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Date statistice ale firmei SC "COLHIDA" SRL

perioada: - Octombrie 2005 - Aprilie 2007 -

Perioada
Octombrie 2005
Noiembrie 2005
Decembrie 2005
Ianuarie 2006
Februarie 2006
Martie 2006
Aprilie 2006
Mai 2006
Iunie 2006
Iulie 2006
Augut 2006
Septembrie 2006
Octombrie 2006
Noiembrie 2006
Decembrie 2006
Ianuarie 2007
Februarie 2007
Martie 2007
Aprilie 2007

Cifra de
afaceri

Profit
brut

Cheltuieli
salariale

Discount
promotional

Cheltuieli
publicitare

Cheltuieli
regie

x1

x2

x3

x4

x5

634.68

46.25

15.35

31.47

25.91

90.59

751.75

48.56

14.01

16.70

32.43

107.28

846.94

18.23

15.93

23.41

34.16

120.91

587.85

68.13

14.01

12.67

20.15

83.87

431.05

34.16

10.75

17.46

16.12

61.41

696.09

46.06

12.67

0.00

30.52

139.14

967.66

40.88

14.01

20.73

31.09

322.42

732.94

17.85

12.67

14.59

31.28

244.12

824.48

23.99

14.01

0.00

34.55

137.22

1041.16

37.42

15.35

28.02

37.62

148.55

625.27

45.48

12.67

8.83

25.91

89.24

1077.24

61.61

15.35

6.33

44.14

153.73

1270.70

24.57

15.93

0.00

50.28

181.36

867.86

22.07

12.67

12.86

46.06

123.79

939.44

61.61

12.67

0.00

45.29

134.15

1174.55

19.58

15.35

7.48

51.63

167.74

1145.95

33.59

15.35

0.00

50.28

127.24

1206.79
1439.01

20.34
75.42

15.35
15.35

4.80
0.00

51.82
54.12

172.34
205.55

* Datele sunt exprimate in mii RON

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.977608805
R Square
0.955718975

Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.938687811
65.98571416
19

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
X Variable 4
X Variable 5

2.160368656

5
13
18
Coefficients
-561.7441772
1.660298967
47.04489529
-1.018747852
16.10423301
0.975168649

SS
1221675.143
56603.48815
1278278.631

MS
244335.0285
4354.114473

F
56.11589453

Significance F
2.42481E-08

Standard Error
t Stat
161.636427 -3.475356313
0.908261077 1.827997487
14.60890487 3.220288975
2.156851869 -0.472330931
2.360744659 6.821675081
0.274997275 3.546102955

P-value
0.004103499
0.090582575
0.006700695
0.644521287
1.22162E-05
0.003583057

Lower 95%
-910.9384472
-0.301879792
15.48427516
-5.678343017
11.00415425
0.381073157

Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-212.5499071 -910.938
-212.55
3.622477726 -0.30188 3.622478
78.60551542 15.48428 78.60552
3.640847313 -5.67834 3.640847
21.20431177 11.00415 21.20431
1.569264142 0.381073 1.569264

y
634.68
751.75
846.94
587.85
431.05
696.09
967.66
732.94
824.48
1041.16
625.27
1077.24
1270.70
867.86
939.44
1174.55
1145.95
1206.79
1439.01

x2

x4

15.35
14.01
15.93
14.01
10.75
12.67
14.01
12.67
14.01
15.35
12.67
15.35
15.93
12.67
12.67
15.35
15.35
15.35
15.35

25.91
32.43
34.16
20.15
16.12
30.52
31.09
31.28
34.55
37.62
25.91
44.14
50.28
46.06
45.29
51.63
50.28
51.82
54.12

x5
90.59
107.28
120.91
83.87
61.41
139.14
322.42
244.12
137.22
148.55
89.24
153.73
181.36
123.79
134.15
167.74
127.24
172.34
205.55

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.970036
R Square
0.94097
Adjusted R Square
0.929164
Standard Error
70.92589
Observations
19
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 1202821 400940.5 79.70219 1.92E-09
15 75457.23 5030.482
18 1278279

