An

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

X1
Variabil
independent 1

X2
Variabil
independent 2

X3

Variabil
independent 3

X4
Variabil
independent 4

X5
Variabil
independent 5

X6
Variabil
independent 6

X7
Variabil
independent 7

X8
Variabil
independent 8

X9
X10
Y
Variabil
Variabil
Variabil
independent 9 independent 10 dependent

MODEL DE REGRESIE LINIAR MULTIPL

(mil )
Export RO

An

(mil )
Importuri n RO
3490
3359
4178
5186
6117
6453
7469
7400
7977
11273
12722
14675
15614
18935
22255
25850
29549
11911.88

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
media

lei RON/
Curs valutar
4740
4819
5569
5994
7949
9129
9991
10528
9927
14235
17383
18881
21201
26281
32568
40746
51322

0.0088
0.0400
0.0885
0.1967
0.2630
0.3863
0.8091
0.9989
1.6296
1.9956
2.6027
3.1255
3.7556
4.0532
3.6234
3.5245
3.3730

REGRESIE 1
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.998569067
0.997140181
0.996186908
500.7431943
17

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

coeficientul de corelaie multipl

coeficientul de determinaie
raport=eroare*100/medie

variaiile componentelor
SS
4
1049129309
12
3008924.96
16
1052138234

valori estimate a param.

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept
985.5242313
743.9348096
Importuri n RO
0.401658433
0.117988812
Curs valutar
1010.549522
352.4369774
PIB RO
0.881598912
1.426539371
Nr firme cu activitate de comert
0.006691256
0.006888649
s a < |a|
estimator corect
estimator corect

s b < |b|

Test Student pt "a"

1. Ipoteza nul:
a=0
2. Stabilim alpha:
0.05
3. Tc=Tstat
1.324745419
4. Tt
2.119905299
5. Tc<Tt

Acceptm Ho, "a" nu e

parametru semnificativ

estimator corect

s c < |c|

nu e estimator corect

s d > |d|

nu e estimator corect

s e > |e|
Test Student pt "b"
1. Ipoteza nul:
2. Stabilim alpha:
3. Tc=Tstat
4. Tt
5. Tc>Tt

Y=a0+a1X1+a2X2+..+anXn
Model propus: Exp=a+b*Imp+c*Cval+d*PIB+e*Nrfirmecom
Model validat: Exp=b*Imp+c*Cval

IPL
mld lei - RON
PIB RO
2.20
6.03
20.04
49.77
72.14
108.92
252.93
373.80
545.73
803.77
1167.69
1514.75
1975.65
2464.69
2881.76
3446.51
4047.09

nr firma
Nr firme cu activitate de comert
87800
131929
157074
160731
173955
170135
226101
184109
193512
202821
192579
177660
179304
191196
200380
205946
238492

legtura ntre exporturi i cel 4 variabile factoriale este foarte puternic (>0,9)
99,7% din variaia Exporturilor se datoreaz influenei cumulate a variaiei Importurilor, cursului valutar, PIB i numrul firmelor
4.20% < 10%

variane (SS/df)
F calculat
MS
F
262282327.2
1046.017421
250743.7466

t calculat
t Stat
1.324745419
3.404207797
2.867319795
0.617998304
0.971345104

funcia este estimat corect

Significance F
3.82E-15

Probab. ca parametrii s nu fie estimatori coreci

P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
0.209929837
-635.3704744
2606.418937
0.0052289
0.144582896
0.658733969
0.014160094
242.6553145
1778.443729
0.548126249
-2.226563368
3.989761193
0.35054907
-0.008317821
0.021700333
"a" corect cu prob 80%
"b" corect cu prob 99,5%

F tabelar
F calc > F tab

Lower 95.0%
-635.3704744
0.144582896
242.6553145
-2.226563368
-0.008317821

"c" corect cu prob 98,6%

"d" corect cu prob 45%, dar sub 70%
"e" corect cu prob 65%, dar sub 70%

est Student pt "b"

b=0
0.05
3.404207797
2.119905299
Respingem Ho, "b" e
parametru semnificativ

Test Student pt "c"

1. Ipoteza nul:
c=0
2. Stabilim alpha:
0.05
3. Tc=Tstat
2.867319795
4. Tt
2.119905299
5. Tc>Tt

Respingem Ho, "c" e

parametru semnificativ

ului valutar, PIB i numrul firmelor cu activitate de comer exterior.

2.333483627
influena celor 4 variabile asupra Exporturilor este semnificativ

Upper 95.0%
2606.418937
0.658733969
1778.443729
3.989761193
0.021700333

Test Student pt "d"

1. Ipoteza nul:
d=0
2. Stabilim alpha:
0.05
3. Tc=Tstat
0.617998304
4. Tt
2.119905299
5. Tc<Tt

Acceptm Ho, "d" nu e

parametru semnificativ

Test Student pt "e"

1. Ipoteza nula:
e=0
2. Stabilim alpha:
0.05
3. Tc=Tstat
0.971345104
4. Tt
2.119905299
5. Tc<Tt

Acceptm Ho, "e" nu e

parametru semnificativ