Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
PROIECT ECONOMETRIE
Bucureti
2014
1.Definire tem
Se iau n considerare date privind PIB-ul Estoniei, ncepnd cu primul trimestru al anului
2007,pn n al doilea trimestru al anului 2014. Se cunosc valorile pentru PIB,consum
final,formare brut de capital i export net.
Produsul intern brut trimestrial , principalul agregat macroeconomic al contabilitii
naionale, reprezint rezultatul final al activitii de producie al unitilor productive rezidente,
n decursul unei perioade, respectiv un trimestru.
Metoda cheltuielilor:
PIB = CF+FBC+E-I,
unde:
CF = consumul final efectiv;
FBC = formarea brut de capital;
E = exportul de bunuri i servicii;
I = importul de bunuri i servicii.
Export net= Export-Import
Sursa: http://www.insse.ro/cms/ro/content/produsul-intern-brut
2.nregistare variabile
PIB Estonia
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
3,823.5
3,948.0
4,107.7
4,192.0
4,106.4
4,158.7
4,098.1
3,876.4
3,635.6
3,478.5
3,411.0
3,448.3
3,489.8
3,563.1
3,682.5
3,795.0
3,918.8
4,019.6
4,092.4
4,166.7
4,241.4
4,330.7
4,408.4
4,479.6
4,578.2
4,619.9
4,677.6
4,737.7
4,779.7
4,836.8
Consum final
2,695.5
2,784.0
2,867.9
2,984.7
3,007.7
3,051.9
3,023.3
2,927.6
2,766.9
2,662.7
2,582.2
2,557.9
2,635.3
2,637.2
2,686.3
2,731.7
2,755.0
2,840.2
2,869.8
2,935.3
2,998.1
3,042.2
3,134.4
3,190.0
3,268.6
3,323.1
3,377.4
3,421.8
3,460.2
3,509.3
Formare brut
de capital
1,557.2
1,551.6
1,574.2
1,539.4
1,368.5
1,312.3
1,204.4
999.7
746.7
588.2
654.4
644.8
639.5
755.7
726.8
779.2
1,095.6
1,089.6
1,162.0
1,032.3
1,047.7
1,206.5
1,274.7
1,376.7
1,105.1
1,184.0
1,245.5
1,176.8
1,243.7
1,261.6
Export net
-433.9
-402.8
-369.8
-276.6
-185.7
-160.4
-209.9
-99.8
109.4
225.3
243.8
191.2
168.9
172.9
303.7
293.2
41.9
26.0
148.5
128.1
59.2
4.4
-68.1
-117.3
116.3
33.7
-25.3
23.4
79.5
135.9
3.
Din grafice se observ c cea mai puternic legtur exist ntre PIB i consum final.
Punctele sunt foarte apropiate de dreapt. n celelalte grefice,punctele sunt mprtiate.
Pe acest caz,
PIB=156,8698+1,151914*Consum_final+0,711735*Export_net+0,756995*Formare_brut_de_capital
+t
b0=156,8698
b1=1,151914
b2=0,711735
b3=0,756995
a) Testare parametrii
Ho: b0=0
H1:b0 0
Prob bo=0,1788
Prob=0.05
Prob bo>0,05 : se accept H0; termenul liber nu difer semnificativ de 0
H0:b1=0
H1:b1 0
Prob b1=0,0000
Prob b1<0,05: se respinge Ho; b1 difer semnificativ de 0
Ho:b2=0
H1:b2 0
Prob b2=0,0000
Prob b2<0.05: se respinge Ho; b2 difer semnificativ de 0
b) Construirea de intervale de ncredere pentru parametrii
bo-t tab bo*bo<bo<bo+t tab bo*bo
156,8698-113,539*2,77<bo<156,8698+113,539*2,77
-157,63323<bo<471,37283
b1-t tab b1*b1<b1<b1+t tab b1*b1
1,151914-2,77*0,056786<b1<1,151914+2,77*0,056786
0,9946168<b1<1,30921122
n4
0,148634
1. t= 0,97790793 *
0,148634
0,507584
2. t= 0,74235848 *5,196152=3,55284368
0,855644
3. t= 0,26787335 *5,196152=-16,5976
t tab=2,77
Ho:r=0
H1:r0
t calc 1<t tab;accept Ho;r nu difer semnificaiv de 0
t calc 2>t tab;resping Ho; r difer semnificativ de 0
t calc 3>t tab; resping Ho; r difer semnificativ de 0.
.
r=
R2
0,984330 =0,992134
r
t calc= 1r 2 *
0,992134
n4 = 0,0157 *5,196152=
t tab=2,77
t calc > t tab; resping Ho; r difer semnificativ de 0.
0,992134
0,1253 *5,196152=41,14348
5.Testare ipoteze
a) Testarea normalitii erorilor
Ho:S=0,K=3
H1: S 0, K 3
n
(K3)2
2
S
Jarque Bera= 6 (
+
4
t resid(-1)=2,717243
t tab=2,77
t resid(-1)<t tab; se accept Ho; nu exist autocorelare de ordin 1
t resid(-2)=-0,000799
t resid(-2)< t tab; se accept Ho; nu exist autocorelare de ordin 2
Prob cf^2<0,05
Deja un ai difer de 0, deci nu exist homoscedasticitate.
=>heteroscedasticitate
r consum/export=-0,148634
r consum/formare=0,507584
r export/formare=-0,855644
1
FG=-[n-1- 6 (2p+5)]ln|R|
p=nr de variabile independente=3
1
FG=-(30-1- 6 (2*3+5)]ln(0,117246)=58,236
2 =12,838
2
FG> ; exist multicoliniaritate; corelaie puternic
6 Previzionare
Presupunem c, consumul final are o valoare de 3000,formarea brut de capital 1300 , iar
exportul net 500 (milioane euro).
PIB0 =156,8698+1,151914*3000+0,711735*500+0,756995*1300=4952,5728
Folosind funcia TREND n Excel, am obinut urmtoarele previziuni pentru urmtoarele
2 trimestre:
Se iau n considerare datele privind cursul de schimb euro-leu, perioada 09 dec. 2014-22
dec. 2014.
1.
Data
22 dec.2014
19 dec.2014
18 dec.2014
17 dec.2014
16 dec.2014
15 dec.2014
12 dec.2014
11 dec.2014
10 dec.2014
EUR
4,4674
4,4750
4,4705
4,4738
4,4738
4,4788
4,4645
4,4546
4,4415
9 dec.2014
4,4386
2.Analiz