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
-477.766 168.1935 -2.84057 0.012401 -836.262
-119.27 -836.262
-119.27
X Variable 1 44.33286 13.66416 3.244463 0.005445 15.20839 73.45732 15.20839 73.45732
X Variable 2 16.60351 1.82502 9.097713 1.71E-07 12.71357 20.49344 12.71357 20.49344
X Variable 3 0.906879 0.292208 3.103537 0.007265 0.284052 1.529706 0.284052 1.529706

3.287382

Fisher

model global semnificativ

Upper 95.0%

y
634.68
751.75
846.94
587.85
431.05
696.09
967.66
732.94
824.48
1041.16
625.27
1077.24
1270.70
867.86
939.44
1174.55
1145.95
1206.79
1439.01

x2

x4

15.35
14.01
15.93
14.01
10.75
12.67
14.01
12.67
14.01
15.35
12.67
15.35
15.93
12.67
12.67
15.35
15.35
15.35
15.35

25.91
32.43
34.16
20.15
16.12
30.52
31.09
31.28
34.55
37.62
25.91
44.14
50.28
46.06
45.29
51.63
50.28
51.82
54.12

x5
90.59
107.28
120.91
83.87
61.41
139.14
322.42
244.12
137.22
148.55
89.24
153.73
181.36
123.79
134.15
167.74
127.24
172.34
205.55

SUMMARY OUTPUT

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.943639
R Square 0.890454
Adjusted R Square
0.835681
Standard Error
72.96464
Observations
10

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.983104
R Square 0.966494
Adjusted R Square
0.94639
Standard Error
55.88665
Observations
9

ANOVA

ANOVA
df

Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3
259652 86550.67 16.25719 0.002755
6 31943.03 5323.838
9 291595.1

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
-265.241 230.1459 -1.15249 0.29296 -828.388 297.906 -828.388 297.906
X Variable 132.78317 20.50302 1.598944 0.160949 -17.3859 82.95224 -17.3859 82.95224
X Variable 215.21654 5.215355 2.917641 0.026713 2.455022 27.97805 2.455022 27.97805
X Variable 30.788066 0.356952 2.207762 0.069357 -0.08537 1.661497 -0.08537 1.661497

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.970036
R Square
0.94097
Adjusted R Square
0.929164
Standard Error
70.92589
Observations
19
ANOVA
df
Regression

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1202821 400940.5 79.70219 1.92E-09

df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 450464.8 150154.9 48.07546 0.000414
5 15616.59 3123.318
8 466081.4

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept
-541.072 234.0487 -2.31179
X Variable 149.57276 21.50882 2.304764
X Variable 29.205444 4.007689 2.296946
X Variable 33.154973 1.086367 2.90415

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
0.068754 -1142.71 60.56971 -1142.71 60.56971
0.069359 -5.71742 104.8629 -5.71742 104.8629
0.070039 -1.09665 19.50754 -1.09665 19.50754
0.033628 0.362378 5.947568 0.362378 5.947568

Residual
Total

15 75457.23 5030.482
18 1278279

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
-477.766 168.1935 -2.84057 0.012401 -836.262
-119.27 -836.262
-119.27
X Variable 144.33286 13.66416 3.244463 0.005445 15.20839 73.45732 15.20839 73.45732
X Variable 216.60351 1.82502 9.097713 1.71E-07 12.71357 20.49344 12.71357 20.49344
X Variable 30.906879 0.292208 3.103537 0.007265 0.284052 1.529706 0.284052 1.529706

1.6131 Fc
3.35669 Ft

Chow

H0-nu putem garanta

y
634.68
751.75
846.94
587.85
431.05
696.09
967.66
732.94
824.48
1041.16
625.27
1077.24
1270.70
867.86
939.44
1174.55
1145.95
1206.79
1439.01

x2

x4

15.35
14.01
15.93
14.01
10.75
12.67
14.01
12.67
14.01
15.35
12.67
15.35
15.93
12.67
12.67
15.35
15.35
15.35
15.35

