Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
2013
2014
2015
Volumul
vinzarilor
32
48
64
58
40
52
74
66
44
60
82
74
Volumul vinzarilor
90
80
70
60
Volumul vinzarilor
50
40
30
20
10
0
I
II
III
IV
II
III
IV
II
III
IV
Y=a+bt
n*a+t*b=yt ;
(t)*a+(t2)*b=t*yt ;
12a+78b=694 ;
a=(694-78b)/12
78a+65b=4896 ;
78*(694-78b)/12+650b=4896;
a=40,33
b=2,6923
Y=40,33+2,6923t
b)S se determine abaterile sezoniere i coeficienii sezonieri.
St=Y - Yt ;
2013
2014
2015
2016
Volumul
vinzarilo
Y=40,33+2,6923
Perioada,trimestul r
t
t*yt
t*t
t
S=Y-Yt
S1,2,3,4,
I
32
1
32
1
43,022
-11,022
-15,1233
II
48
2
96
4
45,714
2,286
-3,14867
III
64
3
192
9
48,406
15,594
14,1593
IV
58
4
232
16
51,098
6,902
4,134
I
40
5
200
25
53,79
-13,79
-15,1233
II
52
6
312
36
56,482
-4,482
-3,14867
III
74
7
518
49
59,174
14,826
14,1593
IV
66
8
528
64
61,866
4,134
4,134
I
44
9
396
81
64,558
-20,558
-15,1233
II
60
10
600 100
67,25
-7,25
-3,14867
III
82
11
902 121
69,942
12,058
14,1593
IV
74
12
888 144
72,634
1,366
4,134
I
II
III
IV
694
78 4896 650
693,936
0,064
S1=(-11,022+-13,79+-20,558)/3=-15,1233
S2=(2,286+-4,482+-7,25)/3=-3,14867
S3=(15,594+14,826+12,058)/3=14,1593
S4=(6,902+4,134+1,366)/3=4,134
; =0,2 ;
C0=a=40,33
=0,6 ;
; T0=b=2,6923 ;
1,99
48
1,75
69
1,35
32
1,24
35
0,89
82
0,89
70
1,08
27
0,83
10,570
2
3,3366
20,016
7
11,923
6
4,8197
4,8604
22,113
8
14,567
5
40,276
4
42,593
5
45,706
3
44,819
1
13
0,13
16
0,56
87
1,07
75
0,68
46
2
0,4984
9,4772
23,384
0
17,690
7
Y14=44,8191+0,6846*2-0,4984=45,6899
Astfel prognoza pentru anul 2016 in semestrul I si II este urmatoarea:
2013
2014
2015
2016
Perioada,trimestu
l
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
Volumul
vinzarilor
32
48
64
58
40
52
74
66
44
60
82
74
60,0709
45,6899
39?
r1
0.9982 initial
0.4304 r1 xt
r1zt
0.8361 (a1)
b. Obiem b1= -0.5694 si b2= -1.7562 , deci alegem cea mai mica valoare dupa
modul.
Depistam valoarea lui zt dupa formula : Zt=Xt-b1*Zt-1 , apoi calculam
coeficientul de autocorelatie.
1375.0215
yt+2prog
1362.2553
yt+3prog
1357.1915
yt+4prog
1358.5676