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Limitele VaR Criticile aduse modelului. Avantajele pe care le prezinta mbunatatiri - Modelarea volatilitatii prin diferite modele Garch Importanta distributiilor in cadrul acestei abordari Condiii necesare pentru validitatea unui model VaR Studiu empiric pe 3 tipuri de piee bursiere
VaR o posibila cauza pentru criza? Comitetul Basel a propus inlocuirea lui cu ES
the committee argues that expected shortfall accounts for tail risk in a more comprehensive manner
While expected shortfall accounts for tail risk in a more comprehensive manner than VAR, I believe its advantages in this regard are overstated and its severe shortcomings are being ignored by the committee. David Rowe is president of
David M Rowe Risk Advisory, a risk advisory consulting firm
Exista doua argumente puternice in defavoarea aplicarii ES: 1. The first is that it is virtually impossible to back-test. 2. Only a messy, qualitative, judgmental and somewhat unsatisfying process of grappling institutionally with potential crisis scenarios and their impact can set the stage for prompt action when low-probability, high-impact events take place
Mai flexibila , poate surprinde atat distributii cu cozi groase cat si distributii cu cozi subtiri
Skewed T-Student
Metodologie (I)
Validarea unui model VaR se face prin verificarea a 2 condiii
1. Unconditional coverage Testul Kupiec (1995)
atunci,
N3 N4 N1 N2 = sau = N1 + N3 N2 + N4 N1 + N3 N2 + N4
Metodologie (II)
Pot exista mai multe modele VaR ce satisfac ambele teste Necesitatea clasificrii
Se alege modelul care minimizeaz funcia pierderii n cazul n care pierderea depete VaR-ul
(i) 1,t+1
(i)
sau
2,t+1 =
(i)
yt+1
2 (i) ESt+1|t
0,
Metodologie (III)
Indicatori de eficien
MAE = T 1
t=1 T
1,t
(i)
Se alege modelul care minimizeaz funcia pierderii n cazul n care pierderea depete VaR-ul
yt+1 ESt+1|t , dac VaR ul e depit 0, altfel
(i)
(i) 1,t+1
sau
2,t+1 =
(i)
yt+1
2 (i) ESt+1|t
0,