25.91
32.43
34.16
20.15
16.12
30.52
31.09
31.28
34.55
37.62
25.91
44.14
50.28
46.06
45.29
51.63
50.28
51.82
54.12

x5

rx2x4

0.557400434

90.59
107.28
120.91
83.87
61.41
139.14
322.42
244.12
137.22
148.55
89.24
153.73
181.36
123.79
134.15
167.74
127.24
172.34
205.55

rx2x5
rx4x5

0.214288596
0.351489381

1.00
0.56
0.21

0.56
1.00
0.35

chi calc
chi teoretic

12.59158724

Farrar Glaube
0.21
0.35
1.00

D=

0.603832

-0.50446

19.261247

r^2(YX1.X2X3)
r^2(YX2.X1X3)
r^2(YX3.X1X2)

= 0.412376
= 0.846576
= 0.391035

r(YX1.X2X3)
r(YX2.X1X3)
r(YX3.X1X2)

= 0.642165
= 0.920096
= 0.625328

Met tuturor regresiilor posibile


ryx2
ryx4
ryx5

0.689678
0.927211 x4 cea mai puternic corelata cu y
0.512729

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.970036
R Square
0.94097
Adjusted R Square
0.929164
Standard Error
70.92589
Observations
19

Regresia lui Y cu x4
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.927211
R Square 0.859721
Adjusted R Square
0.851469
Standard Error
102.7035
Observations
19

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 1202821 400940.5 79.70219 1.92E-09
15 75457.23 5030.482
18 1278279

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 1098962 1098962 104.1867 1.15E-08
17 179316.2 10548.01
18 1278279

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%
Intercept
102.8044 82.37523 1.248001 0.228947 -70.9922
X Variable 1 21.45907 2.102349 10.20719 1.15E-08 17.0235

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept
-477.766 168.1935 -2.84057 0.012401 -836.262
-119.27 -836.262
X Variable 1 44.33286 13.66416 3.244463 0.005445 15.20839 73.45732 15.20839
X Variable 2 16.60351 1.82502 9.097713 1.71E-07 12.71357 20.49344 12.71357
X Variable 3 0.906879 0.292208 3.103537 0.007265 0.284052 1.529706 0.284052
Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
276.6009181 -70.9922 276.6009
25.89463918 17.0235 25.89464
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y Residuals

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y
1 658.7894
2 798.8153
3 835.8809
4 535.2372
5 448.7506
6 757.6312
7 769.9864
8 774.1048
9 844.1177
10 910.0123
11 658.7894
12 1050.038
13 1181.827
14 1091.222
15 1074.749
16 1210.656
17 1181.827
18 1214.774
19 1264.195

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

Residuals
-24.1126
-47.0678
11.05847
52.61131
-17.7001
-61.5403
197.6702
-41.1654
-19.6329
131.1494
-33.5167
27.20431
88.86981
-223.364
-135.304
-36.1106
-35.8777
-7.98654
174.8148

y fata x4x5
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.948443
R Square 0.899544
Adjusted R Square
0.886987
Standard Error
89.58614
Observations
19
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2 1149868 574933.9 71.63682 1.04E-08
16 128410.8 8025.676
18 1278279

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%
Intercept
30.43987 77.38621 0.39335 0.699253 -133.612
X Variable 1 19.72507 1.958824 10.06985 2.49E-08 15.57255
X Variable 2 0.929284 0.368984 2.518494 0.022809 0.147073

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y
1 625.6785
2 769.9058
3 816.6391
4 505.8678

Residuals
8.998248
-18.1583
30.30033
81.98072

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
194.4912999 -133.612 194.4913
23.87759421 15.57255 23.87759
1.711494184 0.147073 1.711494

715.2325
779.1584
905.2779
553.9866
322.0643
716.6267
951.96
824.5768
841.3617
962.1733
594.8976
1075.215
1227.771
960.812
957.4644
1212.195
1153.165
1219.559
1287.907

-80.5557
-27.411
-58.3385
33.86188
108.9862
-20.5358
15.69658
-91.6374
-16.8768
78.98833
30.37512
2.027776
42.92549
-92.9534
-18.02
-37.6494
-7.21561
-12.7706
151.103

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

405.5031
761.6553
943.3339
874.3538
839.3698
910.4622
624.4301
1043.989
1190.811
1054.023
1048.511
1204.647
1140.517
1212.713
1288.995

