,11

205,73

85,34

127,77

97,62

103,23

136,86

92,83

Anul
Dinamica
ID

GH

anul
precedent
(%)

WLLQG F

1.
2.
3.

YDORDUHD H[SRUWXOXL vQ DQXO  D IRVW GH  PLO

VH UHFRQVWLWXLH VHULD GH GDWH

VH FDOFXOH]H WR L LQGLFDWRULL DEVROX L UHODWLYL L PHGLL

VH FHUH

VH DMXVWH]H VHULD SULQ PHWRGH PHFDQLFH

3.

3RSXOD LD RFXSDW

WRWDO D 5RPkQLHL vQWUH 

 OD VIkULWXO DQXOXL HVWH SUH]HQWDW

vQ

tabelul 6.20..
Tabelul 6.20.
Anul

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

10,840

10,786

10,458

10,062

10,011

9,493

9,379

9,023

8,813

8,420

3RSXOD LD
RFXSDW

(mii persoane)

Se cere:
1.
2.
3.

VH UHSUH]LQWH JUDILF VHULD

VH FDOFXOH]H LQGLFDWRULL PHGLL

VH DMXVWH]H VHULD SULQWU R PHWRG

DQDOLWLF

L V

VH FDOFXOH]H HURDUHD PHGLH S WUDWLF

DMXVW ULL L FRHILFLHQWXO GH YDULD LH

4.

&UHWHULOH

vQUHJLVWUDWH

SULYLQG

perioada 1991  DX IRVW XUP

YDORDUHD

H[SRUWXULORU

5RPkQLHL

OD

SURGXVHOH

1992

&UHWHUL ID

1993

1994

1995

1996

OHPQ

vQ

22

45

36

38

Tabelul 6.21.
1998

1997

40

Anul

GH

WRDUHOH

42

GH

anul precedent
(mil. $)

47

Se cere:
1.

VH UHFRQVWLWXLH VHULD GH YDORUL DEVROXWH WLLQG F

 ID

2.
3.

GH DQXO  FX 

YDORDUHD H[SRUWXOXL D FUHVFXW vQ DQXO

VH FDOFXOH]H LQGLFDWRULL PHGLL L V

VH DMXVWH]H VHULD SULQWU XQ SURFHGHX PHFDQLF L XQXO DQDOLWLF

VH L

nterpreteze;

DUJXPHQWD L SURFHGHXO

ales;
4.

SUHFL]D L FDUH GLQ FHOH GRX

DFHDVW

SURFHGHH DMXVWHD]

FHO PDL ELQH HYROX LD H[SRUWXULORU vQ

SHULRDG 

5.

6H FXQRVF XUP WRDUHOH GDWH SULYLQG G

inamica PIB (1991 = 100).

Tabelul 6.22.

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

88,17

Anii
Dinamica PIB
(%)

82,24

88,56

97,02

92,91

85,16

87,62

85,39

Se cere:
1.

VH

UHFRQVWLWXLH

VHULD

GH

GDWH

WLLQG

vQ

DQXO



YDORDUHD

2138,2 mld. OHL vQ SUH XULOH DQXOXL 

2.
3.

VH UHSUH]LQWH JUDILF VHULD GH GDWH

VH FDOFXOH]H LQGLFDWRULL DEVROX L UHODWLYL L PHGLL L V

VH LQWHUSUHWH]H

3,%

IRVW

GH

6.

6H FXQRVF XUP WRDUHOH GDWH SULYLQG HYROX LD XQXL IHQRPHQ vQ SHULRDGD 

1998:
Tabelul 6.22.

1992

DEVROXW

ID

GH

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

25

Anul
Modificarea

32

28

22

31

24

30

anul precedent

Se cere:
1.

V
ID

2.
3.

VH UHFRQVWLWXLH VHULD GH YDORUL DEVROXWH FXQRVFkQG F

GH  FX 

IHQRPHQXO D FUHVFXW vQ DQXO 

VH FDOFXOH]H LQGLFDWRULL DEVROX L UHODWLYL L PHGLL

VH DMXVWH]H VHULD SULQWU XQ SURFHGHX PHFDQLF L XQXO DQDOLWLF DUJXPHQWD L SURFHGHHOH

alese;
4.

SUHFL]D L

FDUH

GLQ

PHWRGHOH

XWLOL]DWH

DMXVWHD]

SHULRDG 

5.

H[WUDSROD L VHULD SHQWUX XUP WRUL

i doi ani.

FHO

PDL

ELQH

IHQRPHQXO

vQ

DFHDVW