25.5474
-65.5644
24.32271
-141.414
-14.885
130.6994
0.842639
33.25372
79.88641
-186.164
-109.067
-30.1018
5.43289
-5.92531
150.0154

y fata de x2x4
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.950297
R Square 0.903065
Adjusted R Square
0.890948
Standard Error
88.00232
Observations
19
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2 1154368
577184 74.52913
7.8E-09
16 123910.5 7744.409
18 1278279

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%
Intercept
-418.674 207.347 -2.01919 0.060546
-858.23
X Variable 1 45.33502 16.94927 2.674748 0.016608 9.40418
X Variable 2 18.22419 2.169741 8.399246 2.93E-07 13.62454

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y
1 749.5515
2 807.5643
3 926.049
4 583.7197
5 362.3594
6 711.6839
7 783.0813
8 725.6742
9 846.0376

Residuals
-114.875
-55.8168
-79.1096
4.128807
68.69106
-15.593
184.5753
7.26516
-21.5527

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
20.88255641
-858.23 20.88256
81.26585374 9.40418 81.26585
22.82383711 13.62454 22.82384

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

962.9033 78.25827
627.7422 -2.46949
1081.821 -4.57837
1219.845 50.85189
994.9873 -127.129
980.997 -41.5525
1218.226 -43.6806
1193.743 -47.7936
1221.724 -14.9358
1263.695 175.3156

y in fct x2x4x5
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.970036
R Square
0.94097
Adjusted R Square
0.929164
Standard Error
70.92589
Observations
19
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 1202821 400940.5 79.70219 1.92E-09
15 75457.23 5030.482
18 1278279

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
-477.766 168.1935 -2.84057 0.012401 -836.262 -119.2697217 -836.262
-119.27
X Variable 1 44.33286 13.66416 3.244463 0.005445 15.20839 73.45731882 15.20839 73.45732
X Variable 2 16.60351 1.82502 9.097713 1.71E-07 12.71357 20.49344495 12.71357 20.49344
X Variable 3 0.906879 0.292208 3.103537 0.007265 0.284052 1.529706441 0.284052 1.529706

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y
1 715.2325
2 779.1584
3 905.2779
4 553.9866
5 322.0643
6 716.6267
7
951.96
8 824.5768
9 841.3617
10 962.1733
11 594.8976
12 1075.215

Residuals
-80.5557
-27.411
-58.3385
33.86188
108.9862
-20.5358
15.69658
-91.6374
-16.8768
78.98833
30.37512
2.027776

13
14
15
16
17
18
19

1227.771 42.92549
960.812 -92.9534
957.4644
-18.02
1212.195 -37.6494
1153.165 -7.21561
1219.559 -12.7706
1287.907 151.103

15.35
14.01
15.93
14.01
10.75
12.67
14.01
12.67
14.01
15.35
12.67
15.35
15.93
12.67
12.67
15.35
15.35
15.35
15.35

90.59
107.28
120.91
83.87
61.41
139.14
322.42
244.12
137.22
148.55
89.24
153.73
181.36
123.79
134.15
167.74
127.24
172.34
205.55

634.68
751.75
846.94
587.85
431.05
696.09
967.66
732.94
824.48
1041.16
625.27
1077.24
1270.70
867.86
939.44
1174.55
1145.95
1206.79
1439.01

25.91
32.43
34.16
20.15
16.12
30.52
31.09
31.28
34.55
37.62
25.91
44.14
50.28
46.06
45.29
51.63
50.28
51.82
54.12

y in fct de x2x5
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.784377
R Square 0.615247
Adjusted R Square
0.567152
Standard Error
175.3251
Observations
19
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2 786456.5 393228.2 12.79253 0.00048
16 491822.1 30738.88
18 1278279

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%
Intercept
-896.319 399.9094 -2.24131 0.039539 -1744.09
X Variable 1 109.8684 28.70212 3.827886 0.001483 49.02266
X Variable 2 1.667553 0.692122 2.409333 0.028387 0.200319

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
-48.5490033 -1744.09
-48.549
170.7142034 49.02266 170.7142
3.134786982 0.200319 3.134787

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y
1 941.6065
2 821.8485
3 1055.43
4 782.8042
5 386.9004
6 727.3734
7 1180.608
8 902.4328
9 871.774
10 1038.257
11 644.1642
12 1046.898
13 1156.241
14 701.7705
15 719.0525
16 1070.261
17 1002.733
18 1077.942
19 1133.308

Residuals
-306.93
-70.101
-208.49
-194.956
44.1501
-31.2825
-212.952
-169.493
-47.2892
2.904457
-18.8914
30.34431
114.4562
166.088
220.392
104.2847
143.2163
128.8463
305.7024

x4 in fct de x2x5
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.605914
R Square 0.367132
Adjusted R Square
0.288023
Standard Error9.71577
Observations
19
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2 876.1587 438.0793 4.640858 0.025734
16 1510.339 94.39619
18 2386.498

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%
Intercept
-25.2087 22.16128 -1.13751 0.272073 -72.1885
X Variable 1 3.947092 1.590549 2.481591 0.024567 0.575278
X Variable 2 0.045814 0.038354 1.19449 0.249694 -0.03549

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y Residuals

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
21.77108302 -72.1885 21.77108
7.318906114 0.575278 7.318906
0.127121911 -0.03549 0.127122

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

ryx4.x2x5
erori

39.5432
35.00549
43.20499
33.93279
20.02617
31.1624
44.86199
35.97195
36.37714
42.19856
28.87633
42.43596
45.97466
30.459
30.9338
43.07782
41.22258
43.28884
44.80996

-0.77332
0.920096

-13.6341
-2.57115
-9.04338
-13.7813
-3.90496
-0.64725
-13.7711
-4.68913
-1.83168
-4.5824
-2.96724
1.705455
4.308167
15.60161
14.35913
8.548444
9.060247
8.529341
9.311252

Upper 95.0%
-119.27
73.45732
20.49344
1.529706

y
431.05
587.85
634.68
625.27
696.09
967.66
732.94
751.75
1077.24
939.44
867.86
1270.70
1145.95
1174.55
1206.79
1439.01

x2

x4

10.75
14.01
15.35
12.67
12.67
14.01
12.67
14.01
15.35
12.67
12.67
15.93
15.35
15.35
15.35
15.35

16.12
20.15
25.91
25.91
30.52
31.09
31.28
32.43
44.14
45.29
46.06
50.28
50.28
51.63
51.82
54.12

x5
61.41
83.87
90.59
89.24
139.14
322.42
244.12
107.28
153.73
134.15
123.79
181.36
127.24
167.74
172.34
205.55

SUMMARY OUTPUT

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.965529
R Square 0.932246
Adjusted R Square
0.881431
Standard Error
53.09846
Observations
8

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.972272
R Square 0.945312
Adjusted R Square
0.904296
Standard Error
56.12507
Observations
8

ANOVA

ANOVA
df

Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 155174.5 51724.84 18.34575 0.00841
4 11277.78 2819.446
7 166452.3

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
-82.3938 193.7827 -0.42519 0.692577 -620.421 455.6333 -620.421 455.6333
X Variable 127.76121 15.9926 1.735878 0.157596 -16.6414 72.16379 -16.6414 72.16379
X Variable 2 9.37744 4.738874 1.978833 0.11896 -3.77978 22.53466 -3.77978 22.53466
X Variable 31.000651 0.280662 3.565325 0.023474 0.221409 1.779894 0.221409 1.779894

F*=

0.895055
6.388233

F*<F teoretic, modelul este homoscedastic

Heteroscedasticitate

df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 217799.7 72599.92 23.04742 0.005504
4 12600.1 3150.024
7 230399.8

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept
-792.91 348.5359 -2.27497
X Variable 144.72355 22.16169 2.018056
X Variable 216.67919 8.632982 1.932031
X Variable 32.860192 1.131824 2.527063

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
0.085258
-1760.6 174.7806
-1760.6 174.7806
0.113749 -16.8072 106.2543 -16.8072 106.2543
0.125522 -7.28981 40.64819 -7.28981 40.64819
0.064867 -0.28226 6.00264 -0.28226 6.00264

x2

x4

Dummy

15.35

25.91

0.00

751.75

14.01

32.43

0.00

846.94

15.93

34.16

1.00

587.85

14.01

20.15

0.00

431.05

10.75

16.12

0.00

696.09

12.67

30.52

0.00

967.66

14.01

31.09

1.00

732.94

12.67

31.28

0.00

824.48

14.01

34.55

0.00

1041.16

15.35

37.62

0.00

625.27

12.67

25.91

0.00

1077.24

15.35

44.14

0.00

1270.70

15.93

50.28

0.00

867.86

12.67

46.06

0.00

939.44

12.67

45.29

1.00

1174.55

15.35

51.63

0.00

1145.95

15.35

50.28

0.00

1206.79

15.35

51.82

0.00

1439.01

15.35

54.12

1.00

Octombrie 2005
Noiembrie 2005
Decembrie 2005
Ianuarie 2006
Februarie 2006
Martie 2006
Aprilie 2006
Mai 2006
Iunie 2006
Iulie 2006
Augut 2006
Septembrie 2006
Octombrie 2006
Noiembrie 2006
Decembrie 2006
Ianuarie 2007
Februarie 2007
Martie 2007
Aprilie 2007

Cifra de afaceri a SC Colhida SRL


1600.00
1400.00
CA (mii RON)

y
634.68

1200.00
1000.00
800.00

CA

600.00

400.00
200.00
0.00
1

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

luna

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.950297
R Square 0.903065
Adjusted R Square
0.890948
Standard Error
88.00232
Observations
19
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.957943
R Square 0.917655
Adjusted R Square
0.901186
Standard Error83.7694
Observations
19

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
-418.674 207.347 -2.01919 0.060546
-858.23 20.88256
-858.23 20.88256
X Variable 1 45.33502 16.94927 2.674748 0.016608 9.40418 81.26585 9.40418 81.26585
X Variable 2 18.22419 2.169741 8.399246 2.93E-07 13.62454 22.82384 13.62454 22.82384

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept

SS
MS
3 1173019 391006.3
15 105259.7 7017.313
18 1278279

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
-410.709 197.4341 -2.08023

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2 1154368
577184 74.52913
7.8E-09
16 123910.5 7744.409
18 1278279

F
Significance F
55.72023217
2.3E-08

P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
0.055062731 -831.529 10.11223 -831.529 10.11223

X Variable 1 44.76021 16.13786 2.773616


X Variable 2 17.79201 2.08232 8.544324
X Variable 3 77.9624 47.8213 1.630286

0.014195069 10.36318 79.15724 10.36318 79.15724


3.79301E-07 13.35365 22.23037 13.35365 22.23037
0.123854986 -23.9663 179.8911 -23.9663 179.8911

2.13145 nu infl
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Residuals
-87.817
-41.7113
-141.117
12.92597
73.87104
-3.08916
116.1378
20.10081
-6.53483
95.37547
8.043752
15.3589
73.77429
-67.9064
-25.6244
6.508591
-15.2021
8.319204
116.6035

Testarea autocorelatiei erorilor


150
100
50
0

et

ObservationPredicted Y
1 737.4938
2 793.4588
3 988.0563
4 574.9225
5 357.1795
6 699.1801
7 847.5188
8 712.8386
9 831.0197
10 945.7861
11 617.229
12 1061.884
13 1196.923
14 975.765
15 1040.069
16 1195.054
17 1171.152
18 1198.469
19 1317.407

-50

10

11

12

13

14

-100
-150
-200
timp

met Durbin Watson

(et-et-1)
46.10573
-99.4056
154.0428
60.94507
-76.9602
119.227
-96.037
-26.6356
101.9103
-87.3317
7.31515
58.41539
-141.681
42.28198
32.13303
-21.7107
23.52135

^2
2125.739
9881.468
23729.19
3714.301
5922.871
14215.07
9223.105
709.4573
10385.71
7626.829
53.51141
3412.358
20073.42
1787.766
1032.532
471.3563
553.2541

et^2
7711.829
1739.831
19913.97
167.0807
5456.93
9.542893
13487.99
404.0427
42.70398
9096.481
64.70195
235.8959
5442.647
4611.281
656.6118
42.36176
231.1053

DW=

1.690031

0.967

1.685

2.314

3.033

15

16

17

18

19

108.2843 11725.49 69.20916


-116.603 13596.37 13596.37
140239.8 82980.59

Previziune
Octombrie 2005
Noiembrie 2005
Decembrie 2005
Ianuarie 2006
Februarie 2006
Martie 2006
Aprilie 2006
Mai 2006
Iunie 2006
Iulie 2006
Augut 2006
Septembrie 2006
Octombrie 2006
Noiembrie 2006
Decembrie 2006
Ianuarie 2007
Februarie 2007
Martie 2007
Aprilie 2007
Mai 2007
Iunie 2007
Iulie 2007

x4

y est

634.68

25.91

0.00

647.48

25.91

0.00

751.75

32.43

0.00

784.30

32.43

0.00

846.94

34.16

1.00

901.38

34.16

1.00

587.85

20.15

0.00

526.75

20.15

0.00

431.05

16.12

0.00

442.24

16.12

0.00

696.09

30.52

0.00

744.06

30.52

0.00

967.66

31.09

1.00

836.99

31.09

1.00

732.94

31.28

0.00

760.16

31.28

0.00

824.48

34.55

0.00

828.57

34.55

0.00

1041.16

37.62

0.00

892.95

37.62

0.00

625.27

25.91

0.00

647.48

25.91

0.00

1077.24

44.14

0.00

1029.78

44.14

0.00

1270.70

50.28

0.00

1158.55

50.28

0.00

867.86

46.06

0.00

1070.02

46.06

0.00

939.44

45.29

1.00

1134.78

45.29

1.00

1174.55

51.63

0.00

1186.72

51.63

0.00

1145.95

50.28

0.00

1158.55

50.28

0.00

1206.79
1439.01

51.82
54.12

0.00
1.00

1190.75
1319.90

1
1

51.82
54.12

0.00
1.00

1024.55

55

1257.46

1490.38

55

1082.56

58

1320.37

1558.18

58

1120.88

60

1362.31

1603.73

60

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.93564068
R Square
0.87542349
Adjusted R Square
0.85985143
Standard Error
99.7633106
Observations
19
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
2 1119035 559517.57
16 159243.5 9952.7181
18 1278279

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat


104.207775 80.02309 1.3022213
20.9682895 2.071197 10.123753
80.8602667 56.93812 1.4201428

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Predicted Y
647.477094
784.300478
901.378699
526.750579
442.242018
744.058306
836.991224
760.155175
828.566867
892.954342

Residuals
-12.8003
-32.553
-54.4393
61.09791
-11.1915
-47.9674
130.6653
-27.2158
-4.08202
148.2073

F
Significance F
56.21756
5.8E-08

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
0.211276 -65.4336 273.8491 -65.4336 273.8491
2.31E-08 16.57755 25.35903 16.57755 25.35903
0.174759 -39.8432 201.5637 -39.8432 201.5637

11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

647.477094 -22.2044
1029.77773 47.4647
1158.55268 112.1443
1070.0199 -202.161
1134.7833 -195.339
1186.7222 -12.1767
1158.55268 -12.6032
1190.74641 16.04147
1319.89729 119.1128

X'
1
25.90909091
0

1
1
1
32.4343434 34.16162 20.151515
0
1
0

19
713.3636364
4

713.363636
4
29170.0597 164.6667
164.666667
4

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
16.12121 30.51515 31.09091 31.28283 34.54545 37.61616 25.90909 44.14141 50.28283 46.06061 45.29293 51.62626 50.28283 51.81818 54.12121
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1

X' X

Inversa
0.643411665 -0.01576676 0.005653
-0.015766763 0.00043102 -0.00198
0.005653404 -0.00197705 0.325735

X' n+h
1
25.90909091
0
Xn+1(X' X)-1
-0.223760289

1
1
1
32.4343434 34.16162 20.151515
0
1
0

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
16.12121 30.51515 31.09091 31.28283 34.54545 37.61616 25.90909 44.14141 50.28283 46.06061 45.29293 51.62626 50.28283 51.81818 54.12121
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1

0.00793955

0.009233

1
55
0
0.212914692

-0.10308

-0.271061
1
58
0

1.21291469

0.2644312

-0.10902

-0.30259 0.010095
1
60
0

1.264431

0.303086 1.303086

2.119905299

2.1199053

2.119905

232.9176724 En+1

237.81263 En+2

241.4203 En+3

-0.11297

1
55
0

1
58
0

1
60
0